Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild.

The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable "up-and-down" fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection.

Divergent dynamics of sexual and habitat isolation at the transition between stick insect populations and species.

Speciation is often viewed as a continuum along which populations diverge until they become reproductively-isolated species. However, such divergence may be heterogeneous, proceeding in fits and bursts, rather than being uniform and gradual. We show in Timema stick insects that one component of reproductive isolation evolves non-uniformly across this continuum, whereas another does not. Specifically, we use thousands of host-preference and mating trials to study habitat and sexual isolation among 42 pairs of taxa spanning a range of genomic differentiation and divergence time. We find that habitat isolation is uncoupled from genomic differentiation within species, but accumulates linearly with it between species. In contrast, sexual isolation accumulates linearly across the speciation continuum, and thus exhibits similar dynamics to morphological traits not implicated in reproductive isolation. The results show different evolutionary dynamics for different components of reproductive isolation and highlight a special relevance for species status in the process of speciation.

Genetic variation within a stick-insect species associated with community-level traits.

Phenotypic variation within species can affect the ecological dynamics of populations and communities. Characterizing the genetic variation underlying such effects can help parse the roles of genetic evolution and plasticity in "eco-evolutionary dynamics" and inform how genetic variation may shape patterns of evolution. Here, we employ genome-wide association (GWA) methods in Timema cristinae stick insects and their co-occurring arthropod communities to identify genetic variation associated with community-level traits. Previous studies have shown that maladaptation (i.e., imperfect crypsis) of T. cristinae can reduce the abundance and species richness of other arthropods due to an increase in bird predation. Whether genetic variation that is independent of crypsis has similar effects is unknown and was tested here using genome-wide genotyping-by-sequencing data of stick insects, arthropod community information, and GWA mapping with Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. We find associations between genetic variation in stick insects and arthropod community traits. However, these associations disappear when host-plant traits are accounted for. We thus use path analysis to disentangle interrelationships among stick-insect genetic variation, host-plant traits, and community traits. This revealed that host-plant size has large effects on arthropod communities, while genetic variation in stick insects has a smaller, but still significant effect. Our findings demonstrate that (1) genetic variation in a species can be associated with community-level traits but that (2) interrelationships among multiple factors may need to be analyzed to disentangle whether such associations represent causal relationships. This work helps to build a framework for genomic studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

DNA methylation differences between stick insect ecotypes.

Epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, can influence gene regulation and affect phenotypic variation, raising the possibility that they contribute to ecological adaptation. Beginning to address this issue requires high-resolution sequencing studies of natural populations to pinpoint epigenetic regions of potential ecological and evolutionary significance. However, such studies are still relatively uncommon, especially in insects, and are mainly restricted to a few model organisms. Here, we characterize patterns of DNA methylation for natural populations of Timema cristinae adapted to two host plant species (i.e. ecotypes). By integrating results from sequencing of whole transcriptomes, genomes and methylomes, we investigate whether environmental, host and genetic differences of these stick insects are associated with methylation levels of cytosine nucleotides in the CpG context. We report an overall genome-wide methylation level for T. cristinae of ~14%, with methylation being enriched in gene bodies and impoverished in repetitive elements. Genome-wide DNA methylation variation was strongly positively correlated with genetic distance (relatedness), but also exhibited significant host-plant effects. Using methylome-environment association analysis, we pinpointed specific genomic regions that are differentially methylated between ecotypes, with these regions being enriched for genes with functions in membrane processes. The observed association between methylation variation and genetic relatedness, and with the ecologically important variable of host plant, suggests a potential role for epigenetic modification in T. cristinae adaptation. To substantiate such adaptive significance, future studies could test whether methylation can be transmitted across generations and the extent to which it responds to experimental manipulation in field and laboratory studies.

A stabilizing eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the wild.

There is increasing evidence that evolutionary and ecological processes can operate on the same timescale1,2 (i.e., contemporary time). As such, evolution can be sufficiently rapid to affect ecological processes such as predation or competition. Thus, evolution can influence population, community, and ecosystem-level dynamics. Indeed, studies have now shown that evolutionary dynamics can alter community structure3,4,5,6 and ecosystem function.7,8,9,10 In turn, shifts in ecological dynamics driven by evolution might feed back to affect the evolutionary trajectory of individual species.11 This feedback loop, where evolutionary and ecological changes reciprocally affect one another, is a central tenet of eco-evolutionary dynamics.1,12 However, most work on such dynamics in natural populations has focused on one-way causal associations between ecology and evolution.13 Hence, direct empirical evidence for eco-evolutionary feedback is rare and limited to laboratory or mesocosm experiments.13,14,15,16 Here, we show in the wild that eco-evolutionary dynamics in a plant-feeding arthropod community involve a negative feedback loop. Specifically, adaptation in cryptic coloration in a stick-insect species mediates bird predation, with local maladaptation increasing predation. In turn, the abundance of arthropods is reduced by predation. Here, we experimentally manipulate arthropod abundance to show that these changes at the community level feed back to affect the stick-insect evolution. Specifically, low-arthropod abundance increases the strength of selection on crypsis, increasing local adaptation of stick insects in a negative feedback loop. Our results suggest that eco-evolutionary feedbacks are able to stabilize complex systems by preventing consistent directional change and therefore increasing resilience.

Complex evolutionary processes maintain an ancient chromosomal inversion.

Genome re-arrangements such as chromosomal inversions are often involved in adaptation. As such, they experience natural selection, which can erode genetic variation. Thus, whether and how inversions can remain polymorphic for extended periods of time remains debated. Here we combine genomics, experiments, and evolutionary modeling to elucidate the processes maintaining an inversion polymorphism associated with the use of a challenging host plant (Redwood trees) in Timema stick insects. We show that the inversion is maintained by a combination of processes, finding roles for life-history trade-offs, heterozygote advantage, local adaptation to different hosts, and gene flow. We use models to show how such multi-layered regimes of balancing selection and gene flow provide resilience to help buffer populations against the loss of genetic variation, maintaining the potential for future evolution. We further show that the inversion polymorphism has persisted for millions of years and is not a result of recent introgression. We thus find that rather than being a nuisance, the complex interplay of evolutionary processes provides a mechanism for the long-term maintenance of genetic variation.

Early-warning signals of impending speciation.

Species formation is a central topic in biology, and a large body of theoretical work has explored the conditions under which speciation occurs, including whether speciation dynamics are gradual or abrupt. In some cases of abrupt speciation, differentiation slowly builds up until it reaches a threshold, at which point linkage disequilibrium (LD) and divergent selection enter a positive feedback loop that triggers accelerated change. Notably, such abrupt transitions powered by a positive feedback have also been observed in a range of other systems. Efforts to anticipate abrupt transitions have led to the development of "early warning signals" (EWS), that is, specific statistical patterns preceding abrupt transitions. Examples of EWS are rising autocorrelation and variance in time-series data due to the reduction of the ability of the system to recover from disturbances. Here, we investigate whether speciation dynamics in theoretical models also exhibit EWS. Using a model of genetic divergence between two populations, we search for EWS before gradual and abrupt speciation events. We do so using six different metrics of differentiation: the effective migration rate, the number of selected loci, the mean fitness of our studied population, LD, FST, and Dabs, a metric analogous to DXY. We find evidence for EWS, with a heterogeneity in their strength among differentiation metrics. We specifically identify FST and the effective migration rate as the most reliable EWS of upcoming abrupt speciation events. Our results provide initial insights into potential EWS of impending speciation and contribute to efforts to generalize the mechanisms underlying EWS.

Disruptive selection and the evolution of discrete color morphs in Timema stick insects.

A major unresolved issue in biology is why phenotypic and genetic variation is sometimes continuous, yet other times packaged into discrete units of diversity, such as morphs, ecotypes, and species. In theory, ecological discontinuities can impose strong disruptive selection that promotes the evolution of discrete forms, but direct tests of this hypothesis are lacking. Here, we show that Timema stick insects exhibit genetically determined color morphs that range from weakly to strongly discontinuous. Color data from nature and a manipulative field experiment demonstrate that greater morph differentiation is associated with shifts from host plants exhibiting more continuous color variation to those exhibiting greater coloration distance between green leaves and brown stems, the latter of which generates strong disruptive selection. Our results show how ecological factors can promote discrete variation, and we further present results on how this can have variable effects on the genetic differentiation that promotes speciation.

A multivariate view of the speciation continuum.

The concept of a "speciation continuum" has gained popularity in recent decades. It emphasizes speciation as a continuous process that may be studied by comparing contemporary population pairs that show differing levels of divergence. In their recent perspective article in Evolution, Stankowski and Ravinet provided a valuable service by formally defining the speciation continuum as a continuum of reproductive isolation, based on opinions gathered from a survey of speciation researchers. While we agree that the speciation continuum has been a useful concept to advance the understanding of the speciation process, some intrinsic limitations exist. Here, we advocate for a multivariate extension, the speciation hypercube, first proposed by Dieckmann et al. in 2004, but rarely used since. We extend the idea of the speciation cube and suggest it has strong conceptual and practical advantages over a one-dimensional model. We illustrate how the speciation hypercube can be used to visualize and compare different speciation trajectories, providing new insights into the processes and mechanisms of speciation. A key strength of the speciation hypercube is that it provides a unifying framework for speciation research, as it allows questions from apparently disparate subfields to be addressed in a single conceptual model.

Climatic similarity and genomic background shape the extent of parallel adaptation in Timema stick insects.

Evolution can repeat itself, resulting in parallel adaptations in independent lineages occupying similar environments. Moreover, parallel evolution sometimes, but not always, uses the same genes. Two main hypotheses have been put forth to explain the probability and extent of parallel evolution. First, parallel evolution is more likely when shared ecologies result in similar patterns of natural selection in different taxa. Second, parallelism is more likely when genomes are similar because of shared standing variation and similar mutational effects in closely related genomes. Here we combine ecological, genomic, experimental and phenotypic data with Bayesian modelling and randomization tests to quantify the degree of parallelism and its relationship with ecology and genetics. Our results show that the extent to which genomic regions associated with climate are parallel among species of Timema stick insects is shaped collectively by shared ecology and genomic background. Specifically, the extent of genomic parallelism decays with divergence in climatic conditions (that is, habitat or ecological similarity) and genomic similarity. Moreover, we find that climate-associated loci are likely subject to selection in a field experiment, overlap with genetic regions associated with cuticular hydrocarbon traits and are not strongly shaped by introgression between species. Our findings shed light on when evolution is most expected to repeat itself.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction.

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

The short-term, genome-wide effects of indirect selection deserve study: A response to Charlesworth and Jensen (2022).

We recently published a paper quantifying the genome-wide consequences of natural selection, including the effects of indirect selection due to the correlation of genetic regions (neutral or selected) with directly selected regions (Gompert et al., 2022). In their critique of our paper, Charlesworth and Jensen (2022) make two main points: (i) indirect selection is equivalent to hitchhiking and thus well documented (i.e., our results are not novel) and (ii) that we do not demonstrate the source of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and the Mel-Stripe locus in the Timema cristinae experiment we analyse. As we discuss in detail below, neither of these are substantial criticisms of our work.

Testing for fitness epistasis in a transplant experiment identifies a candidate adaptive locus in Timema stick insects.

Identifying the genetic basis of adaptation is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, identifying genes and mutations affecting fitness remains challenging because a large number of traits and variants can influence fitness. Selected phenotypes can also be difficult to know a priori, complicating top-down genetic approaches for trait mapping that involve crosses or genome-wide association studies. In such cases, experimental genetic approaches, where one maps fitness directly and attempts to infer the traits involved afterwards, can be valuable. Here, we re-analyse data from a transplant experiment involving Timema stick insects, where five physically clustered single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with cryptic body coloration were shown to interact to affect survival. Our analysis covers a larger genomic region than past work and revealed a locus previously not identified as associated with survival. This locus resides near a gene, Punch (Pu), involved in pteridine pigments production, implying that it could be associated with an unmeasured coloration trait. However, by combining previous and newly obtained phenotypic data, we show that this trait is not eye or body coloration. We discuss the implications of our results for the discovery of traits, genes and mutations associated with fitness in other systems, as well as for supergene evolution. This article is part of the theme issue 'Genetic basis of adaptation and speciation: from loci to causative mutations'.

Eco-evolutionary effects of keystone genes.

The rapid evolution of specific genes within species can drive ecological changes.

Frequency dependence and the predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

Frequency-dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and -2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi-cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < -2, can produce self-sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment-dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.

Genomically correlated trait combinations and antagonistic selection contributing to counterintuitive genetic patterns of adaptive diapause divergence in Rhagoletis flies.

Adaptation to novel environments can result in unanticipated genomic responses to selection. Here, we illustrate how multifarious, correlational selection helps explain a counterintuitive pattern of genetic divergence between the recently derived apple- and ancestral hawthorn-infesting host races of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae). The apple host race terminates diapause and emerges as adults earlier in the season than the hawthorn host race, to coincide with the earlier fruiting phenology of their apple hosts. However, alleles at many loci associated with later emergence paradoxically occur at higher frequencies in sympatric populations of the apple compared to the hawthorn race. We present genomic evidence that historical selection over geographically varying environmental gradients across North America generated genetic correlations between two life history traits, diapause intensity and diapause termination, in the hawthorn host race. Moreover, the loci associated with these life history traits are concentrated in genomic regions in high linkage disequilibrium (LD). These genetic correlations are antagonistic to contemporary selection on local apple host race populations that favours increased initial diapause depth and earlier, not later, diapause termination. Thus, the paradox of apple flies appears due, in part, to pleiotropy or linkage of alleles associated with later adult emergence and increased initial diapause intensity, the latter trait strongly selected for by the earlier phenology of apples. Our results demonstrate how understanding of multivariate trait combinations and the correlative nature of selective forces acting on them can improve predictions concerning adaptive evolution and help explain seemingly counterintuitive patterns of genetic diversity in nature.

Natural selection drives genome-wide evolution via chance genetic associations.

Understanding selection's impact on the genome is a major theme in biology. Functionally neutral genetic regions can be affected indirectly by natural selection, via their statistical association with genes under direct selection. The genomic extent of such indirect selection, particularly across loci not physically linked to those under direct selection, remains poorly understood, as does the time scale at which indirect selection occurs. Here, we use field experiments and genomic data in stick insects, deer mice and stickleback fish to show that widespread statistical associations with genes known to affect fitness cause many genetic loci across the genome to be impacted indirectly by selection. This includes regions physically distant from those directly under selection. Then, focusing on the stick insect system, we show that statistical associations between SNPs and other unknown, causal variants result in additional indirect selection in general and specifically within genomic regions of physically linked loci. This widespread indirect selection necessarily makes aspects of evolution more predictable. Thus, natural selection combines with chance genetic associations to affect genome-wide evolution across linked and unlinked loci and even in modest-sized populations. This process has implications for the application of evolutionary principles in basic and applied science.

Testing the potential contribution of Wolbachia to speciation when cytoplasmic incompatibility becomes associated with host-related reproductive isolation.

Endosymbiont-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) may play an important role in arthropod speciation. However, whether CI consistently becomes associated or coupled with other host-related forms of reproductive isolation (RI) to impede the transfer of endosymbionts between hybridizing populations and further the divergence process remains an open question. Here, we show that varying degrees of pre- and postmating RI exist among allopatric populations of two interbreeding cherry-infesting tephritid fruit flies (Rhagoletis cingulata and R. indifferens) across North America. These flies display allochronic and sexual isolation among populations, as well as unidirectional reductions in egg hatch in hybrid crosses involving southwestern USA males. All populations are infected by a Wolbachia strain, wCin2, whereas a second strain, wCin3, only co-infects flies from the southwest USA and Mexico. Strain wCin3 is associated with a unique mitochondrial DNA haplotype and unidirectional postmating RI, implicating the strain as the cause of CI. When coupled with nonendosymbiont RI barriers, we estimate the strength of CI associated with wCin3 would not prevent the strain from introgressing from infected southwestern to uninfected populations elsewhere in the USA if populations were to come into secondary contact and hybridize. In contrast, cytoplasmic-nuclear coupling may impede the transfer of wCin3 if Mexican and USA populations were to come into contact. We discuss our results in the context of the general paucity of examples demonstrating stable Wolbachia hybrid zones and whether the spread of Wolbachia among taxa can be constrained in natural hybrid zones long enough for the endosymbiont to participate in speciation.