Incremental Prognostic Value of a Coronary Heart Disease Polygenic Risk Score in Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The recent availability of cardiovascular risk-reducing type 2 diabetes (T2D) therapies makes it imperative to optimally identify individuals who could derive benefit. Current clinical risk prediction may misclassify individuals as low risk and could be improved. Our aim was to determine the incremental prognostic value of a coronary heart disease (CHD) genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) to a clinical risk score in prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated 10,556 individuals with T2D aged 40-79 without a prior cardiovascular hospitalization. We calculated 10-year clinical cardiovascular risk at the date of recruitment using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE Risk) and constructed a CHD PRS. The primary outcome was time to first MACE incidence, and we assessed the additional incremental predictive value of the CHD PRS to the PCE risk. RESULTS: At 10 years, there were 1,477 MACE. After adjustment for clinical risk, the CHD PRS was significantly associated with MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.69 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.60-1.79). Individuals with PCE Risk <7.5% but in the top quintile of CHD PRS had a significantly increased likelihood of MACE (HR 10.69, 95% CI 5.07-22.55) compared with those in the lowest. The addition of the PRS to the clinical risk score led to significant improvements in risk prediction, particularly in those at low clinical risk. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of a CHD PRS to clinical assessment improved MACE prediction in T2D individuals without prior cardiovascular disease, particularly in those at low clinical risk.

Cohort profile: The Scottish SHARE Mental Health (SHARE-MH) cohort - linkable survey, genetic and routinely collected data for mental health research.

PURPOSE: The SHARE Mental Health (SHARE-MH) cohort was established to address the paucity of clinical and genetic data available for mental health research. The cohort brings together detailed mental health questionnaire responses, routinely collected electronic health data and genetic data to provide researchers with an unprecedented linkable dataset. This combination of data sources allows researchers to track mental health longitudinally, across multiple settings. It will be of interest to researchers investigating the genetic and environmental determinants of mental health, the experiences of those interacting with healthcare services, and the overlap between self-reported and clinically derived mental health outcomes. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort consists of individuals sampled from the Scottish Health Research Register (SHARE). To register for SHARE, individuals had to be over the age of 16 years and living in Scotland. Cohort participants were recruited by email and invited to take part in an online mental health survey. When signing up for SHARE, participants also provided written consent to the use of their electronic health records and genetic data-derived from spare blood samples-for research purposes. FINDINGS TO DATE: From 5 February 2021 to 27 November 2021, 9829 individuals completed a survey of various mental health topics, capturing information on symptoms, diagnoses, impact and treatment. Survey responses have been made linkable to electronic health records and genetic data using a single patient identifier. Linked data have been used to describe the cohort in terms of their demographics, self-reported mental health, inpatient and outpatient hospitalisations and dispensed prescriptions. FUTURE PLANS: The cohort will be improved through linkage to a broader variety of routinely collected data and to increasing amounts of genetic data obtained through blood sample diversion. We see the SHARE-MH cohort being used to drive forward novel areas of mental health research and to contribute to global efforts in psychiatric genetics.

Pharmacogenetics at scale in real-world bioresources: CYP2C19 and clopidogrel outcomes in UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of CYP2C19 genotype on clopidogrel outcomes is one of the most well established pharmacogenetic interactions, supported by robust evidence and recommended by the Food and Drug Administration and clinical pharmacogenetics implementation consortium. However, there is a scarcity of large-scale real-world data on the extent of this pharmacogenetic effect, and clinical testing for the CYP2C19 genotype remains infrequent. This study utilizes the UK Biobank dataset, including 10 365 patients treated with clopidogrel, to offer the largest observational analysis of these pharmacogenetic effects to date. METHODS: Incorporating time-varying drug exposure and repeated clinical outcome, we adopted semiparametric frailty models to detect and quantify exposure-based effects of CYP2C19 (*2,*17) variants and nongenetic factors on the incidence risks of composite outcomes of death or recurrent hospitalizations due to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or hemorrhage in the entire cohort of clopidogrel-treated patients. RESULTS: Out of the 10 365 clopidogrel-treated patients, 40% (4115) experienced 10 625 MACE events during an average follow-up of 9.23 years. Individuals who received clopidogrel (coverage >25%) with a CYP2C19*2 loss-of-function allele had a 9.4% higher incidence of MACE [incidence rate ratios (IRR), 1.094; 1.044-1.146], but a 15% lower incidence of hemorrhage (IRR, 0.849; 0.712-0.996). These effects were stronger with high clopidogrel exposure. Conversely, the gain-of-function CYP2C19*17 variant was associated with a 5.3% lower incidence of MACE (IRR, 0.947; 0.903-0.983). Notably, there was no evidence of *2 or *17 effects when clopidogrel exposure was low, confirming the presence of a drug-gene interaction. CONCLUSION: The impact of CYP2C19 on clinical outcomes in clopidogrel-treated patients is substantial, highlighting the importance of incorporating genotype-based prescribing into clinical practice, regardless of the reason for clopidogrel use or the duration of treatment. Moreover, the methodology introduced in this study can be applied to further real-world investigations of known drug-gene and drug-drug interactions and the discovery of novel interactions.

Environmental risk factors for respiratory infection and wheeze in young children: A multicentre birth cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory infections and wheeze have a considerable impact on the health of young children and consume significant healthcare resources. We aimed to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on respiratory infections and symptoms in early childhood. METHODS: Environmental risk factors including: daycare attendance; breastfeeding; siblings; damp within the home; environmental tobacco smoke (ETS); child's bedroom flooring; animal exposure; road traffic density around child's home; and solid fuel pollution within home were assessed in children recruited to the GO-CHILD multicentre prospective birth cohort study. Follow-up information on respiratory infections (bronchiolitis, pneumonia, otitis media and cold or flu), wheeze and cough symptoms, healthcare utilisation and medication prescription was collected by postal questionnaires at 12 and 24 months. Log binomial and ordered logistic regression models were fitted to the data. RESULTS: Follow-up was obtained on 1344 children. Daycare was associated with increased odds of pneumonia (odds ratio [OR] = 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-5.49), bronchiolitis (OR = 1.40, 1.02-1.90), otitis media (OR = 1.68, 1.32-2.14) and emergency department attendance for wheeze (RR = 1.81, 1.17-2.80). Breastfeeding beyond 6 months was associated with a reduced odds of bronchiolitis (OR = 0.55, 0.39-0.77) and otitis media (OR = 0.75, 0.59-0.99). Siblings at home was associated with an increased odds of bronchiolitis (OR = 1.65, 1.18-2.32) and risk of reliever inhaler prescription (RR = 1.37, 1.02-1.85). Visible damp was associated with an increased odds of wheeze (OR = 1.85, 1.11-3.19), and risk of reliever inhaler (RR = 1.73, 1.04-2.89) and inhaled corticosteroid prescription (RR = 2.61, 1.03-6.59). ETS exposure was associated with an increased odds of primary care attendance for cough or wheeze (OR = 1.52, 1.11-2.08). Dense traffic around the child's home was associated with an increased odds of bronchiolitis (OR = 1.32, 1.08-2.29). CONCLUSION: Environmental factors likely influence the wide variation in infection frequency and symptoms observed in early childhood. Larger population studies are necessary to further inform and guide public health policy to decrease the burden of respiratory infections and wheeze in young children.

Competing risks analysis for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of diabetic retinopathy incidence in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major sight-threatening microvascular complication in individuals with diabetes. Systemic inflammation combined with oxidative stress is thought to capture most of the complexities involved in the pathology of diabetic retinopathy. A high level of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an indicator of abnormal immune system activity. Current estimates of the association of NLR with diabetes and its complications are almost entirely derived from cross-sectional studies, suggesting that the nature of the reported association may be more diagnostic than prognostic. Therefore, in the present study, we examined the utility of NLR as a biomarker to predict the incidence of DR in the Scottish population. METHODS: The incidence of DR was defined as the time to the first diagnosis of R1 or above grade in the Scottish retinopathy grading scheme from type 2 diabetes diagnosis. The effect of NLR and its interactions were explored using a competing risks survival model adjusting for other risk factors and accounting for deaths. The Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model (FGR) was used to predict the effect of NLR on the incidence of DR. RESULTS: We analysed data from 23,531 individuals with complete covariate information. At 10 years, 8416 (35.8%) had developed DR and 2989 (12.7%) were lost to competing events (death) without developing DR and 12,126 individuals did not have DR. The median (interquartile range) level of NLR was 2.04 (1.5 to 2.7). The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict retinopathy incidence was 3.04. After accounting for competing risks at 10 years, the cumulative incidence of DR and deaths without DR were 50.7% and 21.9%, respectively. NLR was associated with incident DR in both Cause-specific hazard (CSH = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.07) and FGR models the subdistribution hazard (sHR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.70-2.94). Both age and HbA1c were found to modulate the association between NLR and the risk of DR. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that NLR has a promising potential to predict DR incidence in the Scottish population, especially in individuals less than 65 years and in those with well-controlled glycaemic status.

Common and Distinct Genetic Architecture of Age at Diagnosis of Diabetes in South Indian and European Populations.

OBJECTIVE: South Asians are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (T2D) more than a decade earlier in life than seen in European populations. We hypothesized that studying the genomics of age of diagnosis in these populations may give insight into the earlier age diagnosis of T2D among individuals of South Asian descent. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of age at diagnosis of T2D in 34,001 individuals from four independent cohorts of European and South Asian Indians. RESULTS: We identified two signals near the TCF7L2 and CDKAL1 genes associated with age at the onset of T2D. The strongest genome-wide significant variants at chromosome 10q25.3 in TCF7L2 (rs7903146; P = 2.4 × 10-12, ß = -0.436; SE 0.02) and chromosome 6p22.3 in CDKAL1 (rs9368219; P = 2.29 × 10-8; ß = -0.053; SE 0.01) were directionally consistent across ethnic groups and present at similar frequencies; however, both loci harbored additional independent signals that were only present in the South Indian cohorts. A genome-wide signal was also obtained at chromosome 10q26.12 in WDR11 (rs3011366; P = 3.255 × 10-8; ß = 1.44; SE 0.25), specifically in the South Indian cohorts. Heritability estimates for the age at diagnosis were much stronger in South Indians than Europeans, and a polygenic risk score constructed based on South Indian GWAS explained ∼2% trait variance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide a better understanding of ethnic differences in the age at diagnosis and indicate the potential importance of ethnic differences in the genetic architecture underpinning T2D.

Amino acid homeostasis is a target of metformin therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Unexplained changes in regulation of branched chain amino acids (BCAA) during diabetes therapy with metformin have been known for years. Here we have investigated mechanisms underlying this effect. METHODS: We used cellular approaches, including single gene/protein measurements, as well as systems-level proteomics. Findings were then cross-validated with electronic health records and other data from human material. RESULTS: In cell studies, we observed diminished uptake/incorporation of amino acids following metformin treatment of liver cells and cardiac myocytes. Supplementation of media with amino acids attenuated known effects of the drug, including on glucose production, providing a possible explanation for discrepancies between effective doses in vivo and in vitro observed in most studies. Data-Independent Acquisition proteomics identified that SNAT2, which mediates tertiary control of BCAA uptake, was the most strongly suppressed amino acid transporter in liver cells following metformin treatment. Other transporters were affected to a lesser extent. In humans, metformin attenuated increased risk of left ventricular hypertrophy due to the AA allele of KLF15, which is an inducer of BCAA catabolism. In plasma from a double-blind placebo-controlled trial in nondiabetic heart failure (trial registration: NCT00473876), metformin caused selective accumulation of plasma BCAA and glutamine, consistent with the effects in cells. CONCLUSIONS: Metformin restricts tertiary control of BCAA cellular uptake. We conclude that modulation of amino acid homeostasis contributes to therapeutic actions of the drug.

A gene risk score using missense variants in SLCO1B1 is associated with earlier onset statin intolerance.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The efficacy of statin therapy is hindered by intolerance to the therapy, leading to discontinuation. Variants in SLCO1B1, which encodes the hepatic transporter OATB1B1, influence statin pharmacokinetics, resulting in altered plasma concentrations of the drug and its metabolites. Current pharmacogenetic guidelines require sequencing of the SLCO1B1 gene, which is more expensive and less accessible than genotyping. In this study, we aimed to develop an easy, clinically implementable functional gene risk score (GRS) of common variants in SLCO1B1 to identify patients at risk of statin intolerance. METHODS AND RESULTS: A GRS was developed from four common variants in SLCO1B1. In statin users from Tayside, Scotland, UK, those with a high-risk GRS had increased odds across three phenotypes of statin intolerance [general statin intolerance (GSI): ORGSI 2.42; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-4.31, P = 0.003; statin-related myopathy: ORSRM 2.51; 95% CI: 1.28-4.53, P = 0.004; statin-related suspected rhabdomyolysis: ORSRSR 2.85; 95% CI: 1.03-6.65, P = 0.02]. In contrast, using the Val174Ala genotype alone or the recommended OATP1B1 functional phenotypes produced weaker and less reliable results. A meta-analysis with results from adjudicated cases of statin-induced myopathy in the PREDICTION-ADR Consortium confirmed these findings (ORVal174Ala 1.99; 95% CI: 1.01-3.95, P = 0.048; ORGRS 1.76; 95% CI: 1.16-2.69, P = 0.008). For those requiring high-dose statin therapy, the high-risk GRS was more consistently associated with the time to onset of statin intolerance amongst the three phenotypes compared with Val174Ala (GSI: HRVal174Ala 2.49; 95% CI: 1.09-5.68, P = 0.03; HRGRS 2.44; 95% CI: 1.46-4.08, P < 0.001). Finally, sequence kernel association testing confirmed that rare variants in SLCO1B1 are associated with the risk of intolerance (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: We provide evidence that a GRS based on four common SLCO1B1 variants provides an easily implemented genetic tool that is more reliable than the current recommended practice in estimating the risk and predicting early-onset statin intolerance.

The cholesterol-lowering effect of statins is modified by LILRB5 intolerance genotype: Results from a recruit-by-genotype clinical trial.

Background/Aims: Statin intolerance leads to poor adherence to statin therapy, resulting in a failure to achieve desired cholesterol reduction and adverse outcomes. The LILRB5 Asp247Gly genotype has been identified as being associated with statin intolerance and statin-induced myalgia. We conducted a randomized clinical trial to examine its role in immune response through T regulatory cell aggregation and in achieving cholesterol reduction targets. Methods: A double-blind, cross-over, recruit-by-genotype trial was undertaken. A total of 18 participants who had either the Asp247Asp (T/T) genotype or the Gly247Gly (C/C) genotype were recruited to the study. Participants were randomised to receive placebo or atorvastatin 80 mg daily for 28 days. Following a washout period of 3 weeks, they were then switched to the opposite treatment. Biochemical and immunological measurements as well as interviews were performed prior to and after both treatment periods. Within genotype group comparisons were performed using repeated measures Wilcoxon tests. Two-way repeated measures ANOVA with genotype and treatment as factors were used to compare changes in biochemical parameters between groups during placebo and atorvastatin periods. Results: Individuals with the Asp247Asp genotype had a greater increase in creatine kinase (CK) compared to those with Gly247Gly genotype in response to atorvastatin (p = 0.03). Those with Gly247Gly genotype had a mean non-HDL cholesterol reduction of 2.44 (95% CI:1.59 - 3.29) mmol/L while in Asp247Asp genotype group the mean reduction was 1.28 (95%CI: 0.48 - 2.07) mmol/L. The interaction between the genotype and atorvastatin treatment for total cholesterol (p = 0.007) and non-HDL cholesterol response was significant (p = 0.025). Immunological assessment showed no significant changes in aggregation of T regulatory cells by genotype. Conclusion: The Asp247Gly variant in LILRB5, previously associated with statin intolerance, was associated with differential increases in creatine kinase and total cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol-lowering response to atorvastatin. Taken together, these results suggest that this variant could have utility in precision cardiovascular therapy.

A Meta-Analysis of the Genome-Wide Association Studies on Two Genetically Correlated Phenotypes Suggests Four New Risk Loci for Headaches.

Headache is one of the commonest complaints that doctors need to address in clinical settings. The genetic mechanisms of different types of headache are not well understood while it has been suggested that self-reported headache and self-reported migraine were genetically correlated. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on the self-reported headache phenotype from the UK Biobank and the self-reported migraine phenotype from the 23andMe using the Unified Score-based Association Test (metaUSAT) software for genetically correlated phenotypes (N = 397,385). We identified 38 loci for headaches, of which 34 loci have been reported before and four loci were newly suggested. The LDL receptor related protein 1 (LRP1)-Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 6 (STAT6)-S hort chain D ehydrogenase/R eductase family 9C member 7 (SDR9C7) region in chromosome 12 was the most significantly associated locus with a leading p value of 1.24 × 10-62 of rs11172113. The One Cut homeobox 2 (ONECUT2) gene locus in chromosome 18 was the strongest signal among the four new loci with a p value of 1.29 × 10-9 of rs673939. Our study demonstrated that the genetically correlated phenotypes of self-reported headache and self-reported migraine can be meta-analysed together in theory and in practice to boost study power to identify more variants for headaches. This study has paved way for a large GWAS meta-analysis involving cohorts of different while genetically correlated headache phenotypes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43657-022-00078-7.

Development and external validation of multivariable risk models to predict incident and resolved neuropathic pain: a DOLORisk Dundee study.

Neuropathic pain is difficult to treat, and an understanding of the risk factors for its onset and resolution is warranted. This study aimed to develop and externally validate two clinical risk models to predict onset and resolution of chronic neuropathic pain. Participants of Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS; general Scottish population; n = 20,221) and Genetic of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS; n = 5236) were sent a questionnaire on neuropathic pain and followed- -up 18 months later. Chronic neuropathic pain was defined using DN4 scores (≥ 3/7) and pain for 3 months or more. The models were developed in GS using logistic regression with backward elimination based on the Akaike information criterion. External validation was conducted in GoDARTS and assessed model discrimination (ROC and Precision-Recall curves), calibration and clinical utility (decision curve analysis [DCA]). Analysis revealed incidences of neuropathic pain onset (6.0% in GS [236/3903] and 10.7% in GoDARTS [61/571]) and resolution (42.6% in GS [230/540] and 23.7% in GoDARTS [56/236]). Psychosocial and lifestyle factors were included in both onset and resolved prediction models. In GoDARTS, these models showed adequate discrimination (ROC = 0.636 and 0.699), but there was evidence of miscalibration (Intercept = - 0.511 and - 0.424; slope = 0.623 and 0.999). The DCA indicated that the models would provide clinical benefit over a range of possible risk thresholds. To our knowledge, these are the first externally validated risk models for neuropathic pain. The findings are of interest to patients and clinicians in the community, who may take preventative or remedial measures.

Identification of 4 New Loci Associated With Primary Hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) and a Polygenic Risk Score for PHPT.

CONTEXT: A hypothesis-free genetic association analysis has not been reported for patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate genetic associations with PHPT using both genome-wide association study (GWAS) and candidate gene approaches. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among patients of European White ethnicity recruited in Tayside (Scotland, UK). Electronic medical records were used to identify PHPT cases and controls, and linked to genetic biobank data. Genetic associations were performed by logistic regression models and odds ratios (ORs). The combined effect of the genotypes was researched by genetic risk score (GRS) analysis. RESULTS: We identified 15 622 individuals for the GWAS that yielded 34 top single-nucleotide variations (formerly single-nucleotide polymorphisms), and LPAR3-rs147672681 reached genome-wide statistical significance (P = 1.2e-08). Using a more restricted PHPT definition, 8722 individuals with data on the GWAS-identified loci were found. Age- and sex-adjusted ORs for the effect alleles of SOX9-rs11656269, SLITRK5-rs185436526, and BCDIN3D-AS1-rs2045094 showed statistically significant increased risks (P < 1.5e-03). GRS analysis of 5482 individuals showed an OR of 2.51 (P = 1.6e-04), 3.78 (P = 4.0e-08), and 7.71 (P = 5.3e-17) for the second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively, compared to the first, and there was a statistically significant linear trend across quartiles (P < 1.0e-04). Results were similar when stratifying by sex. CONCLUSION: Using genetic loci discovered in a GWAS of PHPT carried out in a Scottish population, this study suggests new evidence for the involvement of genetic variants at SOX9, SLITRK5, LPAR3, and BCDIN3D-AS1. It also suggests that male and female carriers of greater numbers of PHPT-risk alleles both have a statistically significant increased risk of PHPT.

Mannose-binding lectin genotype is associated with respiratory disease in young children: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is an important component of the innate immune system. Polymorphisms in the MBL2 gene and promoter region are directly associated with MBL-deficiency. We sought to determine the association between MBL genotype on the frequency of common childhood respiratory infections, respiratory symptoms, and atopic outcomes in early childhood. METHODS: MBL2 gene variants were analyzed in newborns recruited to the GO-CHILD multicenter prospective cohort study. Follow-up for respiratory infection and atopy diagnoses and symptoms, healthcare utilization, and medication prescription were conducted by postal questionnaires at 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Genotyping and follow-up were completed in 1004 children. Genotypes associated with MBL-deficiency were associated with an increased risk of bronchiolitis (relative risk [RR] 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.85) and pneumonia (RR 2.46, 95% CI 1.16-5.22). MBL-deficient genotypes were associated with an increased risk of wheeze with shortness of breath episodes (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.04-1.43), emergency department attendance (RR 1.90 95% CI 1.13-3.19), and hospital admission (RR 2.01, 95% CI 1.04-3.89) for wheeze. MBL-deficient genotypes were associated with a reduced risk of developing atopic dermatitis (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.53-0.98). CONCLUSION: The positive association between MBL-deficient genotypes and bronchiolitis and pneumonia, as well as a severe wheeze phenotype in some young children, supports the hypothesis that MBL is an important component of innate immunity in the vulnerable period before the maturation of the adaptive immune system. Identification of disease-modifying genotypes may help target preventative strategies in high-risk infants.

Heterogeneity in phenotype, disease progression and drug response in type 2 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a complex chronic disease characterized by considerable phenotypic heterogeneity. In this study, we applied a reverse graph embedding method to routinely collected data from 23,137 Scottish patients with newly diagnosed diabetes to visualize this heterogeneity and used partitioned diabetes polygenic risk scores to gain insight into the underlying biological processes. Overlaying risk of progression to outcomes of insulin requirement, chronic kidney disease, referable diabetic retinopathy and major adverse cardiovascular events, we show how these risks differ by patient phenotype. For example, patients at risk of retinopathy are phenotypically different from those at risk of cardiovascular events. We replicated our findings in the UK Biobank and the ADOPT clinical trial, also showing that the pattern of diabetes drug monotherapy response differs for different drugs. Overall, our analysis highlights how, in a European population, underlying phenotypic variation drives T2D onset and affects subsequent diabetes outcomes and drug response, demonstrating the need to incorporate these factors into personalized treatment approaches for the management of T2D.

Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease as a risk factor for cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between obesity, diabetes and metabolic related liver dysfunction and the incidence of cancer. DESIGN: This study was conducted with health record data available from the National Health Service in Tayside and Fife. Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside, Scotland (GoDARTS), Scottish Health Research Register (SHARE) and Tayside and Fife diabetics, three Scottish cohorts of 13 695, 62 438 and 16 312 patients, respectively, were analysed in this study. Participants in GoDARTS were a volunteer sample, with half having type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM). SHARE was a volunteer sample. Tayside and Fife diabetics was a population-level cohort. Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease (MDLD) was defined using alanine transaminase measurements, and individuals with alternative causes of liver disease (alcohol abuse, viruses, etc) were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS: MDLD associated with increased cancer incidence with a HR of 1.31 in a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for sex, type 2 diabetes, body mass index(BMI), and smoking status (95% CI 1.27 to 1.35, p<0.0001). This was replicated in two further cohorts, and similar associations with cancer incidence were found for Fatty Liver Index (FLI), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Homozygous carriers of the common non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) risk-variant PNPLA3 rs738409 had increased risk of cancer. (HR=1.27 (1.02 to 1.58), p=3.1×10 -2). BMI was not independently associated with cancer incidence when MDLD was included as a covariate. CONCLUSION: MDLD, FLI, FIB-4 and NASH associated with increased risk of cancer incidence and death. NAFLD may be a major component of the relationship between obesity and cancer incidence.

Young-onset diabetes in Asian Indians is associated with lower measured and genetically determined beta cell function.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: South Asians in general, and Asian Indians in particular, have higher risk of type 2 diabetes compared with white Europeans, and a younger age of onset. The reasons for the younger age of onset in relation to obesity, beta cell function and insulin sensitivity are under-explored. METHODS: Two cohorts of Asian Indians, the ICMR-INDIAB cohort (Indian Council of Medical Research-India Diabetes Study) and the DMDSC cohort (Dr Mohan's Diabetes Specialties Centre), and one of white Europeans, the ESDC (East Scotland Diabetes Cohort), were used. Using a cross-sectional design, we examined the comparative prevalence of healthy, overweight and obese participants with young-onset diabetes, classified according to their BMI. We explored the role of clinically measured beta cell function in diabetes onset in Asian Indians. Finally, the comparative distribution of a partitioned polygenic score (pPS) for risk of diabetes due to poor beta cell function was examined. Replication of the genetic findings was sought using data from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: The prevalence of young-onset diabetes with normal BMI was 9.3% amongst white Europeans and 24-39% amongst Asian Indians. In Asian Indians with young-onset diabetes, after adjustment for family history of type 2 diabetes, sex, insulin sensitivity and HDL-cholesterol, stimulated C-peptide was 492 pmol/ml (IQR 353-616, p<0.0001) lower in lean compared with obese individuals. Asian Indians in our study, and South Asians from the UK Biobank, had a higher number of risk alleles than white Europeans. After weighting the pPS for beta cell function, Asian Indians have lower genetically determined beta cell function than white Europeans (p<0.0001). The pPS was associated with age of diagnosis in Asian Indians but not in white Europeans. The pPS explained 2% of the variation in clinically measured beta cell function, and 1.2%, 0.97%, and 0.36% of variance in age of diabetes amongst Asian Indians with normal BMI, or classified as overweight and obese BMI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of lean BMI in young-onset diabetes is over two times higher in Asian Indians compared with white Europeans. This phenotype of lean, young-onset diabetes appears driven in part by lower beta cell function. We demonstrate that Asian Indians with diabetes also have lower genetically determined beta cell function.

Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events From Retinal, Clinical, and Genomic Data in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: A Population Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Improved identification of individuals with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular (CV) risk could help in selection of newer CV risk-reducing therapies. The aim of this study was to determine whether retinal vascular parameters, derived from retinal screening photographs, alone and in combination with a genome-wide polygenic risk score for coronary heart disease (CHD PRS) would have independent prognostic value over traditional CV risk assessment in patients without prior CV disease. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) study were linked to retinal photographs, prescriptions, and outcomes. Retinal photographs were analyzed using VAMPIRE (Vascular Assessment and Measurement Platform for Images of the Retina) software, a semiautomated artificial intelligence platform, to compute arterial and venous fractal dimension, tortuosity, and diameter. CHD PRS was derived from previously published data. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between retinal vascular parameters and major adverse CV events (MACE) at 10 years compared with the pooled cohort equations (PCE) risk score. RESULTS: Among 5,152 individuals included in the study, a MACE occurred in 1,017 individuals. Reduced arterial fractal dimension and diameter and increased venous tortuosity each independently predicted MACE. A risk score combining these parameters significantly predicted MACE after adjustment for age, sex, PCE, and the CHD PRS (hazard ratio 1.11 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.04-1.18, P = 0.002) with similar accuracy to PCE (area under the curve [AUC] 0.663 vs. 0.658, P = 0.33). A model incorporating retinal parameters and PRS improved MACE prediction compared with PCE (AUC 0.686 vs. 0.658, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Retinal parameters alone and in combination with genome-wide CHD PRS have independent and incremental prognostic value compared with traditional CV risk assessment in type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes status modifies the long-term effect of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 on major coronary events.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity has an independent prognostic association with major coronary events (MCE). However, no study has investigated whether type 2 diabetes status modifies the effect of Lp-PLA2 activity or inhibition on the risk of MCE. We investigate the interaction between diabetes status and Lp-PLA2 activity with risk of MCE. Subsequently, we test the resulting hypothesis that diabetes status will play a role in modifying the efficacy of an Lp-PLA2 inhibitor. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was utilised in two study populations. Discovery analyses were performed in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort based in Scotland, UK. Participants were categorised by type 2 diabetes control status: poorly controlled (HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol or ≥6.5%) and well-controlled (HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol or <6.5%) diabetes (n = 7420). In a secondary analysis of the Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy (STABILITY) trial of Lp-PLA2 inhibitor (darapladib) efficacy, 15,828 participants were stratified post hoc by type 2 diabetes diagnosis status (diabetes or no diabetes) at time of recruitment. Lp-PLA2 activity was then divided into population-specific quartiles. MCE were determined from linked medical records in GoDARTS and trial records in STABILITY. First, the interaction between diabetes control status and Lp-PLA2 activity on the outcome of MCE was explored in GoDARTS. The effect was replicated in the placebo arm of STABILITY. The effect of Lp-PLA2 on MCE was then examined in models stratified by diabetes status. This helped determine participants at higher risk. Finally, the effect of Lp-PLA2 inhibition was assessed in STABILITY in the higher risk group. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used to assess associations. RESULTS: In GoDARTS, a significant interaction between increased Lp-PLA2 activity (continuous and quartile divided) and diabetes control status was observed in the prediction of MCE (p < 0.0001). These effects were replicated in the placebo arm of STABILITY (p < 0.0001). In GoDARTS, stratified analyses showed that, among individuals with poorly controlled diabetes, the hazards of MCE for those with high (Q4) Lp-PLA2 activity was 1.19 compared with individuals with lower (Q1-3) Lp-PLA2 activity (95% CI 1.11, 1.38; p < 0.0001) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16, 1.57; p < 0.0001) when compared with those with the lowest activity (Q1). Those in the higher risk group were identified as individuals with the highest Lp-PLA2 activity (Q4) and poorly controlled diabetes or diabetes. Based on these observations in untreated populations, we hypothesised that the Lp-PLA2 inhibitor would have more benefit in this higher risk group. In this risk group, Lp-PLA2 inhibitor use was associated with a 33% reduction in MCE compared with placebo (HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.50, 0.90]; p = 0.008). In contrast, Lp-PLA2 inhibitor showed no efficacy in individuals with low activity, regardless of diabetes status, or among those with no baseline diabetes and high Lp-PLA2 activity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These results support the hypothesis that diabetes status modifies the association between Lp-PLA2 activity and MCE. These results suggest that cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with Lp-PLA2 activity is especially important in patients with type 2 diabetes, particularly those with worse glycaemic control. Further investigation of the effects of Lp-PLA2 inhibition in diabetes appears warranted. DATA AVAILABILITY: STABILITY trial data are available from clinicaltrials.gov repository through the GlaxoSmithKline clinical study register https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00799903 . GoDARTS datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available following request to the GoDARTS Access Managements Group https://godarts.org/scientific-community/ .