The Role of Digital Technologies in Responding to the Grand Challenges of the Natural Environment: The Windermere Accord.

Digital technology is having a major impact on many areas of society, and there is equal opportunity for impact on science. This is particularly true in the environmental sciences as we seek to understand the complexities of the natural environment under climate change. This perspective presents the outcomes of a summit in this area, a unique cross-disciplinary gathering bringing together environmental scientists, data scientists, computer scientists, social scientists, and representatives of the creative arts. The key output of this workshop is an agreed vision in the form of a framework and associated roadmap, captured in the Windermere Accord. This accord envisions a new kind of environmental science underpinned by unprecedented amounts of data, with technological advances leading to breakthroughs in taming uncertainty and complexity, and also supporting openness, transparency, and reproducibility in science. The perspective also includes a call to build an international community working in this important area.

A Bayesian approach to modelling the impact of hydrodynamic shear stress on biofilm deformation.

We investigate the feasibility of using a surrogate-based method to emulate the deformation and detachment behaviour of a biofilm in response to hydrodynamic shear stress. The influence of shear force, growth rate and viscoelastic parameters on the patterns of growth, structure and resulting shape of microbial biofilms was examined. We develop a statistical modelling approach to this problem, using combination of Bayesian Poisson regression and dynamic linear models for the emulation. We observe that the hydrodynamic shear force affects biofilm deformation in line with some literature. Sensitivity results also showed that the expected number of shear events, shear flow, yield coefficient for heterotrophic bacteria and extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) stiffness per unit EPS mass are the four principal mechanisms governing the bacteria detachment in this study. The sensitivity of the model parameters is temporally dynamic, emphasising the significance of conducting the sensitivity analysis across multiple time points. The surrogate models are shown to perform well, and produced ≈ 480 fold increase in computational efficiency. We conclude that a surrogate-based approach is effective, and resulting biofilm structure is determined primarily by a balance between bacteria growth, viscoelastic parameters and applied shear stress.

A mechanistic Individual-based Model of microbial communities.

Accurate predictive modelling of the growth of microbial communities requires the credible representation of the interactions of biological, chemical and mechanical processes. However, although biological and chemical processes are represented in a number of Individual-based Models (IbMs) the interaction of growth and mechanics is limited. Conversely, there are mechanically sophisticated IbMs with only elementary biology and chemistry. This study focuses on addressing these limitations by developing a flexible IbM that can robustly combine the biological, chemical and physical processes that dictate the emergent properties of a wide range of bacterial communities. This IbM is developed by creating a microbiological adaptation of the open source Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS). This innovation should provide the basis for "bottom up" prediction of the emergent behaviour of entire microbial systems. In the model presented here, bacterial growth, division, decay, mechanical contact among bacterial cells, and adhesion between the bacteria and extracellular polymeric substances are incorporated. In addition, fluid-bacteria interaction is implemented to simulate biofilm deformation and erosion. The model predicts that the surface morphology of biofilms becomes smoother with increased nutrient concentration, which agrees well with previous literature. In addition, the results show that increased shear rate results in smoother and more compact biofilms. The model can also predict shear rate dependent biofilm deformation, erosion, streamer formation and breakup.