What are the odds? Poor compliance with UK loot box probability disclosure industry self-regulation.

Loot boxes are purchased in video games to obtain randomised rewards of varying value and are thus psychologically akin to gambling. Disclosing the probabilities of obtaining loot box rewards may reduce overspending, in a similar vein to related disclosure approaches in gambling. Presently, this consumer protection measure has been adopted as law only in the People's Republic of China (PRC). In other countries, the videogaming industry has generally adopted this measure as self-regulation. However, self-regulation conflicts with commercial interests and might not maximally promote public welfare. The loot box prevalence rate amongst the 100 highest-grossing UK iPhone games was 77% in mid-2021. The compliance rate with probability disclosure industry self-regulation was only 64.0%, significantly lower than that of PRC legal regulation (95.6%). In addition, UK games generally made insufficiently prominent and difficult-to-access disclosures both in-game and on the game's official website. Significantly fewer UK games disclosed probabilities on their official websites (21.3%) when compared to 72.5% of PRC games. Only one of 75 UK games (1.3%) adopted the most prominent disclosure format of automatically displaying the probabilities on the in-game purchase page. Policymakers should demand more accountable forms of industry self-regulation or impose direct legal regulation to ensure consumer protection.

Peer and Parental Social Norms as Determinants of Gambling Initiation: A Prospective Study.

PURPOSE: Despite the potential consequences of gambling during adolescence, the factors involved in the initiation of this behavior are relatively understudied. Using a longitudinal design, the present study analyzed the contribution of parental and peer norms to adolescent gambling initiation. METHODS: A sample of 440 adolescent non-gamblers (50.9% males, meanage = 14.85 [standard deviation = 1.41]) completed a baseline survey and a 1-year follow-up questionnaire. The baseline survey included assessments of perceived descriptive and injunctive norms from parents and peers, perceived parent and peer gambling severity, and susceptibility to peer pressure. A multivariate hierarchical logistic regression model was used to assess the contribution of baseline measures to adolescent gambling initiation at follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 440 non-gamblers assessed at baseline, 160 (36.4%) reported initiating gambling at follow-up. All the peer factors were prospectively associated with gambling initiation, while only the perceived injunctive norms of parents were associated with initiation. Higher susceptibility to peer pressure, perceived gambling by peers, and peer and parental approval of gambling at baseline were associated with higher odds of adolescent gambling initiation at follow-up. In contrast, the likelihood of gambling initiation among adolescents decreased as the perception of peer gambling severity increased. DISCUSSION: The identification of parental and peer factors associated with adolescent gambling initiation may provide support for relevant preventative interventions aimed at avoiding or delaying gambling initiation among adolescents. Specifically, to reduce the initiation of gambling, preventative programs should focus on helping adolescents to find strategies for resisting peer influences.

Designing Improved Safer Gambling Messages for Race and Sports Betting: What can be Learned from Other Gambling Formats and the Broader Public Health Literature?

Safer gambling messages are one potential input to a public health approach toward reducing gambling-related harm, and yet there is no strong evidence supporting current messages such as "gamble responsibly" or "keep the fun in the game". Furthermore, sports betting is increasing in popularity in multiple jurisdictions, such as Australia and the US, increasing the need to design effective messaging campaigns for race and sports betting. Compared to other gambling formats, such as electronic gambling machines, the level of potential skill involved in race and sports betting may raise unique issues regarding the design of effective messages. This review first highlights research from the related public health domains of alcohol and tobacco. Then, five potential areas for further messaging-based research in race and sports betting are discussed: teaching safer gambling practices, correcting gambling misperceptions, boosting conscious decision making, norm-based messages, and emotional messages. A broad approach to message design is encouraged, given the potential for individual differences in message receptivity, and for frequently-repeated messages to be ignored or cause negative psychological reactance.

Childhood use of coin pusher and crane grab machines, and adult gambling: A conceptual replication of Newall et al. (2021).

Background and aims: Youth gambling research mainly focuses on the illegal use of age-restricted machines, but coin pusher and crane grab machines are gambling machines that can be used by people of any age in the UK, and are also in use internationally. Previous cross-sectional evidence has associated recollected childhood usage of these machines with adult gambling participation and levels of problem gambling amongst adult gamblers. We attempted to conceptually replicate the findings of one of these studies (Newall et al., 2021), while addressing some limitations of that study. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 2,000 UK-based and -born participants aged 19-24 years. The measures were participants' recollected usage of coin pusher and crane grab machines as a child, whether they had gambled in the past 12-months or not, and the PGSI for past 12-month gamblers. Results: Overall, 5 of 7 tested associations were significant and in the hypothesized direction. Logistic regression models showed that adult gamblers were more likely to recollect using, and used at higher levels of frequency, coin pusher and crane grab machines, than non-gamblers. Then, negative binomial regression analysis showed that adults who recollected using crane grab machines at higher levels of frequency showed more gambling-related problems. Discussion and Conclusions: These results suggest that childhood usage of coin pusher and crane grab machines may act as an underappreciated risk factor for the development of gambling-related harm across the lifespan. This information may be considered for further youth gambling research and policy.

Safer gambling and consumer protection failings among 40 frequently visited cryptocurrency-based online gambling operators.

OBJECTIVE: Online gambling has increased the accessibility and range of gambling products available to people all over the world. This trend has been particularly noticeable in the United Kingdom. Cryptocurrency-based gambling is a new, largely unregulated, way to gamble online, which uses mostly anonymous blockchain-based technologies, such as Bitcoin. The present research investigated consumer protection features of 40 frequently visited and U.K.-accessible cryptocurrency-based online gambling operators. METHOD: A content analysis was performed by visiting all 40 cryptocurrency-based online operators and recording their safer gambling and consumer protection practices. Coded features included aspects of the sign-up process, features of any safer gambling pages, customer support practices, and Identity verification. RESULTS: Results revealed significant failings in the account registration process; none of the operators verified the identity of new users, and 35% required only an email or no personal information for sign-up. Overall, 37.5% of operators offered no safer gambling tools and a further 20% offered only one. Additionally, 64.7% of operators continued to email promotional material after being informed of a user's impaired control when gambling. Less than half of the analyzed operators held a valid license (47.5%), and none of the operators with an available deposit page required identity verification before enabling deposits. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the potential risks for young and vulnerable individuals, especially when a lack of identity verification is paired with the inherent anonymity of cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for greater policy and research attention toward cryptocurrency-based online gambling. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Opening Pandora's Loot Box: Weak Links Between Gambling and Loot Box Expenditure in China, and Player Opinions on Probability Disclosures and Pity-Timers.

Loot boxes are quasi-gambling virtual products in video games that provide randomised rewards of varying value. Previous studies in Western contexts have identified a positive correlation between loot box purchasing and problem gambling severity. A preregistered survey of People's Republic of China (PRC) video game players (N = 879) failed to replicate this correlation. We observed statistically significant but weak positive correlations between loot box expenditure and past-year gambling participation, and between loot box expenditure and impulsiveness. This study cannot prove that loot boxes are not disproportionately purchased by people with problem gambling symptomatology in the PRC or that PRC players are not potentially at risk of loot box-related harms. Instead, the evidence suggests that the relationship between loot boxes and gambling might be weaker in the PRC than in Western countries. We identified multiple unique factors about the PRC that might be affecting this relationship. For example, the lotteries are the only legally permitted form of gambling. More gamified electronic gambling products are unavailable. The limited availability of gambling meant that a low level of gambling participation (n = 87) was observed, which is a limitation of this study. Additionally, the PRC is presently the only country to legally require loot box probability disclosures as a consumer protection measure. Most loot box purchasers (84.6%) reported seeing loot box probability disclosures, but only 19.3% of this group reported consequently spending less money. Most loot box purchasers (86.9%) thought that pity-timers, which increase the winning probabilities of obtaining rarer rewards, are appropriate for implementation. Future loot box research should give greater consideration to differing cultural contexts and novel consumer protection measures.

Investigating racial bias within Australian rules football commentary.

International research has shown that live sports commentary exhibits racial bias. Specifically, non-White players are more likely to be praised in terms of their physicality, while White players are more likely to be praised in terms of their intellect and character. The current study, which utilised a quantitative content analysis design, examined whether the speech of AFL commentators exhibited racial bias. The study randomly selected 50 men's AFL game quarters from the 2019 AFL season and analysed 1368 applicable statements directed at 382 unique players. Based on prior research, a coding instrument was developed that incorporated three main categories (physical, cognitive, and character attributes), and six subcategories (physical ability, appearance, cognitive ability, intelligence, general character, and hard work). In contrast to the international literature, findings revealed that there were no significant between-race differences for each main attribute category. However, non-White players received a higher proportion of statements related to their physical ability, and a lower proportion of statements related to their appearance compared to White players. Non-White players also received a higher proportion of negative statements related to their cognitive ability compared to White players. There was no evidence found to suggest that players of any race were discussed in terms of their physical ability being innate, natural, or instinctual. Given the strong, but also dated, evidence showing racial bias within both American and European sports commentary, the current study provides only weak evidence for the existence of racial bias within contemporary AFL live commentary.

The Gamblification of Investing: How a New Generation of Investors Is Being Born to Lose.

Investing and gambling share key features, in that both involve risk, the coming together of two or more people, and both are voluntary activities. However, investing is generally a much better way than gambling for the average person to make long-run profits. This paper reviews evidence on two types of "gamblified" investment products where this advantage does not hold for investing: high-frequency stock trading and high-risk derivatives. This review defines a gamblified investment product as one that leads most investors to lose, that attracts people at risk of experiencing gambling-related harm, and that utilizes product design principles from gambling (either by encouraging a high frequency of use or by providing the allure of big lottery-like wins). The gamblification of investing produces novel challenges for the regulation of both financial markets and gambling.

Impact of the "when the fun stops, stop" gambling message on online gambling behaviour: a randomised, online experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Safer gambling messages are a common freedom-preserving method of protecting individuals from gambling-related harm. Yet, there is little independent and rigorous evidence assessing the effectiveness of safer gambling messages. In our study, we aimed to test the effect of the historically most commonly-used UK safer gambling message on concurrent gambling behaviour of people who gamble in the UK. METHODS: In this study, three preregistered, incentivised, and randomised online experiments, testing the UK's "when the fun stops, stop" message, were carried out via the crowdsourcing platform Prolific. Adults based in the UK who had previously participated in the gambling activities relevant to each experiment were eligible to participate. Experiments 1 and 3 involved bets on real soccer events, and experiment 2 used a commercially available online roulette game. Safer gambling message presence was varied between participants in each experiment. In experiment 2, exposed participants could be shown either a yellow or a black-and-white version of the safer gambling message. Participants were provided with a monetary endowment with which they were allowed to bet. Any of this money not bet was afterwards paid to participants as a bonus, in addition to the payouts from any winning bets. In experiment 2 participants had the opportunity to re-wager any winnings from the roulette game. The primary outcome in experiment 1 was participants' decisions to accept (or reject) a series of football bets, which varied in their specificity (and payoffs), and the primary outcomes of experiments 2 and 3 were the proportion of available funds bet, which were defined as the total amount of money bet by a participant out of the total that could have been bet. FINDINGS: Participants for all three experiments were recruited between May 17, 2019, and Oct 17, 2020. Of the 506 participants in experiment 1, 41·3% of available bets were made by the 254 participants in the gambling message condition, which was not significantly different (p=0·15, odds ratio 1·22 [95% CI 0·93 to 1·61]) to the 37·8% of available bets made by the 252 participants in the control condition. In experiment 2, the only credible difference between conditions was that the 501 participants in the condition with the yellow version of the gambling message bet 3·64% (95% Bayesian credibility interval 0·00% to 7·27%) more of available funds left over than the 499 participants in the control condition. There were no credible differences between the bets made by the 500 participants in the black-and-white gambling message condition and the other conditions. In experiment 3, there were no credible differences between the 502 participants in the gambling message condition and the 501 participants in the control condition, with the largest effect being a 5·87% (95% Bayesian credibility interval -1·44% to 13·20%) increase in the probability of betting everything in the gambling message condition. INTERPRETATION: In our study, no evidence was found for a protective effect of the most common UK safer gambling message. Alternative interventions should be considered as part of an evidence-based public health approach to reducing gambling-related harm. FUNDING: University of Warwick, British Academy and Leverhume, Swiss National Science Foundation.

House-edge information and a volatility warning lead to reduced gambling expenditure: Potential improvements to return-to-player percentages.

Cost-of-play information is one public health intervention recommended to help reduce gambling-related harm. In the UK, this information is given on electronic gambling machines in a format known as the "return-to-player", e.g., "This game has an average percentage payout of 90%." However, previous evidence suggests that this information could be improved by equivalently restating it in terms of the "house-edge", e.g., "This game keeps 10% of all money bet on average." A "volatility warning," stating that this information applies only in the statistical long-run, has also been recommended to help gamblers understand cost-of-play information. However, there is no evidence comparing these information provisions' effect on gamblers' behavior. An experiment tested US gamblers'(N = 2433) incentivized behavior in an online slot machine, where this information was manipulated between-participants along with a counter showing the total amount bet. Preregistered analyses showed that participants gambled significantly less when house-edge information or a volatility warning were shown compared to standard return-to-player information, with no effect of the total amount bet counter, and no significant interaction effects. However, these significant findings had small effect sizes, suggesting that a public health approach to gambling should not rely on informational provisions only. Subject to supportive evidence from more ecologically-valid designs such as field studies, these results suggest that improved cost-of-play information could lead to reduced rates of gambling expenditure and therefore benefit a public health approach to gambling.

A speed-of-play limit reduces gambling expenditure in an online roulette game: Results of an online experiment.

UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on speed-of-play or stakes. One recent policy proposal is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. Another policy proposal is to limit the maximum stakes on online casino games to £2, to match the current stake limit on electronic gambling machines. This research experimentally investigated the speed-of-play proposal subject to a £2 stake limit, in an online experiment using incentivized payouts based on £4 endowments and a commercial online roulette game, which was slowed-down in one condition to enforce a speed-of-play limit of one spin every 60 seconds. UK residents, aged 18 years and over and with experience in playing online roulette (N = 1,002), were recruited from an online crowdsourcing panel. In the slowed-down condition there was a credible reduction in the amount gambled. This effect occurred via a credible reduction in the mean number of spins which outweighed any potential increases in bet sizes. Speed-of-play limits may be effective in reducing gambling expenditure for online roulette.

Clarifying the relationship between coherence and accuracy in probability judgments.

Bayesian approaches presuppose that following the coherence conditions of probability theory makes probabilistic judgments more accurate. But other influential theories claim accurate judgments (with high "ecological rationality") do not need to be coherent. Empirical results support these latter theories, threatening Bayesian models of intelligence; and suggesting, moreover, that "heuristics and biases" research, which focuses on violations of coherence, is largely irrelevant. We carry out a higher-power experiment involving poker probability judgments (and a formally analogous urn task), with groups of poker novices, occasional poker players, and poker experts, finding a positive relationship between coherence and accuracy both between groups and across individuals. Both the positive relationship in our data, and past null results, are captured by a sample-based Bayesian approximation model, where a person's accuracy and coherence both increase with the number of samples drawn. Thus, we reconcile the theoretical link between accuracy and coherence with apparently negative empirical results.

Risk communication improvements for gambling: House-edge information and volatility statements.

OBJECTIVE: Some gambling product messages are designed to inform gamblers about the long-run cost of gambling, for example, "this game has an average percentage payout of 90%." This message is in the "return-to-player" format and is meant to convey that for every £100 bet about £90 will be paid out in prizes. Some previous research has found that restating this information in the "house-edge" format, for example, "this game keeps 10% of all money bet on average," is better understood by gamblers and reduces gamblers' perceived chances of winning. Here we additionally test another potential risk communication improvement: A "volatility statement" highlighting that return-to-player and house-edge percentages are long-run statistical averages, which may not be experienced in any short period of gambling. METHOD: Gambling information format and volatility statement presence were manipulated in an online experiment involving 2,025 U.K. gamblers. RESULTS: The house-edge format and the presence of volatility statements both additively reduced gamblers' perceived chances of winning. In terms of gamblers' understanding, house-edge messages were understood the best, but no consistent effect of volatility statements was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The return-to-player gambling messages in current widespread use can be improved by switching to the house-edge format and via the addition of a volatility statement. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices.

When deciding where to invest, individuals choose mutual funds based on recent past performance, despite standard mandated disclaimers that "past performance does not guarantee future results." Investors would receive better long-term returns by choosing funds with lower fees. We explored the impact of fees and past performance on realistic mutual fund selections across three preregistered repeated-choice experiments (N = 1,600), while manipulating the presence of disclaimers between participants. Participants persistently chased past performance despite the opportunity to learn about the futility of this strategy during 60 repeated decisions with feedback. The standard regulatory-mandated disclaimer did not help most participants, compared to giving no advice at all, and was even counter-productive for participants with low levels of financial literacy. An alternative disclaimer that explicitly highlighted the advantages of fee minimization reliably helped participants. We show how individuals who lack both financial literacy and prior investment experience are the most susceptible to making poor mutual fund choices and can benefit the most from behavioral interventions such as the new disclaimer tested here. We discuss how these results generalize into real-world investment decisions, and how to design more efficient disclaimers that can be used beyond investment choices. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

The stock market as a casino: Associations between stock market trading frequency and problem gambling.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Personal investors decrease their stock market investment returns by trading frequently, which the behavioral finance literature has primarily explained via investors' overconfidence and low levels of financial literacy. This study investigates whether problem gambling can help account for frequent trading in a sample of active gambler/investors, as suggestive of frequent trading being in part driven by a behavioral addiction to gambling-like activities. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study of 795 US-based participants, who reported both being active gamblers and holding stock market investments. Recollected stock trading activity (typical portfolio size, purchases and sales of stocks) was compared with scores on the Problem Gambling Severity Index, a financial literacy scale, and a measure of overconfidence. RESULTS: Self-reported relative stock portfolio turnover was positively associated with problem gambling scores. This association was robust to controls for financial literacy, overconfidence, and demographics, and occurred equally among investors of all self-reported portfolio sizes. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: This study provides support for the hypothesis that behavioral addiction to gambling-like activities is associated with frequent stock market trading. New investment products that increase the ease of trading may therefore be detrimental to some investors.

Structural characteristics of fixed-odds sports betting products.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A literature exists on the structural characteristics of electronic gambling machines (EGMs), which are design innovations that can promote spending excessive time and money on these games. Fixed-odds sports betting products, where bettors place sports bets against a bookmaker, have also seen significant innovations in recent years. Despite some differences between these gambling products, similar structural characteristics could also be relevant to sports betting. The aim was to review previous research on contemporary fixed-odds sports betting products, and to identify whether structural characteristics from the EGM literature are also relevant to sports betting. METHODS: Structural characteristics uncovered by two influential reviews of EGMs were identified, and their relevance to fixed-odds sports betting products discussed via a narrative review. RESULTS: Structural characteristics of payout interval and potential betting frequency (in-play betting), multiplier potential (accumulators, complex bets, multis), win probability and payout ratio (all bets), bettor involvement (custom sports betting products, cash out), skill required (all bets), and near-misses (accumulators, complex bets, multis) were all identified in modern fixed-odds sports betting products. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Fixed-odds sports betting products have increasingly incorporated structural characteristics previously found in EGMs. Future research could further assess the extent to which these structural characteristics contribute to fixed-odds sports bettors spending excessive amounts of time and money while betting. These findings can help guide further sports betting research, contribute to an improved understanding of the potential universality of gambling product design, and inform policy.