RESUMO
BACKGROUND: There is a global tendency to emphasize the prevention and early diagnosis of diseases that have a great impact on public health. Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a prevalence affecting 1.5-2% of the general population. Certain variables of the P wave allow us to identify and stratify patients at risk of developing AF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is an observational, descriptive, and longitudinal study to determine the applicability of the electrocardiographic (ECG) morphology, voltage, and P wave duration (MVP) risk score to predict the development of AF in consecutive patients with systemic hypertension (SH) in an initial follow-up of 12 months. RESULTS: Initially, 104 patients were included, of whom 12 died during follow-up and 17 did not attend subsequent checkups during the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore, they were excluded. The study patients were 75, of whom AF was detected in 25 patients (33%). The average duration of the P wave was 120 ± 26 ms, the average voltage was 0.1 ± 0.5 Mv. The high-risk MVP ECG score had an [area under the curve, 0.69; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.59-0.79] and demonstrated a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100%, a negative predictive value of 76%, and a sensitivity of 40% for predicting the development of AF. CONCLUSIONS: The present study establishes for the first time that SH patients who possess a high-risk MVP ECG score have a significantly higher incidence of developing AF. The high-risk MVP Score has a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100% and a high negative predictive value with a moderate sensitivity for the prediction of the development of AF in SH patients.