Seismic and thermal precursors of crater collapses and overflows at Stromboli volcano.

Lava overflows are highly hazardous phenomena that can occur at Stromboli. They can destabilize the crater area and the "Sciara del Fuoco" unstable slope, formed by several sector collapses, which can generate potentially tsunamigenic landslides. In this study, we have identified precursors of the October-November 2022 effusive crisis through seismic and thermal camera measurements. We analyzed the lava overflow on October 9, which was preceded by a crater-rim collapse, and the overflow on November 16. In both cases, seismic precursors anticipating the overflow onset have been observed. The analysis of the seismic and thermal data led to the conclusion that the seismic precursors were caused by an escalating degassing process from the eruptive vent, which climaxed with the overflows. Volcano deformation derived from ground-based InSAR and strainmeter data showed that inflation of the crater area accompanied the escalating degassing process up to the beginning of the lava overflows. The inflation of the crater area was especially evident in the October 9 episode, which also showed a longer seismic precursor compared to the November 16 event (58 and 40 min respectively). These results are important for understanding Stromboli's eruptive mechanisms and open a perspective for early warning of potentially dangerous phenomena.

Shifts in the eruptive styles at Stromboli in 2010-2014 revealed by ground-based InSAR data.

Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) is an efficient technique for capturing short, subtle episodes of conduit pressurization in open vent volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), because it can detect very shallow magma storage, which is difficult to identify using other methods. This technique allows the user to choose the optimal radar location for measuring the most significant deformation signal, provides an exceptional geometrical resolution, and allows for continuous monitoring of the deformation. Here, we present and model ground displacements collected at Stromboli by GBInSAR from January 2010 to August 2014. During this period, the volcano experienced several episodes of intense volcanic activity, culminated in the effusive flank eruption of August 2014. Modelling of the deformation allowed us to estimate a source depth of 482 ± 46 m a.s.l. The cumulative volume change was 4.7 ± 2.6 × 10(5) m(3). The strain energy of the source was evaluated 3-5 times higher than the surface energy needed to open the 6-7 August eruptive fissure. The analysis proposed here can help forecast shifts in the eruptive style and especially the onset of flank eruptions at Stromboli and at similar volcanic systems (e.g. Etna, Piton de La Fournaise, Kilauea).