Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw.

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)-the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer-is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

Incorporating concentration-dependent sediment microbial activity into methylmercury production kinetics modeling.

In anoxic environments, anaerobic microorganisms carrying the hgcAB gene cluster can mediate the transformation of inorganic mercury (Hg(II)) to monomethylmercury (MMHg). The kinetics of Hg(II) transformation to MMHg in periphyton from East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, TN have previously been modeled using a transient availability model (TAM). The TAM for Hg(II) methylation combines methylation/demethylation kinetics with kinetic expressions for processes that decrease Hg(II) and MMHg availability for methylation and demethylation (multisite sorption of Hg(II) and MMHg, Hg(II) reduction/Hg(0) oxidation). In this study, the TAM is used for the first time to describe MMHg production in sediment. We assessed MMHg production in sediment microcosms using two different sediment types from EFPC: a relatively anoxic, carbon-rich sediment with higher microbial activity (higher CO2 production from sediment) and a relatively oxic, sandy, carbon-poor sediment with lower microbial activity (lower CO2 production from sediment). Based on 16s rRNA sequencing, the overall microbial community structure in the two sediments was retained during the incubations. However, the hgcA containing methanogenic Euryarchaeota communities differed between sediment types and their growth followed different trajectories over the course of incubations, potentially contributing to the distinct patterns of MMHg production observed. The general TAM paradigm performed well in describing MMHg production in the sediments. However, the MMHg production and ancillary data suggested the need to revise the model structure to incorporate terms for concentration-dependent microbial activity over the course of the incubations. We modified the TAM to include Monod-type kinetics for methylation and demethylation and observed an improved fit for the carbon-rich, microbially active sediment. Overall our work shows that the TAM can be applied to describe Hg(II) methylation in sediments and that including expressions accounting for concentration-dependent microbial activity can improve the accuracy of the model description of the data in some cases.

The AQUA-MER databases and aqueous speciation server: A web resource for multiscale modeling of mercury speciation.

To assess the chemical reactivity, toxicity, and mobility of pollutants in the environment, knowledge of their species distributions is critical. Because their direct measurement is often infeasible, speciation modeling is widely adopted. Mercury (Hg) is a representative pollutant for which study of its speciation benefits from modeling. However, Hg speciation modeling is often hindered by a lack of reliable thermodynamic constants. Although computational chemistry (e.g., density functional theory [DFT]) can generate these constants, methods for directly coupling DFT and speciation modeling are not available. Here, we combine computational chemistry and continuum-scale modeling with curated online databases to ameliorate the problem of unreliable inputs to Hg speciation modeling. Our AQUA-MER databases and web server (https://aquamer.ornl.gov) provides direct speciation results by combining web-based interfaces to a speciation calculator, databases of thermodynamic constants, and a computational chemistry toolkit to estimate missing constants. Although Hg is presented as a concrete use case, AQUA-MER can also be readily applied to other elements. © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kinetics of Methylmercury Production Revisited.

Laboratory measurements of the biologically mediated methylation of mercury (Hg) to the neurotoxin monomethylmercury (MMHg) often exhibit kinetics that are inconsistent with first-order kinetic models. Using time-resolved measurements of filter passing Hg and MMHg during methylation/demethylation assays, a multisite kinetic sorption model, and reanalyses of previous assays, we show that competing kinetic sorption reactions can lead to time-varying availability and apparent non-first-order kinetics in Hg methylation and MMHg demethylation. The new model employing a multisite kinetic sorption model for Hg and MMHg can describe the range of behaviors for time-resolved methylation/demethylation data reported in the literature including those that exhibit non-first-order kinetics. Additionally, we show that neglecting competing sorption processes can confound analyses of methylation/demethylation assays, resulting in rate constant estimates that are systematically biased low. Simulations of MMHg production and transport in a hypothetical periphyton biofilm bed illustrate the implications of our new model and demonstrate that methylmercury production may be significantly different than projected by single-rate first-order models.

A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery.

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.