A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence Models for Time-to-Event Outcome Applied in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

Artificial intelligence (AI) based predictive models for early detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are increasingly being utilised. However, AI based risk prediction models that account for right-censored data have been overlooked. This systematic review (PROSPERO protocol CRD42023492655) includes 33 studies that utilised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for survival outcome in CVD prediction. We provided details on the employed ML and DL models, eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques, and type of included variables, with a focus on social determinants of health (SDoH) and gender-stratification. Approximately half of the studies were published in 2023 with the majority from the United States. Random Survival Forest (RSF), Survival Gradient Boosting models, and Penalised Cox models were the most frequently employed ML models. DeepSurv was the most frequently employed DL model. DL models were better at predicting CVD outcomes than ML models. Permutation-based feature importance and Shapley values were the most utilised XAI methods for explaining AI models. Moreover, only one in five studies performed gender-stratification analysis and very few incorporate the wide range of SDoH factors in their prediction model. In conclusion, the evidence indicates that RSF and DeepSurv models are currently the optimal models for predicting CVD outcomes. This study also highlights the better predictive ability of DL survival models, compared to ML models. Future research should ensure the appropriate interpretation of AI models, accounting for SDoH, and gender stratification, as gender plays a significant role in CVD occurrence.

Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method.

BACKGROUND: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD. RESULTS: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults.

Gender-specific analysis of social connection patterns and risk of dementia in community-dwelling older people.

INTRODUCTION: Poor social connection is considered a risk factor for dementia. Since socializing behaviors may cluster together or act compensatorily, we aimed to investigate social connection patterns and their association with dementia, for men and women separately. METHODS: A total of 12,896 community-dwelling older adults (mean ± SD age: 75.2 ± 4.3 years, 54% women) without major cognitive impairment were included. Latent class analysis was conducted using 24 baseline social connection indicators. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between latent classes and incident dementia over 12 (median: 8.4) years follow-up. RESULTS: Three distinct classes were identified in both genders: strong social connections with an intermediate friend-relative network (Class 1: men, 43.8%; women, 37.9%), weak social connections (Class 2: men, 29.6%; women, 27.4%), and strong social connections with a larger friend-relative network (Class 3: men, 26.6%; women, 34.7%). Compared to Class 1, men in Class 2 (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.08-1.77) and women in Class 3 (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.60) had an increased risk of dementia. DISCUSSION: Dementia risk varies with different social connection patterns among older men and women. HIGHLIGHTS: Three distinct social connection patterns were identified based on 24 indicators. These patterns were related to dementia risk differently in men and women. In men, a weak social connection pattern was associated with a higher dementia risk. In women, a strong social connection with a relatively larger friend-relative network was associated with a greater dementia risk.

Does diet quality moderate the long-term effects of discrete but extreme PM2.5 exposure on respiratory symptoms? A study of the Hazelwood coalmine fire.

In 2014, a fire at an open cut coalmine in regional Victoria, Australia burned for 6 weeks. Residents of the nearby town of Morwell were exposed to smoke, which included high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We investigated whether the long-term effects of PM2.5 on respiratory health were moderated by diet quality. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data collected 8.5 years after the mine fire from 282 residents of Morwell and 166 residents from the nearby unexposed town of Sale. Primary outcomes were respiratory symptoms. Exposure was coalmine fire-related PM2.5 and diet quality was assessed as Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) derived using the Australian Eating Survey (AES). The moderating effect of diet quality on respiratory outcomes associated with PM2.5 was assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Diet quality was poor in this sample, with 60% in the lowest category of overall diet quality. Overall diet quality and fruit and vegetable quality significantly attenuated the association between PM2.5 and prevalence of chronic cough and phlegm. Sauce/condiment intake was associated with a greater effect of PM2.5 on COPD prevalence. No other moderating effects were significant. The moderating effects of overall diet quality and vegetable and fruit intake aligned with a priori hypotheses, suggesting potential protective benefits. While more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, improving diets, especially fruit and vegetable intake, may provide some protection against the effects of smoke exposure from fire events.

Social Activities and Risk of Dementia in Community-Dwelling Older People: Gender-Specific Findings From a Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the gender-specific associations between a wide range of social activities and dementia risk. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted involving community-dwelling older Australians (≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment at enrolment. During the first year of enrolment, we assessed 25 self-reported social activities covering various aspects, including support from relatives and friends, community participation, social interactions with surroundings, and loneliness. Dementia diagnosis followed DSM-IV criteria, adjudicated by an international expert panel. To estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between social activities and dementia, we performed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, educational attainment, baseline global cognition, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Among 9,936 participants who completed all social activity questionnaires (median [IQR] age: 73.4 [71.6-77.1] years; 47.4% men), dementia was diagnosed in 3.8% of men (n = 181/4,705) and 2.6% of women (n = 138/5,231) over a median 6.4 years (IQR: 5.3-7.6, range: 0.2-10.1) follow-up. Gender-specific relationships emerged: caregiving for a person with illness/disability in women (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99), and having ≥9 relatives feeling close to call for help in men (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.96; reference <9 relatives) were associated with reduced dementia risk. Unexpectedly, in women, having ≥5 friends with whom they felt comfortable discussing private matters were associated with a greater dementia risk (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.10-2.59; reference ≤2 friends). Imputed models further identified that babysitting/childminding was associated with lower dementia risk in men (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56-0.99). No other social activities showed significant associations with dementia. DISCUSSION: This study provides evidence of social activities influencing dementia risk. Further investigations are required to uncover the mechanisms driving these observed relationships.

Association of serum phosphate, calcium and alkaline phosphatase with risk of incident fractures in healthy older adults.

BACKGROUND: Aging increases fracture risk through bone loss and microarchitecture deterioration due to an age-related imbalance in bone resorption and formation during bone remodelling. We examined the associations between levels of phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase, and fracture risk in initially-healthy older individuals. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial recruited 16,703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2,411 US participants aged ≥65 years. Analyses were conducted on ASPREE-Fracture substudy participants from Australia with serum calcium, phosphate, and alkaline phosphatase measurement. Fracture data were collected post-randomization. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase were analysed in deciles (D1-D10), with deciles 4-7 (31-70%) as the reference category. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to identify nonlinear associations. RESULTS: Of the 9915 participants, 907 (9·2%) persons had incident fractures recorded over 3·9 (SD 1·4) years. In the fully adjusted model, males in the top decile (D10) of phosphate had 78% higher risk of incident fracture (HR 1·78, 95% CI 1·25-2·54). No such association was observed for females (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·83-1·44). The population attributable fraction in men within the D10 phosphate category is 6·9%. CONCLUSION: This result confirms that, high-normal serum phosphate levels are associated with increased fracture risk in older men.

Symptoms of depression and risk of emergency department visits among people aged 70 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Older people experiencing depression and anxiety have higher rates of health service utilisation than others, but little is known about whether these influence their seeking of emergency care. The aim was to examine the associations between symptoms of depression and the use of emergency health care, in an Australian context, among a population of people aged 70 years and over initially free of cardiovascular disease, dementia or major physical disability. METHODS: We undertook secondary analyses of data from a large cohort of community-dwelling Australians aged [Formula: see text]70 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the association of symptoms of depression (measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale 10 question version, CESD at baseline) with subsequent episodes of emergency care, adjusting for physical and social factors of clinical interest. Marginal adjusted odds ratios were calculated from the logistic regression. RESULTS: Data were available for 10,837 Australian participants aged at least 70 years. In a follow-up assessment three years after the baseline assessment, 17.6% of people self-reported an episode of emergency care (attended an ED of called an emergency ambulance) in the last 12 months. Use of emergency healthcare was similar for men and women (17.8% vs. 17.4% p = 0.61). A score above the cut-off on the CESD at baseline was associated with greater use of emergency health care (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.11,1.64). When modelled separately, there was a greater association between a score above the cut-off on the CESD and emergency healthcare for women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: This study is unique in demonstrating how depressive symptoms among healthy older persons are associated with subsequent increased use of emergency healthcare. Improved understanding and monitoring of mental health in primary care is essential to undertake effective healthcare planning including prevention of needing emergency care.

The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank: Methodology and participant characteristics.

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health.

Associations of body habitus and its changes with incident dementia in older adults.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), as well as their short- and long-term changes over time, with incident dementia in older individuals. METHODS: Data came from 18,837 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ years from Australia and the United States, who were relatively healthy without major cognitive impairment at enrolment. Anthropometric measures were prospectively assessed at baseline, as well as change and variability from baseline to year two (three time-points). In a subgroup (n = 11,176), self-reported weight at age 18 and 70+ years was investigated. Dementia cases satisfied DSM-IV criteria. Cox regression was used to examine the associations between anthropometric measures and incident risk of dementia. RESULTS: Compared to normal weight, an overweight (HR: 0.67, 95%CI: 0.57-0.79, p < 0.001) or obese BMI (HR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.60-0.89, p = 0.002), or a larger WC (elevated, HR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.58-0.86, p < 0.001; highly elevated, HR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.55-0.78, p < 0.001; relative to low) at baseline was associated with lower dementia risk. In contrast, substantial increases in BMI (>5%) over 2 years after baseline were associated with higher dementia risk (HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.17-1.91, p = 0.001). Increased dementia risk was also seen with an underweight BMI at baseline and a 2-year BMI decrease (>5%), but these associations appeared only in the first 4 years of follow-up. Compared to normal weight at both age 18 and 70+ years, being obese at both times was associated with increased dementia risk (HR: 2.27, 95%CI: 1.22-4.24, p = 0.01), while obesity only at age 70+ years was associated with decreased risk (HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.51-0.95, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that long-term obesity and weight gain in later life may be risk factors for dementia. Being underweight or having substantial weight loss in old age may be early markers of pre-clinical dementia.

Diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons.

BACKGROUND: The validity of findings from epidemiological studies using self-report of ophthalmic conditions depends on several factors. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration (AMD) among older Australians enroled in a primary prevention clinical trial and compared diagnostic accuracy between demographic subgroups. METHODS: At baseline (2010-2015), Australian sub-study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, underwent bilateral two-field, 45° non-mydriatic colour retinal photography. Beckman classification of any-stage AMD was used as the reference standard diagnosis. Participants were asked whether a doctor had ever diagnosed them with "macular degeneration" (the index test) via a paper-based questionnaire as part of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) within the first year of enrolment. RESULTS: In total, 4193 participants were included (aged 70-92 years, 50.8% female). Of those, 262 (6.3%) reported having AMD and 92 (2.2%) were unsure. Retinal grading detected 2592 (61.8%) with no AMD, 867 (20.7%) with early, 686 (16.4%) with intermediate and 48 (1.1%) with late AMD (n = 1601 with any-stage AMD, 38.2%). Self-reported AMD had 11.4% sensitivity (95% CI 9.9-13.1) and 96.9% specificity (95% CI 96.2-97.6) for any-stage AMD, with 69.8% and 63.9% positive and negative predictive values. Sensitivity was higher among participants with late-stage AMD (87.5%), older participants (26.8%), and those with poorer vision (41.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Although most participants with late-stage AMD were aware of having AMD, the majority with early and intermediate AMD were not. Therefore, findings from studies that rely on disease self-report should be interpreted with caution.

Daily low-dose aspirin and incident type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling healthy older adults: a post-hoc analysis of efficacy and safety in the ASPREE randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study investigated the randomised treatment effect of low-dose aspirin on incident type 2 diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations among older adults. METHODS: ASPREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral low-dose aspirin. The study population included community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for US minority ethnic groups) in the USA and Australia who were free of cardiovascular disease, independence-limiting physical disability, or dementia. For the post-hoc analysis, we excluded participants with diabetes at baseline or with incomplete or missing incident diabetes data during follow-up. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral 100 mg daily enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, commencement of glucose-lowering medication, or a FPG concentration of 7·0 mmol/L or more assessed at annual follow-up visits among participants with no diabetes at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models and mixed-model repeated measures to assess the effect of aspirin on incident diabetes and FPG concentrations in the intention-to-treat population. We assessed major bleeding in participants who had taken at least one dose of study medication. FINDINGS: Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, a total of 16 209 participants were included (8086 [49·9%] randomly assigned to aspirin and 8123 [50·1%] randomly assigned to placebo). During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 995 (in 6·1% individuals) incident cases of type 2 diabetes were recorded (459 in the aspirin group and 536 in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 15% reduction in risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·75 to 0·97]; p=0·013) and a slower rate of increase in FPG concentration at year 5 (between-group difference estimate -0·048 mmol/L [95% CI -0·079 to -0·018]; p=0·0017). Major bleeding (major gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and clinically significant bleeding at other sites) occurred in 510 (3·2%) of 16 104 participants (300 [3·7%] in the aspirin group and 210 [2·6%] in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 44% increase in risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·21 to 1·72]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Aspirin treatment reduced the incidence of type 2 diabetes and slowed the increase in FPG concentration but increased major bleeding among community-dwelling older adults. Given the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among older adults, the potential for anti-inflammatory agents such as aspirin to prevent type 2 diabetes or improve glucose levels warrants further study with a comprehensive assessment of all potential safety events of interest. FUNDING: US National Institute on Aging, US National Cancer Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Monash University, and the Victorian Cancer Agency.

A low-carbohydrate diet in place of SGLT2i therapy in a patient with diabetic cardiomyopathy.

Summary: In patients with diabetes mellitus, the toxic milieu caused by abnormal glucose and free fatty acid handling can lead to heart failure (HF). Referred to as diabetic cardiomyopathy (DMCM), this syndrome often exists in the absence of conventional risk factors for HF such as history of myocardial infarction or hypertension. Low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) have recently been endorsed as an efficacious therapeutic dietary approach to prevent and reverse cardiometabolic disease including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). LCDs improve systemic insulin resistance (IR), reverses cardiac remodelling in a rodent model and downregulates the expression of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) receptors in the kidney. It is therefore conceivable that a lifestyle approach such as adopting an LCD can be offered to patients with DMCM. The reported case is that of a 45-year-old man with a 15-year history of non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy, T2DM and obesity. The patient volunteered to engage in a 16-week low-carbohydrate dietary intervention trial and then self-selected to remain on this diet for 1 year. The whole-food LCD was based on simple 'traffic light' style food lists and not designed to restrict calories, protein, fat or salt. After 1 year, the patient had lost 39 kg and his cardiometabolic markers had significantly improved. LCDs present a potentially beneficial approach for patients with DMCM and could be considered as a lifestyle intervention before SGLT2i therapy is commenced. Learning points: Diabetic cardiomyopathy (DMCM) is a syndrome precipitated mainly by the detrimental effects of glucose metabolism disorders such as insulin resistance and diabetes. Low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) mimic many effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i). LCDs are a dietary pattern which can have significant and beneficial effects on metabolic and anthropometric markers in patients with DMCM. LCDs and SGLT2i therapy could be combined and may achieve better clinical outcomes for patients with DMCM. Combination therapy may be carried out under close supervision as the real risk for diabetic ketoacidosis remains.

Effects of a low carbohydrate diet on heart failure symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy: A randomised controlled trial pilot study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure, insulin resistance and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus coexist in the syndrome that is diabetic cardiomyopathy. Patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy experience high symptom burden and poor quality of life. We tested the hypothesis that a low carbohydrate diet improves heart failure symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a 16-week randomised controlled pilot trial comparing the effects of a low carbohydrate diet (LC) to usual care (UC) in 17 adult patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy. New York Heart Association classification, weight, thirst distress and quality of life scores as well as blood pressure and biochemical data were assessed at baseline and at 16 weeks. Thirteen (n = 8 LC; n = 5 UC) patients completed the trial. The low carbohydrate diet induced significant weight loss in completers (p = 0.004). There was a large between-group difference in systolic blood pressure at the end of the study (Hedges's g 0.99[-014,2.08]). There were no significant differences in thirst or quality of life between groups. CONCLUSION: This is the first clinical trial utilising the low carbohydrate dietary approach in patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy in an outpatient setting. A low carbohydrate diet can lead to significant weight loss in patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy. Future clinical trials with larger samples and that focus on fluid and sodium requirements of patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy who engage in a low carbohydrate diet are warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR): ACTRN12620001278921. DATE OF REGISTRATION: 26th November 2020.

Association of a healthy lifestyle with mortality in older people.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours such as smoking, high alcohol consumption, poor diet or low physical activity are associated with morbidity and mortality. Public health guidelines provide recommendations for adherence to these four factors, however, their relationship to the health of older people is less certain. METHODS: The study involved 11,340 Australian participants (median age 7.39 [Interquartile Range (IQR) 71.7, 77.3]) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study, followed for a median of 6.8 years (IQR: 5.7, 7.9). We investigated whether a point-based lifestyle score based on adherence to guidelines for a healthy diet, physical activity, non-smoking and moderate alcohol consumption was associated with subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: In multivariable adjusted models, compared to those in the unfavourable lifestyle group, individuals in the moderate lifestyle group (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.73 [95% CI 0.61, 0.88]) and favourable lifestyle group (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.56, 0.83]) had lower risk of all-cause mortality. A similar pattern was observed for cardiovascular related mortality and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular related mortality. There was no association of lifestyle with cancer-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of initially healthy older people, reported adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with reduced risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Adherence to all four lifestyle factors resulted in the strongest protection.

The association between adverse events in later life and mortality in older individuals.

Background: Stress can have adverse impacts on health, particularly when it is chronic or resulting from major adverse events. Our study investigated whether relatively common adverse events in older individuals were associated with an increased risk of death, as well as cause-specific death and potential gender differences. Methods: Participants were 12896 community-dwelling Australians aged ≥70 years at enrolment into the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) study and without known life-limiting disease. A questionnaire administered in the year after enrolment, collected information on ten adverse events experienced in the past year. Mortality status was verified by multiple sources including health records and the National Death Index across a maximum of 10 years. Underlying causes of death were determined using clinical information by two adjudicators. Cox-proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate mortality risk. Results: Two of the ten adverse events were associated with an increased risk of mortality in fully adjusted models. A 69% increased risk of mortality was observed in participants who reported their spouse/partner had recently died (95% CI: 1.19-2.39, P < 0.01). Cancer-related but not cardiovascular deaths also increased. Participants with a seriously ill spouse/partner also had a 23% increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.02-1.48, P = 0.03). There was a tendency for these associations to be stronger among men than women. Limitations: Perceived stress and cortisol were not measured, thus limiting our understanding of the psychological and physiological impacts of adverse events. Conclusions: Experiencing adverse events in later-life, especially the death of a spouse/partner, may be a risk factor for earlier mortality. These findings may increase public health awareness and better inform initiatives for particular groups, including bereaved men.

Considering equity and cost-effectiveness in assessing a parenting intervention to promote early childhood development in rural Vietnam.

Considering equity in early childhood development (ECD) is important to ensure healthy development for every child. Equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis can further guide decision makers to maximize outcomes with limited resources while promoting equity. This cost-effectiveness study aimed to examine the equity impacts of a multicomponent ECD intervention in rural Vietnam. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with a 30-month time horizon from the service provider and household perspectives with equity considerations. Data were from a cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing the intervention with the local standard of care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per child cognitive development score gained were estimated by household wealth quintile and maternal education level, adjusted for cluster effects and baseline characteristics such as maternal parity and age. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs, and non-parametric cluster bootstrapping was used to examine uncertainty around ICERs. Children in the intervention had higher cognitive development scores than those in the control arm across all subgroups. Based on intervention recurrent cost, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children from the poorest quintile (-US$6) compared to those from the richest quintile (US$16). Similarly, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children whose mothers had the lowest education level (-US$0.02) than those with mothers who had the highest education level (US$7). Even though our findings should be interpreted with caution due to the insufficient study power, the findings suggest that the intervention could promote equity while improving child cognitive development with greater cost-effectiveness in disadvantaged groups.

Exploring the Barriers and Enablers to Implementing a 16-Week Low-Carbohydrate Diet for Patients With Diabetic Cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Cardiac dysfunction in patients with diabetes, referred to as diabetic cardiomyopathy, is primarily precipitated by dysregulations in glucose and lipid metabolism. Diet and lifestyle changes are considered crucial for successful heart failure and diabetes management and are often difficult to achieve. Low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) have gained popularity for the management of metabolic diseases. Although quantitative research in this field is evolving, little is known about the personal experience of patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy on specific diets. The aim of this qualitative study was to identify enablers and barriers of patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy who engage in an LCD. It further explored patients' perception of dietary education and dietary support received while in hospital. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants who previously consented to a 16-week LCD trial were invited to share their experiences. Nine patients agreed to be interviewed. Semistructured interviews and a focus group interview were conducted, which were transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed by using the 6-step approach for thematic analysis. Four themes were identified: (1) nutrition literacy (2) disease-related health benefits, (3) balancing commitments, and (4) availability of resources and support. CONCLUSION: Improvements in disease-related symptoms acted as strong enablers to engage in an LCD. Barriers such as access to resources and time constraints were identified. These challenges may be overcome with efficient communication and ongoing dietary support. More research exploring the experience of patients with diabetic cardiomyopathy on an LCD are warranted.

Adverse events in older adults and the risk of dementia and cognitive decline.

Background: Increasing evidence suggests that stress could be a risk factor for dementia but this might vary by gender. This study investigated whether adverse life events were associated with cognitive decline and dementia in later-life, separately in men and women. Methods: Participants were 12,789 community-dwelling Australians aged ≥ 70 years. Ten common adverse events in later-life were self-reported. Cognitive decline was defined as a 1.5 SD decline from participants' baseline score in tests of global cognition, psychomotor speed, episodic memory, and executive functioning, which were assessed regularly over a maximum of 10.3 years. Dementia was diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria. Results: An increased risk of dementia was observed in participants who experienced the death of a spouse/partner (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.17 - 2.52) and for individuals who experienced major financial problems (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.05 - 2.23). The latter also increased the risk of cognitive decline in men specifically (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.86). In contrast, some events for women were associated with a reduced risk of dementia (e.g. close family or friends lost their job/retired (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.95)). Limitations: Events including major money problems may result from prodromal dementia symptoms, thus reverse causation needs to be considered. Conclusions: Adverse life events may influence dementia risk in older adults, but associations vary depending on the nature of the event, and across genders. These findings support the need for early interventions in older people who have experienced adversities, particularly for the death of a loved one.

Socio-Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Characteristics of Early and Later Weight Status in Older Adults: Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Trial and ALSOP Sub-Study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics associated with self-reported weight status in early (age 18 years) and late (age ≥ 70 years) adulthood. METHODS: The number of participants was 11,288, who were relatively healthy community-dwelling Australian adults aged ≥70 years (mean age 75.1 ± 4.2 years) in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. Self-reported weight at the study baseline (age ≥ 70 years) and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected. Height measured at baseline was used to calculate the BMI at both time points. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' weight status groups: healthy weight (at both age 18 year and ≥70 years), overweight (at either or both times), non-obese (age 18 year) to obesity (age ≥70 years), obesity (age 18 years) to non-obese (age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (at age 18 years and ≥70 years). RESULTS: Participants who experienced obesity in early and/or late adulthood were at a higher risk of adverse clinical characteristics. Obesity in late adulthood (regardless of early adulthood weight status) was associated with high proportions of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, whereas obesity in early adulthood (regardless of late adulthood weight status) was associated with lower cognitive scores (on all four measures). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Healthy or overweight weight status in early and later adulthood was associated with more favourable socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical measures. Obesity in early adulthood was associated with lower cognitive function in later adulthood, whereas obesity in later adulthood was associated with hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Lifestyle Enrichment in Later Life and Its Association With Dementia Risk.

Importance: Lifestyles enriched with socially and mentally stimulating activities in older age may help build cognitive reserve and reduce dementia risk. Objective: To investigate the association of leisure activities and social networks with dementia risk among older individuals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal prospective cohort study used population-based data from the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) for March 1, 2010, to November 30, 2020. Community-dwelling individuals in Australia aged 70 years or older who were generally healthy and without major cognitive impairment at enrollment were recruited to the ALSOP study between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. Data were analyzed from December 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023. Exposures: A total of 19 measures of leisure activities and social networks assessed at baseline were classified using exploratory factor analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dementia was adjudicated by an international expert panel according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition) criteria. Cox proportional hazards regression examined dementia risk over 10 years, adjusting for education, socioeconomic status, and a range of health-related factors. Results: This study included 10 318 participants. Their median age was 73.8 (IQR, 71.6-77.2) years at baseline, more than half (52.6%) were women, and most self-identified as White (98.0%). In adusted analyses, more frequent engagement in adult literacy activities (eg, writing letters or journaling, using a computer, and taking education classes) and in active mental activities (eg, playing games, cards, or chess and doing crosswords or puzzles) was associated with an 11.0% (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.89 [95% CI, 0.85-0.93]) and a 9.0% (AHR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]) lower risk of dementia, respectively. To a lesser extent, engagement in creative artistic activities (craftwork, woodwork, or metalwork and painting or drawing) (AHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]) and in passive mental activities (reading books, newspapers, or magazines; watching television; and listening to music or the radio) (AHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.86-0.99]) was also associated with reduced dementia risk. In contrast, interpersonal networks, social activities, and external outings were not associated with dementia risk in this sample. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that engagement in adult literacy, creative art, and active and passive mental activities may help reduce dementia risk in late life. In addition, these findings may guide policies for geriatric care and interventions targeting dementia prevention for older adults.