Femoral neck width genetic risk score is a novel independent risk factor for hip fractures.

Femoral neck width (FNW) derived from DXA scans may provide a useful adjunct to hip fracture prediction. Therefore, we investigated whether FNW is related to hip fracture risk independently of femoral neck bone mineral density (FN-BMD), using a genetic approach. FNW was derived from points automatically placed on the proximal femur using hip DXA scans from 38 150 individuals (mean age 63.8 yr, 48.0% males) in UK Biobank (UKB). Genome-wide association study (GWAS) identified 71 independent genome-wide significant FNW SNPs, comprising genes involved in cartilage differentiation, hedgehog, skeletal development, in contrast to SNPs identified by FN-BMD GWAS which primarily comprised runx1/Wnt signaling genes (MAGMA gene set analyses). FNW and FN-BMD SNPs were used to generate genetic instruments for multivariable Mendelian randomization. Greater genetically determined FNW increased risk of all hip fractures (odds ratio [OR] 1.53; 95% CI, 1.29-1.82 per SD increase) and femoral neck fractures (OR 1.58;1.30-1.92), but not trochanteric or forearm fractures. In contrast, greater genetically determined FN-BMD decreased fracture risk at all 4 sites. FNW and FN-BMD SNPs were also used to generate genetic risk scores (GRSs), which were examined in relation to incident hip fracture in UKB (excluding the FNW GWAS population; n = 338 742, 3222 cases) using a Cox proportional hazards model. FNW GRS was associated with increased risk of all incident hip fractures (HR 1.08;1.05-1.12) and femoral neck fractures (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10;1.06-1.15), but not trochanteric fractures, whereas FN-BMD GRS was associated with reduced risk of all hip fracture types. We conclude that the underlying biology regulating FNW and FN-BMD differs, and that DXA-derived FNW is causally related to hip fractures independently of FN-BMD, adding information beyond FN-BMD for hip fracture prediction. Hence, FNW derived from DXA analyses or a FNW GRS may contribute clinically useful information beyond FN-BMD for hip fracture prediction.

Femoral neck width (FNW) derived from DXA scans may provide useful information about hip fracture prediction, over and above that provided by BMD measurements. Therefore, we investigated whether FNW is related to hip fracture risk independently of BMD, using a genetic approach. FNW was derived from points automatically placed on the hip in DXA scans obtained from 38 150 individuals (mean age 63.8 yr, 48.0% males) in UK Biobank. Seventy-one distinct genetic factors were found to be associated with FNW. Individuals who were predicted by their genes to have greater FNW had a higher risk of hip but not forearm fractures. In contrast, those with greater genetically determined BMD of the femoral neck had a lower risk of both hip and forearm fractures. We conclude that the underlying biology regulating FNW and BMD of the femoral neck differs, and that FNW derived from DXA analyses may contribute clinically useful information beyond BMD for hip fracture prediction.

Large-scale circulating proteome association study (CPAS) meta-analysis identifies circulating proteins and pathways predicting incident hip fractures.

Hip fractures are associated with significant disability, high cost, and mortality. However, the exact biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to hip fractures remain incompletely understood. In an exploratory search of the underlying biology as reflected through the circulating proteome, we performed a comprehensive Circulating Proteome Association Study (CPAS) meta-analysis for incident hip fractures. Analyses included 6430 subjects from two prospective cohort studies (Cardiovascular Health Study and Trøndelag Health Study) with circulating proteomics data (aptamer-based 5 K SomaScan version 4.0 assay; 4979 aptamers). Associations between circulating protein levels and incident hip fractures were estimated for each cohort using age and sex-adjusted Cox regression models. Participants experienced 643 incident hip fractures. Compared with the individual studies, inverse-variance weighted meta-analyses yielded more statistically significant associations, identifying 23 aptamers associated with incident hip fractures (conservative Bonferroni correction 0.05/4979, P < 1.0 × 10-5). The aptamers most strongly associated with hip fracture risk corresponded to two proteins of the growth hormone/insulin growth factor system (GHR and IGFBP2), as well as GDF15 and EGFR. High levels of several inflammation-related proteins (CD14, CXCL12, MMP12, ITIH3) were also associated with increased hip fracture risk. Ingenuity pathway analysis identified reduced LXR/RXR activation and increased acute phase response signaling to be overrepresented among those proteins associated with increased hip fracture risk. These analyses identified several circulating proteins and pathways consistently associated with incident hip fractures. These findings underscore the usefulness of the meta-analytic approach for comprehensive CPAS in a similar manner as has previously been observed for large-scale human genetic studies. Future studies should investigate the underlying biology of these potential novel drug targets.

Hip fractures are associated with significant disability, high cost, and mortality. However, the exact biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to hip fractures remain incompletely understood. To increase the understanding of the underlying mechanisms, we performed a meta-analysis of the associations between 4860 circulating proteins and risk of fractures using two large cohorts, including 6430 participants with 643 incident hip fractures. We identified 23 proteins/aptamers associated with incident hip fractures. Two proteins of the growth hormone/insulin growth factor system (GHR and IGFBP2), as well as GDF15 and EGFR were most strongly associated with hip fracture risk. High levels of several inflammation-related proteins were also associated with increased hip fracture risk. Pathway analysis identified reduced LXR/RXR activation and increased acute phase response signaling to be overrepresented among those proteins associated with increased hip fracture risk. Future mechanistic studies should investigate the underlying biology of these novel protein biomarkers which may be potential drug targets.

An atlas of genetic determinants of forearm fracture.

Osteoporotic fracture is among the most common and costly of diseases. While reasonably heritable, its genetic determinants have remained elusive. Forearm fractures are the most common clinically recognized osteoporotic fractures with a relatively high heritability. To establish an atlas of the genetic determinants of forearm fractures, we performed genome-wide association analyses including 100,026 forearm fracture cases. We identified 43 loci, including 26 new fracture loci. Although most fracture loci associated with bone mineral density, we also identified loci that primarily regulate bone quality parameters. Functional studies of one such locus, at TAC4, revealed that Tac4-/- mice have reduced mechanical bone strength. The strongest forearm fracture signal, at WNT16, displayed remarkable bone-site-specificity with no association with hip fractures. Tall stature and low body mass index were identified as new causal risk factors for fractures. The insights from this atlas may improve fracture prediction and enable therapeutic development to prevent fractures.

Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease.

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Serum DHEA and Testosterone Levels Associate Inversely With Coronary Artery Calcification in Elderly Men.

CONTEXT: Epidemiological and preclinical data support cardiovascular, mainly protective, effects of sex steroids in men, but the mechanisms underlying the cardiovascular actions of sex steroids are poorly understood. Vascular calcification parallels the development of atherosclerosis, but is increasingly recognized as a diversified, highly regulated process, which itself may have pathophysiological importance for clinical cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between serum sex steroids and coronary artery calcification (CAC) in elderly men. METHODS: We used gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry to analyze a comprehensive sex steroid profile, including levels of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), androstenedione, estrone, testosterone, estradiol, and dihydrotestosterone, in men from the population-based AGES-Reykjavik study (n = 1287, mean 76 years). Further, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was assayed and bioavailable hormone levels calculated. CAC score was determined by computed tomography. The main outcome measures were cross-sectional associations between dehydroepiandrosterone, androstenedione, estrone, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, and estradiol and quintiles of CAC. RESULTS: Serum levels of DHEA, androstenedione, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, and bioavailable testosterone showed significant inverse associations with CAC, while estrone, estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, and SHBG did not. DHEA, testosterone, and bioavailable testosterone remained associated with CAC after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. In addition, our results support partially independent associations between adrenal-derived DHEA and testes-derived testosterone and CAC. CONCLUSION: Serum levels of DHEA and testosterone are inversely associated with CAC in elderly men, partially independently from each other. These results raise the question whether androgens from both the adrenals and the testes may contribute to male cardiovascular health.

Bone mineral density loci specific to the skull portray potential pleiotropic effects on craniosynostosis.

Skull bone mineral density (SK-BMD) provides a suitable trait for the discovery of key genes in bone biology, particularly to intramembranous ossification, not captured at other skeletal sites. We perform a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n ~ 43,800) of SK-BMD, identifying 59 loci, collectively explaining 12.5% of the trait variance. Association signals cluster within gene-sets involved in skeletal development and osteoporosis. Among the four novel loci (ZIC1, PRKAR1A, AZIN1/ATP6V1C1, GLRX3), there are factors implicated in intramembranous ossification and as we show, inherent to craniosynostosis processes. Functional follow-up in zebrafish confirms the importance of ZIC1 on cranial suture patterning. Likewise, we observe abnormal cranial bone initiation that culminates in ectopic sutures and reduced BMD in mosaic atp6v1c1 knockouts. Mosaic prkar1a knockouts present asymmetric bone growth and, conversely, elevated BMD. In light of this evidence linking SK-BMD loci to craniofacial abnormalities, our study provides new insight into the pathophysiology, diagnosis and treatment of skeletal diseases.

Low Circulating Valine Associate With High Risk of Hip Fractures.

CONTEXT: Hip fractures constitute a major health concern. An adequate supply of amino acids is crucial to ensure optimal acquisition and remodeling of bone. Circulating amino acid levels have been proposed as markers of bone mineral density, but data on their ability to predict incident fractures are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the associations between circulating amino acids and incident fractures. METHODS: We used UK Biobank (n = 111 257; 901 hip fracture cases) as a discovery cohort and the Umeå Fracture and Osteoporosis (UFO) hip fracture study (hip fracture cases n = 2225; controls n = 2225) for replication. Associations with bone microstructure parameters were tested in a subsample of Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Sweden (n = 449). RESULTS: Circulating valine was robustly associated with hip fractures in the UK Biobank (HR per SD increase 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.84), and this finding was replicated in the UFO study (combined meta-analysis including 3126 incident hip fracture cases, odds ratio per SD increase 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.88). Detailed bone microstructure analyses showed that high circulating valine was associated with high cortical bone area and trabecular thickness. CONCLUSION: Low circulating valine is a robust predictor of incident hip fractures. We propose that circulating valine may add information for hip fracture prediction. Future studies are warranted to determine whether low valine is causally associated with hip fractures.

Lowering of Circulating Sclerostin May Increase Risk of Atherosclerosis and Its Risk Factors: Evidence From a Genome-Wide Association Meta-Analysis Followed by Mendelian Randomization.

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to establish the causal effects of lowering sclerostin, target of the antiosteoporosis drug romosozumab, on atherosclerosis and its risk factors. METHODS: A genome-wide association study meta-analysis was performed of circulating sclerostin levels in 33,961 European individuals. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to predict the causal effects of sclerostin lowering on 15 atherosclerosis-related diseases and risk factors. RESULTS: We found that 18 conditionally independent variants were associated with circulating sclerostin. Of these, 1 cis signal in SOST and 3 trans signals in B4GALNT3, RIN3, and SERPINA1 regions showed directionally opposite signals for sclerostin levels and estimated bone mineral density. Variants with these 4 regions were selected as genetic instruments. MR using 5 correlated cis-SNPs suggested that lower sclerostin increased the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) (odds ratio [OR] 1.32 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03-1.69]) and myocardial infarction (MI) (OR 1.35 [95% CI 1.01-1.79]); sclerostin lowering was also suggested to increase the extent of coronary artery calcification (CAC) (ß = 0.24 [95% CI 0.02-0.45]). MR using both cis and trans instruments suggested that lower sclerostin increased hypertension risk (OR 1.09 [95% CI 1.04-1.15]), but otherwise had attenuated effects. CONCLUSION: This study provides genetic evidence to suggest that lower levels of sclerostin may increase the risk of hypertension, type 2 DM, MI, and the extent of CAC. Taken together, these findings underscore the requirement for strategies to mitigate potential adverse effects of romosozumab treatment on atherosclerosis and its related risk factors.

Identification of three bacterial species associated with increased appendicular lean mass: the HUNT study.

Appendicular lean mass (ALM) associates with mobility and bone mineral density (BMD). While associations between gut microbiota composition and ALM have been reported, previous studies rely on relatively small sample sizes. Here, we determine the associations between prevalent gut microbes and ALM in large discovery and replication cohorts with information on relevant confounders within the population-based Norwegian HUNT cohort (n = 5196, including women and men). We show that the presence of three bacterial species - Coprococcus comes, Dorea longicatena, and Eubacterium ventriosum - are reproducibly associated with higher ALM. When combined into an anabolic species count, participants with all three anabolic species have 0.80 kg higher ALM than those without any. In an exploratory analysis, the anabolic species count is positively associated with femoral neck and total hip BMD. We conclude that the anabolic species count may be used as a marker of ALM and BMD. The therapeutic potential of these anabolic species to prevent sarcopenia and osteoporosis needs to be determined.

B4GALNT3 regulates glycosylation of sclerostin and bone mass.

BACKGROUND: Global sclerostin inhibition reduces fracture risk efficiently but has been associated with cardiovascular side effects. The strongest genetic signal for circulating sclerostin is in the B4GALNT3 gene region, but the causal gene is unknown. B4GALNT3 expresses the enzyme beta-1,4-N-acetylgalactosaminyltransferase 3 that transfers N-acetylgalactosamine onto N-acetylglucosaminebeta-benzyl on protein epitopes (LDN-glycosylation). METHODS: To determine if B4GALNT3 is the causal gene, B4galnt3-/- mice were developed and serum levels of total sclerostin and LDN-glycosylated sclerostin were analysed and mechanistic studies were performed in osteoblast-like cells. Mendelian randomization was used to determine causal associations. FINDINGS: B4galnt3-/- mice had higher circulating sclerostin levels, establishing B4GALNT3 as a causal gene for circulating sclerostin levels, and lower bone mass. However, serum levels of LDN-glycosylated sclerostin were lower in B4galnt3-/- mice. B4galnt3 and Sost were co-expressed in osteoblast-lineage cells. Overexpression of B4GALNT3 increased while silencing of B4GALNT3 decreased the levels of LDN-glycosylated sclerostin in osteoblast-like cells. Mendelian randomization demonstrated that higher circulating sclerostin levels, genetically predicted by variants in the B4GALNT3 gene, were causally associated with lower BMD and higher risk of fractures but not with higher risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. Glucocorticoid treatment reduced B4galnt3 expression in bone and increased circulating sclerostin levels and this may contribute to the observed glucocorticoid-induced bone loss. INTERPRETATION: B4GALNT3 is a key factor for bone physiology via regulation of LDN-glycosylation of sclerostin. We propose that B4GALNT3-mediated LDN-glycosylation of sclerostin may be a bone-specific osteoporosis target, separating the anti-fracture effect of global sclerostin inhibition, from indicated cardiovascular side effects. FUNDING: Found in acknowledgements.

Assessment of the genetic and clinical determinants of hip fracture risk: Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomization study.

Hip fracture is the clinically most important fracture, but the genetic architecture of hip fracture is unclear. Here, we perform a large-scale hip fracture genome-wide association study meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization study using five cohorts from European biobanks. The results show that five genetic signals associate with hip fractures. Among these, one signal associates with falls, but not with bone mineral density (BMD), while four signals are in loci known to be involved in bone biology. Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrate a strong causal effect of decreased femoral neck BMD and moderate causal effects of Alzheimer's disease and having ever smoked regularly on risk of hip fractures. The substantial causal effect of decreased femoral neck BMD on hip fractures in both young and old subjects and in both men and women supports the use of change in femoral neck BMD as a surrogate outcome for hip fractures in clinical trials.

Endogenous DHEAS Is Causally Linked With Lumbar Spine Bone Mineral Density and Forearm Fractures in Women.

CONTEXT: A recent pooled analysis of four clinical trials demonstrated that treatment with dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) increases lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS-BMD) in women. The causal effect of endogenous adrenal-derived DHEA sulphate (DHEAS) on LS-BMD and fracture risk in women is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether circulating DHEAS is causally associated with LS-BMD and fracture risk in women. METHODS: A 2-sample Mendelian randomization study using genetic predictors of serum DHEAS derived from the largest available female-specific genome wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis (n = 8565). Genetic associations with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-derived BMD (n = 22 900) were obtained from female-specific GWAS summary statistics available from the Genetic Factors for Osteoporosis consortium while individual-level data of 238 565 women of white ancestry from the UK Biobank were used for associations with fractures (11 564 forearm fractures, 2604 hip fractures) and estimated heel BMD by ultrasound (eBMD). RESULTS: A 1 SD genetically instrumented increase in log serum DHEAS levels was associated with a 0.21 SD increase in LS-BMD (P = 0.01) and a 0.08 SD increase in eBMD (P < 0.001). Genetically predicted DHEAS decreased forearm fracture risk (odds ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.88 per SD increase in DHEAS) while no significant causal association with hip fractures was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically predicted serum DHEAS increases LS-BMD and decreases forearm fracture risk in women. Based on the results of the present study and previous randomized controlled trials of DHEA treatment, we propose that both endogenous adrenal-derived DHEA(S) and pharmacological DHEA treatment improve bone health in women.

RSPO3 is important for trabecular bone and fracture risk in mice and humans.

With increasing age of the population, countries across the globe are facing a substantial increase in osteoporotic fractures. Genetic association signals for fractures have been reported at the RSPO3 locus, but the causal gene and the underlying mechanism are unknown. Here we show that the fracture reducing allele at the RSPO3 locus associate with increased RSPO3 expression both at the mRNA and protein levels, increased trabecular bone mineral density and reduced risk mainly of distal forearm fractures in humans. We also demonstrate that RSPO3 is expressed in osteoprogenitor cells and osteoblasts and that osteoblast-derived RSPO3 is the principal source of RSPO3 in bone and an important regulator of vertebral trabecular bone mass and bone strength in adult mice. Mechanistic studies revealed that RSPO3 in a cell-autonomous manner increases osteoblast proliferation and differentiation. In conclusion, RSPO3 regulates vertebral trabecular bone mass and bone strength in mice and fracture risk in humans.

Serum Glycine Levels Are Associated With Cortical Bone Properties and Fracture Risk in Men.

CONTEXT: In a recent study a pattern of 27 metabolites, including serum glycine, associated with bone mineral density (BMD). OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations for serum and urinary glycine levels with BMD, bone microstructure, and fracture risk in men. METHODS: In the population-based Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Sweden study (men, 69-81 years) serum glycine and BMD were measured at baseline (n = 965) and 5-year follow-up (n = 546). Cortical and trabecular bone parameters of the distal tibia were measured at follow-up using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography. Urinary (n = 2682) glycine was analyzed at baseline. X-ray-validated fractures (n = 594) were ascertained during a median follow-up of 9.6 years. Associations were evaluated using linear regression (bone parameters) or Cox regression (fractures). RESULTS: Circulating glycine levels were inversely associated with femoral neck (FN)-BMD. A meta-analysis (n = 7543) combining MrOS Sweden data with data from 3 other cohorts confirmed a robust inverse association between serum glycine levels and FN-BMD (P = 7.7 × 10-9). Serum glycine was inversely associated with the bone strength parameter failure load in the distal tibia (P = 0.002), mainly as a consequence of an inverse association with cortical cross-sectional area and a direct association with cortical porosity. Both serum and urinary glycine levels predicted major osteoporotic fractures (serum: hazard ratio [HR] per SD increase = 1.22, 95% CI, 1.05-1.43; urine: HR = 1.13, 95% CI, 1.02-1.24). These fracture associations were only marginally reduced in models adjusted by FRAX with BMD. CONCLUSIONS: Serum and urinary glycine are indirectly associated with FN-BMD and cortical bone strength, and directly associated with fracture risk in men.

Association of Genetically Predicted Serum Estradiol With Risk of Thromboembolism in Men: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

CONTEXT: An association was recently reported between genetic markers related to high testosterone and increased risk of thromboembolism in men, but a possible causal role of estradiol for risk of thromboembolism in men remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to determine whether endogenous estradiol has a causal role in thromboembolism in men. METHODS: A 2-sample mendelian randomization study using gene-based genetic instruments assessed the association between endogenous estradiol genetically predicted by 22 variants in the aromatase CYP19A1 gene region and the risk of thromboembolism (5815 cases) in 170 593 unrelated men of White ancestry in the UK Biobank. The main outcome measure included thromboembolism based on self-reports, hospital episodes, and death. RESULTS: Endogenous estradiol genetically predicted by variants in the CYP19A1 gene region was inversely associated with the risk of thromboembolism (odds ratio per SD increase in estradiol 0.74; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). In contrast, genetic variants in the JMJD1C gene, used as a predictor of high endogenous testosterone, were associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism (odds ratio per SD increase in testosterone 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12-1.72). Subsequent explorative analyses evaluating potential repercussions of thromboembolism revealed that endogenous estradiol genetically predicted by variants in the CYP19A1 gene region was inversely associated with the risk of ischemic stroke (0.68; 95% CI, 0.49-0.95) but not myocardial infarction (0.97; 95% CI, 0.84-1.13). CONCLUSION: Genetically predicted estradiol was inversely associated with the risk of thromboembolism and ischemic stroke in men. The ratio between testosterone and estradiol, determined by CYP19A1 activity, may contribute to the overall impact of sex steroids on thromboembolism in men.

Improved prediction of fracture risk leveraging a genome-wide polygenic risk score.

BACKGROUND: Accurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction. METHODS: We examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors. RESULTS: A standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727-0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791-0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072. CONCLUSIONS: We generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of muscle weakness identifies 15 susceptibility loci in older men and women.

Low muscle strength is an important heritable indicator of poor health linked to morbidity and mortality in older people. In a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of 256,523 Europeans aged 60 years and over from 22 cohorts we identify 15 loci associated with muscle weakness (European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People definition: n = 48,596 cases, 18.9% of total), including 12 loci not implicated in previous analyses of continuous measures of grip strength. Loci include genes reportedly involved in autoimmune disease (HLA-DQA1 p = 4 × 10-17), arthritis (GDF5 p = 4 × 10-13), cell cycle control and cancer protection, regulation of transcription, and others involved in the development and maintenance of the musculoskeletal system. Using Mendelian randomization we report possible overlapping causal pathways, including diabetes susceptibility, haematological parameters, and the immune system. We conclude that muscle weakness in older adults has distinct mechanisms from continuous strength, including several pathways considered to be hallmarks of ageing.

Variation in the SERPINA6/SERPINA1 locus alters morning plasma cortisol, hepatic corticosteroid binding globulin expression, gene expression in peripheral tissues, and risk of cardiovascular disease.

The stress hormone cortisol modulates fuel metabolism, cardiovascular homoeostasis, mood, inflammation and cognition. The CORtisol NETwork (CORNET) consortium previously identified a single locus associated with morning plasma cortisol. Identifying additional genetic variants that explain more of the variance in cortisol could provide new insights into cortisol biology and provide statistical power to test the causative role of cortisol in common diseases. The CORNET consortium extended its genome-wide association meta-analysis for morning plasma cortisol from 12,597 to 25,314 subjects and from ~2.2 M to ~7 M SNPs, in 17 population-based cohorts of European ancestries. We confirmed the genetic association with SERPINA6/SERPINA1. This locus contains genes encoding corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG) and α1-antitrypsin. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analyses undertaken in the STARNET cohort of 600 individuals showed that specific genetic variants within the SERPINA6/SERPINA1 locus influence expression of SERPINA6 rather than SERPINA1 in the liver. Moreover, trans-eQTL analysis demonstrated effects on adipose tissue gene expression, suggesting that variations in CBG levels have an effect on delivery of cortisol to peripheral tissues. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses provided evidence that each genetically-determined standard deviation (SD) increase in morning plasma cortisol was associated with increased odds of chronic ischaemic heart disease (0.32, 95% CI 0.06-0.59) and myocardial infarction (0.21, 95% CI 0.00-0.43) in UK Biobank and similarly in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. These findings reveal a causative pathway for CBG in determining cortisol action in peripheral tissues and thereby contributing to the aetiology of cardiovascular disease.

Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study.

BACKGROUND: Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed "gSOS", and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N = 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r2 = 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention.