A novel application of an adaptable modeling approach to the management of toxic microalgal bloom events in coastal areas.

Harmful algal blooms have been increasing in frequency in recent years, and attention has shifted from describing to modeling and trying to predict these phenomena, since in many cases they pose a risk to human health and coastal activities. Predicting ecological phenomena is often time and resource consuming, since a large number of field collected data are required. We propose a novel approach that involves the use of modeled meteorological data as input features to predict the concentration of the toxic benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata in seawater. Ten meteorological features were used to train a Quantile Random Forests model, which was then validated using field collected concentration data over the course of a summer sampling season. The proposed model was able to accurately describe Ostreopsis abundance in the water column in response to meteorological variables. Furthermore, the predictive power of this model appears good, as indicated by the validation results, especially when the quantile for predictions is tuned to match management requirements. The Quantile Random Forests method was selected, as it allows for greater flexibility in the generated predictions, thus making this model suitable as a tool for coastal management. The application of this approach is novel, as no other models or tools that are adaptable to this degree are currently available. The model presented here was developed for a single species over a limited geographical extension, but its methodological basis appears flexible enough to be applied to the prediction of HABs in general and it could also be extended to the case of other ecological phenomena that are strongly dependent on meteorological drivers, that can be independently modeled and potentially globally available.

Ocean acidification has little effect on developmental thermal windows of echinoderms from Antarctica to the tropics.

As the ocean warms, thermal tolerance of developmental stages may be a key driver of changes in the geographical distributions and abundance of marine invertebrates. Additional stressors such as ocean acidification may influence developmental thermal windows and are therefore important considerations for predicting distributions of species under climate change scenarios. The effects of reduced seawater pH on the thermal windows of fertilization, embryology and larval morphology were examined using five echinoderm species: two polar (Sterechinus neumayeri and Odontaster validus), two temperate (Fellaster zelandiae and Patiriella regularis) and one tropical (Arachnoides placenta). Responses were examined across 12-13 temperatures ranging from -1.1 °C to 5.7 °C (S. neumayeri), -0.5 °C to 10.7 °C (O. validus), 5.8 °C to 27 °C (F. zelandiae), 6.0 °C to 27.1 °C (P. regularis) and 13.9 °C to 34.8 °C (A. placenta) under present-day and near-future (2100+) ocean acidification conditions (-0.3 pH units) and for three important early developmental stages 1) fertilization, 2) embryo (prehatching) and 3) larval development. Thermal windows for fertilization were broad and were not influenced by a pH decrease. Embryological development was less thermotolerant. For O. validus, P. regularis and A. placenta, low pH reduced normal development, albeit with no effect on thermal windows. Larval development in all five species was affected by both temperature and pH; however, thermal tolerance was not reduced by pH. Results of this study suggest that in terms of fertilization and development, temperature will remain as the most important factor influencing species' latitudinal distributions as the ocean continues to warm and decrease in pH, and that there is little evidence of a synergistic effect of temperature and ocean acidification on the thermal control of species ranges.

Effects of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata on different life cycle stages of the common moon jellyfish Aurelia sp.

The frequency and geographic extension of microalgae and gelatinous zooplankton blooms seem to have been increasing worldwide over recent decades. In particular, the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata and the Schyphozoan jellyfish Aurelia sp. are two of the most frequent and long lasting species forming blooms in the Mediterranean Sea. A kind of interaction among any of their life cycle stages (i.e. planula-polyp-ephyrae vs Ostreopsis cells) can likely occur, although in this area there are no data available on the co-occurrence of these species. The aim of this study was to investigate, for the first time, the potential noxious effect of O. cf. ovata on different life stages of Aurelia sp. (polyps and ephyrae), testing several concentrations of whole algal culture. Rsults of toxicity bioassay highlighted that ephyrae, but not polyps, are affected by this harmful dinoflagellate and comparisons among other model organisms show that Aurelia sp. ephyrae are the most sensitive model organism tested so far (EC50-24h=10.5cells/mL). These findings suggest an interesting scenario on the interaction of these two bloom forming species in the natural marine environment.

Impacts of ocean acidification on early life-history stages and settlement of the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster planci.

Coral reefs are marine biodiversity hotspots, but their existence is threatened by global change and local pressures such as land-runoff and overfishing. Population explosions of coral-eating crown of thorns sea stars (COTS) are a major contributor to recent decline in coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef. Here, we investigate how projected near-future ocean acidification (OA) conditions can affect early life history stages of COTS, by investigating important milestones including sperm motility, fertilisation rates, and larval development and settlement. OA (increased pCO2 to 900-1200 µatm pCO2) significantly reduced sperm motility and, to a lesser extent, velocity, which strongly reduced fertilization rates at environmentally relevant sperm concentrations. Normal development of 10 d old larvae was significantly lower under elevated pCO2 but larval size was not significantly different between treatments. Settlement of COTS larvae was significantly reduced on crustose coralline algae (known settlement inducers of COTS) that had been exposed to OA conditions for 85 d prior to settlement assays. Effect size analyses illustrated that reduced settlement may be the largest bottleneck for overall juvenile production. Results indicate that reductions in fertilisation and settlement success alone would reduce COTS population replenishment by over 50%. However, it is unlikely that this effect is sufficient to provide respite for corals from other negative anthropogenic impacts and direct stress from OA and warming on corals.