Socio-ecological drivers of public conservation voting: Restoring gray wolves to Colorado, USA.

Understanding factors that influence real-world public conservation behaviors is critical for developing successful conservation policies and management actions. Citizens of Colorado, USA recently passed a ballot initiative to restore the gray wolf to its former range within the state. The >3 million votes offer an unprecedented opportunity to test factors that influenced decisions to support or oppose this conservation action. We created spatial linear regression models to assess the relationship between support for wolf restoration and (1) the presidential vote, (2) distance to conservation intervention (i.e., proposed wolf reintroduction and existing wolves), and measures of (3) livelihood and (4) demographics using precinct-level data. Our results demonstrate the strong relationship between support for wolf restoration and political support for the Democratic candidate for president in the 2020 election, and highlight how other factors, including increased age, participation in elk hunting, and proximity to the reintroduction region were associated with less support. Our findings underscore the critical role of politicization on public conservation action and the need to develop outreach and engagement strategies to mitigate polarization.

Social-psychological correlates of personal-sphere and diffusion behavior for wildscape gardening.

Achieving conservation outcomes requires concerted engagement from many people across diverse societies. However, many conservation practitioners struggle to engage new audiences. Research suggests one effective strategy to reach nonengaged individuals is to encourage interested conservation actors to share information, provide resources and assistance, and organize local events to recruit others; we call these "diffusion behaviors." Previous studies suggest few conservation actors who engage in personal-sphere PEB also engage in diffusion PEB, potentially because these behaviors have unique barriers which have yet to be identified. We investigated if there are different psychosocial drivers of diffusion and personal-sphere PEB by surveying residents in Colorado, USA about their personal-sphere wildscape behaviors (e.g. planting native plants) and diffusion wildscape behaviors (e.g. helping a friend plant native plants). Including diffusion-specific psychosocial variables led to better predictions of both personal-sphere and diffusion PEB. Diffusion-specific self-efficacy, social and environmental response efficacy, and reputational concerns about perceived competence were significant predictors of diffusion behavior. Diffusion-specific environmental response efficacy and injunctive norms enforced through sanctioning significantly predicted personal-sphere behavior. Personal-sphere self-efficacy and dynamic norm beliefs predicted both behavior types. Our findings suggest that research should consider personal-sphere and diffusion PEB as distinct domains and should investigate the power of diffusion-specific perceptions. Conservation outreach programs seeking to encourage diffusion of PEB may benefit from designing programming to try to change these perceptions.

Using spatially explicit, time-dependent analysis to understand how social factors influence conservation outcomes.

Conservation across human-dominated landscapes requires an understanding of the social and ecological factors driving outcomes. Studies that link conservation outcomes to social and ecological factors have examined temporally static patterns. However, there may be different social and ecological processes driving increases and decreases in conservation outcomes that can only be revealed through temporal analyses. Through a case study of the invasion of Falcataria moluccana in Hawaii, we examined the association of social factors with increases and decreases in invader distributions over time and space. Over 7 years, rates of invader decrease varied substantially (66-100%) relative to social factors, such as building value, whether land was privately or publically owned, and primary residence by a homeowner, whereas rates of increase varied only slightly (<0.1-3.6%) relative to such factors. These findings suggest that links between social factors and invasion in the study system may be driven more by landowners controlling existing invasive species, rather than by landowners preventing the spread of invasive species. We suggest that spatially explicit, time-dependent analyses provide a more nuanced understanding of the way social factors influence conservation outcomes. Such an understanding can help managers develop outreach programs and policies targeted at different types of landowners in human-dominated landscapes.

Uso de un Análisis Espacialmente Explícito y Dependiente del Tiempo para Entender cómo Influyen los Factores Sociales sobre los Resultados de la Conservación Resumen La conservación dentro de los paisajes dominados por humanos requiere de un entendimiento de los factores sociales y ecológicos que afectan los resultados. Los estudios que conectan los resultados de la conservación con los factores sociales y ecológicos han examinado temporalmente los patrones estáticos. Sin embargo, puede haber diferentes procesos sociales y ecológicos que produzcan un incremento o una disminución en los resultados de la conservación, los cuales sólo pueden ser revelados por medio de los análisis temporales. Examinamos la asociación entre los factores sociales y el incremento y la disminución de la distribución de una invasión en el tiempo y el espacio con el estudio de caso de la invasión de Falcataria moluccana en Hawái. A lo largo de siete años las tasas de disminución de la invasión variaron considerablemente (66-100%) en relación con los factores sociales, como el valor de construcción, si la tierra era pública o privada, y si era la residencia principal del propietario, mientras que las tasas de incremento variaron solamente un poco (<0.1-3.6%) en relación con dichos factores. Estos hallazgos sugieren que las conexiones entre los factores sociales y la invasión en el sistema de estudio podrían ser causados más por los propietarios que controlan a las especies invasoras existentes en lugar de ser causados por los propietarios que previenen la expansión de las especies invasoras. Sugerimos que los análisis espacialmente explícitos y dependientes del tiempo proporcionan un entendimiento más matizado de cómo los factores sociales influyen sobre los resultados de la conservación. Dicho entendimiento puede ayudar a los administradores a desarrollar programas y políticas de compromiso con la comunidad enfocadas en diferentes tipos de propietarios en los paisajes dominados por el humano.

Landowners' Perspectives on Coordinated, Landscape-Level Invasive Species Control: The Role of Social and Ecological Context.

To achieve biodiversity gains, landowner engagement in coordinated invasive species control programs across private lands is needed. Understanding landowners' perspectives toward such coordinated control efforts is crucial to facilitating engagement. We conducted in person and mail surveys of 68 landowners in and adjacent to the area of a proposed invasive predator control program in New Zealand. We find that, similar to previous studies, landowners consider the potential socioeconomic and ecological benefits of invasive species control and express a strong desire to enhance native biodiversity. However, we also find that landowners take into account the complexity of the local social and ecological context in which a program will unfold in three ways: they consider (1) the level of contribution by other landowners and urban residents who are benefiting from collective control efforts; (2) the potential for the program to upset the local "ecological balance", leading to increases in other pests; and (3) the probability that the program will be successful given the likelihood of others participating and control tactics being effective. We suggest that managers of coordinated invasive species control efforts may benefit from devoting time and resources toward addressing beliefs about social and ecological context, rather than solely providing financial subsidies and information about control tactics or the impacts of invasive species.

Trade-offs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo.

Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the influence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in the state of New Hampshire, USA. We found that the mean optimal rotation lengths across all sites was 94 yr (standard deviation of sample means = 44 yr), with a large cluster of short optimal rotation lengths that were calculated at high elevations in the White Mountain National Forest. Using a regression tree approach, we found that timber growth, annual storage of carbon, and the difference between annual albedo in mature forest vs. a post-harvest landscape were the most important variables that influenced optimal rotation. Additionally, we found that the choice of a baseline albedo value for each site significantly altered the optimal rotation lengths across all sites, lowering the mean rotation to 59 yr with a high albedo baseline, and increasing the mean rotation to 112 yr given a low albedo baseline. Given these results, we suggest that utilizing temperate forests in New Hampshire for climate mitigation purposes through carbon storage and the cessation of harvest is appropriate at a site-dependent level that varies significantly across the state.

Incorporating carbon storage into the optimal management of forest insect pests: a case study of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman) in the New Jersey Pinelands.

Forest insect pest disturbance is increasing in certain areas of North America as many insect species, such as the southern pine beetle, expand their range due to a warming climate. Because insect pests are beginning to occupy forests that are managed for multiple uses and have not been managed for pests before, it is becoming increasingly important to determine how forests should be managed for pests when non-timber ecosystem services are considered in addition to traditional costs and revenues. One example of a service that is increasingly considered in forest management and that may affect forest pest management is carbon sequestration. This manuscript seeks to understand whether the incorporation of forest carbon sequestration into cost-benefit analysis of different forest pest management strategies affects the financially optimal strategy. We examine this question through a case study of the southern pine beetle (SPB) in a new area of SPB expansion, the New Jersey Pinelands National Reserve (NJPR). We utilize a forest ecology and economics model and include field data from the NJPR as well as outbreak probability statistics from previous years. We find under the majority of scenarios, incorporating forest carbon sequestration shifts the financially optimal SPB management strategy from preventative thinning toward no management or reactionary management in forest stands in New Jersey. These results contradict the current recommended treatment strategy for SPB and signify that the inclusion of multiple ecosystem services into a cost-benefit analysis may drastically alter which pest management strategy is economically optimal.