Long term declines in the functional diversity of sharks in the coastal oceans of eastern Australia.

Human impacts lead to widespread changes in the abundance, diversity and traits of shark assemblages, altering the functioning of coastal ecosystems. The functional consequences of shark declines are often poorly understood due to the absence of empirical data describing long-term change. We use data from the Queensland Shark Control Program in eastern Australia, which has deployed mesh nets and baited hooks across 80 beaches using standardised methodologies since 1962. We illustrate consistent declines in shark functional richness quantified using both ecological (e.g., feeding, habitat and movement) and morphological (e.g., size, morphology) traits, and this corresponds with declining ecological functioning. We demonstrate a community shift from targeted apex sharks to a greater functional richness of non-target species. Declines in apex shark functional richness and corresponding changes in non-target species may lead to an anthropogenically induced trophic cascade. We suggest that repairing diminished shark populations is crucial for the stability of coastal ecosystems.

Dredging transforms the seafloor and enhances functional diversity in urban seascapes.

Landscape modification alters the condition of ecosystems and the complexity of terrain, with consequences for animal assemblages and ecosystem functioning. In coastal seascapes, dredging is routine practice for extracting sediments and maintaining navigation channels worldwide. Dredging modifies processes and assemblages by favouring species with wide trophic niches, diverse habitat requirements and tolerances to dredge-related eutrophication and sedimentation. Dredging also transforms the three-dimensional features of the seafloor, but the functional consequences of these terrain changes remain unclear. We investigated the effects of terrain modification on the functional diversity of fish assemblages in natural and dredged estuaries to examine whether dredging programs could be optimised to minimise impacts on ecological functioning. Fish assemblages were surveyed with baited remote underwater video stations and variation in functional niche space was described using species traits to calculate metrics that index functional diversity. Terrain variation was quantified with nine complementary surface metrics including depth, aspect, curvature, slope and roughness extracted from sonar-derived bathymetry maps. Functional diversity was, surprisingly, higher in dredged estuaries, which supported more generalist species with wider functional niches, and from lower trophic levels, than natural estuaries. These positive effects of dredging on functional diversity were, however, spatially restricted and were linked to both the area and orientation of terrain modification. Functional diversity was highest in urban estuaries where dredged channels were small (i.e. <1% of the estuary), and where channel slopes were orientated towards the poles (i.e. 171-189°), promoting both terrain variation and light penetration in urban estuaries. Our findings highlight previously unrecognised functional consequences of terrain modification that can easily be incorporated into dredging programs. We demonstrate that restricting the spatial extent of dredging operations and the orientation of dredged channel slopes, wherever this is practical, could help to limit impacts on ecosystem functioning and productivity in urban seascapes.

Human modifications to estuaries correlate with the morphology and functional roles of coastal fish.

Animals can respond to human impacts by favouring different morphological traits or by exploiting different food resources. We quantified the morphology and diet of four functionally different fish species (n = 543 fish) from 13 estuaries with varying degrees of human modification in Queensland, Australia. We found differences in the responses of trophic groups to the environmental conditions of estuaries; principally the extent of seagrass in the estuary, and the amount of shoreline and catchment urbanisation. Here, seagrass and urbanisation extent correlated with the diet and morphology of zooplanktivores and detritivores; thereby indicating that human modifications may modify these species functional roles. Conversely, environmental variables did not correlate with the diet or morphology of zoobenthivores or piscivores thereby indicating that human modifications may have less an effect on these species functional roles. Our findings demonstrate that anthropogenic impacts to coastal ecosystems might extend from the traditionally measured metrics of abundance and diversity.

Disturbance type determines how connectivity shapes ecosystem resilience.

Connectivity is fundamentally important for shaping the resilience of complex human and natural networks when systems are disturbed. Ecosystem resilience is, in part, shaped by the spatial arrangement of habitats, the permeability and fluxes between them, the stabilising functions performed by organisms, their dispersal traits, and the interactions between functions and stressor types. Controlled investigations of the relationships between these phenomena under multiple stressors are sparse, possibly due to logistic and ethical difficulties associated with applying and controlling stressors at landscape scales. Here we show that grazing performance, a key ecosystem function, is linked to connectivity by manipulating the spatial configuration of habitats in microcosms impacted by multiple stressors. Greater connectivity enhanced ecosystem function and reduced variability in grazing performance in unperturbed systems. Improved functional performance was observed in better connected systems stressed by harvesting pressure and temperature rise, but this effect was notably reversed by the spread of disease. Connectivity has complex effects on ecological functions and resilience, and the nuances should be recognised more fully in ecosystem conservation.

Climate drives the geography of marine consumption by changing predator communities.

The global distribution of primary production and consumption by humans (fisheries) is well-documented, but we have no map linking the central ecological process of consumption within food webs to temperature and other ecological drivers. Using standardized assays that span 105° of latitude on four continents, we show that rates of bait consumption by generalist predators in shallow marine ecosystems are tightly linked to both temperature and the composition of consumer assemblages. Unexpectedly, rates of consumption peaked at midlatitudes (25 to 35°) in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres across both seagrass and unvegetated sediment habitats. This pattern contrasts with terrestrial systems, where biotic interactions reportedly weaken away from the equator, but it parallels an emerging pattern of a subtropical peak in marine biodiversity. The higher consumption at midlatitudes was closely related to the type of consumers present, which explained rates of consumption better than consumer density, biomass, species diversity, or habitat. Indeed, the apparent effect of temperature on consumption was mostly driven by temperature-associated turnover in consumer community composition. Our findings reinforce the key influence of climate warming on altered species composition and highlight its implications for the functioning of Earth's ecosystems.

Diverse land uses and high coastal urbanisation do not always result in harmful environmental pollutants in fisheries species.

Human activities in coastal catchments can cause the accumulation of pollutants in seafood. We quantified the concentration of heavy metals, pesticides and PFASs in the flesh of the fisheries species yellowfin bream Acanthopagrus australis (n = 57) and mud crab Scylla serrata (n = 65) from 13 estuaries in southeast Queensland, Australia; a region with a variety of human land uses. Pollutants in yellowfin bream were best explained by the extent of intensive uses in the catchment. Pollutants in mud crabs were best explained by the extent of irrigated agriculture and water bodies. No samples contained detectable levels of pesticides, and only six samples contained low levels of PFASs. Metals were common in fish and crab flesh, but only mercury in yellowfin bream from the Mooloolah River breached Australian food safety standards. High pollutant presence and concentration is not the norm in seafood collected during routine surveys, even in estuaries with highly modified catchments.

Landscape context and nutrients modify the effects of coastal urbanisation.

Estuaries are focal points for coastal cities worldwide, their habitats frequently transformed into engineered shorelines abutting waters with elevated nutrients in an urbanised landscape. Here we test for relationships between shoreline armouring and nutrients on the diversity and trophic composition of fish assemblages across 22 estuaries in eastern Australia. Urbanisation was associated with fish diversity and abundance, but there were differences in the effects of shoreline armouring and nutrient level on the trophic composition of fish assemblages. Fish diversity and the abundance of most trophic groups, particularly omnivores, zoobenthivores and detritivores, was greatest in highly urban estuaries. We show that estuarine fish assemblages are associated with urbanisation in more nuanced ways than simple habitat transformation would suggest, but this depends on the broader environmental context. Our findings have wider implications for estuarine conservation and restoration, emphasizing that ecological benefits of habitat measures may depend on both landscape attributes and water quality in urban settings.

Low redundancy and complementarity shape ecosystem functioning in a low-diversity ecosystem.

Ecosystem functioning is positively linked to biodiversity on land and in the sea. In high-diversity systems (e.g. coral reefs), species coexist by sharing resources and providing similar functions at different temporal or spatial scales. How species combine to deliver the ecological function they provide is pivotal for maintaining the structure, functioning and resilience of some ecosystems, but the significance of this is rarely examined in low-diversity systems such as estuaries. We tested whether an ecological function is shaped by biodiversity in a low-diversity ecosystem by measuring the consumption of carrion by estuarine scavengers. Carrion (e.g. decaying animal flesh) is opportunistically fed on by a large number of species across numerous ecosystems. Estuaries were chosen as the model system because carrion consumption is a pivotal ecological function in coastal seascapes, and estuaries are thought to support diverse scavenger assemblages, which are modified by changes in water quality and the urbanization of estuarine shorelines. We used baited underwater video arrays to record scavengers and measure the rate at which carrion was consumed by fish in 39 estuaries across 1,000 km of coastline in eastern Australia. Carrion consumption was positively correlated with the abundance of only one species, yellowfin bream Acanthopagrus australis, which consumed 58% of all deployed carrion. The consumption of carrion by yellowfin bream was greatest in urban estuaries with moderately hardened shorelines (20%-60%) and relatively large subtidal rock bars (>0.1 km2 ). Our findings demonstrate that an ecological function can be maintained across estuarine seascapes despite both limited redundancy (i.e. dominated by one species) and complementarity (i.e. there is no spatial context where the function is delivered significantly when yellowfin bream are not present) in the functional traits of animal assemblages. The continued functioning of estuaries, and other low-diversity ecosystems, might therefore not be tightly linked to biodiversity, and we suggest that the preservation of functionally dominant species that maintain functions in these systems could help to improve conservation outcomes for coastal seascapes.

Effects of seascape connectivity on reserve performance along exposed coastlines.

Seascape connectivity (landscape connectivity in the sea) can modify reserve performance in low-energy marine ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass), but it is not clear whether similar spatial linkages also shape reserve effectiveness on high-energy, exposed coastlines. We used the surf zones of ocean beaches in eastern Australia as a model system to test how seascape connectivity and reserve attributes combine to shape conservation outcomes. Spatial patterns in fish assemblages were measured using baited remote underwater video stations in 12 marine reserves and 15 fished beaches across 2000 km of exposed coastline. Reserve performance was shaped by both the characteristics of reserves and the spatial properties of the coastal seascapes in which reserves were embedded. Number of fish species and abundance of harvested fishes were highest in surf-zone reserves that encompassed >1.5 km of the surf zone; were located < 100 m to rocky headlands; and included pocket beaches in a heterogeneous seascape. Conservation outcomes for exposed coastlines may, therefore, be enhanced by prioritizing sufficiently large areas of seascapes that are strongly linked to abutting complementary habitats. Our findings have broader implications for coastal conservation planning. Empirical data to describe how the ecological features of high-energy shorelines influence conservation outcomes are lacking, and we suggest that seascape connectivity may have similar ecological effects on reserve performance on both sheltered and exposed coastlines.

Efectos de la Conectividad de Paisajes Marinos sobre el Desempeño de las Reservas a lo largo de Costas Expuestas Resumen La conectividad entre paisajes marinos puede modificar el desempeño de las reservas en los ecosistemas marinos de baja energía (p. ej.: arrecifes de coral, manglares, pastos marinos), pero no está claro si las conexiones espaciales similares también moldean la efectividad de las reservas en costas expuestas con alta energía. Usamos las zonas de rompimiento de las playas oceánicas en el este de Australia como sistema modelo para probar cómo la conectividad entre paisajes marinos y los atributos de la reserva se combinan para moldear los resultados de la conservación. Los patrones espaciales en los ensamblados de peces se midieron con estaciones remotas de video subacuático con carnada en doce reservas marinas y 15 playas a lo largo de 2000 km de costas expuestas. El desempeño de las reservas estuvo moldeado por las características de las reservas y las propiedades espaciales de los paisajes costeros en los cuales estaban insertadas las reservas. El número de especies de peces y la abundancia de peces recolectados fue mucho mayor en las reservas en las zonas de rompimiento que abarcaban >1.5 km de la zona de rompimiento; estaban localizadas a <100 m de cabos rocosos; e incluían playas pequeñas entre los cabos en un paisaje marino heterogéneo. Los resultados de conservación para las costas expuestas pueden, por lo tanto, mejorarse con la priorización suficiente de grandes áreas de paisajes marinos que están conectados fuertemente con hábitats complementarios colindantes. Nuestros hallazgos tienen consecuencias más generales para la planeación de la conservación costera. Los datos empíricos para describir cómo las características ecológicas de las costas con alta energía influyen sobre los resultados de conservación son muy pocos, y sugerimos que la conectividad entre paisajes marinos puede tener efectos ecológicos similares sobre el desempeño de las reservas en costas expuestas y resguardadas.

Highly Disturbed Populations of Seagrass Show Increased Resilience but Lower Genotypic Diversity.

The response of seagrass systems to a severe disturbance provides an opportunity to quantify the degree of resilience in different meadows, and subsequently to test whether there is a genetic basis to resilience. We used existing data on levels of long-standing disturbance from poor water quality, and the responses of seagrass (Zostera muelleri) after an extreme flood event in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Sites were grouped into high and low disturbance categories, in which seagrass showed high and low resilience, respectively, as determined by measuring rates of key feedback processes (nutrient removal, suppression of sediment resuspension, and algal grazing), and physiological and morphological traits. Theoretically, meadows with higher genotypic diversity would be expected to have greater resilience. However, because the more resilient meadows occur in areas historically exposed to high disturbance, the alternative is also possible, that selection will have resulted in a narrower, less diverse subset of genotypes than in less disturbed meadows. Levels of genotypic and genetic diversity (allelic richness) based on 11 microsatellite loci, were positively related (R2 = 0.58). Genotypic diversity was significantly lower at highly disturbed sites (R = 0.49) than at less disturbed sites (R = 0.61). Genotypic diversity also showed a negative trend with two morphological characteristics known to confer resilience on seagrass in Moreton Bay, leaf chlorophyll concentrations and seagrass biomass. Genetic diversity did not differ between disturbed and undisturbed sites. We postulate that the explanation for these results is historical selection for genotypes that confer protection against disturbance, reducing diversity in meadows that contemporarily show greater resilience.

Functional plasticity in vertebrate scavenger assemblages in the presence of introduced competitors.

Introduced species may suppress or enhance ecological functions, or they may have neutral effects in ecosystems where they replace or complement native species. Few studies, however, have explicitly tested for these trajectories, and for the effect these might have for native species. In this study, we experimentally test the trajectory and scale of change in the function of 'carrion removal' at different carrion loads along ocean beaches in Eastern Australia that have different numbers of introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and several species of native raptors. We hypothesized that the 'positive' effect of foxes on carrion removal would be greatest at high carrion loads, because competition for resources between native and introduced species is lower. Scavenger abundance, fox occurrences, and carrion consumption by these species differed widely between locations and times. Despite distinct spatial differences in the structure of vertebrate scavenger assemblages, total carrion consumption was not significantly different between locations at any carrion load. This lack of variation in functional rates indicates potential functional plasticity in the scavenger assemblage and possible functional accommodation of red foxes. Neutral fox effects on ecological functions or the ecosystem more broadly are, however, very unlikely to extend beyond carrion consumption.

Monitoring nitrogen pollution in seasonally-pulsed coastal waters requires judicious choice of indicator species.

We compared the sensitivity of algae and hermit crabs to seasonal shifts in the dominance of continuous sewage discharge vs. pulsed inputs of terrestrial material to a subtropical bay. During periods of low rainfall, when sewage was proportionately more important than diffuse loads from adjacent catchments, algae and crabs provided comparable information on the spatial distribution of N pollution. Conversely, during the wet season, when diffuse nitrogen loads from the catchment were of greater importance, the isotope signal of algae decoupled from that of crabs, indexing a greater magnitude of change and a more pronounced spatial gradient. Overall, algae better indexed the short-term impacts of anthropogenic nitrogen pollution whereas the signals provided by crabs provided a longer-term integrated measure of N inputs. Our results demonstrate the value of including multiple taxa with variable traits when monitoring the spatial and temporal extent of nitrogen inputs to coastal waters.

Marine turtles are not fussy nesters: a novel test of small-scale nest site selection using structure from motion beach terrain information.

BACKGROUND: Nest selection is widely regarded as a key process determining the fitness of individuals and viability of animal populations. For marine turtles that nest on beaches, this is particularly pivotal as the nesting environment can significantly control reproductive success.The aim of this study was to identify the environmental attributes of beaches (i.e., morphology, vegetation, urbanisation) that may be associated with successful oviposition in green and loggerhead turtle nests. METHODS: We quantified the proximity of turtle nests (and surrounding beach locations) to urban areas, measured their exposure to artificial light, and used ultra-high resolution (cm-scale) digital surface models derived from Structure-from-Motion (SfM) algorithms, to characterise geomorphic and vegetation features of beaches on the Sunshine Coast, eastern Australia. RESULTS: At small spatial scales (i.e., <100 m), we found no evidence that turtles selected nest sites based on a particular suite of environmental attributes (i.e., the attributes of nest sites were not consistently different from those of surrounding beach locations). Nest sites were, however, typically characterised by occurring close to vegetation, on parts of the shore where the beach- and dune-face was concave and not highly rugged, and in areas with moderate exposure to artificial light. CONCLUSION: This study used a novel empirical approach to identify the attributes of turtle nest sites from a broader 'envelope' of environmental nest traits, and is the first step towards optimizing conservation actions to mitigate, at the local scale, present and emerging human impacts on turtle nesting beaches.

Optimising Land-Sea Management for Inshore Coral Reefs.

Management authorities seldom have the capacity to comprehensively address the full suite of anthropogenic stressors, particularly in the coastal zone where numerous threats can act simultaneously to impact reefs and other ecosystems. This situation requires tools to prioritise management interventions that result in optimum ecological outcomes under a set of constraints. Here we develop one such tool, introducing a Bayesian Belief Network to model the ecological condition of inshore coral reefs in Moreton Bay (Australia) under a range of management actions. Empirical field data was used to model a suite of possible ecological responses of coral reef assemblages to five key management actions both in the sea (e.g. expansion of reserves, mangrove & seagrass restoration, fishing restrictions) and on land (e.g. lower inputs of sediment and sewage from treatment plants). Models show that expanding marine reserves (a 'marine action') and reducing sediment inputs from the catchments (a 'land action') were the most effective investments to achieve a better status of reefs in the Bay, with both having been included in >58% of scenarios with positive outcomes, and >98% of the most effective (5th percentile) scenarios. Heightened fishing restrictions, restoring habitats, and reducing nutrient discharges from wastewater treatment plants have additional, albeit smaller effects. There was no evidence that combining individual management actions would consistently produce sizeable synergistic until after maximum investment on both marine reserves (i.e. increasing reserve extent from 31 to 62% of reefs) and sediments (i.e. rehabilitating 6350 km of waterways within catchments to reduce sediment loads by 50%) were implemented. The method presented here provides a useful tool to prioritize environmental actions in situations where multiple competing management interventions exist for coral reefs and in other systems subjected to multiple stressor from the land and the sea.

Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds.

Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. 'Topographic' exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them.

The Early Shorebird Will Catch Fewer Invertebrates on Trampled Sandy Beaches.

Many species of birds breeding on ocean beaches and in coastal dunes are of global conservation concern. Most of these species rely on invertebrates (e.g. insects, small crustaceans) as an irreplaceable food source, foraging primarily around the strandline on the upper beach near the dunes. Sandy beaches are also prime sites for human recreation, which impacts these food resources via negative trampling effects. We quantified acute trampling impacts on assemblages of upper shore invertebrates in a controlled experiment over a range of foot traffic intensities (up to 56 steps per square metre) on a temperate beach in Victoria, Australia. Trampling significantly altered assemblage structure (species composition and density) and was correlated with significant declines in invertebrate abundance and species richness. Trampling effects were strongest for rare species. In heavily trafficked plots the abundance of sand hoppers (Amphipoda), a principal prey item of threatened Hooded Plovers breeding on this beach, was halved. In contrast to the consistently strong effects of trampling, natural habitat attributes (e.g. sediment grain size, compactness) were much less influential predictors. If acute suppression of invertebrates caused by trampling, as demonstrated here, is more widespread on beaches it may constitute a significant threat to endangered vertebrates reliant on these invertebrates. This calls for a re-thinking of conservation actions by considering active management of food resources, possibly through enhancement of wrack or direct augmentation of prey items to breeding territories.

Resource type influences the effects of reserves and connectivity on ecological functions.

Connectivity is a pivotal feature of landscapes that affects the structure of populations and the functioning of ecosystems. It is also a key consideration in conservation planning. But the potential functional effects of landscape connectivity are rarely evaluated in a conservation context. The removal of algae by herbivorous fish is a key ecological function on coral reefs that promotes coral growth and recruitment. Many reef herbivores are harvested and some use other habitats (like mangroves) as nurseries or feeding areas. Thus, the effects of habitat connectivity and marine reserves can jointly promote herbivore populations on coral reefs, thereby influencing reef health. We used a coral reef seascape in eastern Australia to test whether seascape connectivity and reserves influence herbivory. We measured herbivore abundance and rates of herbivory (on turf algae and macroalgae) on reefs that differed in both their level of connectivity to adjacent mangrove habitats and their level of protection from fishing. Reserves enhanced the biomass of herbivorous fish on coral reefs in all seascape settings and promoted consumption of turf algae. Consumption of turf algae was correlated with the biomass of surgeonfish that are exploited outside reserves. By contrast, both reserve status and connectivity influenced herbivory on macroalgae. Consumption of macroalgae was greatest on fished reefs that were far from mangroves and was not strongly correlated with any fish species. Our findings demonstrate that landscape connectivity and reserve status can jointly affect the functioning of ecosystems. Moreover, we show that reserve and connectivity effects can differ markedly depending on resource type (in this case turf algae vs. macroalgae). The effectiveness of conservation initiatives will therefore depend on our ability to understand how these multiple interactive effects structure the distribution of ecological functions. These findings have wider implications for the spatial conservation of heterogeneous environments and strengthen the case that the impact of conservation on ecosystem functioning is contingent on how reserves are positioned in landscapes.

Invasive carnivores alter ecological function and enhance complementarity in scavenger assemblages on ocean beaches.

Species composition is expected to alter ecological function in assemblages if species traits differ strongly. Such effects are often large and persistent for nonnative carnivores invading islands. Alternatively, high similarity in traits within assemblages creates a degree of functional redundancy in ecosystems. Here we tested whether species turnover results in functional ecological equivalence or complementarity, and whether invasive carnivores on islands significantly alter such ecological function. The model system consisted of vertebrate scavengers (dominated by raptors) foraging on animal carcasses on ocean beaches on two Australian islands, one with and one without invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Partitioning of scavenging events among species, carcass removal rates, and detection speeds were quantified using camera traps baited with fish carcasses at the dune-beach interface. Complete segregation of temporal foraging niches between mammals (nocturnal) and birds (diurnal) reflects complementarity in carrion utilization. Conversely, functional redundancy exists within the bird guild where several species of raptors dominate carrion removal in a broadly similar way. As predicted, effects of red foxes were large. They substantially changed the nature and rate of the scavenging process in the system: (1) foxes consumed over half (55%) of all carrion available at night, compared with negligible mammalian foraging at night on the fox-free island, and (2) significant shifts in the composition of the scavenger assemblages consuming beach-cast carrion are the consequence of fox invasion at one island. Arguably, in the absence of other mammalian apex predators, the addition of red foxes creates a new dimension of functional complementarity in beach food webs. However, this functional complementarity added by foxes is neither benign nor neutral, as marine carrion subsidies to coastal red fox populations are likely to facilitate their persistence as exotic carnivores.

Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab.

Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species' ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a "hotspot" of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20-50 km.decade-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that "hotspots" of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.