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Energy system modelling can be used to provide scenario-based insights in energy system transition pathways. However, data accessibility is a common barrier for the model representation of energy systems, both regarding existing infrastructure, as well as planned developments consistent with current policies. This paper describes the 'Global Transmission Database', the first global dataset covering existing and planned electricity transmission developments between countries and selected regions. The dataset can be used as a starting point for the representation of cross-regional electricity grids globally in energy system models and other computational tools. All data is collected from publicly available sources and combined into a single machine-readable format for convenient application.
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Background: Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly used to support long-term planning at national, regional, or continental scales. The importance of recognising uncertainty in energy system modelling is regularly commented on but there is little practical guidance on how to best incorporate existing techniques, such as global sensitivity analysis, despite some good applications in the literature. Methods: In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidelines for conducting a global sensitivity analysis of an ESOM, aiming to remove barriers to adopting this approach. With a pedagogical intent, we begin by exploring why you should conduct a global sensitivity analysis. We then describe how to implement a global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method in an ESOM using a sequence of simple illustrative models built using the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) framework, followed by a realistic example. Results: Results show that the global sensitivity analysis identifies influential parameters that drive results in the simple and realistic models, and identifies uninfluential parameters which can be ignored or fixed. We show that global sensitivity analysis can be applied to ESOMs with relative ease using freely available open-source tools. The results replicate the findings of best-practice studies from the field demonstrating the importance of including all parameters in the analysis and avoiding a narrow focus on particular parameters such as technology costs. Conclusions: The results highlight the benefits of performing a global sensitivity analysis for the design of energy system optimisation scenarios. We discuss how the results can be interpreted and used to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system modelling studies.
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This paper describes OSeMOSYS Global, an open-source, open-data model generator for creating global electricity system models for an active global modelling community. This version of the model generator is freely available and can be used to create interconnected electricity system models for both the entire globe and for any geographically diverse subset of the globe. Compared to other existing global models, OSeMOSYS Global allows for full user flexibility in determining the time slice structure and geographic scope of the model and datasets, and is built using the widely used fully open-source OSeMOSYS energy system model. This paper describes the data sources, structure and use of OSeMOSYS Global, and provides illustrative workflow results.
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Energy system modeling can be used to develop internally-consistent quantified scenarios. These provide key insights needed to mobilise finance, understand market development, infrastructure deployment and the associated role of institutions, and generally support improved policymaking. However, access to data is often a barrier to starting energy system modeling, especially in developing countries, thereby causing delays to decision making. Therefore, this article provides data that can be used to create a simple zero-order energy system model for a range of developing countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America, which can act as a starting point for further model development and scenario analysis. The data are collected entirely from publicly available and accessible sources, including the websites and databases of international organisations, journal articles, and existing modeling studies. This means that the datasets can be easily updated based on the latest available information or more detailed and accurate local data. As an example, these data were also used to calibrate a simple energy system model for Kenya using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) and three stylized scenarios (Fossil Future, Least Cost and Net Zero by 2050) for 2020-2050. The assumptions used and the results of these scenarios are presented in the appendix as an illustrative example of what can be done with these data. This simple model can be adapted and further developed by in-country analysts and academics, providing a platform for future work.
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Electrical generation in Jordan currently relies on imported fossil fuels. In the past, most imported fossil fuels were subsidised by neighbouring countries through grants and aid. This has led to a regulated market, with subsidised low-cost electrical energy consumers, and the government being the sole buyer and seller of electricity. With the ageing of the national electrical infrastructure, political instability in the region, and lack of funds for direct investment, other options needed to be pursued. Long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) were granted to Independent Power Producers (IPP) to encourage investment in capacity and infrastructure. In addition, long-term fuel contracts were signed to secure steady flow of primary fuel sources. Over the past few years, renewable energy penetration has increased rapidly, but without proper planning or taking into consideration long term PPA and fuel contracts. Data in regard to the current infrastructure, renewable energy technology, signed energy commitments and system operation assumptions are described in this article, which may be used for modelling and analysis. The Data were collected from annual reports from the different energy related entities in Jordan.