Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response.

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset.

We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.

mtDNA heteroplasmy gives rise to a new maternal lineage in North Pacific humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae).

Heteroplasmy in the mitochondrial genome offers a rare opportunity to track the evolution of a newly arising maternal lineage in populations of non-model species. Here, we identified a previously unreported mitochondrial DNA haplotype while assembling an integrated database of DNA profiles and photo-identification records from humpback whales in southeastern Alaska (SEAK). The haplotype, referred to as A8, was shared by only 2 individuals, a mature female with her female calf, and differed by only a single base pair from a common haplotype in the North Pacific, referred to as A-. To investigate the origins of the A8 haplotype, we reviewed n = 1,089 electropherograms (including replicate samples) of n = 710 individuals with A- haplotypes from an existing collection. From this review, we found 20 individuals with clear evidence of heteroplasmy for A-/A8 (parental/derived) haplotypes. Of these, 15 were encountered in SEAK, 4 were encountered on the Hawaiian breeding ground (the primary migratory destination for whales in SEAK), and 1 was encountered in the northern Gulf of Alaska. We used genotype exclusion and likelihood to identify one of the heteroplasmic females as the likely mother of the A8 cow and grandmother of the A8 calf, establishing the inheritance and germ-line fixation of the new haplotype from the parental heteroplasmy. The mutation leading to this heteroplasmy and the fixation of the A8 haplotype provide an opportunity to document the population dynamics and regional fidelity of a newly arising maternal lineage in a population recovering from exploitation.

Reproductive Steroid Hormone Patterns in Baleen of Two Pregnant Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae).

Understanding reproductive physiology in mysticetes has been slowed by the lack of repeated samples from individuals. Analysis of humpback whale baleen enables retrospective hormone analysis within individuals dating back 3-5 years before death. Using this method, we investigated differences in four steroid hormones involved in reproduction and mating during confirmed pregnant and non-pregnant periods in two female humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) with known reproductive histories based on sightings and necropsy data. Cortisol, corticosterone, testosterone, and estradiol concentrations were determined via enzyme immunoassay using subsamples of each baleen plate at 2 cm intervals. There were no significant differences in cortisol or corticosterone during pregnancy when compared to non-pregnancy (inter-calving interval), but there were significant differences between the two whales in average glucocorticoid concentrations, with the younger whale showing higher values overall. For testosterone, levels for the younger female peaked at parturition in one pregnancy, but also had spikes during non-pregnancy. The older female had three large spikes in testosterone, one of which was associated with parturition. Estradiol had large fluctuations in both whales but had generally lower concentrations during non-pregnancy than during pregnancy. There were peaks in estradiol before each pregnancy, possibly coinciding with ovulation, and peaks coinciding with the month of parturition. Both estradiol and testosterone could be useful for determining ovulation or impending birth. Using baleen to investigate retrospective steroid hormone profiles can be used for elucidating long-term patterns of physiological change during gestation. LAY SUMMARY: Case studies of two pregnant humpback whales whose hormones were analyzed in baleen may illuminate when humpback whales ovulate, gestate, and give birth. These physiological metrics could assist in accurate population growth assessments and conservation of the species. This study shows that baleen hormone analysis can be a useful tool for understanding whale reproductive physiology.

Multi-year progesterone profiles during pregnancy in baleen of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae).

Understanding calving rates of wild whale populations is critically important for management and conservation. Reproduction of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) is difficult to monitor and, even with long-term sighting studies, basic physiological information such as pregnancy rates and calving intervals remain poorly understood in many populations. We hypothesized that pregnant whales have sustained elevations in baleen progesterone that temporally correlate with gestation. To test this hypothesis, baleen progesterone profiles from two adult female North Pacific humpbacks, both with extensive sighting records and documented pregnancies, were compared to those of a nulliparous female (adult female never seen with a calf) and a juvenile male. Baleen specimens recovered during necropsy were subsampled every 2 cm from the base to the tip of the plate, with each interval representing 30-45 days of growth. Homogenized baleen powder was assayed for progesterone using enzyme immunoassays. The date of growth of each sampling location on the baleen plate was estimated based on stable isotope analysis of annual δ15N cycles. Progesterone profiles from both pregnant whales showed sustained high progesterone content (>350 ng/g) in areas corresponding to known pregnancies, inferred from calf sightings and post-mortem data. The younger female, estimated to be 13 years old, had higher progesterone during pregnancy than the 44.5 year old, but levels during non-pregnancy were similar. The nulliparous female and the male had low progesterone throughout their baleen plates. Baleen hormone analysis can determine how progesterone concentrations change throughout gestation and has potential for estimating age at first reproduction, pregnancy intervals, failed pregnancies and early calf mortality. Understanding rates of calving and current and historic reproductive patterns in humpbacks is vital to continuing conservation measures in this species.

Patterns of cortisol and corticosterone concentrations in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) baleen are associated with different causes of death.

Baleen whales are subject to a myriad of natural and anthropogenic stressors, but understanding how these stressors affect physiology is difficult. Measurement of adrenal glucocorticoid (GC) hormones involved in the vertebrate stress response (cortisol and corticosterone) in baleen could help fill this data gap. Baleen analysis is a powerful tool, allowing for a retrospective re-creation of multiple years of GC hormone concentrations at approximately a monthly resolution. We hypothesized that whales that died from acute causes (e.g. ship strike) would have lower levels of baleen GCs than whales that died from extended illness or injury (e.g. long-term entanglement in fishing gear). To test this hypothesis, we extracted hormones from baleen plates of four humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) with well-documented deaths including multiple and chronic entanglements (n = 1, female), ship strike (n = 2, male and female) and chronic illness with nutritional stress (n = 1, male). Over ~3 years of baleen growth and during multiple entanglements, the entangled whale had average corticosterone levels of 80-187% higher than the other three whales but cortisol levels were similar to two of the other three whales. The nutritionally stressed and chronically ill whale showed a slow increase in both cortisol and corticosterone spanning ~3 years, followed by a sharp decline in both hormones before death, possibly indicative of adrenal failure in this moribund individual. This whale's correlation between cortisol and corticosterone was significant but there were no correlations in the other three whales. Our results show that cortisol and corticosterone concentrations vary according to the type and duration of illness or injury. Single-point GC concentrations should be interpreted with caution as low values can occur in whales experiencing pronounced stress and individual baselines can be highly variable. Baleen analysis is a promising tissue type for retrospective analyses of physiological responses to various stressors affecting baleen whales.