Causal fairness assessment of treatment allocation with electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: Healthcare continues to grapple with the persistent issue of treatment disparities, sparking concerns regarding the equitable allocation of treatments in clinical practice. While various fairness metrics have emerged to assess fairness in decision-making processes, a growing focus has been on causality-based fairness concepts due to their capacity to mitigate confounding effects and reason about bias. However, the application of causal fairness notions in evaluating the fairness of clinical decision-making with electronic health record (EHR) data remains an understudied domain. This study aims to address the methodological gap in assessing causal fairness of treatment allocation with electronic health records data. In addition, we investigate the impact of social determinants of health on the assessment of causal fairness of treatment allocation. METHODS: We propose a causal fairness algorithm to assess fairness in clinical decision-making. Our algorithm accounts for the heterogeneity of patient populations and identifies potential unfairness in treatment allocation by conditioning on patients who have the same likelihood to benefit from the treatment. We apply this framework to a patient cohort with coronary artery disease derived from an EHR database to evaluate the fairness of treatment decisions. RESULTS: Our analysis reveals notable disparities in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) allocation among different patient groups. Women were found to be 4.4%-7.7% less likely to receive CABG than men in two out of four treatment response strata. Similarly, Black or African American patients were 5.4%-8.7% less likely to receive CABG than others in three out of four response strata. These results were similar when social determinants of health (insurance and area deprivation index) were dropped from the algorithm. These findings highlight the presence of disparities in treatment allocation among similar patients, suggesting potential unfairness in the clinical decision-making process. CONCLUSION: This study introduces a novel approach for assessing the fairness of treatment allocation in healthcare. By incorporating responses to treatment into fairness framework, our method explores the potential of quantifying fairness from a causal perspective using EHR data. Our research advances the methodological development of fairness assessment in healthcare and highlight the importance of causality in determining treatment fairness.

Use of Recommended Neurodiagnostic Evaluation Among Patients With Drug-Resistant Epilepsy.

Importance: Interdisciplinary practice parameters recommend that patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) undergo comprehensive neurodiagnostic evaluation, including presurgical assessment. Reporting from specialized centers suggests long delays to referral and underuse of surgery; however, longitudinal data are limited to characterize neurodiagnostic evaluation among patients with DRE in more diverse US settings and populations. Objective: To examine the rate and factors associated with neurodiagnostic studies and comprehensive evaluation among patients with DRE within 3 US cohorts. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model including US multistate Medicaid data, commercial claims data, and Columbia University Medical Center (CUMC) electronic health record data. Patients meeting a validated computable phenotype algorithm for DRE between January 1, 2015, and April 1, 2020, were included. No eligible participants were excluded. Exposure: Demographic and clinical variables were queried. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of patients receiving a composite proxy for comprehensive neurodiagnostic evaluation, including (1) magnetic resonance or other advanced brain imaging, (2) video electroencephalography, and (3) neuropsychological evaluation within 2 years of meeting the inclusion criteria. Results: A total of 33 542 patients with DRE were included in the Medicaid cohort, 22 496 in the commercial insurance cohort, and 2741 in the CUMC database. A total of 31 516 patients (53.6%) were women. The proportion of patients meeting the comprehensive evaluation main outcome in the Medicaid cohort was 4.5% (n = 1520); in the commercial insurance cohort, 8.0% (n = 1796); and in the CUMC cohort, 14.3% (n = 393). Video electroencephalography (24.9% Medicaid, 28.4% commercial, 63.2% CUMC) and magnetic resonance imaging of the brain (35.6% Medicaid, 43.4% commercial, 52.6% CUMC) were performed more regularly than neuropsychological evaluation (13.0% Medicaid, 16.6% commercial, 19.2% CUMC) or advanced imaging (3.2% Medicaid, 5.4% commercial, 13.1% CUMC). Factors independently associated with greater odds of evaluation across all 3 data sets included the number of inpatient and outpatient nonemergency epilepsy visits and focal rather than generalized epilepsy. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest there is a gap in the use of diagnostic studies to evaluate patients with DRE. Care setting, insurance type, frequency of nonemergency visits, and epilepsy type are all associated with evaluation. A common data model can be used to measure adherence with best practices across a variety of observational data sources.

Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study.

PURPOSE: To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network. SUBJECTS: Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion). METHODS: The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure. RESULTS: Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Comparative Effectiveness of Second-line Antihyperglycemic Agents for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Large-scale, Multinational, Federated Analysis of the LEGEND-T2DM Study.

Background: SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their effectiveness relative to each other and other second-line antihyperglycemic agents is unknown, without any major ongoing head-to-head trials. Methods: Across the LEGEND-T2DM network, we included ten federated international data sources, spanning 1992-2021. We identified 1,492,855 patients with T2DM and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) on metformin monotherapy who initiated one of four second-line agents (SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor [DPP4is], sulfonylureas [SUs]). We used large-scale propensity score models to conduct an active comparator, target trial emulation for pairwise comparisons. After evaluating empirical equipoise and population generalizability, we fit on-treatment Cox proportional hazard models for 3-point MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) and 4-point MACE (3-point MACE + heart failure hospitalization) risk, and combined hazard ratio (HR) estimates in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: Across cohorts, 16·4%, 8·3%, 27·7%, and 47·6% of individuals with T2DM initiated SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, DPP4is, and SUs, respectively. Over 5·2 million patient-years of follow-up and 489 million patient-days of time at-risk, there were 25,982 3-point MACE and 41,447 4-point MACE events. SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs were associated with a lower risk for 3-point MACE compared with DPP4is (HR 0·89 [95% CI, 0·79-1·00] and 0·83 [0·70-0·98]), and SUs (HR 0·76 [0·65-0·89] and 0·71 [0·59-0·86]). DPP4is were associated with a lower 3-point MACE risk versus SUs (HR 0·87 [0·79-0·95]). The pattern was consistent for 4-point MACE for the comparisons above. There were no significant differences between SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs for 3-point or 4-point MACE (HR 1·06 [0·96-1·17] and 1·05 [0·97-1·13]). Interpretation: In patients with T2DM and established CVD, we found comparable cardiovascular risk reduction with SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs, with both agents more effective than DPP4is, which in turn were more effective than SUs. These findings suggest that the use of GLP1-RAs and SGLT2is should be prioritized as second-line agents in those with established CVD. Funding: National Institutes of Health, United States Department of Veterans Affairs.

OHDSI Standardized Vocabularies-a large-scale centralized reference ontology for international data harmonization.

IMPORTANCE: The Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) is the largest distributed data network in the world encompassing more than 331 data sources with 2.1 billion patient records across 34 countries. It enables large-scale observational research through standardizing the data into a common data model (CDM) (Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership [OMOP] CDM) and requires a comprehensive, efficient, and reliable ontology system to support data harmonization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We created the OHDSI Standardized Vocabularies-a common reference ontology mandatory to all data sites in the network. It comprises imported and de novo-generated ontologies containing concepts and relationships between them, and the praxis of converting the source data to the OMOP CDM based on these. It enables harmonization through assigned domains according to clinical categories, comprehensive coverage of entities within each domain, support for commonly used international coding schemes, and standardization of semantically equivalent concepts. RESULTS: The OHDSI Standardized Vocabularies comprise over 10 million concepts from 136 vocabularies. They are used by hundreds of groups and several large data networks. More than 8600 users have performed 50 000 downloads of the system. This open-source resource has proven to address an impediment of large-scale observational research-the dependence on the context of source data representation. With that, it has enabled efficient phenotyping, covariate construction, patient-level prediction, population-level estimation, and standard reporting. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: OHDSI has made available a comprehensive, open vocabulary system that is unmatched in its ability to support global observational research. We encourage researchers to exploit it and contribute their use cases to this dynamic resource.

A High-Fidelity Combined ATC-Rxnorm Drug Hierarchy for Large-Scale Observational Research.

Observational research utilizes patient information from many disparate databases worldwide. To be able to systematically analyze data and compare the results of such research studies, information about exposure to drugs or classes of drugs needs to be harmonized across these data. The NLM's RxNorm drug terminology and WHO's ATC classification serve these needs but are currently not satisfactorily combined into a common system. Creating such system is hampered by a number of challenges, resulting from different approaches to representing attributes of drugs and ontological rules. Here, we present a combined ATC-RxNorm drug hierarchy, allowing to use ATC classes for retrieval of drug information in large scale observational data. We present the heuristic for maintaining this resource and evaluate it in a real world database containing drug and drug classification information.

Evaluating the impact of alternative phenotype definitions on incidence rates across a global data network.

Objective: Developing accurate phenotype definitions is critical in obtaining reliable and reproducible background rates in safety research. This study aims to illustrate the differences in background incidence rates by comparing definitions for a given outcome. Materials and Methods: We used 16 data sources to systematically generate and evaluate outcomes for 13 adverse events and their overall background rates. We examined the effect of different modifications (inpatient setting, standardization of code set, and code set changes) to the computable phenotype on background incidence rates. Results: Rate ratios (RRs) of the incidence rates from each computable phenotype definition varied across outcomes, with inpatient restriction showing the highest variation from 1 to 11.93. Standardization of code set RRs ranges from 1 to 1.64, and code set changes range from 1 to 2.52. Discussion: The modification that has the highest impact is requiring inpatient place of service, leading to at least a 2-fold higher incidence rate in the base definition. Standardization showed almost no change when using source code variations. The strength of the effect in the inpatient restriction is highly dependent on the outcome. Changing definitions from broad to narrow showed the most variability by age/gender/database across phenotypes and less than a 2-fold increase in rate compared to the base definition. Conclusion: Characterization of outcomes across a network of databases yields insights into sensitivity and specificity trade-offs when definitions are altered. Outcomes should be thoroughly evaluated prior to use for background rates for their plausibility for use across a global network.

Scalable and interpretable alternative to chart review for phenotype evaluation using standardized structured data from electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES: Chart review as the current gold standard for phenotype evaluation cannot support observational research on electronic health records and claims data sources at scale. We aimed to evaluate the ability of structured data to support efficient and interpretable phenotype evaluation as an alternative to chart review. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed Knowledge-Enhanced Electronic Profile Review (KEEPER) as a phenotype evaluation tool that extracts patient's structured data elements relevant to a phenotype and presents them in a standardized fashion following clinical reasoning principles. We evaluated its performance (interrater agreement, intermethod agreement, accuracy, and review time) compared to manual chart review for 4 conditions using randomized 2-period, 2-sequence crossover design. RESULTS: Case ascertainment with KEEPER was twice as fast compared to manual chart review. 88.1% of the patients were classified concordantly using charts and KEEPER, but agreement varied depending on the condition. Missing data and differences in interpretation accounted for most of the discrepancies. Pairs of clinicians agreed in case ascertainment in 91.2% of the cases when using KEEPER compared to 76.3% when using charts. Patient classification aligned with the gold standard in 88.1% and 86.9% of the cases respectively. CONCLUSION: Structured data can be used for efficient and interpretable phenotype evaluation if they are limited to relevant subset and organized according to the clinical reasoning principles. A system that implements these principles can achieve noninferior performance compared to chart review at a fraction of time.

Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups: federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.

Objective: To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin. Design: Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM. Setting: 10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021. Participants: 4.8 million patients (≥18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments. Exposure: The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort. Main outcomes measures: The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated. Results: 4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61 382 from Spain, 32 442 from Germany, 25 173 from the UK, 13 270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

A deep learning-based electrocardiogram risk score for long term cardiovascular death and disease.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most frequently performed cardiovascular diagnostic test, but it is unclear how much information resting ECGs contain about long term cardiovascular risk. Here we report that a deep convolutional neural network can accurately predict the long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality and disease based on a resting ECG alone. Using a large dataset of resting 12-lead ECGs collected at Stanford University Medical Center, we developed SEER, the Stanford Estimator of Electrocardiogram Risk. SEER predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 in a held-out test set at Stanford, and with AUCs of 0.78 and 0.83 respectively when independently evaluated at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. SEER predicts 5-year atherosclerotic disease (ASCVD) with an AUC of 0.67, similar to the Pooled Cohort Equations for ASCVD Risk, while being only modestly correlated. When used in conjunction with the Pooled Cohort Equations, SEER accurately reclassified 16% of patients from low to moderate risk, uncovering a group with an actual average 9.9% 10-year ASCVD risk who would not have otherwise been indicated for statin therapy. SEER can also predict several other cardiovascular conditions such as heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Using only lead I of the ECG it predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an AUC of 0.80. SEER, used alongside the Pooled Cohort Equations and other risk tools, can substantially improve cardiovascular risk stratification and aid in medical decision making.

A metadata framework for computational phenotypes.

With the burgeoning development of computational phenotypes, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right phenotype for the right tasks. This study uses a mixed-methods approach to develop and evaluate a novel metadata framework for retrieval of and reusing computational phenotypes. Twenty active phenotyping researchers from 2 large research networks, Electronic Medical Records and Genomics and Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, were recruited to suggest metadata elements. Once consensus was reached on 39 metadata elements, 47 new researchers were surveyed to evaluate the utility of the metadata framework. The survey consisted of 5-Likert multiple-choice questions and open-ended questions. Two more researchers were asked to use the metadata framework to annotate 8 type-2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. More than 90% of the survey respondents rated metadata elements regarding phenotype definition and validation methods and metrics positively with a score of 4 or 5. Both researchers completed annotation of each phenotype within 60 min. Our thematic analysis of the narrative feedback indicates that the metadata framework was effective in capturing rich and explicit descriptions and enabling the search for phenotypes, compliance with data standards, and comprehensive validation metrics. Current limitations were its complexity for data collection and the entailed human costs.

Ontologizing health systems data at scale: making translational discovery a reality.

Common data models solve many challenges of standardizing electronic health record (EHR) data but are unable to semantically integrate all of the resources needed for deep phenotyping. Open Biological and Biomedical Ontology (OBO) Foundry ontologies provide computable representations of biological knowledge and enable the integration of heterogeneous data. However, mapping EHR data to OBO ontologies requires significant manual curation and domain expertise. We introduce OMOP2OBO, an algorithm for mapping Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) vocabularies to OBO ontologies. Using OMOP2OBO, we produced mappings for 92,367 conditions, 8611 drug ingredients, and 10,673 measurement results, which covered 68-99% of concepts used in clinical practice when examined across 24 hospitals. When used to phenotype rare disease patients, the mappings helped systematically identify undiagnosed patients who might benefit from genetic testing. By aligning OMOP vocabularies to OBO ontologies our algorithm presents new opportunities to advance EHR-based deep phenotyping.

Reproducible variability: assessing investigator discordance across 9 research teams attempting to reproduce the same observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies can impact patient care but must be robust and reproducible. Nonreproducibility is primarily caused by unclear reporting of design choices and analytic procedures. This study aimed to: (1) assess how the study logic described in an observational study could be interpreted by independent researchers and (2) quantify the impact of interpretations' variability on patient characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine teams of highly qualified researchers reproduced a cohort from a study by Albogami et al. The teams were provided the clinical codes and access to the tools to create cohort definitions such that the only variable part was their logic choices. We executed teams' cohort definitions against the database and compared the number of subjects, patient overlap, and patient characteristics. RESULTS: On average, the teams' interpretations fully aligned with the master implementation in 4 out of 10 inclusion criteria with at least 4 deviations per team. Cohorts' size varied from one-third of the master cohort size to 10 times the cohort size (2159-63 619 subjects compared to 6196 subjects). Median agreement was 9.4% (interquartile range 15.3-16.2%). The teams' cohorts significantly differed from the master implementation by at least 2 baseline characteristics, and most of the teams differed by at least 5. CONCLUSIONS: Independent research teams attempting to reproduce the study based on its free-text description alone produce different implementations that vary in the population size and composition. Sharing analytical code supported by a common data model and open-source tools allows reproducing a study unambiguously thereby preserving initial design choices.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without asthma from the United States, South Korea, and Europe.

Objective: Large international comparisons describing the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 are limited. The aim of the study was to perform a large-scale descriptive characterization of COVID-19 patients with asthma.Methods: We included nine databases contributing data from January to June 2020 from the US, South Korea (KR), Spain, UK and the Netherlands. We defined two cohorts of COVID-19 patients ('diagnosed' and 'hospitalized') based on COVID-19 disease codes. We followed patients from COVID-19 index date to 30 days or death. We performed descriptive analysis and reported the frequency of characteristics and outcomes in people with asthma defined by codes and prescriptions.Results: The diagnosed and hospitalized cohorts contained 666,933 and 159,552 COVID-19 patients respectively. Exacerbation in people with asthma was recorded in 1.6-8.6% of patients at presentation. Asthma prevalence ranged from 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8) to 18.5% (95% CI 18.2-18.8) in the diagnosed cohort and 5.2% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) to 20.5% (95% CI 18.6-22.6) in the hospitalized cohort. Asthma patients with COVID-19 had high prevalence of comorbidity including hypertension, heart disease, diabetes and obesity. Mortality ranged from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8-2.4) to 16.9% (95% CI 13.8-20.5) and similar or lower compared to COVID-19 patients without asthma. Acute respiratory distress syndrome occurred in 15-30% of hospitalized COVID-19 asthma patients.Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma among COVID-19 patients varies internationally. Asthma patients with COVID-19 have high comorbidity. The prevalence of asthma exacerbation at presentation was low. Whilst mortality was similar among COVID-19 patients with and without asthma, this could be confounded by differences in clinical characteristics. Further research could help identify high-risk asthma patients.[Box: see text]Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02770903.2021.2025392 .

What are the Desired Characteristics of Calibration Sets? Identifying Correlates on Long Form Scientific Summarization.

Summarization models often generate text that is poorly calibrated to quality metrics because they are trained to maximize the likelihood of a single reference (MLE). To address this, recent work has added a calibration step, which exposes a model to its own ranked outputs to improve relevance or, in a separate line of work, contrasts positive and negative sets to improve faithfulness. While effective, much of this work has focused on how to generate and optimize these sets. Less is known about why one setup is more effective than another. In this work, we uncover the underlying characteristics of effective sets. For each training instance, we form a large, diverse pool of candidates and systematically vary the subsets used for calibration fine-tuning. Each selection strategy targets distinct aspects of the sets, such as lexical diversity or the size of the gap between positive and negatives. On three diverse scientific long-form summarization datasets (spanning biomedical, clinical, and chemical domains), we find, among others, that faithfulness calibration is optimal when the negative sets are extractive and more likely to be generated, whereas for relevance calibration, the metric margin between candidates should be maximized and surprise-the disagreement between model and metric defined candidate rankings-minimized. Code to create, select, and optimize calibration sets is available at https://github.com/griff4692/calibrating-summaries.

Data assimilation on mechanistic models of glucose metabolism predicts glycemic states in adolescents following bariatric surgery.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a complex and under-treated disorder closely intertwined with obesity. Adolescents with severe obesity and type 2 diabetes have a more aggressive disease compared to adults, with a rapid decline in pancreatic ß cell function and increased incidence of comorbidities. Given the relative paucity of pharmacotherapies, bariatric surgery has become increasingly used as a therapeutic option. However, subsets of this population have sub-optimal outcomes with either inadequate weight loss or little improvement in disease. Predicting which patients will benefit from surgery is a difficult task and detailed physiological characteristics of patients who do not respond to treatment are generally unknown. Identifying physiological predictors of surgical response therefore has the potential to reveal both novel phenotypes of disease as well as therapeutic targets. We leverage data assimilation paired with mechanistic models of glucose metabolism to estimate pre-operative physiological states of bariatric surgery patients, thereby identifying latent phenotypes of impaired glucose metabolism. Specifically, maximal insulin secretion capacity, σ, and insulin sensitivity, SI, differentiate aberrations in glucose metabolism underlying an individual's disease. Using multivariable logistic regression, we combine clinical data with data assimilation to predict post-operative glycemic outcomes at 12 months. Models using data assimilation sans insulin had comparable performance to models using oral glucose tolerance test glucose and insulin. Our best performing models used data assimilation and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.7665, 0.7734) and mean average precision of 0.6258 (0.6206, 0.6311). We show that data assimilation extracts knowledge from mechanistic models of glucose metabolism to infer future glycemic states from limited clinical data. This method can provide a pathway to predict long-term, post-surgical glycemic states by estimating the contributions of insulin resistance and limitations of insulin secretion to pre-operative glucose metabolism.

Identification of patients with drug-resistant epilepsy in electronic medical record data using the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model.

OBJECTIVE: More than one third of appropriately treated patients with epilepsy have continued seizures despite two or more medication trials, meeting criteria for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE). Accurate and reliable identification of patients with DRE in observational data would enable large-scale, real-world comparative effectiveness research and improve access to specialized epilepsy care. In the present study, we aim to develop and compare the performance of computable phenotypes for DRE using the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model. METHODS: We randomly sampled 600 patients from our academic medical center's electronic health record (EHR)-derived OMOP database meeting previously validated criteria for epilepsy (January 2015-August 2021). Two reviewers manually classified patients as having DRE, drug-responsive epilepsy, undefined drug responsiveness, or no epilepsy as of the last EHR encounter in the study period based on consensus definitions. Demographic characteristics and codes for diagnoses, antiseizure medications (ASMs), and procedures were tested for association with DRE. Algorithms combining permutations of these factors were applied to calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for DRE. The F1 score was used to compare overall performance. RESULTS: Among 412 patients with source record-confirmed epilepsy, 62 (15.0%) had DRE, 163 (39.6%) had drug-responsive epilepsy, 124 (30.0%) had undefined drug responsiveness, and 63 (15.3%) had insufficient records. The best performing phenotype for DRE in terms of the F1 score was the presence of ≥1 intractable epilepsy code and ≥2 unique non-gabapentinoid ASM exposures each with ≥90-day drug era (sensitivity = .661, specificity = .937, PPV = .594, NPV = .952, F1 score = .626). Several phenotypes achieved higher sensitivity at the expense of specificity and vice versa. SIGNIFICANCE: OMOP algorithms can identify DRE in EHR-derived data with varying tradeoffs between sensitivity and specificity. These computable phenotypes can be applied across the largest international network of standardized clinical databases for further validation, reproducible observational research, and improving access to appropriate care.

COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness rates by week and sources of bias: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness over six 7-day intervals after the first dose and assess underlying bias in observational data. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort study using Columbia University Irving Medical Center data linked to state and city immunisation registries. OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We used large-scale propensity score matching with up to 54 987 covariates, fitted Cox proportional hazards models and constructed Kaplan-Meier plots for two main outcomes (COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-associated hospitalisation). We conducted manual chart review of cases in week 1 in both groups along with a set of secondary analyses for other index date, outcome and population choices. RESULTS: The study included 179 666 patients. We observed increasing effectiveness after the first dose of mRNA vaccines with week 6 effectiveness approximating 84% (95% CI 72% to 91%) for COVID-19 infection and 86% (95% CI 69% to 95%) for COVID-19-associated hospitalisation. When analysing unexpectedly high effectiveness in week 1, chart review revealed that vaccinated patients are less likely to seek care after vaccination and are more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 during the encounters for other conditions. Secondary analyses highlighted potential outcome misclassification for International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis, the influence of excluding patients with prior COVID-19 infection and anchoring in the unexposed group. Long-term vaccine effectiveness in fully vaccinated patients matched the results of the randomised trials. CONCLUSIONS: For vaccine effectiveness studies, observational data need to be scrutinised to ensure compared groups exhibit similar health-seeking behaviour and are equally likely to be captured in the data. While we found that studies may be capable of accurately estimating long-term effectiveness despite bias in early weeks, the early week results should be reported in every study so that we may gain a better understanding of the biases. Given the difference in temporal trends of vaccine exposure and patients' baseline characteristics, indirect comparison of vaccines may produce biased results.

Pneumococcal vaccination coverage among adults newly diagnosed with underlying medical conditions and regional variation in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends pneumococcal vaccination for adults with chronic or immunocompromising conditions to prevent pneumococcal disease, yet vaccination rates are low and have limited information on regional variation. This study examines factors associated with pneumococcal vaccination in adults with underlying conditions and describes regional variation in vaccination across the U.S. METHODS: Using IBM MarketScan Commercial Database and Medicare Supplemental Database, this retrospective cohort study included adults ages 19-64 newly diagnosed with chronic (i.e. diabetes, chronic heart, lung, or liver disease, alcohol or tobacco dependence) or immunocompromising (i.e. cancer, chronic renal disease, organ transplant, HIV/AIDS, and asplenia) conditions in 2013. Adults were followed up until the time of pneumococcal vaccination, death, or December 31, 2019, whichever came first. Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine factors associated with vaccination. Vaccination rate was calculated by metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and visually represented on a U.S. map. RESULTS: 255,330 adults were included. Vaccination rate increased from 6.0% to 21.1% among adults with one year and five years of follow-up, respectively. It took 2.4 years on average for adults to receive vaccination after initial diagnosis. Adults ages 50-64, 35-49 (relative to 19-34) or receiving influenza vaccination were more likely to receive pneumococcal vaccinations. Adults with HIV/AIDS were more likely and those with other conditions were less likely to be vaccinated than those with diabetes. Adults being diagnosed by other providers were less likely to be vaccinated than those diagnosed by primary care providers. Vaccination rate varied largely across MSAs, ranging from 0.0% (Ames, IA; Cheyenne, WY) to 34.0% (Ann Arbor, MI). CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal vaccination remains low and most adults with underlying conditions are unvaccinated. Insights into factors associated with vaccination, including regional variability, can help to increase pneumococcal vaccination.

Phenotype Algorithms for the Identification and Characterization of Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia in Real World Data: A Multinational Network Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) has been identified as a rare but serious adverse event associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we explored the pre-pandemic co-occurrence of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TWT) using 17 observational health data sources across the world. We applied multiple TWT definitions, estimated the background rate of TWT, characterized TWT patients, and explored the makeup of thrombosis types among TWT patients. METHODS: We conducted an international network retrospective cohort study using electronic health records and insurance claims data, estimating background rates of TWT amongst persons observed from 2017 to 2019. Following the principles of existing VITT clinical definitions, TWT was defined as patients with a diagnosis of embolic or thrombotic arterial or venous events and a diagnosis or measurement of thrombocytopenia within 7 days. Six TWT phenotypes were considered, which varied in the approach taken in defining thrombosis and thrombocytopenia in real world data. RESULTS: Overall TWT incidence rates ranged from 1.62 to 150.65 per 100,000 person-years. Substantial heterogeneity exists across data sources and by age, sex, and alternative TWT phenotypes. TWT patients were likely to be men of older age with various comorbidities. Among the thrombosis types, arterial thrombotic events were the most common. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that identifying VITT in observational data presents a substantial challenge, as implementing VITT case definitions based on the co-occurrence of TWT results in large and heterogeneous incidence rate and in a cohort of patints with baseline characteristics that are inconsistent with the VITT cases reported to date.