Assessing the utility of pregnant women as a sentinel surveillance population for malaria in Geita, Tanzania, 2019 - 2021.

OBJECTIVES: Estimates of malaria burden and intervention uptake in Africa are primarily based on household surveys. However, their expense and infrequency limit their utility. We investigated whether data collected during antenatal care (ANC) can provide relevant information for decision-makers. METHODS: Malaria test positivity rates and questionnaire data from ANC attendees at 39 health facilities were compared to questionnaire data and positivity rates among children from two cross-sectional surveys in the facilities' corresponding catchment areas. RESULTS: Trends in parasitemia among ANC attendees were predictive of trends in parasitemia among children at the council level (mean absolute error 6.0%). Primigravid ANC attendees had the lowest rates of net ownership (modeled odds ratio [OR] 0.28, 95% CI 0.19-0.40) and use (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.42-0.79). ANC attendees reported higher levels of care-seeking (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.48-2.14), malaria testing (OR 4.16, 95% CI 3.44-5.04), and treatment for children with fever (OR 7.66, 95% CI 4.89-11.98) compared to women surveyed in households, raising concerns about social desirability bias disproportionately impacting ANC surveys. CONCLUSION: ANC surveillance is an effective strategy for tracking trends in malaria burden. More work is required to elucidate the value of administering questionnaires to ANC attendees.

Using antenatal care as a platform for malaria surveillance data collection: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: While many malaria-endemic countries have health management information systems that can measure and report malaria trends in a timely manner, these routine systems have limitations. Periodic community cross-sectional household surveys are used to estimate malaria prevalence and intervention coverage but lack geographic granularity and are resource intensive. Incorporating malaria testing for all women at their first antenatal care (ANC) visit (i.e., ANC1) could provide a more timely and granular source of data for monitoring trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage. This article describes a protocol designed to assess if ANC-based surveillance could be a pragmatic tool to monitor malaria. METHODS: This is an observational, cross-sectional study conducted in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia. Pregnant women attending ANC1 in selected health facilities will be tested for malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test and administered a brief questionnaire to capture key indicators of malaria control intervention coverage and care-seeking behaviour. In each location, contemporaneous cross-sectional household surveys will be leveraged to assess correlations between estimates obtained using each method, and the use of ANC data as a tool to track trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage will be validated. RESULTS: This study will assess malaria prevalence at ANC1 aggregated at health facility and district levels, and by gravidity relative to current pregnancy (i.e., gravida 1, gravida 2, and gravida 3 +). ANC1 malaria prevalence will be presented as monthly trends. Additionally, correlation between ANC1 and household survey-derived estimates of malaria prevalence, bed net ownership and use, and care-seeking will be assessed. CONCLUSION: ANC1-based surveillance has the potential to provide a cost-effective, localized measure of malaria prevalence that is representative of the general population and useful for tracking monthly changes in parasite prevalence, as well as providing population-representative estimates of intervention coverage and care-seeking behavior. This study will evaluate the representativeness of these measures and collect information on operational feasibility, usefulness for programmatic decision-making, and potential for scale-up of malaria ANC1 surveillance.

Epidemiologic Features of the Monkeypox Outbreak and the Public Health Response - United States, May 17-October 6, 2022.

On May 17, 2022, the Massachusetts Department of Health announced the first suspected case of monkeypox associated with the global outbreak in a U.S. resident. On May 23, 2022, CDC launched an emergency response (1,2). CDC's emergency response focused on surveillance, laboratory testing, medical countermeasures, and education. Medical countermeasures included rollout of a national JYNNEOS vaccination strategy, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issuance of an emergency use authorization to allow for intradermal administration of JYNNEOS, and use of tecovirimat for patients with, or at risk for, severe monkeypox. During May 17-October 6, 2022, a total of 26,384 probable and confirmed* U.S. monkeypox cases were reported to CDC. Daily case counts peaked during mid-to-late August. Among 25,001 of 25,569 (98%) cases in adults with information on gender identity,† 23,683 (95%) occurred in cisgender men. Among 13,997 cisgender men with information on recent sexual or close intimate contact,§ 10,440 (75%) reported male-to-male sexual contact (MMSC) ≤21 days preceding symptom onset. Among 21,211 (80%) cases in persons with information on race and ethnicity,¶ 6,879 (32%), 6,628 (31%), and 6,330 (30%) occurred in non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black), Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic), and non-Hispanic White (White) persons, respectively. Among 5,017 (20%) cases in adults with information on HIV infection status, 2,876 (57%) had HIV infection. Prevention efforts, including vaccination, should be prioritized among persons at highest risk within groups most affected by the monkeypox outbreak, including gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM); transgender, nonbinary, and gender-diverse persons; racial and ethnic minority groups; and persons who are immunocompromised, including persons with advanced HIV infection or newly diagnosed HIV infection.

Ecological and Anthropogenic Spatial Gradients Shape Patterns of Dispersal of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Uganda.

Using georeferenced phylogenetic trees, phylogeography allows researchers to elucidate interactions between environmental heterogeneities and patterns of infectious disease spread. Concordant with the increasing availability of pathogen genetic sequence data, there is a growing need for tools to test epidemiological hypotheses in this field. In this study, we apply tools traditionally used in ecology to elucidate the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Uganda. We analyze FMDV serotype O genetic sequences and their corresponding spatiotemporal metadata from a cross-sectional study of cattle. We apply step selection function (SSF) models, typically used to study wildlife habitat selection, to viral phylogenies to show that FMDV is more likely to be found in areas of low rainfall. Next, we use a novel approach, a resource gradient function (RGF) model, to elucidate characteristics of viral source and sink areas. An RGF model applied to our data reveals that areas of high cattle density and areas near livestock markets may serve as sources of FMDV dissemination in Uganda, and areas of low rainfall serve as viral sinks that experience frequent reintroductions. Our results may help to inform risk-based FMDV control strategies in Uganda. More broadly, these tools advance the phylogenetic toolkit, as they may help to uncover patterns of spread of other organisms for which genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal metadata exist.

Phylogeographic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O dispersal and associated drivers in East Africa.

The continued endemicity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in East Africa has significant implications for livestock production and poverty reduction, yet its complex epidemiology in endemic settings remains poorly understood. Identifying FMDV dispersal routes and drivers of transmission is key to improved control strategies. Environmental heterogeneity and anthropogenic drivers (e.g., demand for animal products) can impact viral spread by influencing host movements. Here, we utilized FMDV serotype O VP1 genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal data in order to (i) infer the recent dispersal history, and (II) investigate the impact of external factors (cattle density, human population density, proximity to livestock markets, and drought) on dispersal velocity, location, and direction of FMDV serotype O in East Africa. We identified statistical evidence of long-distance transmission events, and we found that FMDV serotype O tends to remain circulating in areas of high cattle density, high human population density, and in close proximity to livestock markets. The latter two findings highlight the influence of anthropogenic factors on FMDV serotype O spread in this region. These findings contribute to the understanding of FMDV epidemiology in East Africa and can help guide improved control measures.

Molecular detection and phylogenetic analysis of lumpy skin disease virus from outbreaks in Uganda 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious viral disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus. LSD has substantial economic implications, with infection resulting in permanent damage to the skin of affected animals which lowers their commercial value. In Uganda, LSD is endemic and cases of the disease are frequently reported to government authorities. This study was undertaken to molecularly characterize lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) strains that have been circulating in Uganda between 2017 and 2018. Secondly, the study aimed to determine the phylogenetic relatedness of Ugandan LSDV sequences with published sequences, available in GenBank. RESULTS: A total of 7 blood samples and 16 skin nodule biopsies were screened for LSDV using PCR to confirm presence of LSDV nucleic acids. PCR positive samples were then characterised by amplifying the GPCR gene. These amplified genes were sequenced and phylogenetic trees were constructed. Out of the 23 samples analysed, 15 were positive for LSDV by PCR (65.2%). The LSDV GPCR sequences analysed contained the unique signatures of LSDV (A11, T12, T34, S99, and P199) which further confirmed their identity. Sequence comparison with vaccine strains revealed a 12 bp deletion unique to Ugandan outbreak strains. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the LSDV sequences from this study clustered closely with sequences from neighboring East African countries and with LSDV strains from recent outbreaks in Europe. It was noted that the sequence diversity amongst LSDV strains from Africa was higher than diversity from Eurasia. CONCLUSION: The LSDV strains circulating in Uganda were closely related with sequences from neighboring African countries and from Eurasia. Comparison of the GPCR gene showed that outbreak strains differed from vaccine strains. This information is necessary to understand LSDV molecular epidemiology and to contribute knowledge towards the development of control strategies by the Government of Uganda.

Spatial distribution and risk factors for foot and mouth disease virus in Uganda: Opportunities for strategic surveillance.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has a substantial impact on cattle populations in Uganda, causing short- and long-term production losses and hampering local and international trade. Although FMDV has persisted in Uganda for at least 60 years, its epidemiology there and in other endemic settings remains poorly understood. Here, we utilized a large-scale cross-sectional study of cattle to elucidate the dynamics of FMDV spread in Uganda. Sera samples (n = 14,439) from 211 herds were analyzed for non-structural protein reactivity, an indication of past FMDV exposure. Serological results were used to determine spatial patterns, and a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model was used to identify risk factors for FMDV infection. Spatial clustering of the disease was evident, with higher risk demonstrated near international borders. Additionally, high cattle density, low annual rainfall, and pastoralism were associated with increased likelihood of FMD seropositivity. These results provide insights into the complex epidemiology of FMDV in Uganda and will help inform refined control strategies in Uganda and other FMDV-endemic settings.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for lumpy skin disease virus seropositivity in cattle in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary cattle disease caused by a Capripoxvirus of the family Poxviridae. In Uganda, documented information on the epidemiology of the disease is rare and there is no nationwide control plan, yet LSD is endemic. This study set out to investigate the seroprevalence of lumpy skin disease and determine the risk factors for LSD seropositivity, by carrying out a cross-sectional study in 21 districts of Uganda. RESULTS: A total of 2,263 sera samples were collected from 65 cattle herds and an indirect ELISA was used to screen for lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) antibodies. We used univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression models to identify risk factors for LSD seropositivity. The overall animal and herd-level seroprevalences were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.0-9.3) and 72.3% (95% CI: 70.0-80.3), respectively. Animal-level seroprevalence in Central region (OR = 2.13, p = 0.05, 95% CI: 1.10-4.64) was significantly different from the Northern region (Reference) and Western region (OR = 0.84, p = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.39-1.81). Management type, sex, age, mean annual precipitation > 1000 mm, and drinking from communal water sources were statistically significant risk factors for occurrence of anti-LSDV antibodies in cattle. Breed, region, herd size, contact with buffalo and other wildlife and introduction of new cattle did not have a statistically significant association with being positive for LSDV. CONCLUSION: We report a high herd-level LSDV seroprevalence in Uganda with a moderate animal-level seroprevalence. Cattle with the highest risk of LSD infection in Uganda are those in fenced farms, females > 25 months old, in an area with a mean annual rainfall > 1000 mm, and drinking from a communal water source.

Serological and phylogenetic characterization of foot and mouth disease viruses from Uganda during cross-sectional surveillance study in cattle between 2014 and 2017.

Here, we report the results of a cross-sectional study designed to monitor the circulation and genetic diversity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Uganda between 2014 and 2017. In this study, 13,614 sera and 2,068 oral-pharyngeal fluid samples were collected from cattle and analysed to determine FMDV seroprevalence, circulating serotypes and their phylogenetic relationships. Circulation of FMDV was evidenced by the detection of antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMDV or viral isolations in all districts sampled in Uganda. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of FMDV serotypes A, O, SAT 1 and SAT 2. FMDVs belonging to serotype O, isolated from 21 districts, were the most prevalent and were classified into six lineages within two East African topotypes, namely EA-1 and EA-2. Serotype A viruses belonging to the Africa G-I topotype were isolated from two districts. SAT 1 viruses grouped within topotypes I and IV and SAT 2 viruses within topotypes VII, IV and X were isolated from six and four districts respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of SAT 1 and SAT 2 sequences from cattle clustered with historical sequences from African buffalo, indicating possible interspecies transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface. In some cases, Uganda viruses also shared similarities to viral strains recovered from other regions in East Africa. This 3-year study period provides knowledge about the geographical distribution of FMDV serotypes isolated in Uganda and insights into the genetic diversity of the multiple serotypes circulating in the country. Knowledge of circulating FMDV viruses will assist in antigenic matching studies to devise improved FMDV control strategies with vaccination and vaccine strain selection for Uganda.

Spatial and temporal distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Uganda (2002-2016).

BACKGROUND: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating transboundary viral disease of cattle which causes significant loss in production. Although this disease has been reported in Uganda and throughout East Africa, there is almost no information about its epidemiology, spatial or spatio-temporal distribution. We carried out a retrospective study on the epidemiology of LSD in Uganda between the years 2002 and 2016, using data on reported outbreaks collected monthly by the central government veterinary administration. Descriptive statistics were computed on frequency of outbreaks, number of cases, vaccinations and deaths. We evaluated differences in the number of reported outbreaks across different regions (agro-ecological zones), districts, months and years. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistics were used to identify possible epidemiological clusters of LSD outbreaks. RESULTS: A total of 1161 outbreaks and 319,355 cases of LSD were reported from 55 out of 56 districts of Uganda. There was a significant difference in incidence between years (P = 0.007) and across different regions. However, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreaks per month (P = 0.443). The Central region reported the highest number of outbreaks (n = 418, 36%) followed by Eastern (n = 372, 32%), Southwestern (n = 140, 12%), Northern (n = 131, 11%), Northeastern (n = 37, 3%), Western (n = 41, 4%) and Northwestern (n = 22, 2%) regions. Several endemic hotspots for the circulation of LSD were identified in the Central and Eastern regions using spatial cluster analyses. Outbreaks in endemic hotspots were less seasonal and had strikingly lower mortality and case-fatality rates than the other regions, suggesting an underlying difference in the epidemiology and impact of LSD in these different zones. CONCLUSION: Lumpy Skin disease is endemic in Uganda, with outbreaks occurring annually in all regions of the country. We identified potential spatial hotspots for LSD outbreaks, underlining the need for risk-based surveillance to establish the actual disease prevalence and risk factors for disease maintenance. Space-time analysis revealed that sporadic LSD outbreaks tend to occur both within and outside of endemic areas. The findings from this study will be used as a baseline for further epidemiological studies for the development of sustainable programmes towards the control of LSD in Uganda.