Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation.

Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture-conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.

Quantifying the impacts of 166 years of land cover change on lowland bird communities.

Land cover change for agriculture is thought to be a major threat to global biodiversity. However, its ecological impact has rarely been quantified in the Northern Hemisphere, as broad-scale conversion to farmland mainly occurred until the 1400s-1700s in the region, limiting the availability of sufficient data. The Ishikari Lowland in Hokkaido, Japan, offers an excellent opportunity to address this issue, as hunter-gatherer lifestyles dominated this region until the mid-nineteenth century and land cover maps are available for the period of land cover changes (i.e. 1850-2016). Using these maps and a hierarchical community model of relationships between breeding bird abundance and land cover types, we estimated that broad-scale land cover change over a 166-year period was associated with more than 70% decline in both potential species richness and abundance of avian communities. We estimated that the abundance of wetland and forest species declined by greater than 88%, whereas that of bare-ground/farmland species increased by more than 50%. Our results suggest that broad-scale land cover change for agriculture has led to drastic reductions in wetland and forest species and promoted changes in community composition in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides potential baseline information that could inform future conservation policies.

Climate Stability Index maps, a global high resolution cartography of climate stability from Pliocene to 2100.

Climate changes are top biodiversity shapers, both during the past and future. Mapping the most climatic stable and unstable zones on Earth could improve our understanding of biodiversity distribution and evolution. Here, we present a set of maps based on a global scale, high resolution (ca. 5 km) new Climate Stability Index (CSI). The CSI considers bioclimatic variables for two different time ranges: (1) from Pliocene (3.3 Ma) to the present (CSI-past map set), using 12 time periods of PaleoClim representing warm and cold cycles; and (2) from present to the year 2100 (CSI-future), using nine general circulation models of climate change of four periods available from WorldClim. We calculated standard deviation of the variables and selected an uncorrelated set for summing, normalizing and obtaining the CSI maps. Our approach is useful for fields such as biogeography, earth sciences, agriculture, or sociology. However, CSI is an index that can be re-calculated according to particular criteria and objectives (e.g. temperature variables); maps are, therefore, customizable to every user.

Global estimates of stress-reflecting indices reveal key climatic drivers of climate-induced forest range shifts.

Climate change has the potential to cause forest range shifts at a broad scale and consequently can alter crucial forest functions, including carbon sequestration. However, global-scale projections of future forest range shifts remain challenging because our knowledge of the physiological responses of plants to climatic stress is limited to particular species and is insufficient for wide-range projections, in addition to the uncertainties in the impacts of non-climatic factors, such as wildfire, wind, and insect outbreaks. To evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of forests to climate change, we developed a new empirical approach using climatic indices reflecting physiological stressors on plants. We calculated the global distributions of seven indices based on primary climatic stressors (drought, solar radiation, and temperature) at high resolution. We then modeled the relationship between the seven indices and global forest extent. We found two key stressors driving climate-induced forest range shifts on a global scale: low temperature under high radiation and drought. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, forest establishment became difficult when the mean temperature was less than approximately 7.2 °C in the highest radiation quarter. Forest sensitivity to drought was more pronounced at mid-latitudes. In areas where the humidity index (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) was below 0.45, shrubland and grassland became more dominant than forests. Our results also suggested that the impacts of climate change on global forest range shifts will be geographically biased depending on the areas affected by the key climatic stressors. Potential forest gain was remarkable in boreal regions due to increasing temperature. Potential forest loss was remarkable in current tropical grassland and temperate forest/grassland ecoregions due to increasing drought. Our approach using stress-reflecting indices could improve our ability to detect the roles of climatic stressors on climate-induced forest range shifts.

Stathmin dynamics modulate the activity of eribulin in breast cancer cells.

Stathmin, a phosphoprotein that modulates microtubule dynamics, is highly expressed in breast cancer cells. Eribulin, a microtubule-depolymerizing agent, is used to treat patients with advanced breast cancer. However, the detailed mechanisms underlying the action of eribulin during microtubule catastrophe, and the interaction between eribulin and stathmin dynamics, remain unclear. Here, we investigated the role of stathmin in the antiproliferative activity of eribulin in breast cancer cells. Eribulin induced phosphorylation of stathmin in MCF7 and MDA-MB-231 cells; this was attenuated by an inhibitor of protein kinase A (H89) and an inhibitor of Ca2+ /calmodulin-dependent kinase II (KN62). In addition, expression of phosphorylated stathmin was reduced by the protein phosphatase PP2A activator FTY720 but increased by the PP2A inhibitor okadaic acid. Of note, expression of PP2A subunits in eribulin-treated cells decreased, although eribulin did not affect the phosphatase activity of recombinant PP2A directly. Furthermore, the antiproliferative effect of eribulin was stronger in stathmin-overexpressing cells. These results suggest that stathmin dynamics are closely associated with the antiproliferative effects of eribulin and stathmin is a possible biomarker for predicting the therapeutic effects of eribulin in breast cancer patients.

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation.

Limiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

Author Correction: Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia.

In the original version of this Article, an incorrect sample size was provided for the number of relict species (443 instead of 442) and the number of relict forests (423 instead of 422). These errors have been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia.

Today East Asia harbors many "relict" plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species' chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer.

Ongoing climate change and land-use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant-herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land-use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land-use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land-use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land-use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land-use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land-use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.

The impact of Sika deer on vegetation in Japan: setting management priorities on a national scale.

Irreversible shifts in ecosystems caused by large herbivores are becoming widespread around the world. We analyzed data derived from the 2009-2010 Sika Deer Impact Survey, which assessed the geographical distribution of deer impacts on vegetation through a questionnaire, on a scale of 5-km grid-cells. Our aim was to identify areas facing irreversible ecosystem shifts caused by deer overpopulation and in need of management prioritization. Our results demonstrated that the areas with heavy impacts on vegetation were widely distributed across Japan from north to south and from the coastal to the alpine areas. Grid-cells with heavy impacts are especially expanding in the southwestern part of the Pacific side of Japan. The intensity of deer impacts was explained by four factors: (1) the number of 5-km grid-cells with sika deer in neighboring 5 km-grid-cells in 1978 and 2003, (2) the year sika deer were first recorded in a grid-cell, (3) the number of months in which maximum snow depth exceeded 50 cm, and (4) the proportion of urban areas in a particular grid-cell. Based on our model, areas with long-persistent deer populations, short snow periods, and fewer urban areas were predicted to be the most vulnerable to deer impact. Although many areas matching these criteria already have heavy deer impact, there are some areas that remain only slightly impacted. These areas may need to be designated as having high management priority because of the possibility of a rapid intensification of deer impact.

Disturbance by large herbivores alters the relative importance of the ecological processes that influence the assembly pattern in heterogeneous meta-communities.

Disturbance caused by large herbivores can affect the relative importance of ecological processes in determining community assembly and may cause a systematic loss of biodiversity across scales. To examine changes in the community assembly pattern caused by an overabundance of large herbivores in Japan, we analyzed community composition data from before and after the overabundance occurred. The community assembly pattern becomes more random after the deer overabundance. In addition, result of variation partitioning revealed decrease in importance of environmental processes and increase in importance of spatial processes. However, response of turnover rate, niche breadth, and niche overlap was heterogeneous, according to scale of each environmental gradient. Our results emphasize the importance of conserving habitat specialists that represent the local environment (habitat type and topography) at various altitudinal ranges to maintain biodiversity at regional scales under the increasing pressure of large herbivores.