Waterborne outbreak of gastroenteritis on the KwaZulu-Natal Coast, South Africa, December 2016/January 2017.

An unexpected increase in gastroenteritis cases was reported by healthcare workers on the KwaZulu-Natal Coast, South Africa, January 2017 with >600 cases seen over a 3-week period. A case-control study was conducted to identify the source and risk factors associated with the outbreak so as to recommend control and prevention measures. Record review identified cases and controls and structured-telephonic interviews were conducted to obtain exposure history. Stool specimens were collected from 20 cases along with environmental samples and both screened for enteric pathogens. A total of 126 cases and 62 controls were included in the analysis. The odds of developing gastroenteritis were 6.0 times greater among holiday makers than residents (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-17.7). Swimming in the lagoon increased the odds of developing gastroenteritis by 3.3 times (95% CI 1.06-10.38). Lagoon water samples tested positive for norovirus (NoV) GI.6, GII.3 and GII.6, astrovirus and rotavirus. Eleven (55%) stool specimens were positive for NoV with eight genotyped as GI.1 (n = 2), GI.5 (n = 3), GI.6 (n = 2), and GI.7 (n = 1). A reported sewage contamination event impacting the lagoon was the likely source with person-to-person spread perpetuating the outbreak. Restriction to swimming in the lagoon was apparently ineffective at preventing the outbreak, possibly due to inadequate enforcement, communication and signage strategies.

Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa.

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Since vaccination at levels short of those necessary to achieve eradication may increase the average age of infection, and thus potentially the CRS burden, introduction of the vaccine has been limited to contexts where coverage is high. Recent work suggests that spatial heterogeneity in coverage should also be a focus of concern. Here, we use a detailed dataset from South Africa to explore the implications of heterogeneous vaccination for the burden of CRS, introducing realistic vaccination scenarios based on reported levels of measles vaccine coverage. Our results highlight the potential impact of country-wide reductions of incidence of rubella on the local CRS burdens in districts with small population sizes. However, simulations indicate that if rubella vaccination is introduced with coverage reflecting current estimates for measles coverage in South Africa, the burden of CRS is likely to be reduced overall over a 30 year time horizon by a factor of 3, despite the fact that this coverage is lower than the traditional 80 per cent rule of thumb for vaccine introduction, probably owing to a combination of relatively low birth and transmission rates. We conclude by discussing the likely impact of private-sector vaccination.