Long-term, basin-scale salinity impacts from desalination in the Arabian/Persian Gulf.

The nations on the shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf are the world's largest users of desalination technologies, which are essential to meet their freshwater needs. Desalinated freshwater production is projected to rapidly increase in future decades. Thus, concerns have been raised that desalination activities may result in non-negligible long-term, basin-wide increases of salinity, which would have widespread detrimental effects on the Gulf marine ecosystems, with ripple effects on fisheries, as well as impacting the desalination activities themselves. We find that current yearly desalinated freshwater production amounts to about 2% of the net yearly evaporation from the Gulf. Projections to 2050 bring this value to 8%, leading to the possibility that, later in the second half of the century, desalinated freshwater production may exceed 10% of net evaporation, an amount which is comparable to interannual fluctuations in net evaporation. With the help of a model we examine several climatological scenarios, and we find that, under IPCC's SSP5-8.5 worst-case scenarios, end-of-century increases in air temperature may result in salinity increases comparable or larger to those produced by desalination activities. The same scenario suggests a reduced evaporation and an increased precipitation, which would have a mitigating effect. Finally we find that, owing to a strong overturning circulation, high-salinity waters are quickly flushed through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, even in the worst-case scenarios, basin-scale salinity increases are unlikely to exceed 1 psu, and, under less extreme hypothesis, will likely remain well below 0.5 psu, levels that have negligible environmental implications at the basin-wide scale.

Correction: Biological control of the Asian chestnut gall wasp in Portugal: Insights from a mathematical model.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254193.].

Biological control of the Asian chestnut gall wasp in Portugal: Insights from a mathematical model.

In recent years, the Asian gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus has invaded chestnut trees and significantly affected the Portuguese chestnut production. Studies in other countries, such as Japan or Italy, have shown that the parasitoid Torymus sinensis can successfully achieve biological control of D. kuriphilus. Mathematical models help us to understand the dynamics of the interaction between the pest D. kuriphilus and its parasitoid T. sinensis and, consequently, they can help to implement measures that enhance crop pest management. In this work, the evolution of the density of D. kuriphilus and T. sinensis across time and space is studied through the numerical solution of models that include parameters based on observations made in Portugal. Simultaneous releases of the parasitoid are simulated at various locations and at different times. The results indicate that, in the case of a small and homogeneous orchard, biological control can be effective, but, in the case of extensive domains, the pest control is much more difficult to achieve. In order for biological control to be efficient, it is necessary to implement, in each chestnut-producing region, a collective strategy based on the annual monitoring of infestation levels.

Coexistence trend contingent to Mediterranean oaks with different leaf habits.

In a previous work we developed a mathematical model to explain the co-occurrence of evergreen and deciduous oak groups in the Mediterranean region, regarded as one of the distinctive features of Mediterranean biodiversity. The mathematical analysis showed that a stabilizing mechanism resulting from niche difference (i.e. different water use and water stress tolerance) between groups allows their coexistence at intermediate values of suitable soil water content. A simple formal derivation of the model expresses this hypothesis in a testable form linked uniquely to the actual evapotranspiration of forests community. In the present work we ascertain whether this simplified conclusion possesses some degree of explanatory power by comparing available data on oaks distributions and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (MODIS product) in a large-scale survey embracing the western Mediterranean area. Our findings confirmed the basic assumptions of model addressed on large scale, but also revealed asymmetric responses to water use and water stress tolerance between evergreen and deciduous oaks that should be taken into account to increase the understating of species interactions and, ultimately, improve the modeling capacity to explain co-occurrence.

Climate change threatens coexistence within communities of Mediterranean forested wetlands.

The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots of climate change. This study aims at understanding what are the conditions sustaining tree diversity in Mediterranean wet forests under future scenarios of altered hydrological regimes. The core of the work is a quantitative, dynamic model describing the coexistence of different Mediterranean tree species, typical of arid or semi-arid wetlands. Two kind of species, i.e. Hygrophilous (drought sensitive, flood resistant) and Non-hygrophilous (drought resistant, flood sensitive), are broadly defined according to the distinct adaptive strategies of trees against water stress of summer drought and winter flooding. We argue that at intermediate levels of water supply the dual role of water (resource and stress) results in the coexistence of the two kind of species. A bifurcation analysis allows us to assess the effects of climate change on the coexistence of the two species in order to highlight the impacts of predicted climate scenarios on tree diversity. Specifically, the model has been applied to Mediterranean coastal swamp forests of Central Italy located at Castelporziano Estate and Circeo National Park. Our results show that there are distinct rainfall thresholds beyond which stable coexistence becomes impossible. Regional climatic projections show that the lower rainfall threshold may be approached or crossed during the XXI century, calling for an urgent adaptation and mitigation response to prevent biodiversity losses.

Clustering of salt fingers in double-diffusive convection leads to staircaselike stratification.

We report on high-resolution, three-dimensional, high Rayleigh number, and low density ratio numerical simulations of fingering convection. We observe a previously unreported phenomenon of self-organization of fingers that cluster together to form larger-scale coherent structures. The flow ultimately forms density staircases, alternating well-mixed regions with fingering convective zones. We give evidence that the mechanical mixing induced by the clusters forms the staircases with a mechanism analogous to staircase formation in a stably stratified, nonconvective, stirred fluid.