Breast induration and irradiated volume in the DBCG HYPO trial: The impact of age, smoking, and boost.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between irradiated breast volume and grade 2-3 breast induration three years after radiotherapy in the phase III Danish Breast Cancer Group HYPO trial randomizing patients ≥ 41 years to whole breast irradiation (WBI) with 40 Gy/15fr versus 50 Gy/25fr. METHODS: Treatment plans were available for all Danish patients. Associations between frequency of induration and irradiated volume, age, smoking status, and boost were assessed by logistic regression. A sequential boost was given to patients < 50 years or in case of a narrow (<2 mm) resection margin. RESULTS: RT plans from 1,333 patients were analyzed with 178 (13 %) having grade 2-3 induration. 1135 patients had only WBI. For this group, induration was correlated with irradiated breast volume for patients ≥ 65 years (n = 343, 10 %/22 % for small/large irradiated volumes, p = 0.005) but not for patients aged 50-64 years (n = 792, 11 % for both small and large volumes, p = 0.82). Smoking doubled the frequency irrespective of irradiated volume and age. All patients < 50 years (n = 156) had a boost. A volume effect was found for this group (5 %/21 % induration for small/large volume, p = 0.002). 42 patients ≥ 50 years had a boost and 14 (33 %) had grade 2-3 induration, however, with a p-value > 0.05 due to the few numbers of patients. CONCLUSION: A relationship between irradiated breast volume and 3-year frequency of breast induration was found for patients ≥ 65 years, whilst not for patients aged 50-64 years. Smoking doubled the risk of induration irrespective of volume and age. A dose-induration relationship was seen for boost patients < 50 years.

ESHO 1-85. Hyperthermia as an adjuvant to radiation therapy in the treatment of locally advanced breast carcinoma. A randomized multicenter study by the European Society for Hyperthermic Oncology.

BACKGROUND: The ESHO protocol 1-85 is a multicenter randomized trial initiated by the European Society for Hyperthermic Oncology with the aim to investigate the value of hyperthermia (HT) as an adjuvant to radiotherapy (RT) in treatment of locally advanced breast carcinoma. The trial is one of the largest studies of hyperthermia in radiotherapy but has not been previously published. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between February 1987 and November 1993, 155 tumors in 151 patients were included. Tumors were stratified according to institution and size (T2-3/T4) and randomly assigned to receive radiotherapy alone (2 Gy/fx, 5 fx/wk) to a total dose of 65-70 Gy, incl. boost, or the same radiotherapy followed once weekly by hyperthermia (aimed for 43 °C for 60 min). Radiation was given with high voltage photons or electrons. The primary endpoint was persistent complete response (local control) in the treated area. RESULTS: A total of 146 tumors in 142 patients were evaluable, with a median observation time of 19 (range 1-134) months. Seventy tumors were randomized to RT alone and 76 to RT + HT. Size was T4 in 92, and T2-3 in 54 tumors, respectively. The compliance to RT was good with all but 4 patients fulfilling the planned RT treatment. The tolerance to HT was fair, but associated with moderate to severe pain and discomfort in 15 % of the treatments. In 84 % of the heated patients a least one heat treatment achieved the target temperature, but the temperature variation was large. Addition of heat did not significantly increase the acute nor late radiation reactions. Overall, the 5-year actuarial local failure rate was 57 %. Univariate analysis showed a significant influence of hyperthermia (RT alone 68 % versus RT + HT 50 %, p = 0.04, and T-size (T4 75 % versus T2-3 36 %, p < 0.01). A Cox multivariate analysis showed the same factors to be the only significant prognostic parameters: hyperthermia (HR: 0.61 [0.38-0.98], and small tumor strata (HR: 0.46 [0.26-0.92]. Consequentially, more patients given RT + HT (36 %) survived without disease (DFS), than after RT alone (19 %), p = 0.021) CONCLUSION: A randomized multicenter trial investigating the addition of a weekly hyperthermia treatment to radiotherapy of patients with locally advanced breast cancer significantly enhanced the 5-year tumor control and yielded more patients surviving free from cancer. The results substantiate the potential clinical benefit of hyperthermic oncology.

High-dose loco-regional pattern of failure after primary radiotherapy in p16 positive and negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma - A DAHANCA 19 study.

Introduction: Patients with failure after primary radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) have a poor prognosis. This study investigates pattern of failure after primary curatively intended IMRT in a randomized controlled trial in relation to HPV/p16 status. Material and methods: Patients with HNSCC of the oral cavity, oropharynx (OPSCC), hypopharynx or larynx were treated with primary curative IMRT (+/-cisplatin) and concomitant nimorazole between 2007 and 12. Of 608 patients, 151 had loco-regional failure within five years, from whom 130 pairs of scans (planning-CT and diagnostic failure scan) were collected and deformably co-registered. Point of origin-based pattern of failure analysis was conducted, including distance to CTV1 and GTV, and estimated dose coverage of the point of origin. Results: Of 130 patients with pairs of scans, 104 (80 %) had at least one local or regional failure site covered by 95 % of prescribed dose and 87 (67 %) of the failures had point of origin within the high-dose CTV (CTV1). Of failures from primary p16 + OPSCC, the majority of both mucosal (84 %) and nodal (61 %) failures were covered by curative doses. For p16- tumors (oral cavity, OPSCC p16neg, hypopharynx and larynx), 75 % of mucosal and 66 % of nodal failures were high-dose failures. Conclusion: Radioresistance is the primary cause of failure after RT for HNSCC irrespective of HPV/p16 status. Thus, focus on predictors for the response to RT is warranted to identify patients with higher risk of high-dose failure that might benefit from intensified treatment regimens.

Essential data variables for a minimum dataset for head and neck cancer trials and clinical research: HNCIG consensus recommendations and database.

The Head and Neck Cancer International Group (HNCIG) has undertaken an international modified Delphi process to reach consensus on the essential data variables to be included in a minimum database for HNC research. Endorsed by 19 research organisations representing 34 countries, these recommendations provide the framework to facilitate and harmonise data collection and sharing for HNC research. These variables have also been incorporated into a ready to use downloadable HNCIG minimum database, available from the HNCIG website.

Separating distant recurrences from second primaries in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas - A DAHANCA group analysis on paired tumor samples.

BACKGROUND: In head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC), there is no clinically available method to separate distant metastases (DMs) from SCC secondary primary tumors. The study aimed to assess the genetic relationship in paired tumor samples. METHODS: Patients with pairs of solid biopsies from the primary HNSCC and suspected DMs were identified (2007-2017). Targeted next-generation sequencing of 22 genes was applied, including TP53, supplemented with human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping. RESULTS: Of 55 pairs obtained, 33 were successfully analyzed. Distant biopsies included lung, liver, and bone. A genetic match was found in 23/33 (70%) patients, primarily with identical TP53 mutations or HPV genotypes. In 10/33 patients (30%), the genetic relationship was absent, all with lung involvement. In patients with no lung involvement, 8/8 had a match. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients with DMs in HNSCC lack a genetic relationship with the primary tumors. The risk of misclassification is most prominent for patients with lung involvement.

Tumor volume and cancer stem cell expression as prognostic markers for high-dose loco-regional failure in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma - A DAHANCA 19 study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reliable and accessible biomarkers for patients with Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) are warranted for biologically driven radiotherapy (RT). This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of putative cancer stem cell (CSC) markers, hypoxia, and tumor volume using loco-regional high-dose failure (HDF) as endpoint. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tumor tissue was retrieved from patients treated with primary chemo-(C-)RT and nimorazole for HNSCC in the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Study Group (DAHANCA) 19 study. Tumor volume, hypoxic classification, and expression of CSC markers CD44, SLC3A2, and MET were analyzed. For patients with eligible data on all parameters (n = 340), the risk of HDF following primary chemo-(C-)RT were analyzed by these biomarkers as a whole and stratified for p16-positive oropharynx (p16 + OPSCC) vs p16-negative (p16-) tumors (oral cavity, p16- oropharynx, hypopharynx and larynx). RESULTS: Higher risk of HDF was seen for patients with larger primary and nodal volume (>25 cm3, Hazard Ratio (HR): 3.00 [95 % CI: 1.73-5.18]), high SLC3A2 (HR: 2.99 [1.28-6.99]), CD44 (>30 % positive, HR: 2.29 [1.05-5.00]), and p16- tumors (HR: 2.53 [1.05-6.11]). p16- tumors had a higher CSC marker expression than p16 + OPSCC. The factors associated with the highest risk of HDF were larger volume (HR: 3.29 [1.79-6.04]) for p16- tumors (n = 178) and high SLC3A2 (HR: 6.19 [1.58-24.23]) for p16 + OPSCC (n = 162). CONCLUSION: Tumor volume, p16, and CSC markers are potential biomarkers for HDF for patients with HNSCC treated with (C-)RT. Lower expression of CSC in p16 + OPSCC may contribute to better tumor control.

Season of radiotherapy and outcomes of head & neck cancer patients in the MACH-NC & MARCH meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: A single institution retrospective study suggested that head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) during "dark" season (fall/winter) may have better outcomes than those treated during "light" season (spring/summer), possibly secondary to seasonal variations in cell cycle progression. We investigated the impact of season of RT in two large, multi-institutional, prospective datasets of randomized trials. METHODS: Individual patient data from the MACH-NC and MARCH meta-analyses were analyzed. Dark season was defined as mid-radiotherapy date during fall or winter and light the reverse, using equinoxes to separate the two periods. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) and secondary endpoint was locoregional failure (LRF). The effect of season was estimated with a Cox model stratified by trial and adjusted on sex, tumor site, stage, and treatment. Planned sensitivity analyses were performed on patients treated around solstices, who received "complete radiotherapy", patients treated with concomitant radio-chemotherapy and on trials performed in Northern countries. RESULTS: 11320 patients from 33 trials of MARCH and 6276 patients from 29 trials of MACH-NC were included. RT during dark season had no benefit on PFS in the MARCH (hazard ratio[HR]: 1.01 [95%CI 0.97;1.05],p=0.72) or MACH-NC dataset (HR:1.00 [95%CI 0.94;1.06],p=1.0. No difference in LRF was observed in the MARCH (HR:1.00 [95%CI 0.94;1.06,p=0.95) or MACH-NC dataset (HR:0.99 [95%CI 0.91; 1.07],p=0.77). Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. CONCLUSION: Season of RT had no impact on PFS or LRF in two large databases of HNSCC.

Evaluation of decentralised model-based selection of head and neck cancer patients for a proton treatment study. DAHANCA 35.

INTRODUCTION: Proton treatment can potentially spare patients with H&N cancer for substantial treatment-related toxicities. The current study investigated the reproducibility of a decentralised model-based selection of patients for a proton treatment study when the selection plans were compared to the clinical treatment plans performed at the proton centre. METHODS: Sixty-three patients were selected for proton treatment in the six Danish Head and Neck Cancer (DAHANCA) centres. The patients were selected based on normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) estimated from local photon and proton treatment plans, which showed a ΔNTCP greater than 5%-point for either grade 2 + dysphagia or grade 2 + xerostomia at six months. The selection plans were compared to the clinical treatment plans performed at the proton centre. RESULTS: Of the 63 patients, 49 and 25 were selected based on an estimated benefit in risk of dysphagia and xerostomia, respectively. Eleven patients had a potential gain in both toxicities. The mean ΔNTCP changed from the local selection plan comparison to the clinical comparison from 6.9 to 5.3 %-points (p = 0.01) and 7.3 to 4.9 %-points (p = 0.03) for dysphagia and xerostomia, respectively. Volume differences in both CTV and OAR could add to the loss in ΔNTCP. 61 of the 63 clinical plans had a positive ΔNTCP, and 38 had a ΔNTCP of 5%-points for at least one of the two endpoints. CONCLUSION: A local treatment plan comparison can be used to select candidates for proton treatment. The local comparative proton plan overestimates the potential benefit of the clinical proton plan. Continuous quality assurance of the delineation procedures and planning is crucial in the subsequent randomised clinical trial setting.

In Vitro Characterization of the Bacteria-derived Hypoxia-selective Cytotoxin BE-43547.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Hypoxia-activated pro-drugs, such as TH-302, may kill hypoxic treatment-resistant tumor cells, but have failed in clinical trials. This may be related to variable levels of drug-activating reductases. Compounds such as bacteria-derived BE-43547, which target hypoxic cells independently of reductases, may be beneficial. This study characterized the in vitro potency and hypoxia selectivity of BE-43547 and TH-302. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tumor cells were exposed to different oxygenation levels in the presence/absence of drug, and survival was quantified using total cell number (BE-43547) or clonogenic survival (BE-43547 and TH-302) assays. Half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values and the hypoxia-cytotoxicity-ratio (HCR: normoxic IC50/hypoxic IC50) were determined from dose-response curves. Finally, both drugs were tested in spheroids exposed to 20% or 0% O2 for 24 h followed by assessment of clonogenic survival. RESULTS: BE-43547 was highly potent and displayed little inter-cell line variability. Strongly enhanced cytotoxicity was observed under oxygen-restricted conditions with HCR's of ~100 and ~20 after 24 h of treatment with 0 or 0.5% O2, respectively. Reducing treatment time somewhat reduced hypoxia selectivity. Hypoxia selectivity was observed regardless of whether the drug was added before or during the hypoxic challenge. TH-302 IC50 values varied 10-fold under oxic conditions, whereas those of the anoxic-to-normoxic HCR varied from 15 to 88. Both BE-43547 and TH-302 were unable to completely sterilize anoxic incubated spheroids. CONCLUSION: BE-43547 is highly hypoxia-selective, and unlike TH-302, displayed minimal variability between cell lines, suggesting that BE-43547 targets a fundamental feature/target that is only present, or of survival importance, during hypoxia. Spheroid experiments suggested inadequate tissue penetrability, which may be overcome by designing novel drug analogs.

HPV testing versus p16 immunohistochemistry in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma: results from the DAHANCA 19 study.

INTRODUCTION: The prognosis after primary (chemo-)radiotherapy for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is affected by Human Papillomavirus (HPV) status, with a better prognosis in HPV-positive OPSCC. HPV-status is routinely assessed by p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC), but additional HPV DNA testing is debated. Also, there are numerous HPV genotypes, which prognostic role may need clarification. The purpose of this study was: (1) to test a custom-made targeted HPV next generation sequencing (NGS) panel in OPSCC, (2) to determine correlation with p16 IHC, and (3) to assess the impact of HPV DNA testing on outcome in the prospectively randomized clinical trial DAHANCA 19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 271 patients with OPSCC treated with primary (chemo-)radiotherapy in the DAHANCA 19 trial. Of these, 199 (73%) were p16-positive. HPV-status was determined by targeted HPV next generation sequencing (NGS), using a custom-made HPV genotyping panel. RESULTS: HPV was detected in 194 tumor samples. p16 IHC and NGS HPV status were concordant in 265 (98%) of 271 patients, whereas we did not detect HPV DNA in 5 p16-positive tumors. HPV16 accounted for 169 of 194 HPV-positive cases (87%). HPV genotypes 18, 31, 33, 35, and 59 were also detected.Loco-regional failure and overall survival were similar whether patients were separated by p16 IHC, or HPV DNA status (p < 0.0001 for all) and did not depend on HPV genotype (p = 0.9 and p = 0.7). CONCLUSION: In the present study, HPV DNA testing or typing in a Danish OPSCC cohort did not add additional information to p16 IHC, the most widely used and accepted prognostic indicator.

Socioeconomic position and the pre-diagnostic interval among patients diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma - a population-based study from DAHANCA.

BACKGROUND: The socioeconomic differences in survival are pronounced for patients diagnosed with head and neck cancer; disease stage at diagnosis is suggested to be a main driver of this association. This nationwide, population-based study investigates socioeconomic differences in the pre-diagnostic interval and disease stage at diagnosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Information on patient-reported symptoms, symptom onset and disease-specific factors was obtained from the nationwide population-based Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) database for patients diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma between 2008 and 2019 in Denmark. Socioeconomic position (SEP) was measured by individual-level education, income and cohabitation status obtained from administrative registers. Socioeconomic differences in the interval from symptom onset to diagnosis were investigated in general linear models with 95% confidence intervals (CIs); overall and by subsite, symptom and comorbidity score. Consultation patterns prior to diagnosis were examined using methods for change-point detection. Associations with advanced-stage disease were estimated in logistic regression models. RESULTS: Patients with low, medium and high SEP had a similar interval from patient-reported symptom onset to diagnosis of 10 weeks. Although this interval varied according to primary symptom and anatomical subsite, no apparent socioeconomic differences were observed within these subgroups. Aligned with the patient-reported symptom onset, a distinct increase in consultation rates was observed at 9 weeks (95% CI [7.3; 10.7]) for patients with low SEP and 7 weeks (95% CI [4.8; 9.2]) for patients with high SEP, with overlapping CIs. Patients with low compared to high SEP had increased odds for advanced-stage glottic and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma. For the remaining subsites the association varied according to SEP-indicator and TNM-edition. CONCLUSION: The interval from symptom onset to diagnosis and consultation patterns were similar across SEP groups. Still, socioeconomic differences in stage at diagnosis were observed for some - but not all - subsites.

Consistency in contouring of organs at risk by artificial intelligence vs oncologists in head and neck cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: In the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) 35 trial, patients are selected for proton treatment based on simulated reductions of Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) for proton compared to photon treatment at the referring departments. After inclusion in the trial, immobilization, scanning, contouring and planning are repeated at the national proton centre. The new contours could result in reduced expected NTCP gain of the proton plan, resulting in a loss of validity in the selection process. The present study evaluates if contour consistency can be improved by having access to AI (Artificial Intelligence) based contours. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The 63 patients in the DAHANCA 35 pilot trial had a CT from the local DAHANCA centre and one from the proton centre. A nationally validated convolutional neural network, based on nnU-Net, was used to contour OARs on both scans for each patient. Using deformable image registration, local AI and oncologist contours were transferred to the proton centre scans for comparison. Consistency was calculated with the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Mean Surface Distance (MSD), comparing contours from AI to AI and oncologist to oncologist, respectively. Two NTCP models were applied to calculate NTCP for xerostomia and dysphagia. RESULTS: The AI contours showed significantly better consistency than the contours by oncologists. The median and interquartile range of DSC was 0.85 [0.78 - 0.90] and 0.68 [0.51 - 0.80] for AI and oncologist contours, respectively. The median and interquartile range of MSD was 0.9 mm [0.7 - 1.1] mm and 1.9 mm [1.5 - 2.6] mm for AI and oncologist contours, respectively. There was no significant difference in ΔNTCP. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that OAR contours made by the AI algorithm were more consistent than those made by oncologists. No significant impact on the ΔNTCP calculations could be discerned.

An experimental setup for proton irradiation of a murine leg model for radiobiological studies.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to introduce an experimental radiobiological setup used for in vivo irradiation of a mouse leg target in multiple positions along a proton beam path to investigate normal tissue- and tumor models with varying linear energy transfer (LET). We describe the dosimetric characterizations and an acute- and late-effect assay for normal tissue damage. METHODS: The experimental setup consists of a water phantom that allows the right hind leg of three to five mice to be irradiated at the same time. Absolute dosimetry using a thimble (Semiflex) and a plane parallel (Advanced Markus) ionization chamber and Monte Carlo simulations using Geant4 and SHIELD-HIT12A were applied for dosimetric validation of positioning along the spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) and at the distal edge and dose fall-off. The mice were irradiated in the center of the SOBP delivered by a pencil beam scanning system. The SOBP was 2.8 cm wide, centered at 6.9 cm depth, with planned physical single doses from 22 to 46 Gy. The biological endpoint was acute skin damage and radiation-induced late damage (RILD) assessed in the mouse leg. RESULTS: The dose-response curves illustrate the percentage of mice exhibiting acute skin damage, and at a later point, RILD as a function of physical doses (Gy). Each dose-response curve represents a specific severity score of each assay, demonstrating a higher ED50 (50% responders) as the score increases. Moreover, the results reveal the reversible nature of acute skin damage as a function of time and the irreversible nature of RILD as time progresses. CONCLUSIONS: We want to encourage researchers to report all experimental details of their radiobiological setups, including experimental protocols and model descriptions, to facilitate transparency and reproducibility. Based on this study, more experiments are being performed to explore all possibilities this radiobiological experimental setup permits.

Prognostic biomarkers for the response to the radiosensitizer nimorazole combined with RCTx: a pre-clinical trial in HNSCC xenografts.

BACKGROUND: Tumor hypoxia is associated with resistance to radiotherapy and chemotherapy. In head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), nimorazole, an oxygen mimic, combined with radiotherapy (RT) enabled to improve loco-regional control (LRC) in some patients with hypoxic tumors but it is unknown whether this holds also for radiochemotherapy (RCTx). Here, we investigated the impact of nimorazole combined with RCTx in HNSCC xenografts and explored molecular biomarkers for its targeted use. METHODS: Irradiations were performed with 30 fractions in 6 weeks combined with weekly cisplatin. Nimorazole was applied before each fraction, beginning with the first or after ten fractions. Effect of RCTx with or without addition of nimorazole was quantified as permanent local control after irradiation. For histological evaluation and targeted gene expression analysis, tumors were excised untreated or after ten fractions. Using quantitative image analysis, micromilieu parameters were determined. RESULTS: Nimorazole combined with RCTx significantly improved permanent local control in two tumor models, and showed a potential improvement in two additional models. In these four models, pimonidazole hypoxic volume (pHV) was significantly reduced after ten fractions of RCTx alone. Our results suggest that nimorazole combined with RCTx might improve TCR compared to RCTx alone if hypoxia is decreased during the course of RCTx but further experiments are warranted to verify this association. Differential gene expression analysis revealed 12 genes as potential for RCTx response. When evaluated in patients with HNSCC who were treated with primary RCTx, these genes were predictive for LRC. CONCLUSIONS: Nimorazole combined with RCTx improved local tumor control in some but not in all HNSCC xenografts. We identified prognostic biomarkers with the potential for translation to patients with HNSCC.

The influence of tumor volume on the risk of distant metastases in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Distant metastases (DM) in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) are in most circumstances non-curable. The TNM staging system is insufficient to predict the risk of DM. This study investigates if the DM risk can be predicted using a multivariate model including pre-treatment total tumor volume for both p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and all other sites (other HNSCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study includes patients with localized pharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinomas treated with primary radiotherapy from 2008-2017 from three head and neck cancer centers. Patients were identified in the Danish Head and Neck Cancer (DAHANCA) database. Total (nodal and primary) tumor volume (Gross Tumor Volume, GTV) was extracted from local treatment planning systems. The GTV was grouped by volume (cm3) in four intervals and included in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression controlled for pre-selected clinical values incl. stage. RESULTS: The study includes 2,865 patients, of which 321 (11 %) had DM post-treatment. The risk of DM was assessed in a multivariate model based on 2,751 patients (p16-positive OPSCC: 1,032; and other HNSCC: 1,719). There was a significant association between GTV and the risk of DM, and in tumor volumes ≥ 50 cm3 hazard ratios of 7.6 (2.5-23.4) for p16-positive OPSCC and 4.1 (2.3-7.2) in other HNSCC were observed. CONCLUSION: Tumor volume is an independent risk factor for DM. The addition of total tumor volume to a predictive model is important to identify subgroups of HNSCC patients at high risk of DM.