Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Overall Survival in Multiple System Atrophy.

Background: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a devastating disease characterized by a variable combination of motor and autonomic symptoms. Previous studies identified numerous clinical factors to be associated with shorter survival. Objective: To enable personalized patient counseling, we aimed at developing a risk model of survival based on baseline clinical symptoms. Methods: MSA patients referred to the Movement Disorders Unit in Innsbruck, Austria, between 1999 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty for variable selection were performed to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed to estimate the 7 years overall survival probability. The performance of the predictive model was validated and calibrated internally using bootstrap resampling and externally using data from the prospective European MSA Study Group Natural History Study. Results: A total of 210 MSA patients were included in this analysis, of which 124 patients died. The median survival was 7 years. The following clinical variables were found to significantly affect overall survival and were included in the nomogram: age at symptom onset, falls within 3 years of onset, early autonomic failure including orthostatic hypotension and urogenital failure, and lacking levodopa response. The time-dependent area under curve for internal and external validation was >0.7 within the first 7 years of the disease course. The model was well calibrated showing good overlap between predicted and actual survival probability at 7 years. Conclusion: The nomogram is a simple tool to predict survival on an individual basis and may help to improve counseling and treatment of MSA patients.

Pathogenic Huntingtin Repeat Expansions in Patients with Frontotemporal Dementia and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

We examined the role of repeat expansions in the pathogenesis of frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) by analyzing whole-genome sequence data from 2,442 FTD/ALS patients, 2,599 Lewy body dementia (LBD) patients, and 3,158 neurologically healthy subjects. Pathogenic expansions (range, 40-64 CAG repeats) in the huntingtin (HTT) gene were found in three (0.12%) patients diagnosed with pure FTD/ALS syndromes but were not present in the LBD or healthy cohorts. We replicated our findings in an independent collection of 3,674 FTD/ALS patients. Postmortem evaluations of two patients revealed the classical TDP-43 pathology of FTD/ALS, as well as huntingtin-positive, ubiquitin-positive aggregates in the frontal cortex. The neostriatal atrophy that pathologically defines Huntington's disease was absent in both cases. Our findings reveal an etiological relationship between HTT repeat expansions and FTD/ALS syndromes and indicate that genetic screening of FTD/ALS patients for HTT repeat expansions should be considered.

The natural history of multiple system atrophy: a prospective European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a fatal and still poorly understood degenerative movement disorder that is characterised by autonomic failure, cerebellar ataxia, and parkinsonism in various combinations. Here we present the final analysis of a prospective multicentre study by the European MSA Study Group to investigate the natural history of MSA. METHODS: Patients with a clinical diagnosis of MSA were recruited and followed up clinically for 2 years. Vital status was ascertained 2 years after study completion. Disease progression was assessed using the unified MSA rating scale (UMSARS), a disease-specific questionnaire that enables the semiquantitative rating of autonomic and motor impairment in patients with MSA. Additional rating methods were applied to grade global disease severity, autonomic symptoms, and quality of life. Survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier analysis and predictors were identified in a Cox regression model. Group differences were analysed by parametric tests and non-parametric tests as appropriate. Sample size estimates were calculated using a paired two-group t test. FINDINGS: 141 patients with moderately severe disease fulfilled the consensus criteria for MSA. Mean age at symptom onset was 56·2 (SD 8·4) years. Median survival from symptom onset as determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis was 9·8 years (95% CI 8·1-11·4). The parkinsonian variant of MSA (hazard ratio [HR] 2·08, 95% CI 1·09-3·97; p=0·026) and incomplete bladder emptying (HR 2·10, 1·02-4·30; p=0·044) predicted shorter survival. 24-month progression rates of UMSARS activities of daily living, motor examination, and total scores were 49% (9·4 [SD 5·9]), 74% (12·9 [8·5]), and 57% (21·9 [11·9]), respectively, relative to baseline scores. Autonomic symptom scores progressed throughout the follow-up. Shorter symptom duration at baseline (OR 0·68, 0·5-0·9; p=0·006) and absent levodopa response (OR 3·4, 1·1-10·2; p=0·03) predicted rapid UMSARS progression. Sample size estimation showed that an interventional trial with 258 patients (129 per group) would be able to detect a 30% effect size in 1-year UMSARS motor examination decline rates at 80% power. INTERPRETATION: Our prospective dataset provides new insights into the evolution of MSA based on a follow-up period that exceeds that of previous studies. It also represents a useful resource for patient counselling and planning of multicentre trials.

Presentation, diagnosis, and management of multiple system atrophy in Europe: final analysis of the European multiple system atrophy registry.

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a Parkinson's Disease (PD)-like α-synucleinopathy clinically characterized by dysautonomia, parkinsonism, cerebellar ataxia, and pyramidal signs in any combination. We aimed to determine whether the clinical presentation of MSA as well as diagnostic and therapeutic strategies differ across Europe and Israel. In 19 European MSA Study Group centres all consecutive patients with a clinical diagnosis of MSA were recruited from 2001 to 2005. A standardized minimal data set was obtained from all patients. Four-hundred thirty-seven MSA patients from 19 centres in 10 countries were included. Mean age at onset was 57.8 years; mean disease duration at inclusion was 5.8 years. According to the consensus criteria 68% were classified as parkinsonian type (MSA-P) and 32% as cerebellar type (MSA-C) (probable MSA: 72%, possible MSA: 28%). Symptomatic dysautonomia was present in almost all patients, and urinary dysfunction (83%) more common than symptomatic orthostatic hypotension (75%). Cerebellar ataxia was present in 64%, and parkinsonism in 87%, of all cases. No significant differences in the clinical presentation were observed between the participating countries. In contrast, diagnostic work up and therapeutic strategies were heterogeneous. Less than a third of patients with documented orthostatic hypotension or neurogenic bladder disturbance were receiving treatment. This largest clinical series of MSA patients reported so far shows that the disease presents uniformly across Europe. The observed differences in diagnostic and therapeutic management including lack of therapy for dysautonomia emphasize the need for future guidelines in these areas.

Health-related quality of life in multiple system atrophy.

Although multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a neurodegenerative disorder leading to progressive disability and decreased life expectancy, little is known about patients' own evaluation of their illness and factors associated with poor health-related quality of life (Hr-QoL). We, therefore, assessed Hr-QoL and its determinants in MSA. The following scales were applied to 115 patients in the European MSA-Study Group (EMSA-SG) Natural History Study: Medical Outcome Study Short Form (SF-36), EQ-5D, Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Mini-Mental state examination (MMSE), Unified MSA Rating Scale (UMSARS), Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) Parkinson's disease staging scale, Composite Autonomic Symptom Scale (COMPASS), and Parkinson's Disease Sleep Scale (PDSS). Forty-six percent of patients had moderate to severe depression (BDI > or = 17); Hr-QoL scores on the SF-36 and EQ-5D were significantly impaired. Pain, the only domain with similar scores in MSA and published PD patients, was reported more frequently in patients with MSA-P (predominantly parkinsonian motor subtype) than MSA-C (predominantly cerebellar motor subtype; 76% vs. 50%; P = 0.005). Hr-QoL scores correlated most strongly with UMSARS motor, COMPASS, and BDI scores but not with MMSE scores, age at onset, or disease duration. The COMPASS and UMSARS activities of daily living scores were moderate-to-strong predictors for the SF-36 physical summary score and the BDI and UMSARS motor scores for the SF-36 mental summary score. This report is the first study to show that Hr-QoL is significantly impaired in MSA. Although not all possible factors related to impaired Hr-QoL in MSA could be assessed, autonomic dysfunction, motor impairment, and depression were most closely associated with poor Hr-QoL, and therapeutic management, therefore, should concentrate upon these aspects of the disease.