The FLURESP European commission project: cost-effectiveness assessment of ten public health measures against influenza in Italy: is there an interest in COVID-19 pandemic?

BACKGROUND: The FLURESP project is a public health research funded by the European Commission, with the objective to design a methodological framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of existing public health measures against human influenza pandemics. A dataset has been specifically collected in the frame of the Italian health system. As most of interventions against human influenza are relavant against other respiratory diseases pandemics, potential interests in COVID-19 are discussed. METHODS: Ten public health measures against human influenza pandemics pandemic were selected to be also relevant to other respiratory virus pandemics such as COVID 19: individual (hand washing, using masks), border control (quarantine, fever screening, border closure), community infection (school closure, class dismissal, social distancing, limitation of public transport), reduction of secondary infections (implementation of antibiotic therapy guidelines), pneumococcal vaccination for at-risk people, development of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity, implementation of life support equipments in ICU, screening interventions, vaccination programs targeting health professional and targeting general population. RESULTS: Using mortality reduction as effectiveness criteria, the most cost-effective strategies are "reduction of secondary infections" and "implementation of life support equipment in ICU". The least cost-effective option whatever the level of pandemic events are screening interventions and mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: A number of intervention strategies against human influenza pandemics appears relevant against every respiratory virus, including the COVID-19 event. Measures against pandemics should be considered according to their expected effectiveness but also their costs for the society because they impose substantial burden to the population, confirming the interest of considering cost-effectiveness of public health measures to enlighten decision making.

Understanding the Impact of Resistance to Influenza Antivirals.

Influenza poses a significant burden on society and health care systems. Although antivirals are an integral tool in effective influenza management, the potential for the emergence of antiviral-resistant viruses can lead to uncertainty and hesitation among front-line prescribers and policy makers. Here, we provide an overview of influenza antiviral resistance in context, exploring the key concepts underlying its development and clinical impact. Due to the acute nature of influenza in immunocompetent patients, resistant viruses that develop during antiviral treatment of a single patient ("treatment-emergent resistance") are usually cleared in a relatively short time, with no impact on future antiviral efficacy. In addition, although available data are limited by small numbers of patients, they show that antiviral treatment still provides clinical benefit to the patient within whom resistance emerges. In contrast, the sustained community transmission of resistant variants in the absence of treatment ("acquired resistance") is of greater concern and can potentially render front-line antivirals ineffective. Importantly, however, resistant viruses are usually associated with reduced fitness such that their widespread transmission is relatively rare. Influenza antivirals are an essential part of effective influenza management due to their ability to reduce the risk of complications and death in infected patients. Although antiviral resistance should be taken seriously and requires continuous careful monitoring, it is not comparable to antibiotic resistance in bacteria, which can become permanent and widespread, with far-reaching medical consequences. The benefits of antiviral treatment far outweigh concerns of potential resistance, which in the vast majority of cases does not have a significant clinical impact.

Vaccines from the Spanish Influenza as a firm foundation for new developments.

In 1914, the concept of a prophylactic vaccine, administered to a person before the disease had been contracted, was still controversial. Nevertheless, Almroth Wright tested new pneumococcus vaccines in South Africa, where the incidence of bacterial pneumonia was high amongst workers in the gold mines. He established the use of clinical trials, using around ten thousand workers, both in vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. The two groups were not matched to modern standards. Also, of course, those workers in the control unvaccinated group could not be protected: but some considered a prophylactic vaccine would exacerbate the disease. The vaccines were manufactured to contain a range of pneumococci from different clinical samples, in a serious attempt to match the microbes in the vaccine to the field bacteria. Deaths were averted by the vaccine; and side effects were noted to be minimal. Reexamination of pathology samples from the Spanish Influenza Pandemic showed quite clearly the contribution of pneumococci and streptococci to the mortality of over fifty million people in 1918-1919. The microbe causing this Pandemic was isolated in 1933, and was shown to be a true virus; this finding initiated a huge expanse and interest in influenza virus vaccines, both killed and live. A chance discovery allowed the purification of Influenza M and NP proteins then permitted the production of experimental vaccines. These vaccines were formulated to induce and B and/or T cell responses to the internal proteins. Several of these Universal Influenza Vaccines have been tested in quarantine, and have now reached Phase III trials in the community.

Cost-effectiveness of public health interventions against human influenza pandemics in France: a methodological contribution from the FLURESP European Commission project.

BACKGROUND: The FLURESP project is a public health project funded by the European Commission with the objective to design a methodological approach in order to compare the cost-effectiveness of existing public health measures against human influenza pandemics in four target countries: France, Italy, Poland and Romania. This article presents the results relevant to the French health system using a data set specifically collected for this purpose. METHODS: Eighteen public health interventions against human influenza pandemics were selected. Additionally, two public-health criteria were considered: 'achieving mortality reduction ≥40%' and 'achieving morbidity reduction ≥30%'. Costs and effectiveness data sources include existing reports, publications and expert opinions. Cost distributions were taken into account using a uniform distribution, according to the French health system. RESULTS: Using reduction of mortality as an effectiveness criterion, the most cost-effective options was 'implementation of new equipment of Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) equipment'. Targeting vaccination to health professionals appeared more cost-effective than vaccination programs targeting at risk populations. Concerning antiviral distribution programs, curative programs appeared more cost-effective than preventive programs. Using reduction of morbidity as effectiveness criterion, the most cost-effective option was 'implementation of new equipment ECMO'. Vaccination programs targeting the general population appeared more cost-effective than both vaccination programs of health professionals or at-risk populations. Curative antiviral programs appeared more cost-effective than preventive distribution programs, whatever the pandemic scenario. CONCLUSION: Intervention strategies against human influenza pandemics impose a substantial economic burden, suggesting a need to develop public-health cost-effectiveness assessments across countries.

A possible European origin of the Spanish influenza and the first attempts to reduce mortality to combat superinfecting bacteria: an opinion from a virologist and a military historian.

When we reconsider the virology and history of the Spanish Influenza Pandemic, the science of 2018 provides us with tools which did not exist at the time. Two such tools come to mind. The first lies in the field of 'gain of function' experiments. A potential pandemic virus, such as influenza A (H5N1), can be deliberately mutated in the laboratory in order to change its virulence and spreadability. Key mutations can then be identified. A second tool lies in phylogenetics, combined with molecular clock analysis. It shows that the 1918 pandemic virus first emerged in the years 1915-1916. We have revisited the literature published in Europe and the United States, and the notes left by physicians who lived at the time. In this, we have followed the words of the late Alfred Crosby: who wrote that "contemporary documentary evidence from qualified physicians" is the key to understanding where and how the first outbreaks occurred. In our view, the scientists working in Europe fulfill Crosby's requirement for contemporary evidence of origin. Elsewhere, Crosby also suggested that "the physicians of 1918 were participants in the greatest failure of medical science in the twentieth century". Ours is a different approach. We point to individual pathologists in the United States and in France, who strove to construct the first universal vaccines against influenza. Their efforts were not misdirected, because the ultimate cause of death in nearly all cases flowed from superinfections with respiratory bacteria.

Unanswered questions about the 1918 influenza pandemic: origin, pathology, and the virus itself.

The influenza epidemic of 1918 represented the greatest failure of medical science in the 20th century. Fortunately, research throughout subsequent years has been making amends. Some studies have applied RT-PCR to the tissue samples from that time, whereas others have reconstructed the pathogen in its virulent state. But the resurrection of the 1918 influenza virus leaves questions unanswered: although more virulent than contemporary H1N1 epidemic viruses in animal models, this increased virulence of the 1918 influenza virus is not sufficient to have been the sole cause of the high mortality rates recorded in humans during the epidemic. Thus, other hypotheses have been investigated. The immune history of the different age groups exposed at the time to the pandemic virus could be a factor, and the notion of original antigenic sin provides an explanation for the unusual pattern of deaths. The presence, or absence, of a cytokine storm in the lungs of young adults might also be involved. The time and location that the 1918 influenza pandemic first emerged from its avian reservoir is contentious, with arguments for China, Europe, and the USA, at various dates. Novel vaccines were tested during 1918, which are the precursors of the universal influenza vaccines that might offer protection in a future pandemic.

An Intranasal Proteosome-Adjuvanted Trivalent Influenza Vaccine Is Safe, Immunogenic & Efficacious in the Human Viral Influenza Challenge Model. Serum IgG & Mucosal IgA Are Important Correlates of Protection against Illness Associated with Infection.

INTRODUCTION: A Proteosome-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (P-TIV) administered intra-nasally was shown to be safe, well tolerated and immunogenic in both systemic and mucosal compartments, and effective at preventing illness associated with evidence of influenza infection. METHODS: In two separate studies using the human viral challenge model, subjects were selected to be immunologically naive to A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2) virus and then dosed via nasal spray with one of three regimens of P-TIV or placebo. One or two doses, 15 µg or 30 µg, were given either once only or twice 14 days apart (1 x 30 µg, 2 x 30 µg, 2 x 15 µg) and subjects were challenged with A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2) virus. Immune responses to the vaccine antigens were measured by haemagglutination inhibition assay (HAI) and nasal wash secretory IgA (sIgA) antibodies. RESULTS: Vaccine reactogenicity was mild, predictable and generally consistent with earlier Phase I studies with this vaccine. Seroconversion to A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2), following vaccination but prior to challenge, occurred in 57% to 77% of subjects in active dosing groups and 2% of placebo subjects. The greatest relative rise in sIgA, following vaccination but prior to challenge, was observed in groups that received 2 doses. CONCLUSION: Intranasal vaccination significantly protected against influenza (as defined by influenza symptoms combined with A/Panama seroconversion) following challenge with A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2). When data were pooled from both studies, efficacy ranged from 58% to 82% in active dosing groups for any influenza symptoms with seroconversion, 67% to 85% for systemic or lower respiratory illness and seroconversion, and 65% to 100% for febrile illness and seroconversion. The two dose regimen was found to be superior to the single dose regimen. In this study, protection against illness associated with evidence of influenza infection (evidence determined by seroconversion) following challenge with virus, significantly correlated with pre-challenge HAI titres (p = 0.0003) and mucosal sIgA (p≤0.0001) individually, and HAI (p = 0.028) and sIgA (p = 0.0014) together. HAI and sIgA levels were inversely related to rates of illness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02522754.

The Determinants of Reported Personal and Household Hygiene Behaviour: A Multi-Country Study.

A substantial proportion of the total infectious disease burden world-wide is due to person-to-person spread of pathogens within households. A questionnaire-based survey on the determinants of hand-washing with soap and cleaning of household surfaces was conducted in at least 1000 households in each of twelve countries across the world (N = 12,239). A structural equation model of hygiene behaviour and its consequences derived from theory was then estimated on this dataset for both behaviours, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The analysis showed that the frequency of handwashing with soap is significantly related to how automatically it is performed, and whether or not someone is busy, or tired. Surface cleaning was strongly linked to possessing a cleaning routine, the perception that one is living in a dirty environment and that others are doing the behaviour, whether one has a strong sense of contamination, as well as a felt need to keep one's surroundings tidy. Being concerned with good manners is also linked to the performance of both behaviours. This study is the first to identify the role of manners, orderliness and routine on hygiene behaviours globally. Such findings should prove helpful in designing programs to improve domestic hygiene practices.

A Synthetic Influenza Virus Vaccine Induces a Cellular Immune Response That Correlates with Reduction in Symptomatology and Virus Shedding in a Randomized Phase Ib Live-Virus Challenge in Humans.

Current influenza vaccines elicit primarily antibody-based immunity. They require yearly revaccination and cannot be manufactured until the identification of the circulating viral strain(s). These issues remain to be addressed. Here we report a phase Ib trial of a vaccine candidate (FLU-v) eliciting cellular immunity. Thirty-two males seronegative for the challenge virus by hemagglutination inhibition assay participated in this single-center, randomized, double-blind study. Volunteers received one dose of either the adjuvant alone (placebo, n = 16) or FLU-v (500 µg) and the adjuvant (n = 16), both in saline. Twenty-one days later, FLU-v (n = 15) and placebo (n = 13) volunteers were challenged with influenza virus A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and monitored for 7 days. Safety, tolerability, and cellular responses were assessed pre- and postvaccination. Virus shedding and clinical signs were assessed postchallenge. FLU-v was safe and well tolerated. No difference in the prevaccination FLU-v-specific gamma interferon (IFN-γ) response was seen between groups (average ± the standard error of the mean [SEM] for the placebo and FLU-v, respectively, 1.4-fold ± 0.2-fold and 1.6-fold ± 0.5-fold higher than the negative-control value). Nineteen days postvaccination, the FLU-v group, but not the placebo group, developed FLU-v-specific IFN-γ responses (8.2-fold ± 3.9-fold versus 1.3-fold ± 0.1-fold higher than the negative-control value [average ± SEM] for FLU-v versus the placebo [P = 0.0005]). FLU-v-specific cellular responses also correlated with reductions in both viral titers (P = 0.01) and symptom scores (P = 0.02) postchallenge. Increased cellular immunity specific to FLU-v correlates with reductions in both symptom scores and virus loads. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01226758 and at hra.nhs.uk under EudraCT no. 2009-014716-35.).

More action, less resistance: report of the 2014 summit of the Global Respiratory Infection Partnership.

'Antimicrobial resistance is a global health security threat that requires concerted cross-sectional action by governments and society as a whole,' according to a report published by the WHO in April 2014([1]) . On 24-25 June 2014, the Global Respiratory Infection Partnership (GRIP) met in London, UK, together with delegates from 18 different countries to discuss practical steps that can be taken at a local level to address this global problem in an aligned approach. This was the second annual summit of GRIP. The group, formed in 2012, includes primary care and hospital physicians, microbiologists, researchers, and pharmacists from nine core countries. GRIP aims to unite healthcare professionals (HCPs) around the world to take action against inappropriate antibiotic use, focussing on one of the most prevalent therapy areas where antibiotics are inappropriately prescribed - upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). Chaired by GRIP member, Professor John Oxford (UK), the 2014 summit included engaging presentations by guest speakers examining the latest science regarding the impact of inappropriate antibiotic use.

Modification of pH Conferring Virucidal Activity on Dental Alginates.

To formulate an alginate dental impression material with virucidal properties, experimental alginate dental impression materials were developed and the formulations adjusted in order to study the effect on pH profiles during setting. Commercially available materials served as a comparison. Eight experimental materials were tested for antiviral activity against Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1). Changing the amount of magnesium oxide (MgO) used in the experimental formulations had a marked effect on pH. Increasing MgO concentration corresponded with increased pH values. All experimental materials brought about viral log reductions ranging between 0.5 and 4.0 over a period of 4 h. The material with the lowest pH was the most effective. The current work highlights the very important role of MgO in controlling pH profiles. This knowledge has been applied to the formulation of experimental alginates; where materials with pH values of approximately 4.2-4.4 are able to achieve a significant log reduction when assayed against HSV-1.

Intranasal H5N1 vaccines, adjuvanted with chitosan derivatives, protect ferrets against highly pathogenic influenza intranasal and intratracheal challenge.

We investigated the protective efficacy of two intranasal chitosan (CSN and TM-CSN) adjuvanted H5N1 Influenza vaccines against highly pathogenic avian Influenza (HPAI) intratracheal and intranasal challenge in a ferret model. Six groups of 6 ferrets were intranasally vaccinated twice, 21 days apart, with either placebo, antigen alone, CSN adjuvanted antigen, or TM-CSN adjuvanted antigen. Homologous and intra-subtypic antibody cross-reacting responses were assessed. Ferrets were inoculated intratracheally (all treatments) or intranasally (CSN adjuvanted and placebo treatments only) with clade 1 HPAI A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1) virus 28 days after the second vaccination and subsequently monitored for morbidity and mortality outcomes. Clinical signs were assessed and nasal as well as throat swabs were taken daily for virology. Samples of lung tissue, nasal turbinates, brain, and olfactory bulb were analysed for the presence of virus and examined for histolopathological findings. In contrast to animals vaccinated with antigen alone, the CSN and TM-CSN adjuvanted vaccines induced high levels of antibodies, protected ferrets from death, reduced viral replication and abrogated disease after intratracheal challenge, and in the case of CSN after intranasal challenge. In particular, the TM-CSN adjuvanted vaccine was highly effective at eliciting protective immunity from intratracheal challenge; serologically, protective titres were demonstrable after one vaccination. The 2-dose schedule with TM-CSN vaccine also induced cross-reactive antibodies to clade 2.1 and 2.2 H5N1 viruses. Furthermore ferrets immunised with TM-CSN had no detectable virus in the respiratory tract or brain, whereas there were signs of virus in the throat and lungs, albeit at significantly reduced levels, in CSN vaccinated animals. This study demonstrated for the first time that CSN and in particular TM-CSN adjuvanted intranasal vaccines have the potential to protect against significant mortality and morbidity arising from infection with HPAI H5N1 virus.

The survival of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus on 4 household surfaces.

We investigated the survival of a pandemic strain of influenza A H1N1 on a variety of common household surfaces where multiple samples were taken from 4 types of common household fomite at 7 time points. Results showed that influenza A H1N1sw virus particles remained infectious for 48 hours on a wooden surface, for 24 hours on stainless steel and plastic surfaces, and for 8 hours on a cloth surface, although virus recovery from the cloth may have been suboptimal. Our results suggest that pandemic influenza A H1N1 can survive on common household fomites for extended periods of time, and that good hand hygiene and regular disinfection of commonly touched surfaces should be practiced during the influenza season to help reduce transmission.

Virus-specific antibody secreting cell, memory B-cell, and sero-antibody responses in the human influenza challenge model.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies play a major role in the protection against influenza virus in human. However, the antibody level is usually short-lived and the cellular mechanisms underlying influenza virus-specific antibody response to acute infection remain unclear. METHODS: We studied the kinetics and magnitude of influenza virus-specific B-cell and serum antibody responses in relation to virus replication during the course of influenza infection in healthy adult volunteers who were previously seronegative and experimentally infected with seasonal influenza H1N1 A/Brisbane/59/07 virus. RESULTS: Our data demonstrated a robust expansion of the virus-specific antibody-secreting cells (ASCs) and memory B cells in the peripheral blood, which correlated with both the throat viral load and the duration of viral shedding. The ASC response was obviously detected on day 7 post-infection when the virus was completely cleared from nasal samples, and serum hemagglutination-inhibition antibodies were still undetectable. On day 28 postinfection, influenza virus-specific B cells were further identified from the circulating compartment of isotype-switched B cells. CONCLUSIONS: Virus-specific ASCs could be the earliest marker of B-cell response to a new flu virus infection, such as H7N9 in humans.

Correlation between human leukocyte antigen class II alleles and HAI titers detected post-influenza vaccination.

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite vaccination, many elderly recipients do not develop a protective antibody response. To determine whether Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles modulate seroprotection to influenza, a cohort of HLA class II-typed high-risk vaccine recipients was investigated. Haemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) titres were measured 14-40 days post-subunit vaccination. Seroprotection was defined as HAI titres reaching 40 or greater for all three vaccine strains. HLA-DRB1*04∶01 and HLA-DPB1*04∶01 alleles were detected at higher frequencies in seroprotected compared with non-seroprotected individuals. Thus, the presence of certain HLA class II alleles may determine the magnitude of antibody responses to influenza vaccination.

Comparing influenza and RSV viral and disease dynamics in experimentally infected adults predicts clinical effectiveness of RSV antivirals.

BACKGROUND: Antivirals reduce influenza viral replication and illness measures, particularly if initiated early, within 48 h of symptom onset. Whether experimental antivirals that reduce respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) load would also reduce disease is unknown. This study compares viral and disease dynamics in humans experimentally infected with influenza or RSV. METHODS: Clinical strains of RSV-A and influenza A were inoculated intranasally into 20 and 17 healthy volunteers, respectively, on day 0. Symptom scores and nasal washes were performed twice daily, and daily mucus weights were collected. Viral loads in nasal washes were quantified by culture (plaque assay in HEp-2 cells for RSV and by end point dilution in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells for influenza). RESULTS: After influenza inoculation, influenza viral load and illness markers increased simultaneously until day 2. Within individual subjects, peak influenza load occurred 0.4 days (95% CI -0.4, 1.3) before peak symptoms. Influenza viral load and disease declined thereafter. After RSV inoculation, a longer incubation period occurred prior to viral detection and symptom onset. RSV load and disease increased together until day 5. Within individual subjects, peak RSV loads occurred 0.2 days (95% CI -0.7, 1.05) before peak symptoms, after which both illness measures and viral load declined together. CONCLUSIONS: Viral and disease dynamics in experimental human infections suggest that reducing RSV load, if timed similarly to clinically-effective influenza antivirals, might be expected to have a similar or greater window of opportunity for reducing clinical RSV disease.

Towards a universal influenza vaccine: volunteer virus challenge studies in quarantine to speed the development and subsequent licensing.

There are now more than 5 experimental vaccine formulations which induce T and B cell immunity towards the internally situated virus proteins matrix (M1 and M2e) and nucleoprotein (NP), and towards stem and stalk regions of the HA which have a shared antigenic structure amongst many of the 17 influenza A virus sub types. Such 'universal vaccines' could be used, at least in theory, as a prophylactic stockpile vaccine for newly emerged epidemic and novel pandemic influenza A viruses or as a supplement to conventional HA/NA vaccines. My own laboratory has approached the problem from the clinical viewpoint by identifying CD4(+) cells which are present in influenza infected volunteers who resist influenza infection. We have established precisely which peptides in M and NP proteins react with these immune CD4 cells. These experimental vaccines induce immunity in animal models but with a single exception no data have been published on protection against influenza virus infection in humans. The efficacy of the latter vaccine is based on vaccinia virus (MVA) as a carrier and was analyzed in a quarantine unit. Given the absence of induced HI antibody in the new universal vaccines a possible licensing strategy is a virus challenge model in quarantine whereby healthy volunteers can be immunized with the new vaccine and thereafter deliberately infected and clinical signs recorded alongside quantities of virus excreted and compared with unvaccinated controls.

The burden of influenza B: a structured literature review.

We reviewed the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, disease severity, and economic burden of influenza B as reported in the peer-reviewed published literature. We used MEDLINE to perform a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed, English-language literature published between 1995 and 2010. Widely variable frequency data were reported. Clinical presentation of influenza B was similar to that of influenza A, although we observed conflicting reports. Influenza B-specific data on hospitalization rates, length of stay, and economic outcomes were limited but demonstrated that the burden of influenza B can be significant. The medical literature demonstrates that influenza B can pose a significant burden to the global population. The comprehensiveness and quality of reporting on influenza B, however, could be substantially improved. Few articles described complications. Additional data regarding the incidence, clinical burden, and economic impact of influenza B would augment our understanding of the disease and assist in vaccine development.