Effect of vaccination on the case fatality rate for COVID-19 infections 2020-2021: multivariate modelling of data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits of vaccination on the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 infections. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The US Department of Veterans Affairs has 130 medical centres. We created multivariate models from these data-339 772 patients with COVID-19-as of 30 September 2021. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome for all models was death within 60 days of the diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to derive adjusted ORs for vaccination and infection with Delta versus earlier variants. Models were adjusted for confounding factors, including demographics, comorbidity indices and novel parameters representing prior diagnoses, vital signs/baseline laboratory tests and outpatient treatments. Patients with a Delta infection were divided into eight cohorts based on the time from vaccination to diagnosis. A common model was used to estimate the odds of death associated with vaccination for each cohort relative to that of unvaccinated patients. RESULTS: 9.1% of subjects were vaccinated. 21.5% had the Delta variant. 18 120 patients (5.33%) died within 60 days of their diagnoses. The adjusted OR for a Delta infection was 1.87±0.05, which corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 1.78. The overall adjusted OR for prior vaccination was 0.280±0.011 corresponding to an RR of 0.291. Raw CFR rose steadily after 10-14 weeks. The OR for vaccination remained stable for 10-34 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Our CFR model controls for the severity of confounding factors and priority of vaccination, rather than solely using the presence of comorbidities. Our results confirm that Delta was more lethal than earlier variants and that vaccination is an effective means of preventing death. After adjusting for major selection biases, we found no evidence that the benefits of vaccination on CFR declined over 34 weeks. We suggest that this model can be used to evaluate vaccines designed for emerging variants.

A novel method for handling pre-existing conditions in multivariate prediction model development for COVID-19 death in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Many mathematical models have been proposed to predict death following the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); all started with comorbidity subsets for this still-little understood disease. Thus, we derived a novel predicted probability of death model (PDeathDx) upon all diagnostic codes documented in the Department of Veterans Affairs. We present the conceptual underpinnings and analytic approach in estimating the independent contribution of pre-existing conditions. This is the largest study to-date following patients with COVID-19 to predict mortality. Cases were identified with at least one positive nucleic acid amplification test. Starting in 1997, we use diagnoses from the first time a patient sought care until 14 days before a positive nucleic acid amplification test. We demonstrate the clear advantage of using an unrestricted set of pre-existing conditions to model COVID-19 mortality, as models using conventional comorbidity indices often assign little weight or usually do not include some of the highest risk conditions; the same is true of conditions associated with COVID-19 severity. Our findings suggest that it is risky to pick comorbidities for analysis without a systematic review of all those experienced by the cohort. Unlike conventional approaches, our comprehensive methodology provides the flexibility that has been advocated for comorbidity indices since 1993; such an approach can be readily adapted for other diseases and outcomes. With our comorbidity risk adjustment approach outperforming conventional indices for predicting COVID-19 mortality, it shows promise for predicting outcomes for other conditions of interest.

Development and validation of prediction rules to target care intensification in veteran patients with diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes affects 30.3 million people in the USA. Among these people, a major risk factor for microvascular complications is having a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) value of ≥75 mmol/mol; therefore, it would be helpful to identify patients who will obtain future HbA1c values of <75 mmol/mol. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate two prediction rules among patients with diabetes having a baseline HbA1c value of ≥75 mmol/mol: (1) HbA1c measurement ever <75 mmol/mol and (2) final HbA1c measurement of <75 mmol/mol. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using a registry extracting data from the Department of Veterans Affairs's (VA's) electronic health records system. Baseline was 1 Jul 2013-30 June 2014; patients were followed up until 31 July 2016. RESULTS: Our population consisted of 145 659 patients. Across models, predictors were age, sex, minority status, baseline HbA1c value, time, HbA1c≥75 mmol/mol, receiving insulin treatment and consecutive number of HbA1c values of 75 mmol/mol. The overall likelihood of a patient ever having an HbA1c<75 mmol/mol was 73.65%; with the rule, predicted probabilities were 38.94%, 50.75% and 78.88%. The overall likelihood of patients having a final HbA1c measurement of <75 mmol/mol was 55.35%; the rule provided predicted probabilities of 29.93%, 50.17% and 68.58%. CONCLUSIONS: Within each rule, there were similar observed and predicted tertile probabilities; maintaining HbA1c values of <75 mmol/mol resulted in probability shifts in the majority of patients. We recommend psychosocial screening for 15% of patients for whom there is less than one-third chance of maintaining HbA1c<75 mmol/mol. We plan to conduct additional research to see whether this approach helps.

Dialysis-associated hyperglycemia: manifestations and treatment.

PURPOSE: Dialysis-associated hyperglycemia (DAH), is associated with a distinct fluid and electrolyte pathophysiology. The purpose of this report was to review the pathophysiology and provide treatment guidelines for DAH. METHODS: Review of published reports on DAH. Synthesis of guidelines based on these reports. RESULTS: The following fluid and solute abnormalities have been identified in DAH: (a) hypoglycemia: this is a frequent complication of insulin treatment and its prevention requires special attention. (b) Elevated serum tonicity. The degree of hypertonicity in DAH is lower than in similar levels of hyperglycemia in patients with preserved renal function. Typically, correction of hyperglycemia with insulin corrects the hypertonicity of DAH. (c) Extracellular volume abnormalities ranging from pulmonary edema associated with osmotic fluid shift from the intracellular into the extracellular compartment as a consequence of gain in extracellular solute (glucose) to hypovolemia from osmotic diuresis in patients with residual renal function or from fluid losses through extrarenal routes. Correction of DAH by insulin infusion reverses the osmotic fluid transfer between the intracellular and extracellular compartments and corrects the pulmonary edema, but can worsen the manifestations of hypovolemia, which require saline infusion. (d) A variety of acid-base disorders including ketoacidosis correctable with insulin infusion and no other interventions. (e) Hyperkalemia, which is frequent in DAH and is more severe when ketoacidosis is also present. Insulin infusion corrects the hyperkalemia. Extreme hyperkalemia at presentation or hypokalemia developing during insulin infusion require additional measures. CONCLUSIONS: In DAH, insulin infusion is the primary management strategy and corrects the fluid and electrolyte abnormalities. Patients treated for DAH should be monitored for the development of hypoglycemia or fluid and electrolyte abnormalities that may require additional treatments.

Principles of quantitative water and electrolyte replacement of losses from osmotic diuresis.

Osmotic diuresis results from urine loss of large amounts of solutes distributed either in total body water or in the extracellular compartment. Replacement solutions should reflect the volume and monovalent cation (sodium and potassium) content of the fluid lost. Whereas the volume of the solutions used to replace losses that occurred prior to the diagnosis of osmotic diuresis is guided by the clinical picture, the composition of these solutions is predicated on serum sodium concentration and urinary sodium and potassium concentrations at presentation. Water loss is relatively greater than the loss of sodium plus potassium leading to hypernatremia which is seen routinely when the solute responsible for osmotic diuresis (e.g., urea) is distributed in body water. Solutes distributed in the extracellular compartment (e.g., glucose or mannitol) cause, in addition to osmotic diuresis, fluid transfer from the intracellular into the extracellular compartment with concomitant dilution of serum sodium. Serum sodium concentration corrected to euglycemia should be substituted for actual serum sodium concentration when calculating the composition of the replacement solutions in hyperglycemic patients. While the patient is monitored during treatment, the calculation of the volume and composition of the replacement solutions for losses of water, sodium and potassium from ongoing osmotic diuresis should be based directly on measurements of urine volume and urine sodium and potassium concentrations and not by means of any predictive formulas. Monitoring of clinical status, serum sodium, potassium, glucose, other relevant laboratory values, urine volume, and urine sodium and potassium concentrations during treatment of severe osmotic diuresis is of critical importance.

Fluid balance concepts in medicine: Principles and practice.

The regulation of body fluid balance is a key concern in health and disease and comprises three concepts. The first concept pertains to the relationship between total body water (TBW) and total effective solute and is expressed in terms of the tonicity of the body fluids. Disturbances in tonicity are the main factor responsible for changes in cell volume, which can critically affect brain cell function and survival. Solutes distributed almost exclusively in the extracellular compartment (mainly sodium salts) and in the intracellular compartment (mainly potassium salts) contribute to tonicity, while solutes distributed in TBW have no effect on tonicity. The second body fluid balance concept relates to the regulation and measurement of abnormalities of sodium salt balance and extracellular volume. Estimation of extracellular volume is more complex and error prone than measurement of TBW. A key function of extracellular volume, which is defined as the effective arterial blood volume (EABV), is to ensure adequate perfusion of cells and organs. Other factors, including cardiac output, total and regional capacity of both arteries and veins, Starling forces in the capillaries, and gravity also affect the EABV. Collectively, these factors interact closely with extracellular volume and some of them undergo substantial changes in certain acute and chronic severe illnesses. Their changes result not only in extracellular volume expansion, but in the need for a larger extracellular volume compared with that of healthy individuals. Assessing extracellular volume in severe illness is challenging because the estimates of this volume by commonly used methods are prone to large errors in many illnesses. In addition, the optimal extracellular volume may vary from illness to illness, is only partially based on volume measurements by traditional methods, and has not been determined for each illness. Further research is needed to determine optimal extracellular volume levels in several illnesses. For these reasons, extracellular volume in severe illness merits a separate third concept of body fluid balance.

Reproducibility of serial creatinine excretion measurements in peritoneal dialysis.

AIM: To test whether muscle mass evaluated by creatinine excretion (EXCr) is maintained in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) treated by peritoneal dialysis (PD), we evaluated repeated measurements of EXCr in a PD population. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-six PD patients (94 male, 72 female) receiving the same PD dose for the duration of the study (up to approximately 2.5 years) had repeated determinations of total (in urine plus spent dialysate) 24-h EXCr (EXCr T) to assess the adequacy of PD by creatinine clearance. All 166 patients had two EXCr T determinations, 84 of the 166 patients had three EXCr T determinations and 44 of the 166 patients had four EXCr T measurements. EXCr T values were compared using the paired t test in the patients who had two studies and by repeated measures ANOVA in those who were studied three or four times. RESULTS: In patients who were studied twice, with the first and second EXCr T measurements performed at 9.2 ± 15.2 mo and 17.4 ± 15.8 mo after onset of PD, respectively, EXCr T did not differ between the first and second study. In patients studied three times and whose final assessment occurred 24.7 ± 16.3 mo after initiating PD, EXCr T did not differ between the first and second study, but was significantly lower in the third study compared to the first study. In patients who were studied four times and whose fourth measurement was taken 31.9 ± 16.8 mo after onset of PD, EXCr T did not differ between any of the studies. The average EXCr T value did not change significantly, with the exception of the third study in the patients studied thrice. However, repeated determinations of EXCr T in individuals showed substantial variability, with approximately 50% of the repeated determinations being higher or lower than the first determination by 15% or more. CONCLUSION: The average value of EXCr T remains relatively constant for up to 2.5 years of follow-up in PD patients who adhere to the same PD schedule. However, repeated individual EXCr T values vary considerably in a large proportion of the patients. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical significance of varying EXCr T values and the stability of EXCr T beyond 2.5 years of PD follow-up.

Advanced wasting in peritoneal dialysis patients.

AIM: To identify patients with end-stage renal disease treated by peritoneal dialysis (PD) who had zero body fat (BF) as determined by analysis of body composition using anthropometric formulas estimating body water (V) and to compare nutritional parameters between these patients and PD patients whose BF was above zero. METHODS: Body weight (W) consists of fat-free mass (FFM) and BF. Anthropometric formulas for calculating V allow the calculation of FFM as V/0.73, where 0.73 is the water fraction of FFM at normal hydration. Wasting from loss of BF has adverse survival outcomes in PD. Advanced wasting was defined as zero BF when V/0.73 is equal to or exceeds W. This study, which analyzed 439 PD patients at their first clearance study, used the Watson formulas estimating V to identify patients with VWatson/0.73 ≥ W and compared their nutritional indices with those of PD patients with VWatson/0.73 < W. RESULTS: The study identified at the first clearance study two male patients with VWatson/0.73 ≥ W among 439 patients on PD. Compared to 260 other male patients on PD, the two subjects with advanced wasting had exceptionally low body mass index and serum albumin concentration. The first of the two subjects also had very low values for serum creatinine concentration and total (in urine and spent peritoneal dialysate) creatinine excretion rate while the second subject had an elevated serum creatinine concentration and high creatinine excretion rate due, most probably, to non-compliance with the PD prescription. CONCLUSION: Advanced wasting (zero BF) in PD patients, identified by the anthropometric formulas that estimate V, while rare, is associated with indices of poor somatic and visceral nutrition.

Hypertonicity: Clinical entities, manifestations and treatment.

Hypertonicity causes severe clinical manifestations and is associated with mortality and severe short-term and long-term neurological sequelae. The main clinical syndromes of hypertonicity are hypernatremia and hyperglycemia. Hypernatremia results from relative excess of body sodium over body water. Loss of water in excess of intake, gain of sodium salts in excess of losses or a combination of the two are the main mechanisms of hypernatremia. Hypernatremia can be hypervolemic, euvolemic or hypovolemic. The management of hypernatremia addresses both a quantitative replacement of water and, if present, sodium deficit, and correction of the underlying pathophysiologic process that led to hypernatremia. Hypertonicity in hyperglycemia has two components, solute gain secondary to glucose accumulation in the extracellular compartment and water loss through hyperglycemic osmotic diuresis in excess of the losses of sodium and potassium. Differentiating between these two components of hypertonicity has major therapeutic implications because the first component will be reversed simply by normalization of serum glucose concentration while the second component will require hypotonic fluid replacement. An estimate of the magnitude of the relative water deficit secondary to osmotic diuresis is obtained by the corrected sodium concentration, which represents a calculated value of the serum sodium concentration that would result from reduction of the serum glucose concentration to a normal level.

Hypertonicity: Pathophysiologic Concept and Experimental Studies.

Disturbances in tonicity (effective osmolarity) are the major clinical disorders affecting cell volume. Cell shrinking secondary to hypertonicity causes severe clinical manifestations and even death. Quantitative management of hypertonic disorders is based on formulas computing the volume of hypotonic fluids required to correct a given level of hypertonicity. These formulas have limitations. The major limitation of the predictive formulas is that they represent closed system calculations and have been tested in anuric animals. Consequently, the formulas do not account for ongoing fluid losses during development or treatment of the hypertonic disorders. In addition, early comparisons of serum osmolality changes predicted by these formulas and observed in animals infused with hypertonic solutions clearly demonstrated that hypertonicity creates new intracellular solutes causing rises in serum osmolality higher than those predicted by the formulas. The mechanisms and types of intracellular solutes generated by hypertonicity and the effects of the solutes have been studied extensively in recent times. The solutes accumulated intracellularly in hypertonic states have potentially major adverse effects on the outcomes of treatment of these states. When hypertonicity was produced by the infusion of hypertonic sodium chloride solutions, the predicted and observed changes in serum sodium concentration were equal. This finding justifies the use of the predictive formulas in the management of hypernatremic states.

Respiratory failure in diabetic ketoacidosis.

Respiratory failure complicating the course of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a source of increased morbidity and mortality. Detection of respiratory failure in DKA requires focused clinical monitoring, careful interpretation of arterial blood gases, and investigation for conditions that can affect adversely the respiration. Conditions that compromise respiratory function caused by DKA can be detected at presentation but are usually more prevalent during treatment. These conditions include deficits of potassium, magnesium and phosphate and hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic pulmonary edema. Conditions not caused by DKA that can worsen respiratory function under the added stress of DKA include infections of the respiratory system, pre-existing respiratory or neuromuscular disease and miscellaneous other conditions. Prompt recognition and management of the conditions that can lead to respiratory failure in DKA may prevent respiratory failure and improve mortality from DKA.

Indices of serum tonicity in clinical practice.

Although disturbances of serum tonicity (effective osmolality) may have dire consequences, only surrogate indices of tonicity are available in practice. This report identifies the appropriate index for expressing clinical states of dystonicity. Serum sodium concentration ([Na]S) and osmolality ([Osm]S) may be incongruent. When the tonicity state shown by [Osm]S is higher than [Na]S and the difference between the 2 indices is caused by an excess of solute that distributes in total body water, tonicity is described by [Na]S. When this difference results from a gain of solute with extracellular distribution like mannitol or a decrease in serum water content, causing a falsely low measurement of [Na]S, [Osm]S accurately reflects tonicity. Two indices of tonicity are applicable during hyperglycemia: the tonicity formula (2 ·[Na]S + [Glucose]S/18) and the corrected [Na]S ([Na]S corrected to a normal [Glucose]S using an empirically derived coefficient). Clinicians should understand the uses and limitations of the tonicity indices.

Discrepancy between Measured Serum Total Carbon Dioxide Content and Bicarbonate Concentration Calculated from Arterial Blood Gases.

Large differences between the concentrations of serum total carbon dioxide (TCO2) and blood gas bicarbonate (HCO3 (-)) were observed in two consecutive simultaneously drawn sets of samples of serum and arterial blood gases in a patient who presented with severe carbon dioxide retention and profound acidemia. These differences could not be explained by the effect of the high partial pressure of carbon dioxide on TCO2, by variations in the dissociation constant of the carbonic acid/bicarbonate system or by faults caused by the algorithms of the blood gas apparatus that calculate HCO3 (-). A recalculation using the Henderson-Hasselbach equation revealed arterial blood gas HCO3 (-) values close to the corresponding serum TCO2 values and clarified the diagnosis of the acid-base disorder, which had been placed in doubt by the large differences between the reported TCO2 and HCO3 (-) values. Human error in the calculation of HCO3 (-) was identified as the source of these differences. Recalculation of blood gas HCO3 (-) should be the first step in identifying the source of large differences between serum TCO2 and blood gas HCO3 (-).

Management of severe hyponatremia: infusion of hypertonic saline and desmopressin or infusion of vasopressin inhibitors?

Rapid correction of severe hyponatremia carries the risk of osmotic demyelination. Two recently introduced methods of correction of hyponatremia have diametrically opposite effects on aquaresis. Inhibitors of vasopressin V2 receptor (vaptans) lead to the production of dilute urine, whereas infusion of desmopressin causes urinary concentration. Identification of the category of hyponatremia that will benefit from one or the other treatment is critical. In general, vaptans are effective in hyponatremias presenting with concentrated urine and, with the exception of hypovolemic hyponatremia, can be used as their primary treatment. Desmopressin is effective in hyponatremias presenting with dilute urine or developing urinary dilution after saline infusion. In this setting, desmopressin infusion helps prevent overcorrection of the hyponatremia. Monitoring of the changes in serum sodium concentration as a guide to treatment changes is imperative regardless of the initial treatment of severe hyponatremia.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors versus angiotensin receptor blockers for end-stage renal disease/mortality in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To compare angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) development and all-cause mortality in veterans with macroalbuminuria and with newly documented type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study utilizing data from the national Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) databases. The study followed 5166 subjects without a history of use of ACEIs or ARBs. To control for differences in baseline characteristics between groups, comparisons of subjects ACEIs and ARBs were made by incorporating propensity scores analysis into multivariate logistic regression. This resulted in adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for ESRD development and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The sample was followed up to five years with a mean follow-up of three years. Subjects taking ACEIs has lower odds of ESRD development (OR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.13-0.82]) and all-cause mortality (OR, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.04-0.21]) than ARBs. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that ACEIs are associated with lower ESRD development and all-cause mortality than ARBs. This may have implications for guidelines which currently suggest that these two therapeutic classes provide similar benefits in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and macroalbuminuria.

Sustained remission of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-mediated glomerulonephritis and nephrotic syndrome in mixed connective tissue disease.

A woman diagnosed with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD) developed an anti-myeloperoxidase (MPO) antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) and nephrotic syndrome with normal serum creatinine. Percutaneous kidney biopsy showed pauci-immune glomerulonephritis with superimposed immune complex deposition. After treatment with cyclophophamide and prednisone, proteinuria decreased progressively to a level of 0.4 g/g creatinine, ANCA became undetectable, while serum creatinine remained normal seven years after the beginning of treatment. Sustained remission of nephrotic proteinuria with preserved renal function may follow treatment of ANCA-mediated disease developing in patients with MCTD.

Surgical procedures before and after starting chronic hemodialysis in a predominantly male population with high prevalence of diabetes.

PURPOSE: The purposes of this study were to analyze changes in the frequency of different categories of surgical procedures after initiation of chronic hemodialysis (HD) and to identify the types of procedures associated with in-hospital postoperative mortality. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of surgical procedures performed in an incident HD population of 392 patients followed in the dialysis unit of one hospital over 15 years. Among these patients, 384 were men and 258 had diabetes mellitus. At the start of HD, age of the patients was 66.3 ± 11.2 years and Charlson index 5.35 ± 2.41. Rates of procedures per patient year (n/[pt-yr]), reported as mean (95% Confidence Interval [CI]), were compared by nonparametric methods. RESULTS: In the whole HD population, the overall rate of procedures increased in the HD period (pre-HD 0.125 [95% CI 0.101-0.149] n/[pt-yr]; HD 0.928 [95% CI 0.795-1.061] n/[pt-yr]; p<0.001). The increase, noted in patients with and without diabetes, reflected increases in the rates for both vascular access and non-vascular access procedures from the pre-HD to the HD period. Amputations and surgery for hip fractures accounted for the increase in the rates of procedures related to non-vascular access. Procedures associated with mortality in the HD period included amputations, hip repair and abdominal surgery for septic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of surgical procedures for vascular access, amputations, and hip fractures ?increased after the start of HD. Amputations and hip fractures, both potentially preventable, are associated with mortality in HD patients.