Long-term vegetation trajectories to inform nature recovery strategies: The Greater Côa Valley as a case study.

Active and passive approaches to rewilding and ecological restoration are increasingly considered to promote nature recovery at scale. However, historical data on vegetation trajectories have rarely been used to inform decisions on whether active or passive management is most appropriate to aid recovery of a specific ecosystem, which can lead to sub-optimal approaches being deployed and reduced biodiversity benefits. To demonstrate how understanding past changes can inform future management strategies, this study used satellite remote sensing data to analyse the changes in land cover and primary productivity within the Greater Côa Valley in Portugal, which has experienced wide-scale land abandonment. Results show that some areas in the Valley regenerated well following land abandonment in the region, leading to a more heterogeneous landscape of habitats for wildlife, whereas in other areas passive recovery was slow. As Rewilding Portugal intensifies its nature recovery efforts in the region, this study calls for strategic deployment of passive and active approaches to maximise conservation benefits. More broadly, our results highlight how baseline vegetational trajectories and contextual information can help inform whether active or passive management approaches may be suitable on a site-by-site basis for both rewilding and restoration projects.

Active versus passive restoration: Forests in the southern Carpathian Mountains as a case study.

Active and passive restoration are both increasingly considered as options for nature recovery, with potential to help address the current climate and biodiversity crises. So far, however, there is little practical information on how to gauge the benefits and limitations of each approach, in terms of their effects on large-scale ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning. To address this knowledge gap, this study used satellite remote sensing to investigate changes in land cover and primary productivity within the forests of the Fagaraș Mountains in southern Romania, where large-scale restoration and land abandonment have simultaneously taken place across the past two decades. To our knowledge, this study is the first to contrast the impacts of active and passive restoration within a single landscape on components of ecosystem structure and functioning at such temporal and spatial scales. Results show active restoration activities to be very effective at facilitating the recovery of cleared forests in small parts of the landscapes; but they also highlight substantial areas of natural forest expansion following agricultural abandonment, in line with regional trends. Altogether, our approach clearly illustrates how freely available satellite data can (1) provide vital spatially explicit insights about large-scale and long-term transformations in ecosystem composition, structure and functioning; and (2) help contrast the impacts of restoration approaches on vegetation distribution and dynamics, in ways that complement existing ground-based studies.

The relative importance of COVID-19 pandemic impacts on biodiversity conservation globally.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on almost all aspects of human society and endeavor; the natural world and its conservation have not been spared. Through a process of expert consultation, we identified and categorized, into 19 themes and 70 subthemes, the ways in which biodiversity and its conservation have been or could be affected by the pandemic globally. Nearly 60% of the effects have been broadly negative. Subsequently, we created a compendium of all themes and subthemes, each with explanatory text, and in August 2020 a diverse group of experienced conservationists with expertise from across sectors and geographies assessed each subtheme for its likely impact on biodiversity conservation globally. The 9 subthemes ranked highest all have a negative impact. These were, in rank order, governments sidelining the environment during their economic recovery, reduced wildlife-based tourism income, increased habitat destruction, reduced government funding, increased plastic and other solid waste pollution, weakening of nature-friendly regulations and their enforcement, increased illegal harvest of wild animals, reduced philanthropy, and threats to survival of conservation organizations. In combination, these impacts present a worrying future of increased threats to biodiversity conservation but reduced capacity to counter them. The highest ranking positive impact, at 10, was the beneficial impact of wildlife-trade restrictions. More optimistically, among impacts ranked 11-20, 6 were positive and 4 were negative. We hope our assessment will draw attention to the impacts of the pandemic and, thus, improve the conservation community's ability to respond to such threats in the future.

La pandemia de COVID-19 ha tenido un impacto enorme sobre casi todos los aspectos de la sociedad humana y sus proyectos; el mundo natural y su conservación no han sido la excepción. Por medio de un proceso de consultas a expertos, identificamos y categorizamos en 19 temas y 70 subtemas las maneras en las que la biodiversidad y su conservación han sido o podrían ser afectadas mundialmente por la pandemia. Casi el 60% de los efectos han sido claramente negativos. Posteriormente, creamos un compendio de todos los temas y subtemas, cada uno con textos explicativos, para que en agosto de 2020 un grupo diverso de conservacionistas experimentados con conocimiento de todos los sectores y geografías evaluara cada subtema de acuerdo con su probabilidad de impactar sobre la conservación de la biodiversidad en todo el mundo. Los nueve subtemas con la clasificación más alta tienen un impacto negativo. Estos temas son, en orden de clasificación: los gobiernos dejando de lado al ambiente durante su recuperación económica, reducción de los ingresos basados en el turismo de fauna, incremento en la destrucción de hábitat, financiamiento reducido del gobierno, aumento de la contaminación por plásticos y otros desechos sólidos, debilitamiento de las regulaciones en pro de la naturaleza y su aplicación, incremento en la captura ilegal de animales, disminución de la filantropía y amenazas para la supervivencia de las organizaciones de conservación. La combinación de estos impactos representa un futuro preocupante lleno de amenazas para la conservación de la biodiversidad y una capacidad reducida para contrarrestarlas. El impacto positivo con la clasificación más alta, el 10, fue el impacto benéfico de las restricciones en el mercado de fauna. De manera más optimista, entre los impactos clasificados de los lugares del 11 al 20, seis fueron positivos y cuatro fueron negativos. Esperamos que nuestra evaluación enfoque la atención hacia los impactos de la pandemia y así mejore la habilidad de la comunidad conservacionista para responder a tales amenazas en el futuro. Importancia Relativa de los Impactos de la Pandemia de COVID-19 sobre la Conservación Mundial de la Biodiversidad.

Tapping into non-English-language science for the conservation of global biodiversity.

The widely held assumption that any important scientific information would be available in English underlies the underuse of non-English-language science across disciplines. However, non-English-language science is expected to bring unique and valuable scientific information, especially in disciplines where the evidence is patchy, and for emergent issues where synthesising available evidence is an urgent challenge. Yet such contribution of non-English-language science to scientific communities and the application of science is rarely quantified. Here, we show that non-English-language studies provide crucial evidence for informing global biodiversity conservation. By screening 419,679 peer-reviewed papers in 16 languages, we identified 1,234 non-English-language studies providing evidence on the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation interventions, compared to 4,412 English-language studies identified with the same criteria. Relevant non-English-language studies are being published at an increasing rate in 6 out of the 12 languages where there were a sufficient number of relevant studies. Incorporating non-English-language studies can expand the geographical coverage (i.e., the number of 2° × 2° grid cells with relevant studies) of English-language evidence by 12% to 25%, especially in biodiverse regions, and taxonomic coverage (i.e., the number of species covered by the relevant studies) by 5% to 32%, although they do tend to be based on less robust study designs. Our results show that synthesising non-English-language studies is key to overcoming the widespread lack of local, context-dependent evidence and facilitating evidence-based conservation globally. We urge wider disciplines to rigorously reassess the untapped potential of non-English-language science in informing decisions to address other global challenges. Please see the Supporting information files for Alternative Language Abstracts.

Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan.

Our first horizon scan, conducted in 2009, aimed to identify novel but poorly known issues with potentially significant effects on global conservation of biological diversity. Following completion of the tenth annual scan, we reviewed the 15 topics identified a decade ago and assessed their development in the scientific literature and news media. Five topics, including microplastic pollution, synthetic meat, and environmental applications of mobile-sensing technology, appeared to have had widespread salience and effects. The effects of six topics were moderate, three have not emerged, and the effects of one topic were low. The awareness of, and involvement in, these issues by 12 conservation organisations has increased for most issues since 2009.

A Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation in 2019.

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities. Topics include advances in crop breeding, which may affect insects and land use; manipulations of natural water flows and weather systems on the Tibetan Plateau; release of carbon and mercury from melting polar ice and thawing permafrost; new funding schemes and regulations; and land-use changes across Indo-Malaysia.

Ten-year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation.

In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled a list of 100 priority questions for the conservation of the world's biodiversity. However, now almost a decade later, no one has yet published a study gauging how much progress has been made in addressing these 100 high-priority questions in the peer-reviewed literature. We took a first step toward reexamining the 100 questions to identify key knowledge gaps that remain. Through a combination of a questionnaire and a literature review, we evaluated each question on the basis of 2 criteria: relevance and effort. We defined highly relevant questions as those that - if answered - would have the greatest impact on global biodiversity conservation and quantified effort based on the number of review publications addressing a particular question, which we used as a proxy for research effort. Using this approach, we identified a set of questions that, despite being perceived as highly relevant, have been the focus of relatively few review publications over the past 10 years. These questions covered a broad range of topics but predominantly tackled 3 major themes: conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems, role of societal structures in shaping interactions between people and the environment, and impacts of conservation interventions. We believe these questions represent important knowledge gaps that have received insufficient attention and may need to be prioritized in future research.

A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.

A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016.

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.

This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic.

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects.

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds.

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

Does the badge of status influence parental care and investment in house sparrows? An experimental test.

Theory predicts that traits which signal parental quality might evolve in males of species with biparental care. In avian species, male ornaments may be the most likely candidates for such signals. Male house sparrows (Passer domesticus) possess a black throat patch often referred to as a "badge" or a "badge of status". By assuming a trade-off between male attractiveness (reflected in male ornaments) and parental care under the differential allocation hypothesis, we predicted that badge size would be negatively correlated with male parental investment. An experiment in which the badge was enlarged in one group and unchanged in a control group was conducted. Our manipulation was predicted to affect female as well as male parental investment. However, we found that eight variables associated with parental investment-the start date for breeding, clutch size, male and female incubation time, male and female food provisioning rate, and average chick weight and the number of fledglings-barely differed between treatments. Also, little evidence for correlations between natural variation in badge size and any of these eight variables was found. Instead, the start date for breeding and the number of fledglings were significantly correlated with both male and female age, while clutch size increased with female age. Female condition was a positive predictor of clutch size and number of fledglings. Female tarsus length, unexpectedly, is related to both male and female incubation time. Badge size was also positively correlated with male age. However, parental age (male or female) was not related to parental care. We conclude that badge size does not signal parental quality, but that the ages of both sexes and the condition of the female play significant roles in the reproductive performance of this species.