Effect of Short, Animated Video Storytelling on Maternal Knowledge and Satisfaction in the Perinatal Period in South Africa: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Innovative mobile health (mHealth) interventions can improve maternal knowledge, thereby supporting national efforts to reduce preventable maternal and child mortality in South Africa. Studies have documented a potential role for mobile video content to support perinatal health messaging, enhance maternal satisfaction, and overcome literacy barriers. Short, animated storytelling (SAS) is an innovative, emerging approach to mHealth messaging. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to measure the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge and user satisfaction for mothers enrolled in antenatal care programs at 2 public health facilities in the Tshwane District of South Africa. METHODS: We used a randomized controlled trial with a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. Participants were randomized 1:1 into Standard-of-Care (SOC) Control, and SAS Intervention groups. The intervention videos were delivered through WhatsApp, and 1 month later, participants responded to telephone surveys assessing their knowledge. The intervention group then participated in a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. RESULTS: We surveyed 204 participants. Of them, 49.5% (101/204) were aged between 25 and 34 years. Almost all participants self-identified as Black, with the majority (190/204, 93.2%) having completed secondary school. The mean overall knowledge score was 21.92/28. We observed a slight increase of 0.28 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -0.58 to 1.16) in the overall knowledge score in the intervention arm. We found that those with secondary education or above scored higher than those with only primary education by 2.24 (95% UI 0.76-4.01). Participants aged 35 years or older also scored higher than the youngest age group (18-24 years) by 1.83 (95% CI 0.39-3.33). Finally, the nested user satisfaction evaluation revealed high maternal satisfaction (4.71/5) with the SAS video series. CONCLUSIONS: While the SAS videos resulted in high user satisfaction, measured knowledge gains were small within a participant population that was already receiving perinatal health messages through antenatal clinics. The higher knowledge scores observed in older participants with higher education levels suggest that boosting maternal knowledge in younger mothers with lower education levels should continue to be a public health priority in South Africa. Given the high maternal satisfaction among the SAS video-users in this study, policy makers should consider integrating similar approaches into existing, broad-reaching perinatal health programs, such as MomConnect, to boost satisfaction and potentially enhance maternal engagement. While previous studies have shown the promise of animated video health education, most of this research has been conducted in high-income countries. More research in underresourced settings is urgently needed, especially as access to mobile technology increases in the Global South. Future studies should explore the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge in hard-to-reach populations with limited access to antenatal care, although real-world logistical challenges persist when implementing studies in underresourced South African populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202203673222680; https://tinyurl.com/362cpuny.

Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 identifies adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) as a priority population for HIV prevention, and recommends differentiating intervention portfolios geographically based on local HIV incidence and individual risk behaviours. We estimated prevalence of HIV risk behaviours and associated HIV incidence at health district level among AGYW living in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed 46 geospatially-referenced national household surveys conducted between 1999-2018 across 13 high HIV burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Female survey respondents aged 15-29 years were classified into four risk groups (not sexually active, cohabiting, non-regular or multiple partner[s] and female sex workers [FSW]) based on reported sexual behaviour. We used a Bayesian spatio-temporal multinomial regression model to estimate the proportion of AGYW in each risk group stratified by district, year, and five-year age group. Using subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence produced by countries with support from UNAIDS, we estimated new HIV infections in each risk group by district and age group. We then assessed the efficiency of prioritising interventions according to risk group. Data consisted of 274,970 female survey respondents aged 15-29. Among women aged 20-29, cohabiting (63.1%) was more common in eastern Africa than non-regular or multiple partner(s) (21.3%), while in southern countries non-regular or multiple partner(s) (58.9%) were more common than cohabiting (23.4%). Risk group proportions varied substantially across age groups (65.9% of total variation explained), countries (20.9%), and between districts within each country (11.3%), but changed little over time (0.9%). Prioritisation based on behavioural risk, in combination with location- and age-based prioritisation, reduced the proportion of population required to be reached in order to find half of all expected new infections from 19.4% to 10.6%. FSW were 1.3% of the population but 10.6% of all expected new infections. Our risk group estimates provide data for HIV programmes to set targets and implement differentiated prevention strategies outlined in the Global AIDS Strategy. Successfully implementing this approach would result in more efficiently reaching substantially more of those at risk for infections.

Early diagnostic indicators of dengue versus other febrile illnesses in Asia and Latin America (IDAMS study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook. FUNDING: EU's Seventh Framework Programme. TRANSLATIONS: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Gaps in antimicrobial stewardship programmes in Asia: a survey of 10 countries.

Objectives: To determine antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programme practices in Asian secondary- and tertiary-care hospitals. Methods: AMS programme team members within 349 hospitals from 10 countries (Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam) completed a questionnaire via a web-based survey link. The survey contained questions as to whether 12 core components deemed essential for AMS programmes were implemented. Results: Overall, 47 (13.5%) hospitals fulfilled all core AMS programme components. There was a mean positive response rate (PRR) of 85.6% for the responding countries in relation to a formal hospital leadership statement of support for AMS activities, but this was not matched by budgeted financial support for AMS activities (mean PRR 57.1%). Mean PRRs were ≥80.0% for the core AMS team comprising a physician or other leader responsible for AMS activities, a pharmacist and infection control and microbiology personnel. Most hospitals had access to a timely and reliable microbiology service (mean PRR 90.4%). Facility-specific antibiotic treatment guidelines for common infections (mean PRR 78.7%) were in place more often than pre-authorization and/or prospective audit and feedback systems (mean PRR 66.5%). In terms of AMS monitoring and reporting, PRRs of monitoring specific antibiotic use, regularly publishing AMS outcome measures, and the existence of a hospital antibiogram were 75.1%, 64.4% and 77.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Most hospitals participating in this survey did not have AMS programmes fulfilling the requirements for gold standard AMS programmes in hospital settings. Urgent action is required to address AMS funding and resourcing deficits.

Deriving and interpreting population size estimates for adolescent and young key populations at higher risk of HIV transmission: Men who have sex with men and females who sell sex.

Population sizes of adolescent (15- to 19-years) and young (20 to 24-years) key populations at risk for HIV transmission are essential for developing effective national HIV control strategies. We present new population size estimates of adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex from 184 countries in nine UNICEF regions using UNAIDS published population size estimations submitted by national governments to derive 15-24-year-old population proportions based on the size of equivalent adult general populations. Imputed sizes based on regional estimates were used for countries or regions where adult proportion estimates were unavailable. Proportions were apportioned to adolescents and young adults based on age at sexual debut, by adjusting for the cumulative percentage of the sexually active population at each age for sex. Among roughly 69.5 million men who have sex with men, 12 million are under the age of 24 years, of whom 3 million are adolescents. There are an estimated 1.4 million adolescent and 3.7 million young females who sell sex. Roughly four and a half million adolescent men who have sex with men and females who sell sex would benefit from early HIV interventions. These population size estimates suggest there are roughly 17 million adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex who need HIV prevention services and social support. These data provide evidence for national and international programs to determine how many adolescent and young key populations need essential health services and are living with HIV and other infections. Age disaggregated population sizes inform epidemic models, which increasingly use age-sex structures and are often used to obtain and allocate resources and human capacity and to plan critical prevention, treatment, and infection control programs.

A model for reconstructing trends and distribution in age at first sex from multiple household surveys with reporting biases.

Age at first sex (AFS) is a key indicator for monitoring sexual behaviour risk for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Reporting of AFS data, however, suffers social-desirability and recall biases which obscure AFS trends and inferences from the data. We illustrated AFS reporting biases using data from nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1992 and 2019 in Ethiopia, Guinea, Senegal, and Zambia. Based on this, we proposed a time-to-event, interval censored model for the distribution of AFS that uses overlapping reports by the same birth cohort in successive surveys to adjust for reporting biases. The three-parameter log-skew-logistic distribution described the asymmetric and nonmonotonic hazard exhibited by empirical AFS data. In cross-validation analysis, incorporating a term for reporting bias as a function of age at report improved model predictions for the trend in AFS over birth cohorts. In the four example applications, the quartiles of the AFS distribution were 16-23 years for Ethiopian and Senegalese women and 15-20 years for Guinean and Zambian men. Median AFS increased by around one to 1.5 years between the 1960 and 1989 birth cohorts for all four datasets. During adolescent and young adult ages, men tended to report an earlier AFS while women tended to report an older AFS than when asked in their late twenties. Above age 30, both male and female respondents tended to report older AFS compared to when surveyed in their late twenties. Simulations validated that the model recovered the trend in AFS in the presence of reporting biases. When there were biases, at least three surveys were needed to obtain reliable estimate for a 20-year trend. Mis-specified reference age at which AFS reporting is assumed unbiased did not affect the trend estimate but resulted in biased median AFS in the most recent birth cohorts.

Trends and country-level variation in age at first sex in sub-Saharan Africa among birth cohorts entering adulthood between 1985 and 2020.

BACKGROUND: Debuting sexual intercourse marks exposure to pregnancy or fatherhood and sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), sexual debut varies according to cultural, religious, and economic factors, and encouraging delay has been a longstanding component of behavioural HIV prevention strategies. Age at first sex (AFS) is routinely collected in national household surveys, but data are affected by reporting biases, limiting utility to monitor trends and guide sexual health interventions. METHODS: We collated individual-level data from nationally-representative household surveys to analyse timing and national trends in AFS in 42 SSA countries. We used a log-skew-logistic distribution to characterize the time to AFS in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, providing estimates of the sexual debut rate by sex, age, time, and country. We statistically adjusted for reporting biases by comparing AFS reported by the same birth cohorts in multiple survey rounds, allowing different reporting biases by sex and country. RESULTS: Median AFS in 2015 ranged from 15.8 among Angolan women to 25.3 among men in Niger. AFS was younger for women than men in 37/40 countries. The gap was largest for Sahel region countries and minimal in southern African countries. The distribution of female AFS was asymmetric with half debuting sex in an age range of 3.9 years [IQR 3.4-5.0 across countries]. Median AFS increased slightly between 1985 and 2020, ranging 0.84 years [IQR 0.11-1.55] and 0.79 [IQR -0.23-1.98] for females and males, respectively. The gender gap changed little over time in most countries. Female teens often reported higher AFS compared to when asked in their late twenties while male teens reported lower AFS; both sexes recalled a higher AFS in older ages compared to their thirties. CONCLUSIONS: AFS increased slightly in most SSA countries, but changes were modest relative to large and persistent variation between countries and sexes, indicating relatively entrenched socio-cultural practices around sexual debut. Sexual health, family planning, and HIV/STI prevention services should adapt to local practices rather than focusing interventions to change AFS. These estimates for rates of sexual debut provide data to guide programmatic prioritization and implementation of sexual health services.

Network models to evaluate vaccine strategies towards herd immunity in COVID-19.

Vaccination remains a critical element in the eventual solution to the COVID-19 public health crisis. Many vaccines are already being mass produced and supplied in many countries. However, the COVID-19 vaccination programme will be the biggest in history. Reaching herd immunity will require an unprecedented mass immunisation campaign that will take several months and millions of dollars. Using different network models, COVID-19 pandemic dynamics of different countries can be recapitulated such as in Italy. Stochastic computational simulations highlight that peak epidemic sizes in a population strongly depend on the network structure. Assuming a vaccine efficacy of at least 80% in a mass vaccination program, at least 70% of a given population should be vaccinated to obtain herd immunity, independently of the network structure. If the vaccine efficacy reports lower levels of efficacy in practice, then the coverage of vaccination would be needed to be even higher. Simulations suggest that the "Ring of Vaccination" strategy, vaccinating susceptible contact and contact of contacts, would prevent new waves of COVID -19 meanwhile a high percent of the population is vaccinated.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children.

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Serum Concentration of the Phytohormone Abscisic Acid Is Associated With Immune-Regulatory Mediators and Is a Potential Biomarker of Disease Severity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

COPD and asthma are two distinct but sometimes overlapping diseases exhibiting varying degrees and types of inflammation on different stages of the disease. Although several biomarkers are defined to estimate the inflammatory endotype and stages in these diseases, there is still a need for new markers and potential therapeutic targets. We investigated the levels of a phytohormone, abscisic acid (ABA) and its receptor, LANCL2, in COPD patients and asthmatics. In addition, PPAR-γ that is activated by ABA in a ligand-binding domain-independent manner was also included in the study. In this study, we correlated ABA with COPD-propagating factors to define the possible role of ABA, in terms of immune regulation, inflammation, and disease stages. We collected blood from 101 COPD patients, 52 asthmatics, and 57 controls. Bronchoscopy was performed on five COPD patients and 29 controls. We employed (i) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and HPLC to determine the ABA and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase levels, respectively; (ii) real-time PCR to quantify the gene expression of LANCL2 and PPAR-γ; (iii) Flow cytometry to quantify adipocytokines; and (iv) immunoturbidimetry and ELISA to measure CRP and cytokines, respectively. Finally, a multinomial regression model was used to predict the probability of using ABA as a biomarker. Blood ABA levels were significantly reduced in COPD patients and asthmatics compared to age- and gender-matched normal controls. However, PPAR-γ was elevated in COPD patients. Intriguingly, ABA was positively correlated with immune-regulatory factors and was negatively correlated with inflammatory markers, in COPD. Of note, ABA was increased in advanced COPD stages. We thereby conclude that ABA might be involved in regulation of COPD pathogenesis and might be regarded as a potential biomarker for COPD stages.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing results from 13 hospitals in Viet Nam: VINARES 2016-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse data from 2016-17 from a hospital-based antimicrobial resistance surveillance with national coverage in a network of hospitals Viet Nam. METHODS: We analysed data from 13 hospitals, 3 less than the dataset from the 2012-13 period. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing data from the clinical microbiology laboratories from samples sent in for routine diagnostics were used. Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute 2018 guidelines were used for antimicrobial susceptibility testing interpretation. WHONET was used for data entry, management and analysis. RESULTS: 42,553 deduplicated isolates were included in this analysis; including 30,222 (71%) Gram-negative and 12,331 (29%) Gram-positive bacteria. 8,793 (21%) were from ICUs and 7,439 (18%) isolates were from invasive infections. Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were the most frequently detected species with 9,092 (21%) and 4,833 isolates (11%), respectively; followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (3,858 isolates - 9.1%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (3,870 isolates - 9%). Bacteria were mainly isolated from sputum (8,798 isolates - 21%), blood (7,118 isolates - 17%) and urine (5,202 isolates - 12%). Among Gram-positives 3,302/4,515 isolates (73%) of S. aureus were MRSA; 99/290 (34%) of Enterococcus faecium were resistant to vancomycin; and 58% (663/1,136) of Streptococcus pneumoniae proportion were reduced susceptible to penicillin. Among Gram-negatives 59% (4,085/6,953) and 40% (1,186/2,958) of E. coli and K. pneumoniae produced ESBL and 29% (376/1,298) and 11% (961/8,830) were resistant to carbapenems, respectively. 79% (2855/3622) and 45% (1,514/3,376) of Acinetobacter spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were carbapenem resistant, respectively. 88% (804/911) of Haemophilus influenzae were ampicillin resistant and 18/253 (7%) of Salmonella spp. and 7/46 (15%) of Shigella spp. were resistant to fluoroquinolones. The number of isolates from which data were submitted in the 2016-2017 period was twice as high as in 2012-2013. AMR proportions were higher in 2016-2017 for most pathogen-antimicrobial combinations of interest including imipenem-resistant A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa and Enterobacterales. CONCLUSIONS: The data show alarmingly high and increasing resistant proportions among important organisms in Viet Nam. AMR proportions varied across hospital types and should be interpreted with caution because existing sampling bias and missing information on whether isolates were community or hospital acquired. Affordable and scalable ways to adopt a sample- or case-based approach across the network should be explored and clinical data should be integrated to help provide more accurate inferences of the surveillance data.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing and antibiotic consumption results from 16 hospitals in Viet Nam: The VINARES project 2012-2013.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a hospital-based surveillance network with national coverage for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antibiotic consumption in Viet Nam. METHODS: A 16-hospital network (Viet Nam Resistance: VINARES) was established and consisted of national and provincial-level hospitals across the country. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing results from routine clinical diagnostic specimens and antibiotic consumption data in Defined Daily Dose per 1000 bed days (DDD/1000 patient-days) were prospectively collected and analysed between October 2012 and September 2013. RESULTS: Data from a total of 24 732 de-duplicated clinical isolates were reported. The most common bacteria were: Escherichia coli (4437 isolates, 18%), Klebsiella spp. (3290 isolates, 13%) and Acinetobacter spp. (2895 isolates, 12%). The hospital average antibiotic consumption was 918 DDD/1000 patient-days. Third-generation cephalosporins were the most frequently used antibiotic class (223 DDD/1000 patient-days, 24%), followed by fluoroquinolones (151 DDD/1000 patient-days, 16%) and second-generation cephalosporins (112 DDD/1000 patient-days, 12%). Proportions of antibiotic resistance were high: 1098/1580 (69%) Staphylococcus aureus isolates were methicillin-resistant (MRSA); 115/344 isolates (33%) and 90/358 (25%) Streptococcus pneumoniae had reduced susceptibility to penicillin and ceftriaxone, respectively. A total of 180/2977 (6%) E. coli and 242/1526 (16%) Klebsiella pneumoniae were resistant to imipenem, respectively; 602/1826 (33%) Pseudomonas aeruginosa were resistant to ceftazidime and 578/1765 (33%) to imipenem. Of Acinetobacter spp. 1495/2138 (70%) were resistant to carbapenems and 2/333 (1%) to colistin. CONCLUSIONS: These data are valuable in providing a baseline for AMR among common bacterial pathogens in Vietnamese hospitals and to assess the impact of interventions.

Discovery of Leptospira spp. seroreactive peptides using ORFeome phage display.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is the most common zoonotic disease worldwide. The diagnostic performance of a serological test for human leptospirosis is mainly influenced by the antigen used in the test assay. An ideal serological test should cover all serovars of pathogenic leptospires with high sensitivity and specificity and use reagents that are relatively inexpensive to produce and can be used in tropical climates. Peptide-based tests fulfil at least the latter two requirements, and ORFeome phage display has been successfully used to identify immunogenic peptides from other pathogens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Two ORFeome phage display libraries of the entire Leptospira spp. genomes from five local strains isolated in Malaysia and seven WHO reference strains were constructed. Subsequently, 18 unique Leptospira peptides were identified in a screen using a pool of sera from patients with acute leptospirosis. Five of these were validated by titration ELISA using different pools of patient or control sera. The diagnostic performance of these five peptides was then assessed against 16 individual sera from patients with acute leptospirosis and 16 healthy donors and was compared to that of two recombinant reference proteins from L. interrogans. This analysis revealed two peptides (SIR16-D1 and SIR16-H1) from the local isolates with good accuracy for the detection of acute leptospirosis (area under the ROC curve: 0.86 and 0.78, respectively; sensitivity: 0.88 and 0.94; specificity: 0.81 and 0.69), which was close to that of the reference proteins LipL32 and Loa22 (area under the ROC curve: 0.91 and 0.80; sensitivity: 0.94 and 0.81; specificity: 0.75 and 0.75). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This analysis lends further support for using ORFeome phage display to identify pathogen-associated immunogenic peptides, and it suggests that this technique holds promise for the development of peptide-based diagnostics for leptospirosis and, possibly, of vaccines against this pathogen.

Efficacy and safety of elbasvir/grazoprevir in participants with hepatitis C virus genotype 1, 4, or 6 infection from the Asia-Pacific region and Russia: Final results from the randomized C-CORAL study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Although treatment with direct-acting antivirals has dramatically improved morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus infection, universal access to these medicines has been slow in the Asia-Pacific region and Russia. This study evaluated efficacy and safety of elbasvir/grazoprevir in participants with hepatitis C virus infection from Asia-Pacific countries and Russia (C-CORAL). METHODS: C-CORAL was a phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled study (NCT02251990). Treatment-naive, HIV-negative, cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic participants with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1, 4, or 6 infection were randomized to elbasvir 50 mg/grazoprevir 100 mg once daily for 12 weeks (immediate-treatment group) or placebo followed by deferred treatment with elbasvir/grazoprevir (deferred-treatment group). The primary efficacy outcome was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks, and the primary safety outcome was a comparison between the immediate-treatment group and placebo phase of the deferred-treatment group. RESULTS: A total of 489 participants were randomized (immediate-treatment group, n = 366; deferred-treatment group, n = 123). Sustained virologic response at 12 weeks in the combined immediate/deferred-treatment groups was 94.4% (459/486; 95% confidence interval = 92.4-96.5%). Sustained virologic response at 12 weeks was 98.2% in participants with genotype 1b, 91.9% with genotype 1a, and 66.7% with genotype 6 infection. Similar rates of adverse events and drug-related adverse events were seen in the immediate-treatment group versus placebo phase of the deferred-treatment group (51.0% vs 50.4% and 21.4% vs 21.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Elbasvir/grazoprevir for 12 weeks represents an effective and well-tolerated treatment option for treatment-naive people with genotype 1 infection from Asia-Pacific countries and Russia.

Dengue Fever Detecting System Using Peak-detection of Data from Contactless Doppler Radar.

Infectious diseases, such as dengue fever and Middle East respiratory syndrome, have become prevalent worldwide in recent times. To conduct highly accurate and effective infection screening, we are working on the development of a contactless infection screening system using Doppler radar and thermography. In our previous work, three parameters (face temperature, heartbeat rate, and respiration rate) were used to judge whether a subject was infected. However, facial temperature measurements may be vastly different from temperatures measured at the axilla owing to influence from the immediate environment. In this study, heartbeat rate (HR), respiration rate (RR), and standard deviation of heartbeat interval (SDHI) were used to quantify the infection screening system without using facial temperature as a parameter. We found that respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) diminished in patients who had dengue fever. We gathered data from 47 patients with dengue fever using a 10-GHz Doppler radar system at the National Hospital of Tropical Diseases (NHTD) in Hanoi, Vietnam. To evaluate the accuracy, the data of these patients were compared to that of 23 unaffected subjects. We observed that a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was effective at detecting the dengue fever conditions, and the detection accuracy was approximately 97.6%.

Parameter Estimation in Mathematical Models of Viral Infections Using R.

In recent years, mathematical modeling approaches have played a central role in understanding and quantifying mechanisms in different viral infectious diseases. In this approach, biology-based hypotheses are expressed via mathematical relations and then tested based on empirical data. The simulation results can be used to either identify underlying mechanisms and provide predictions of infection outcomes or to evaluate the efficacy of a treatment.Conducting parameter estimation for mathematical models is not an easy task. Here we detail an approach to conduct parameter estimation and to evaluate the results using the free software R. The method is applicable to influenza virus dynamics at different complexity levels, widening experimentalists' capabilities in understanding their data. The parameter estimation approach presented here can be also applied to other viral infections or biological applications.

Neuraminidase Inhibitors in Influenza Treatment and Prevention⁻Is It Time to Call It a Day?

Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for the treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable due to constraints in the ability to control for confounders and to explore unobserved areas of the drug effects. For this study, we used a mathematical model of influenza infection which allowed transparent analyses. The model recreated the oseltamivir effects and indicated that: (i) the efficacy was limited by design, (ii) a 99% efficacy could be achieved by using high drug doses (however, taking high doses of drug 48 h post-infection could only yield a maximum of 1.6-day reduction in the time to symptom alleviation), and (iii) contributions of oseltamivir to epidemic control could be high, but were observed only in fragile settings. In a typical influenza infection, NAIs' efficacy is inherently not high, and even if their efficacy is improved, the effect can be negligible in practice.

High-resolution epidemic simulation using within-host infection and contact data.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations. METHODS: Using experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows to express individual differences relevant to the transmission processes. This approach is illustrated with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV). RESULTS: The results showed that a within-host infection model can reproduce EBOV's transmission parameters obtained from population data. At the same time, population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can be expressed using network generating algorithm. This framework opens a vast opportunity to investigate individual roles of factors involved in the epidemic processes. Estimating EBOV's reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting cautions on estimates unadjusted for contact pattern. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that vaccination conducted in a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to strongly reduce epidemic size. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low critical vaccination coverage of 33% cannot ensure epidemic extinction but could reduce the number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Experimental data on the within-host infection have been able to capture upfront key transmission parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. The population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modelled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics are underway.

The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling.

From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's characteristics, and estimated transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models. The pneumonic plague epidemic curve exhibited multiple peaks, coinciding with sporadic introductions of new bubonic cases. Optimal climate conditions for rat flea to flourish were observed during the epidemic. Estimate of the plague basic reproduction number during the large wave of the epidemic was high, ranging from 5 to 7 depending on model assumptions. The incubation and infection periods for bubonic and pneumonic plague were 4.3 and 3.4 days and 3.8 and 2.9 days, respectively. Parameter estimation suggested that even with a small fraction of the population exposed to infected rat fleas (1/10,000) and a small probability of transition from a bubonic case to a secondary pneumonic case (3%), the high human-to-human transmission rate can still generate a large outbreak. Controlling rodent and fleas can prevent new index cases, but managing human-to-human transmission is key to prevent large-scale outbreaks.