Retrograde Coronary Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (JR-CTO) Score: From the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry.

BACKGROUND: Despite the effectiveness of the retrograde approach for chronic total occlusion (CTO) lesions, there are no standardized tools to predict the success of retrograde percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to develop a prediction tool to identify CTO lesions that will achieve successful retrograde PCI. METHODS: This study evaluated data from 2,374 patients who underwent primary retrograde CTO-PCI and were enrolled in the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry between January 2016 and December 2022 (NCT01889459). All observations were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation cohorts at a 2:1 ratio. The prediction score for guidewire failure in retrograde CTO-PCI was determined by assigning 1 point for each factor and summing all accrued points. RESULTS: The JR-CTO score (moderate-severe calcification, tortuosity, Werner collateral connection grade ≤1, and nonseptal collateral channel) demonstrated a C-statistic for guidewire failure of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.64-0.77) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Patients with lower scores had higher guidewire and technical success rates and decreased guidewire crossing time and procedural time (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The JR-CTO (Japanese Retrograde Chronic Total Occlusion) score, a simple 4-item score that predicts successful guidewire crossing in patients undergoing retrograde CTO-PCI, has the potential to support clinical decision-making for the retrograde approach.

Descriptions of Etiology, Clinical Course, and Prognosis of Patients Presenting with Pericardial Effusion.

Pericardial effusion (PE) presentation varies from an incidental finding to a life-threatening situation; thus, its etiology and clinical course remain unknown. The aim of the present study was to retrospectively investigate these factors.We analyzed 171 patients (0.4%) who presented with PE among 34,873 patients who underwent echocardiography between 2011 and 2021 at our hospital. Clinical and prognostic information was retrieved from electronic medical records. The primary endpoints were all-cause death, hospitalization due to heart failure (HF), and other cardiovascular events such as cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, elective percutaneous coronary intervention, and stroke.The etiologies of PE were as follows: idiopathic (32%), HF-related (18%), iatrogenic (11%), cardiac surgery-related (10%), radiation therapy-related (9%), malignancy (8%), pericarditis/myocarditis (8%), myocardial infarction-related (2%), and acute aortic dissection (2%). Patients with idiopathic/HF etiology were more likely to be older than the others.During a mean follow-up period of 2.5 years, all-cause death occurred in 21 patients (12.3%), cardiovascular events in 10 patients (5.8%), and hospitalization for HF in 24 patients (14.0%). All-cause death was frequently observed in patients with malignancy (44% per person-year). Cardiovascular events were mostly observed in patients with radiation therapy-related and malignancy (8.6% and 7.3% per person-year, respectively).The annual incidence of hospitalization for HF was the highest in patients with HF-related (25.1% per person-year), followed by radiation therapy-related (10.4% per person-year).This retrospective study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to reveal the contemporary prevalence of PE, its cause, and outcome in patients who visited a cardiovascular hospital in an urban area of Japan.

Identifying patients with acute aortic dissection using an electrocardiogram with convolutional neural network.

Background: The potential of utilizing artificial intelligence with electrocardiography (ECG) for initial screening of aortic dissection (AD) is promising. However, achieving a high positive predictive rate (PPR) remains challenging. Methods and results: This retrospective analysis of a single-center, prospective cohort study (Shinken Database 2010-2017, N = 19,170) used digital 12-lead ECGs from initial patient visits. We assessed a convolutional neural network (CNN) model's performance for AD detection with eight-lead (I, II, and V1-6), single-lead, and double-lead (I, II) ECGs via five-fold cross-validation. The mean age was 63.5 ± 12.5 years for the AD group (n = 147) and 58.1 ± 15.7 years for the non-AD group (n = 19,023). The CNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.936 (standard deviation [SD]: 0.023) for AD detection with eight-lead ECGs. In the entire cohort, the PPR was 7 %, with 126 out of 147 AD cases correctly diagnosed (sensitivity 86 %). When applied to patients with D-dimer levels ≥1 µg/dL and a history of hypertension, the PPR increased to 35 %, with 113 AD cases correctly identified (sensitivity 86 %). The single V1 lead displayed the highest diagnostic performance (AUC: 0.933, SD: 0.03), with PPR improvement from 8 % to 38 % within the same population. Conclusions: Our CNN model using ECG data for AD detection achieved an over 30% PPR when applied to patients with elevated D-dimer levels and hypertension history while maintaining sensitivity. A similar level of performance was observed with a single-lead V1 ECG in the CNN model.

The Characteristics of Primary Retrograde Approach Selection for Native Coronary Chronic Occlusion With Short Occlusion Length from the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry.

Although the coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO) crossing algorithm has been published, the characteristics associated with the first strategy selection for short-length lesions <20 mm is still debatable. This study aimed to determine the characteristics associated with primary retrograde approach (PRA) for native CTO with short occlusion length in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Between January 2014 and December 2021, we examined data on 4,088 lesions in the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry with occlusion lengths <20 mm. Then, the characteristics for short-length CTO, which was performed by way of the PRA, were assessed. PRA was performed in 785 patients (19.2%). The guidewire success rate was 93.6%, and the technical success rate was 91.3%. Previous coronary artery bypass grafting, chronic kidney disease, and 6 lesion/anatomic characteristics (i.e., blunt stump, distal runoff <1 mm, CTO lesion tortuosity, reattempt procedures, ostial location, and the presence of collateral channel grade 2) were associated with PRA (p <0.05). Moreover, hemodialysis was an independent factor of unsuccessful anterograde guidewire crossing, along with distal runoff <1 mm, the existence of calcification, and CTO lesion tortuosity (all p <0.05). In clinical settings, these independent factors for PRA in short-length CTO can help in selecting the CTO-PCI strategy.

Evaluating convolutional neural network-enhanced electrocardiography for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy detection in a specialized cardiovascular setting.

The efficacy of convolutional neural network (CNN)-enhanced electrocardiography (ECG) in detecting hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and dilated HCM (dHCM) remains uncertain in real-world applications. This retrospective study analyzed data from 19,170 patients (including 140 HCM or dHCM) in the Shinken Database (2010-2017). We evaluated the sensitivity, positive predictive rate (PPR), and F1 score of CNN-enhanced ECG in a ''basic diagnosis'' model (total disease label) and a ''comprehensive diagnosis'' model (including disease subtypes). Using all-lead ECG in the "basic diagnosis" model, we observed a sensitivity of 76%, PPR of 2.9%, and F1 score of 0.056. These metrics improved in cases with a diagnostic probability of ≥ 0.9 and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on ECG: 100% sensitivity, 8.6% PPR, and 0.158 F1 score. The ''comprehensive diagnosis'' model further enhanced these figures to 100%, 13.0%, and 0.230, respectively. Performance was broadly consistent across CNN models using different lead configurations, particularly when including leads viewing the lateral walls. While the precision of CNN models in detecting HCM or dHCM in real-world settings is initially low, it improves by targeting specific patient groups and integrating disease subtype models. The use of ECGs with fewer leads, especially those involving the lateral walls, appears comparably effective.

Lead-Specific Performance for Atrial Fibrillation Detection in Convolutional Neural Network Models Using Sinus Rhythm Electrocardiography.

Background: We developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) model to detect atrial fibrillation (AF) using the sinus rhythm ECG (SR-ECG). However, the diagnostic performance of the CNN model based on different ECG leads remains unclear. Methods and Results: In this retrospective analysis of a single-center, prospective cohort study, we identified 616 AF cases and 3,412 SR cases for the modeling dataset among new patients (n=19,170). The modeling dataset included SR-ECGs obtained within 31 days from AF-ECGs in AF cases and SR cases with follow-up ≥1,095 days. We evaluated the CNN model's performance for AF detection using 8-lead (I, II, and V1-6), single-lead, and double-lead ECGs through 5-fold cross-validation. The CNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.872 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.856-0.888) and an odds ratio of 15.24 (95% CI: 12.42-18.72) for AF detection using the eight-lead ECG. Among the single-lead and double-lead ECGs, the double-lead ECG using leads I and V1 yielded an AUC of 0.871 (95% CI: 0.856-0.886) with an odds ratio of 14.34 (95% CI: 11.64-17.67). Conclusions: We assessed the performance of a CNN model for detecting AF using eight-lead, single-lead, and double-lead SR-ECGs. The model's performance with a double-lead (I, V1) ECG was comparable to that of the 8-lead ECG, suggesting its potential as an alternative for AF screening using SR-ECG.

New Angiographic Difficulty Score for First-Attempt Chronic Total Occlusion in the 3 Major Coronary Arteries.

BACKGROUND: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is still challenging due to complex lesion morphology. Success rates may vary among the 3 major coronary arteries, influenced by clinical and angiographic characteristics. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the differences in the predictors of unsuccessful PCI in first-attempt CTO lesions of the 3 major coronary arteries compared with the J-CTO (Japanese CTO) score. METHODS: This study assessed 6,408 first-attempt CTO patients from the Japanese CTO-PCI expert registry between January 2014 and December 2021, randomly assigned to derivation and validation sets. Difficulty scores for each artery were determined by assigning points to predictive unsuccessful factors. RESULTS: The CTO lesions were distributed as follows: left anterior descending coronary artery: 2,245 (35%), left circumflex coronary artery: 1,131 (18%), and right coronary artery (RCA): 3,032 (47%). Regarding success rates, left circumflex coronary artery CTO had the lowest procedural success rate (90%) followed by RCA CTO (92%) and left anterior descending coronary artery CTO (94%). RCA CTO was significantly longer and more severely angulated, requiring more often the retrograde approach. A multivariate logistic analysis revealed that predictors of failed PCI were different in CTO lesions among the 3 major coronary arteries, respectively. Moreover, our difficulty score for RCA CTO was superior to the J-CTO score in predicting unsuccessful PCI. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and angiographic differences might explain the discrepancies of success rates in CTO lesions among the 3 major coronary arteries. Our novel difficulty score was comparable to the J-CTO score in predicting unsuccessful CTO-PCI with a superior discriminatory capacity.

Impact of minimum contrast media volumes during percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion lesion.

Contrast media exposure is associated with contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of chronic total occlusion (CTO). Aim of this study is to assess the utility of minimum contrast media volume (CMV ≤ 50 mL) during CTO-PCI for CIN prevention in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We extracted data from the Japanese CTO-PCI expert registry; 2863 patients with CKD who underwent CTO-PCI performed from 2014 to 2020 were divided into two groups: minimum CMV (n = 191) and non-minimum CMV groups (n = 2672). CIN was defined as an increased serum creatinine level of ≥ 25% and/or ≥ 0.5 mg/dL compared with baseline levels within 72 h of the procedure. In the minimum CMV group, the CIN incidence was lower than that in the non-minimum CMV group (1.0% vs. 4.1%; p = 0.03). Patient success rate was higher and complication rate was lower in the minimum CMV group than in the non-minimum CMV group (96.8% vs. 90.3%; p = 0.02 and 3.1% vs. 7.1%; p = 0.03). In the minimum CMV group, the primary retrograde approach was more frequent in the case of J-CTO = 1,2 and 3-5 groups compared to that in non-minimum CMV-PCI group (J-CTO = 0; 11% vs. 17.7%, p = 0.06; J-CTO = 1; 22% vs. 35.8%, p = 0.01; J-CTO = 2; 32.4% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.01; and J-CTO = 3-5; 44.7% vs. 80.0%, p = 0.02). Minimum CMV-PCI for CTO in CKD patients could reduce the incidence of CIN. The primary retrograde approach was observed to a greater extent in the minimum CMV group, especially in cases of difficult CTO.

Identification of patients with dilated phase of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using a convolutional neural network applied to multiple, dual, and single lead electrocardiograms.

Background: This study sought to develop an artificial intelligence-derived model to detect the dilated phase of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (dHCM) on digital electrocardiography (ECG) and to evaluate the performance of the model applied to multiple-lead or single-lead ECG. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis using a single-center prospective cohort study (Shinken Database 2010-2017, n = 19,170). After excluding those without a normal P wave on index ECG (n = 1,831) and adding dHCM patients registered before 2009 (n = 39), 17,378 digital ECGs were used. Totally 54 dHCM patients were identified of which 11 diagnosed at baseline, 4 developed during the time course, and 39 registered before 2009. The performance of the convolutional neural network (CNN) model for detecting dHCM was evaluated using eight-lead (I, II, and V1-6), single-lead, and double-lead (I, II) ECGs with the five-fold cross validation method. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) of the CNN model to detect dHCM (n = 54) with eight-lead ECG was 0.929 (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025) and the odds ratio was 38.64 (SD 9.10). Among the single-lead and double-lead ECGs, the AUC was highest with the single lead of V5 (0.953 [SD: 0.038]), with an odds ratio of 58.89 (SD:68.56). Conclusion: Compared with the performance of eight-lead ECG, the most similar performance was achieved with the model with a single V5 lead, suggesting that this single-lead ECG can be an alternative to eight-lead ECG for the screening of dHCM.

Machine Learning for Prediction of Technical Results of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

(1) Background: The probability of technical success in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO) represents essential information for specifying the priority of PCI for treatment selection in patients with CTO. However, the predictabilities of existing scores based on conventional regression analysis remain modest, leaving room for improvements in model discrimination. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as highly effective methods for prediction and decision-making in various disciplines. We therefore investigated the predictability of ML models for technical results of CTO-PCI and compared their performances to the results from existing scores, including J-CTO, CL, and CASTLE scores. (2) Methods: This analysis used data from the Japanese CTO-PCI expert registry, which enrolled 8760 consecutive patients undergoing CTO-PCI. The performance of prediction models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC-AUC). (3) Results: Technical success was achieved in 7990 procedures, accounting for an overall success rate of 91.2%. The best ML model, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), outperformed the conventional prediction scores with ROC-AUC (XGBoost 0.760 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.740-0.780] vs. J-CTO 0.697 [95%CI: 0.675-0.719], CL 0.662 [95%CI: 0.639-0.684], CASTLE 0.659 [95%CI: 0.636-0.681]; p < 0.005 for all). The XGBoost model demonstrated acceptable concordance between the observed and predicted probabilities of CTO-PCI failure. Calcification was the leading predictor. (4) Conclusions: ML techniques provide accurate, specific information regarding the likelihood of success in CTO-PCI, which would help select the best treatment for individual patients with CTO.

Association between serum alkaline phosphatase and cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation.

High alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels are reported to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Given the pathological link with CKD, a similar relationship may exist in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We retrospectively evaluated 1,719 patients with AF and normal hepatic function who were registered in the Shinken Database between November 2011 and March 2017. Study patients were divided into three groups according to ALP value tertiles with cut-offs of 175 and 227 IU/L (normal range: 95-350 IU/L). Each group's incidence rate was recorded, and the risks of cardiovascular events and each component for patients in the middle and high ALP tertiles were compared with those in the low tertile and evaluated using Cox regression models. The additional predictive value of the high ALP tertile over the existing risk scores for the components of cardiovascular events was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. During the median follow-up of 731 days (IQR: 444-1095 days), 137 cardiovascular events occurred, with incidence rates of 2.94%, 3.44%, and 6.19%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively. Of these cardiovascular events, heart failure had the highest incidence rates (1.34%, 1.89%, and 4.29%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively) and the incidence rates of the other components of cardiovascular event were similar in each ALP groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis yielded hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-1.96) and 1.62 (95% CI 1.06-2.48) for cardiovascular events and 1.66 (95% CI 0.87-3.15) and 2.50 (95% CI 1.39-4.48) for heart failure admission in the middle and high ALP tertiles, respectively. By ROC curve analysis for heart failure admission showed that the high ALP tertile lacked significant additive predictive value over the existing risk scores. High serum ALP levels, even those in the normal range, were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, especially heart failure admission in patients with AF.

Procedural results and in-hospital outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction: Sub-analysis of the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the procedural results and in-hospital outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO) in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). BACKGROUND: While the technical success of general CTO-PCI has improved, CTO-PCI patients with reduced LVEF remain at high-risk for adverse events. METHODS: The data of 820 patients with LVEF ≤ 35% (Group 1), 1816 patients with LVEF = 35%-50% (Group 2), and 5503 patients with LVEF ≥ 50% (Group 3), registered in the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry from January 2014 to December 2019, were retrospectively analyzed. The primary endpoint was in-hospital major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), including death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, stroke, and emergent revascularization. Secondary endpoints included procedural details, guidewire success, and technical success. RESULTS: There were no differences in guidewire and technical success rates between the groups. In-hospital MACCEs was significantly higher in Group 1 (Group 1 vs. Group 2 vs. Group 3: 3.4% vs. 1.7% vs. 1.5%, p = 0.001) and was especially driven by death (1.3% vs. 0.3% vs. 0.1%, p < 0.001) and stroke (0.7% vs. 0.2% vs. 0.2%, p = 0.007). Multivariate analysis showed that LVEF ≤ 35% (odds ratio [OR]; 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 1.04-2.41, p = 0.03) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class ≥ 3 (OR; 2.01, 95% CI; 1.03-3.93, p = 0.04) were predictors of in-hospital MACCEs. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital MACCEs were significantly higher in patients with LVEF ≤ 35%. LVEF ≤;35% and NYHA class ≥ 3 were predictors of in-hospital MACCEs after CTO-PCI.

Impact of Timing and Treatment Strategy on Coronary Perforation During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

Coronary perforations during chronic total occlusion percutaneous coronary intervention (CTO-PCI) are potential complications and reportedly associated with adverse events. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and timing of perforations during CTO-PCI. Data from the Japanese CTO-PCI expert registry included 8,760 patients who underwent CTO-PCI between January 2014 and January 2019. The major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were defined as death, tamponade, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, stroke, and revascularization. The guidewire manipulation time was defined as the time required to cross the CTO without perforation. Among these patients, 333 (3.8%) developed perforation during the CTO crossing attempt. Of the 333 patients, 29 developed cardiac tamponades (8.7%). Perforations more frequently occurred in a retrograde wiring than in an anterograde wiring (6.6% vs 1.7%, p <0.0001). A longer guidewire manipulation time was associated with the occurrence of perforation (median 101 minutes [interquartile range 59 to 150 minutes] in the perforation group vs 54.9 minutes [interquartile range 21.1 to 112.7 minutes] in the nonperforation group, p <0.0001). Risk factors for perforation were age, history of coronary bypass graft, right coronary artery lesion, de novo lesion, use of a stiff guidewire, and guidewire manipulation time of >60 minutes during anterograde wiring and age, non-left anterior descending artery lesion, use of a polymer-jacketed guidewire, and use of epicardial channel during retrograde wiring. In conclusion, risk factors for perforation were different between anterograde and retrograde wirings. A prolonged guidewire manipulation time was associated with the occurrence of perforation, especially during anterograde wiring.

Operator experience and clinical outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion: insights from a pooled analysis of the Japanese CTO PCI Expert Registry and the Retrograde Summit General Registry.

There have not been enough studies to examine the association between difference in operator experience and technical success rate in contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion (CTO-PCI). The present study sought to provide insights into the impact of operator experience on clinical outcomes of CTO-PCI through a comparison of two largest Japanese CTO-PCI registries consisting of operators with different CTO-PCI experience. After combining clinical data from the Japanese CTO-PCI Expert Registry (ER) 2014-2016 (N = 4316) including CTO-PCI performed by highly experienced operators and the Retrograde Summit General Registry (RSGR) 2014-2016 (N = 2230) including CTO-PCI performed by less experienced operators, a pooled analysis was performed to compare clinical outcomes of CTO-PCI in 2 registries. The overall technical success rate and the incidence of in-hospital major adverse events were comparable between ER and RSGR (90.1% vs 88.9%, p = 0.133, 1.7% vs 1.5%, p = 0.606, respectively). Technical success rate in ER was significantly higher among the patients treated with primary antegrade approach (91.8% vs 89.5%, p = 0.009), whereas there was no significant difference among the patients treated with the primary retrograde approach (85.7% vs 85.3%, p = 0.857). Multivariate analysis suggested ER operator could not be an independent predictor for technical success. CTO-PCI performed by less experienced but appropriately trained operators could achieve similarly high technical success rate with comparable safety compared with those performed by highly experienced specialists in contemporary Japanese context.

Glasgow prognostic score can be a prognostic indicator after percutaneous coronary intervention: a two-center study in Japan.

Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) has been used to evaluate inflammatory response and nutritional status. This study aimed to investigate the impact of nutritional status on cardiac prognosis by using GPS in patients after undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We included 862 patients who underwent PCI for stable angina pectoris between 2015 and 2018. We used the original cutoff values, which were an albumin (Alb) level of 3.5 g/dl and a C-reactive protein (CRP) level of 0.3 mg/dl. We categorized them into the three groups: originally defined GPS (od-GPS) 0 (high Alb and low CRP), 1 (low Alb or high CRP), and 2 (low Alb and high CRP). Major adverse clinical events (MACEs) included all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, revascularization, and hospitalization for heart failure. The median follow-up period was 398.5 days. During the follow-up, MACEs occurred in 136 patients. Od-GPS 2 had higher prevalence rates in terms of chronic kidney disease (CKD; 31.7% [229/722] vs. 44.9% [53/118] vs. 63.6% [14/22], p < 0.001), hemodialysis (6.4% [46/722] vs. 14.4% [17/118] vs. 31.8% [7/22], p < 0.001), and heart failure cases (HF; 9.1% [66/722] vs. 14.4% [17/118] vs. 27.3% [6/22], p = 0.007), with higher creatinine (1.17 ± 1.37 mg/dl vs. 1.89 ± 2.60 mg/dl vs. 3.49 ± 4.01 mg/dl, p < 0.001) and brain natriuretic peptide levels (104.1 ± 304.6 pg/ml vs. 242.4 ± 565.9 pg/ml vs. 668.1 ± 872.2 pg/ml, p < 0.001) and lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (101.5 ± 32.9 mg/dl vs. 98.2 ± 28.8 mg/dl vs. 77.1 ± 24.3 mg/dl, p = 0.002) than od-GPS 0 and 1.Od-GPS 2 (HR 2.42; 95% CI 1.16-5.02; p = 0.018), od-GPS 1 (HR 2.09; 95% CI 1.40-3.13; p < 0.001), diabetes (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.00-1.99; p = 0.048), CKD (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.49-2.96; p < 0.001), and HF (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.05-2.56; p = 0.029) were independent predictors of MACEs. A scoring system using CRP and Alb levels with a milder definition than GPS suitably predicted the risk of MACEs in the patients who underwent PCI.

Identifying risk patterns in older adults with atrial fibrillation by hierarchical cluster analysis: A retrospective approach based on the risk probability for clinical events.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) have highly diverse risk levels for mortality, heart failure (HF), thromboembolism (TE), and major bleeding (MB), thus an integrated risk-pattern algorithm is warranted. METHODS: We analyzed 573 AF patients aged ≥ 75 years from our single-center cohort (Shinken Database 2010-2018). The 3-year risk scores (risk probability) for mortality (M-score), HF (HF-score), TE (TE-score), and MB (MB-score) were estimated for each patient by logistic regression analysis. Using the four risk scores, cluster analysis was performed with Ward's linkage hierarchical algorithm. RESULTS: Three clusters were identified: Clusters 1 (n = 429, 74%), 2 (n = 24, 5%), and 3 (n = 120, 21%). The clusters were characterized as standard risk (Cluster 1), high TE- and MB-risk (Cluster 2), and high M- and HF-risk (Cluster 3). Oral anticoagulants were prescribed for over 80% of the patients in each cluster. Catheter ablation for AF was performed only in Cluster 1 (8.9%). Compared with Cluster 1, Cluster 2 was more closely associated with males, asymptomatic AF, history of cerebral infarction or transient ischemic attack, history of intracranial hemorrhage, high HAS-BLED score (≥3), and low body mass index (<18.0 kg/m2). Cluster 3 was more closely associated with old age, heart failure, and low estimated creatinine clearance (<30 mL/min). CONCLUSION: The cluster analysis identified those at a high risk for all-cause death and HF or a high risk for TE and MB and could support decision making in older adults with AF.

Association between number of medications and mortality among older adult patients in a specialized cardiology hospital.

AIM: Although polypharmacy has been associated with poor clinical outcomes, whether taking an increased number of medications is harmful or beneficial for older adult patients treated for cardiovascular diseases might require further discussion. METHODS: We analyzed data of 2089 patients aged ≥75 years in a single hospital-based cohort. The study population was divided into three groups according to the tertiles of the number of medications at baseline: <3 (n = 647), 3-7 (n = 707) and ≥8 (n = 735). RESULTS: The cumulative incidences of all-cause death at 3 years among patients taking less than three, three to seven and eight or more medications were 3.7%, 4.1% and 7.8%, respectively (log-rank test P = 0.015). In a Cox regression analysis, taking eight or more total medications (vs 0-2) was independently associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio 1.67, 95% CI 1.01-2.78). For predicting mortality using the number of medications, the maximum Youden Index was 7. In subgroups with certain heart diseases, no regular tendency of an increase in the risk of all-cause death was observed with an increase in the number of medications. CONCLUSIONS: The number of medications taken was independently associated with mortality among older adult patients, with a relatively high cut-off point. This association was not observed in patients with certain heart diseases, possibly indicating the merit - rather than the harm - of medical treatment in the cardiovascular field. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 985-995.