Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lung ultrasound patterns in paediatric pneumonia in Mozambique and Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: Improved pneumonia diagnostics are needed, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Lung ultrasound (LUS) is a promising point-of-care imaging technology for diagnosing pneumonia. The objective was to explore LUS patterns associated with paediatric pneumonia. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational study among children aged 2 to 23 months with World Health Organization Integrated Management of Childhood Illness chest-indrawing pneumonia and among children without fast breathing, chest indrawing or fever (no pneumonia cohort) at two district hospitals in Mozambique and Pakistan. We assessed LUS and chest radiograph (CXR) examinations, and viral and bacterial nasopharyngeal carriage, and performed a secondary analysis of LUS patterns. RESULTS: LUS demonstrated a range of distinctive patterns that differed between children with and without pneumonia and between children in Mozambique versus Pakistan. The presence of LUS consolidation or interstitial patterns was more common in children with chest-indrawing pneumonia than in those without pneumonia. Consolidations were also more common among those with only bacterial but no viral carriage detected (50.0%) than among those with both (13.0%) and those with only virus detected (8.3%; p=0.03). LUS showed high interrater reliability among expert LUS interpreters for overall determination of pneumonia (κ=0.915), consolidation (κ=0.915) and interstitial patterns (κ=0.901), but interrater reliability between LUS and CXR for detecting consolidations was poor (κ=0.159, Pakistan) to fair (κ=0.453, Mozambique). DISCUSSION: Pattern recognition was discordant between LUS and CXR imaging modalities. Further research is needed to define and standardise LUS patterns associated with paediatric pneumonia and to evaluate the potential value of LUS as a reference standard.

Associations between Household-Level Exposures and All-Cause Diarrhea and Pathogen-Specific Enteric Infections in Children Enrolled in Five Sentinel Surveillance Studies.

Diarrheal disease remains a major cause of childhood mortality and morbidity causing poor health and economic outcomes. In low-resource settings, young children are exposed to numerous risk factors for enteric pathogen transmission within their dwellings, though the relative importance of different transmission pathways varies by pathogen species. The objective of this analysis was to model associations between five household-level risk factors-water, sanitation, flooring, caregiver education, and crowding-and infection status for endemic enteric pathogens in children in five surveillance studies. Data were combined from 22 sites in which a total of 58,000 stool samples were tested for 16 specific enteropathogens using qPCR. Risk ratios for pathogen- and taxon-specific infection status were modeled using generalized linear models along with hazard ratios for all-cause diarrhea in proportional hazard models, with the five household-level variables as primary exposures adjusting for covariates. Improved drinking water sources conferred a 17% reduction in diarrhea risk; however, the direction of its association with particular pathogens was inconsistent. Improved sanitation was associated with a 9% reduction in diarrhea risk with protective effects across pathogen species and taxa of around 10-20% risk reduction. A 9% reduction in diarrhea risk was observed in subjects with covered floors, which were also associated with decreases in risk for zoonotic enteropathogens. Caregiver education and household crowding showed more modest, inconclusive results. Combining data from diverse sites, this analysis quantified associations between five household-level exposures on risk of specific enteric infections, effects which differed by pathogen species but were broadly consistent with hypothesized transmission mechanisms. Such estimates may be used within expanded water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) programs to target interventions to the particular pathogen profiles of individual communities and prioritize resources.