Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Modelling seasonal household variation in harvested rainwater availability: a case study in Siaya County, Kenya.

Rainwater harvesting reliability, the proportion of days annually when rainwater demand is fully met, is challenging to estimate from cross-sectional household surveys that underpin international monitoring. This study investigated the use of a modelling approach that integrates household surveys with gridded precipitation data to evaluate rainwater harvesting reliability, using two local-scale household surveys in rural Siaya County, Kenya as an illustrative case study. We interviewed 234 households, administering a standard questionnaire that also identified the source of household stored drinking water. Logistic mixed effects models estimated stored rainwater availability from household and climatological variables, with random effects accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Household rainwater availability was significantly associated with seasonality, storage capacity, and access to alternative improved water sources. Most households (95.1%) that consumed rainwater faced insufficient supply of rainwater available for potable needs throughout the year, with intermittencies during the short rains for most households with alternative improved sources. Although not significant, stored rainwater lasts longer for households whose only improved water source was rainwater (301.8 ± 40.2 days) compared to those having multiple improved sources (144.4 ± 63.7 days). Such modelling analysis could enable rainwater harvesting reliability estimation, and thereby national/international monitoring and targeted follow-up fieldwork to support rainwater harvesting.

A spatiotemporal analysis of cattle herd movement in relation to drinking-water sources: implications for Cryptosporidium control in rural Kenya.

Given the increasing evidence that domestic contact with livestock is a risk factor for child diarrhoea in low- and middle-income countries, there have been calls for greater quantification of human-livestock contact in such countries. This study aimed to quantify seasonality in cattle proximity to domestic water sources and household compounds and develop a preliminary landscape model of faecal deposition by cattle. A total of 120 cattle in smallholder herds in the Asembo area of Siaya County, Kenya, were tracked over 1 week in April 2018 to July 2018 and November 2018 to February 2019 using GPS tracking devices. Dung deposition and behaviour were observed among 33 cattle from these herds over 185.4 hours. Mean cattle home ranges were small at 3.78 km2 and 5.85 km2 in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. There were significant differences between seasons in home range size, distance travelled from the household, and time spent tethered, but not in the time spent at domestic water sources or home range overlap with other herds. On average, 0.76 dung deposition events/hour were observed, with higher frequency in bulls. Variation in cattle proximity to household compounds and water sources did not account for seasonal variation in child diarrhoea in this population. The preliminary landscape model of faecal deposition by cattle could be further developed to inform interventions for safe separation of livestock and people, such as fencing and separate water troughs.

A longitudinal study of the association between domestic contact with livestock and contamination of household point-of-use stored drinking water in rural Siaya County (Kenya).

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests close domestic proximity of livestock and humans may lead to microbiological contamination of hands, objects, food and water supplies within domestic environments, adversely impacting public health. However, evidence quantifying the relationship between livestock, domestic animals, humans and microbiological contamination of household stored water remains limited. AIM: This longitudinal study aimed to examine the relationship between domestic contact with livestock and domestic animals on microbiological contamination of household Point-of-Use (POU) stored drinking water in rural Kenya and assess the influence of choice of faecal indicator on such associations. METHODOLOGY: A survey was performed in 234 households in Siaya county, Kenya, to observe presence of livestock (cattle, goats, poultry) and domestic animals (cats, dogs) in household compounds, alongside other risk factors for contamination of POU stored drinking water such as sanitation, storage conditions and hygiene practices. Samples from water sources (e.g. piped, spring/wells, boreholes, surface and rainwater) and from POU storage containers were tested for E. coli and intestinal enterococci. Livestock-related risk factors for water contamination were examined through multinomial regression, controlling for confounders. RESULTS: Rainwater was the main POU water source and was found to be highly susceptible to contamination. Multivariate analysis showed greater risk of gross (>100 CFU/100 mL) water contamination (with E. coli) for households where goats were observed, and/or where poultry roosted in proximity to stored household water (relative risk RR = 2.71; p = 0.001 and RR = 2.02; p = 0.012 respectively). Presence of a poultry coop was also associated with elevated intestinal enterococci densities (RR = 4.46; p = 0.001). Associations between contamination and livestock risk factors were thus similar for both bacteria groups, but E. coli counts declined more rapidly following collection from surface waters than enterococci counts (p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: The presence of livestock (particularly goats) and poultry within household compounds increases POU water contamination risk, suggesting the need for improved interventions to address cross-contamination within rural domestic settings. Within Siaya county, more effective community education is needed to raise awareness of POU water quality protection, particularly of rainwater.