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1.
Resusc Plus ; 18: 100651, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38711911

RESUMO

Aim: The optimal timing of adrenaline administration after defibrillation in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and an initial shockable rhythm is unknown. We investigated the association between the defibrillation-to-adrenaline interval and clinical outcomes. Methods: Between 2011 and 2020, we enrolled 1,259,960 patients with OHCA into a nationwide prospective population-based registry in Japan. After applying exclusion criteria, 20,905 patients with an initial shockable rhythm documented at emergency medical services (EMS) arrival who received adrenaline after defibrillation were eligible for this study. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to predict favourable short-term outcomes: prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), 30-day survival, or a favourable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2) at 30 days. Patients were categorised into 2-minute defibrillation-to-adrenaline intervals up to 18 min, or more than 18 min. Results: At 30 days, 1,618 patients (8%) had a favourable neurological outcome. The defibrillation-to-adrenaline interval in these patients was significantly shorter than in patients with an unfavourable neurological outcome [8 (5-12) vs 11 (7-16) minutes; P < 0.001]. The proportion of patients with prehospital ROSC, 30-day survival, or a favourable neurological outcome at 30 days decreased as the defibrillation-to-adrenaline interval increased (P < 0.001 for trend). Multivariable analysis revealed that a defibrillation-to-adrenaline interval of > 6 min was an independent predictor of worse prehospital ROSC, 30-day survival, or neurological outcome at 30 days when compared with an interval of 4-6 min. Conclusion: A longer defibrillation-to-adrenaline interval was significantly associated with worse short-term outcomes in patients with OHCA and an initial shockable rhythm.

2.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 13(4): e031394, 2024 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38362855

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: International consensus on cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and emergency cardiovascular care science and treatment recommendations (CoSTR) have reported updates on CPR maneuvers every 5 years since 2000. However, few national population-based studies have investigated the comprehensive effectiveness of those updates for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to shockable rhythms. The primary objective of the present study was to determine whether CPR based on CoSTR 2005 or 2010 was associated with improved outcomes in Japan, as compared with CPR based on Guidelines 2000. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the All-Japan Utstein Registry between 2005 and 2015, we included 73 578 adults who had shockable out-of-hospital cardiac arrest witnessed by bystanders or emergency medical service responders. The study outcomes over an 11-year period were compared between 2005 of the Guidelines 2000 era, from 2006 to 2010 of the CoSTR 2005 era, and from 2011 to 2015 of the CoSTR 2010 era. In the bystander-witnessed group, the adjusted odds ratios for favorable neurological outcomes at 30 days after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by enrollment year increased year by year (1.19 in 2006, and 3.01 in 2015). Similar results were seen in the emergency medical service responder-witnessed group and several subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with CPR maneuvers for shockable out-of-hospital cardiac arrest recommended in the Guidelines 2000, CPR maneuver updates in CoSTR 2005 and 2010 were associated with improved neurologically intact survival year by year in Japan. Increased public awareness and greater dissemination of basic life support may be responsible for the observed improvement in outcomes. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/; Unique identifier: 000009918.


Assuntos
Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Adulto , Humanos , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/métodos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/diagnóstico , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Estudos de Coortes , Japão/epidemiologia , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/métodos , Sistema de Registros , Hospitais
5.
Resuscitation ; 186: 109779, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36963560

RESUMO

AIM OF THE STUDY: Defibrillation plays a crucial role in early return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and shockable rhythm. Prehospital adrenaline administration increases the probability of prehospital ROSC. However, little is known about the relationship between number of prehospital defibrillation attempts and neurologically favourable survival in patients treated with and without adrenaline. METHODS: Using a nationwide Japanese OHCA registry database from 2006 to 2020, 1,802,084 patients with OHCA were retrospectively analysed, among whom 81,056 with witnessed OHCA and initial shockable rhythm were included. The relationship between the number of defibrillation attempts before hospital admission and neurologically favourable survival rate (cerebral performance category score of 1 or 2) at 1 month was evaluated with subgroup analysis for patients treated with and without adrenaline. RESULTS: At 1 month, 18,080 (22.3%) patients had a cerebral performance category score of 1 or 2. In the study population, the probability of prehospital ROSC and favourable neurological survival rate were inversely associated with number of defibrillation attempts. Similar trends were observed in patients treated without adrenaline, whereas a greater number of defibrillation attempts was counterintuitively associated with favourable neurological survival rate in patients treated with prehospital adrenaline. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, a greater number of prehospital defibrillation attempts was associated with lower neurologically favourable survival at 1 month in patients with OHCA and shockable rhythm. However, an increasing number of shocks (up to the 4th shock) was associated with better neurological outcomes when considering only patients treated with adrenaline.


Assuntos
Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida , Epinefrina/uso terapêutico , Sistema de Registros
7.
Circ Rep ; 4(10): 449-457, 2022 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36304434

RESUMO

Background: Recent guidelines for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) recommend prehospital administration of aspirin and nitroglycerin for ACS patients. However, there is no clear evidence to support this. We investigated the benefits and harms of prehospital administration of aspirin and nitroglycerin by non-physician healthcare professionals in patients with suspected ACS. Methods and Results: We searched the PubMed database and used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to assess the certainty of evidence. Three retrospective studies for aspirin and 1 for nitroglycerin administered in the prehospital setting to patients with acute myocardial infarction were included. Prehospital aspirin administration was associated with significantly lower 30-day and 1-year mortality compared with aspirin administration after arrival at hospital, with odds ratios (OR) of 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.99) and 0.47 (95% CI 0.36-0.62), respectively. Prehospital nitroglycerin administration was also associated with significantly lower 30-day and 1-year mortality compared with no prehospital administration (OR 0.34 [95% CI 0.24-0.50] and 0.38 [95% CI 0.29-0.50], respectively). The certainty of evidence was very low in both systematic reviews. Conclusions: Our systematic reviews suggest that prehospital administration of aspirin and nitroglycerin by non-physician healthcare professionals is beneficial for patients with suspected ACS, although the certainty of evidence is very low. Further investigation is needed to determine the benefit of the prehospital administration of these agents.

8.
Acute Med Surg ; 9(1): e794, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36285106

RESUMO

Aim: In Japan, no training course is dedicated to postcardiac arrest care (PCAC), including venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO); thus, faculty members of the Japanese Circulation Society developed an original, comprehensive PCAC training course. This report reviews the development, implementation, and refinement of this PCAC training course. Methods: We examined the preserved data from the Japanese Circulation Society PCAC training courses between 2014 and 2020. Data related to the learning content and number of the attendees and instructors were collected and summarized. Results: Sixteen courses were held between August 2014 and February 2020, before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A total of 677 health care providers participated: 351 doctors, 225 nurses, 62 perfusionists, five emergency medical professionals, and two pharmacists. Thirty-two attendees' data were missing. The core learning contents of all the courses included a standardized postcardiac arrest algorithm, targeted temperature management, VA-ECMO cannulation skills, and postcannulation management. Concerning curriculum evolution, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation simulation, postarrest neurological examination and monitoring, and ultrasound-guided Seldinger technique training were added in the 4th, 5th, and 13th courses, respectively. Conclusion: The Japanese Circulation Society PCAC training course has been developed and refined to provide an organized, comprehensive opportunity for health care providers to acquire specific knowledge and skills in PCAC and VA-ECMO.

9.
Circ Rep ; 4(9): 393-398, 2022 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36120483

RESUMO

Background: In the management of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), system delays for reperfusion therapy are still a matter of concern. We investigated the impact of prehospital activation of the catheterization laboratory in the management of STEMI patients. Methods and Results: This is a systematic review of observational studies. A search was conducted of the PubMed database from inception to July 2020 to identify articles for inclusion in the study. The critical outcomes were short- and long-term mortality. The important outcome was door-to-balloon time. The GRADE approach was used to assess the certainty of the evidence. Seven studies assessed short-term mortality; 1,541 were assigned to the prehospital activation (PH) group and 1,191 were assigned to the emergency department activation (ED) group. There were 26 fewer deaths per 1,000 patients in the PH group. Three studies assessed long-term mortality; 713 patients were assigned to the PH group and 1,026 were assigned to the ED group. There were 54 fewer deaths per 1,000 patients among the PH group. Five studies assessed door-to-balloon time; 959 were assigned to the PH group and 631 to the ED group. Door-to-balloon time was 33.1 min shorter in the PH group. Conclusions: Prehospital activation of the catheterization laboratory resulted in lower mortality and shorter door-to-balloon time for patients with suspected STEMI outside of a hospital.

10.
Circ Rep ; 4(8): 335-344, 2022 Aug 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36032381

RESUMO

Background: In Japan, oxygen is commonly administered during the acute phase of myocardial infarction (MI) to patients without oxygen saturation monitoring. In this study we assessed the effects of supplemental oxygen therapy, compared with ambient air, on mortality and cardiac events by synthesizing evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of patients with suspected or confirmed acute MI. Methods and Results: PubMed was systematically searched for full-text RCTs published in English before June 21, 2020. Two reviewers independently screened the search results and appraised the risk of bias. The estimates for each outcome were pooled using a random-effects model. In all, 2,086 studies retrieved from PubMed were screened. Finally, 7,322 patients from 9 studies derived from 4 RCTs were analyzed. In-hospital mortality in the oxygen and ambient air groups was 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively (risk ratio [RR] 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-2.10]); 0.8% and 0.5% of patients, respectively, experienced recurrent MI (RR 0.44; 95% CI 0.12-1.54), 1.5% and 1.6% of patients, respectively, experienced cardiac shock (RR 1.10; 95% CI 0.77-1.59]), and 2.4% and 2.0% of patients, respectively, experienced cardiac arrest (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.43-1.94). Conclusions: Routine supplemental oxygen administration may not be beneficial or harmful, and high-flow oxygen may be unnecessary in normoxic patients in the acute phase of MI.

11.
Circ Rep ; 4(7): 289-297, 2022 Jul 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35860351

RESUMO

Background: The aim of this study was to assess and discuss the diagnostic accuracy of prehospital ECG interpretation through systematic review and meta-analyses. Methods and Results: Relevant literature published up to July 2020 was identified using PubMed. All human studies of prehospital adult patients suspected of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in which prehospital electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation by paramedics or computers was evaluated and reporting all 4 (true-positive, false-positive, false-negative, and true-negative) values were included. Meta-analyses were conducted separately for the diagnostic accuracy of prehospital ECG interpretation by paramedics (Clinical Question [CQ] 1) and computers (CQ2). After screening, 4 studies for CQ1 and 6 studies for CQ2 were finally included in the meta-analysis. Regarding CQ1, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 95.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 82.5-99.0%) and 95.8% (95% CI 82.3-99.1%), respectively. Regarding CQ2, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 85.4% (95% CI 74.1-92.3%) and 95.4% (95% CI 87.3-98.4%), respectively. Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that the diagnostic accuracy of paramedic prehospital ECG interpretations is favorable, with high pooled sensitivity and specificity, with an acceptable estimated number of false positives and false negatives. Computer-assisted ECG interpretation showed high pooled specificity with an acceptable estimated number of false positives, whereas the pooled sensitivity was relatively low.

12.
Circ Rep ; 4(6): 241-247, 2022 Jun 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35774074

RESUMO

Background: This study assessed the diagnostic performance of the 0-hour/1-hour (0/1-h) algorithm to rule in and rule out acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) for suspected acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation, as recommended in the 2015 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline. Methods and Results: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy (PRISMA-DTA) guidelines, a systematic review was conducted using the PubMed database from inception to March 31, 2020. We included any article published in English investigating the diagnostic performance of the ESC 0/1-h algorithm for diagnosing MI in patients with chest pain visiting the ED. Of 651 studies identified as potentially available for the study, 7 studies including 16 databases were analyzed. A meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the 0/1-h algorithm using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTn) with 6 observational databases showed a pooled sensitivity of 99.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 98.5-99.7%) and a pooled specificity of 90.1% (95% CI 80.7-95.2%). A meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of 10 observational databases of the ESC 0/1-h algorithm using hs-cTn revealed a pooled sensitivity of 99.3% (95% CI 96.9-99.9%) and a pooled specificity of 91.7% (95% CI 83.5-96.1%). Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that the ESC 0/1-h algorithm can effectively rule in and rule out patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI.

13.
Circ Rep ; 4(5): 187-193, 2022 May 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35600724

RESUMO

Background: To achieve early reperfusion therapy for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), proper and prompt patient transportation and activation of the catheterization laboratory are required. We investigated the efficacy of prehospital 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) acquisition and destination hospital notification in patients with STEMI. Methods and Results: This is a systematic review of observational studies. We searched the PubMed database from inception to March 2020. Two reviewers independently performed literature selection. The critical outcome was short-term mortality. The important outcome was door-to-balloon (D2B) time. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. For the critical outcome, 14 studies with 29,365 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Short-term mortality was significantly lower in the group with prehospital 12-lead ECG acquisition and destination hospital notification than in the control group (odds ratio 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.85; P<0.0001). For the important outcome, 10 studies with 2,947 patients were included in the meta-analysis. D2B time was significantly shorter in the group with prehospital 12-lead ECG acquisition and destination hospital notification than in the control group (mean difference -26.24; 95% CI -33.46, -19.02; P<0.0001). Conclusions: Prehospital 12-lead ECG acquisition and destination hospital notification is associated with lower short-term mortality and shorter D2B time than no ECG acquisition or no notification among patients with suspected STEMI outside of a hospital.

14.
Circ Rep ; 4(3): 109-115, 2022 Mar 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35342837

RESUMO

Background: Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is now widely accepted. Recent guidelines have focused on total ischemic time, because shorter total ischemic time is associated with a more favorable prognosis. The door-in to door-out (DIDO) time, defined as time from arrival at a non-PCI-capable hospital to leaving for a PCI-capable hospital, may affect STEMI patient prognosis. However, a relevant meta-analysis is lacking. Methods and Results: We searched PubMed for clinical studies comparing short-term (30-day and in-hospital) mortality rates of STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI with DIDO times of ≤30 vs. >30 min. Two investigators independently screened the search results and extracted the data. Random effects estimators with weights calculated by the inverse variance method were used to determine pooled risk ratios. The search retrieved 1,260 studies; of these, 2 retrospective cohort studies (15,596 patients) were analyzed. In the DIDO time ≤30 and >30 min groups, the primary endpoint (i.e., in-hospital or 30-day mortality) occurred for 51 of 1,794 (2.8%) and 831 of 13,802 (6.0%) patients, respectively. The incidence of the primary endpoint was significantly lower in the DIDO time ≤30 min group (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.60). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that a DIDO time ≤30 min is associated with a lower short-term mortality rate. However, further larger systematic reviews and meta-analyses are needed to validate our findings.

15.
Circ Rep ; 3(7): 368-374, 2021 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34250277

RESUMO

Background: The 2020 American Heart Association Guidelines for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care recommend that comatose patients with return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest have targeted temperature management (TTM). However, the duration of TTM remains to be elucidated. Methods and Results: We conducted a cluster randomized trial in 10 hospitals to compare 12-24 vs. 36 h of cooling in patients with cardiac arrest who received TTM. The primary outcome was the incidence, within 1 month, of complications including bleeding requiring transfusion, infection, arrhythmias, decreasing blood pressure, shivering, convulsions, and major adverse cardiovascular events. Secondary outcomes were mortality and favorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Categories 1-2) at 3 months. Random-effects models with clustered effects were used to calculate risk ratios (RR). Data of 185 patients were analyzed (12- to 24-h group, n=100 in 5 hospitals; 36-h group, n=85 in 5 hospitals). The incidence of complications within 1 month did not differ between the 2 groups (40% vs. 34%; RR 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-1.61, P=0.860). Favorable neurological outcomes at 3 months were comparable between the 2 groups (64% vs. 62%; RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.72-1.14, P=0.387). Conclusions: TTM at 34℃ for 12-24 h did not significantly reduce the incidence of complications. This study did not show superiority of TTM at 34℃ for 12-24 h for neurologic outcomes.

16.
Circ J ; 85(10): 1842-1848, 2021 09 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34261843

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The effect of in-hospital rapid cooling by intravenous ice-cold fluids for comatose survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear.Methods and Results:From the J-PULSE-HYPO study registry, data for 248 comatose survivors with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) who were treated with therapeutic hypothermia (34℃ for 12-72 h) after witnessed shockable OHCA were extracted. Patients were divided into 2 groups by the median collapse-to-ROSC interval (18 min), and then into 2 groups by cooling method (rapid cooling by intravenous ice-cold fluids vs. standard cooling). The primary endpoint was favorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category of 1 or 2) at 30 days after OHCA. In the whole cohort, the shorter collapse-to-ROSC interval group had significantly higher favorable neurological outcome than the longer collapse-to-ROSC interval group (78.2% vs. 46.8%, P<0.001). In the shorter collapse-to-ROSC interval group, no significant difference was observed in favorable neurological outcome between the 2 cooling groups (rapid cooling group: 79.4% vs. standard cooling group: 77.0%, P=0.75). In the longer collapse-to-ROSC interval group, however, favorable neurological outcome was significant higher in the rapid cooling group than in the standard cooling group (60.7% vs. 33.3%, P<0.01) and the adjusted odds ratio after rapid cooling was 3.069 (95% confidence interval 1.423-6.616, P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital rapid cooling by intravenous ice-cold fluids improved neurologically intact survival in comatose survivors whose collapse-to-ROSC interval was delayed over 18 min after shockable OHCA.


Assuntos
Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Hipotermia Induzida , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/métodos , Coma/etiologia , Coma/terapia , Hospitais , Humanos , Hipotermia Induzida/efeitos adversos , Hipotermia Induzida/métodos , Gelo , Infusões Intravenosas , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Sobreviventes
17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34281050

RESUMO

(1) Background: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of using a pre-existing video on CPR to support preclinical resuscitation education for medical students; (2) Methods: In total, 129 students selected to learn CPR using a pre-existing YouTube video or the conventional screencast video by their university faculties. All students responded to the pre- and post-training multiple-choice questionnaire on the basic knowledge of CPR, and, based on their responses, an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was conducted to assess the comparability of effectiveness across learning modalities. (3) Results: Among the students, 49 (38.0%) students selected the YouTube video to learn about CPR and were treated as the intervention group. The mean pre-test scores and post-test scores of the YouTube and the instructor's video groups were 6.43 and 6.64, and 9.06 and 9.09, respectively. After controlling for the pre-test score effects, the results of ANCOVA did not show statistically significant differences between groups (p = 0.927), indicating comparable performance between groups that used YouTube and the instructor's videos. (4) Conclusion: Utilizing YouTube videos is a useful teaching strategy for teaching CPR knowledge, which would reduce the burden on faculty of creating screencast lecture videos for online learning on resuscitation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Mídias Sociais , Estudantes de Medicina , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Gravação em Vídeo , Carga de Trabalho
18.
Resusc Plus ; 6: 100107, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34223368

RESUMO

AIM: While previous studies have shown that the initial documented rhythm is associated with clinical outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), little is known about the difference in clinical outcomes between pulseless ventricular tachycardia (p-VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF). METHODS: From a nationwide, prospective population-based database of OHCA from 2011 to 2015, we selected bystander-witnessed adult patients who were not treated with a public automated external defibrillator. The outcomes examined were favorable 30-day neurological survival rates, 30-day survival rates, and prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) rates. To determine the association of the initial documented rhythm with outcome, we used a logistic regression model while adjusting for patient factors and prehospital care-related factors. RESULTS: A total of 19,594 bystander-witnessed OHCA patients who had a shockable rhythm were included: 454 (2.3%) were p-VT and 19,140 (97.7%) were VF. Compared to VF patients, p-VT patients were older, less likely to have a cardiogenic cause, and had shorter resuscitation-related time intervals (collapse to bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, collapse to emergency medical services contact, collapse to first ROSC, and first defibrillation to first ROSC). After adjustment for covariates, p-VT was associated with high favorable 30-day neurological survival rates (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-2.64, p = 0.001), 30-day survival rates (adjusted OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.03-1.95, p = 0.037), and prehospital ROSC rates (adjusted OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.42-2.55, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this study, patients with p-VT as the initial documented rhythm had significantly better outcomes than those with VF.

19.
Heart ; 107(13): 1084-1091, 2021 Jun 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34001636

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a predictive model for robust estimation of daily out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence using a suite of machine learning (ML) approaches and high-resolution meteorological and chronological data. METHODS: In this population-based study, we combined an OHCA nationwide registry and high-resolution meteorological and chronological datasets from Japan. We developed a model to predict daily OHCA incidence with a training dataset for 2005-2013 using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. A dataset for 2014-2015 was used to test the predictive model. The main outcome was the accuracy of the predictive model for the number of daily OHCA events, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In general, a model with MAPE less than 10% is considered highly accurate. RESULTS: Among the 1 299 784 OHCA cases, 661 052 OHCA cases of cardiac origin (525 374 cases in the training dataset on which fourfold cross-validation was performed and 135 678 cases in the testing dataset) were included in the analysis. Compared with the ML models using meteorological or chronological variables alone, the ML model with combined meteorological and chronological variables had the highest predictive accuracy in the training (MAE 1.314 and MAPE 7.007%) and testing datasets (MAE 1.547 and MAPE 7.788%). Sunday, Monday, holiday, winter, low ambient temperature and large interday or intraday temperature difference were more strongly associated with OHCA incidence than other the meteorological and chronological variables. CONCLUSIONS: A ML predictive model using comprehensive daily meteorological and chronological data allows for highly precise estimates of OHCA incidence.

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