ALDH2 polymorphism, alcohol intake and the attributable burden of cancer in East Asia: systematic review, meta-analysis, and modeling study.

PURPOSE: To estimate the burden of alcohol-attributable cancer in East Asian populations accounting for aldehyde dehydrogenase-2 (ALDH2) genotype-specific cancer risk and alcohol exposure. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of eight databases on cancer risk to derive alcohol dose-response curves by ALDH2 genotype. A simulation-based approach using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) modeling framework was applied to estimate the population attributable fraction, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost to alcohol-attributable cancer. RESULTS: We included 34 studies (66,655 participants) from China, Japan, and South Korea in the meta-analysis. Alcohol dose-response curves for liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer showed an increased risk for people with the inactivated ALDH2 genetic polymorphism, resulting in a higher burden of alcohol-attributable cancer compared to GBD estimates. Our methods estimated annual incidence of cancer of 230,177 cases, an underestimate of 69,596 cases compared to GBD estimates. Similarly, total DALYs lost annually were underestimated by 1.20 million. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer attributable to alcohol is underestimated in populations with the ALDH2 genetic polymorphism when compared to current estimates.

Potential health and economic impact associated with achieving risk factor control in Chinese adults with diabetes: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: The prevalence of diabetes has risen sharply in China. Improving modifiable risk factors such as glycaemia and blood pressure could substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs to achieve a healthier China by 2030. Methods: We used a nationally representative population-based survey of adults with diabetes in 31 provinces in mainland China to assess the prevalence of risk factor control. We adopted a microsimulation approach to estimate the impact of improved control of blood pressure and glycaemia on mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and healthcare cost. We applied the validated CHIME diabetes outcomes model over a 10-year time horizon. Baseline scenario of status quo was evaluated against alternative strategies based on World Health Organization and Chinese Diabetes Society guidelines. Findings: Among 24,319 survey participants with diabetes (age 30-70), 69.1% (95% CI: 67.7-70.5) achieved optimal diabetes control (HbA1c <7% [53 mmol/mol]), 27.7% [26.1-29.3] achieved blood pressure control (<130/80 mmHg) and 20.1% (18.6-21.6) achieved both targets. Achieving 70% control rate for people with diabetes could reduce deaths before age 70 by 7.1% (5.7-8.7), reduce medical costs by 14.9% (12.3-18.0), and gain 50.4 QALYs (44.8-56.0) per 1000 people over 10 years compared to the baseline status quo. The largest health gains were for strategies including strict blood pressure control of 130/80 mmHg, particularly in rural areas. Interpretation: Based on a nationally representative survey, few adults with diabetes in China achieved optimal control of glycaemia and blood pressure. Substantial health gains and economic savings are potentially achievable with better risk factor control especially in rural settings. Funding: Chinese Central Government, Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [27112518].