Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics.

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models and individual variation.

AIM: Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity. LOCATION: Global. TAXON: Arabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis"). METHODS: We fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions. RESULTS: The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Integration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.

Survival, growth, and functional traits of tropical wet forest tree seedlings across an experimental soil moisture gradient in Puerto Rico.

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8-month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture-defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions-and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture-defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species-specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions.