Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication.

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) is a multi-host pathogen with sheep and goats as main hosts. To investigate the role of cattle in the epidemiology of PPR, we simulated conditions similar to East African zero-grazing husbandry practices in a series of trials with local Zebu cattle (Bos taurus indicus) co-housed with goats (Capra aegagrus hircus). Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of PPRV-transmission from cattle to goats. Of the 32 cattle intranasally infected with the locally endemic lineage IV strain PPRV/Ethiopia/Habru/2014 none transmitted PPRV to 32 co-housed goats. However, these cattle or cattle co-housed with PPRV-infected goats seroconverted. The results confirm previous studies that cattle currently play a negligible role in PPRV-transmission and small ruminant vaccination is sufficient for eradication. However, the possible emergence of PPRV strains more virulent for cattle may impact eradication. Therefore, continued monitoring of PPRV circulation and evolution is recommended.

Cost-benefit analysis of intervention reducing young stock mortality in Ethiopia.

Livestock provide meat, milk, draught labour, are used for breeding, and act as a store of value for smallholder farmers. High young stock mortality (YSM) has the potential to cause significant financial loss. The Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium collaborated on a project to deliver a package of basic health and husbandry interventions to reduce YSM for cattle and small ruminants in mixed and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Prior to the intervention, YSM rates ranged from 9.8% for calves in mixed systems, to 35.6% for small ruminants in pastoral systems. Proportional reductions YSM from the intervention ranged from 60% for calves and for small ruminants in mixed systems, to 72% for calves in pastoral systems. This brief research report assesses the costs and benefits of the intervention ex-poste to determine its efficiency. NPVs for the intervention (per household) were calculated for a range of benefit periods (from 1 to 20 years), based on the cost of training enumerators and farmers and the net annual household benefits realised within each benefit period. We found in both pastoral and mixed systems the net annual household benefit for the intervention was positive. For pastoral households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 2 years. For mixed households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 11 years. Overall, we found the benefits of the intervention exceed the costs, by a very large amount in pastoral systems, and that benefits were larger for households that kept larger numbers of breeding females.

Systematic map of recent evidence on reproductive performance of cattle in Africa.

Good cattle reproductive performance is essential for livestock productivity. Farmers are highly dependent on the success of productive outputs to support their livelihoods. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, optimal reproduction of cows and bulls is comparatively less well defined, with information on key reproductive parameters and reproductive management often not available. The aim of this study was to collate and synthesise the recent published evidence on cattle reproductive performance in selected sub-Saharan countries.Systematic mapping methodology was used, with searches conducted for both cow and bull reproductive performance in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, for the period 2012-2022, in English language. Search returns were screened for relevance at title and abstract, and full-text levels, based on the research question criteria.A substantial number of studies were identified for cows (n = 133), but only very few for bulls (n = 11). A large proportion of reported studies have been conducted in Ethiopia, with relatively few from the other countries, and most studies published between 2014 and 2016, and in 2021. Certain reproductive parameters received more attention than others; calving interval was reported in 86 studies, while culling due to infertility was reported in eight studies.The study highlights where research is being conducted in this area, and importantly where there is a gap, in particular on bull reproductive performance. While there were a range of values reported for cow reproductive parameters, the values were reasonable, indicating that it is possible to have good reproductive performance in LMICs. The synthesis of studies in the map should help to inform farmers and their advisors, at farm and national levels.

Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football.

The aim of this study was to create a novel metric, Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT), that could evaluate possession retention from player-passing events in football. Event and positional data were analysed from all 380 matches in the 2020/21 English Premier League season, which encompassed 256,433 passes in the final dataset. A logistic mixed-effects model was implemented to attribute the probability of each pass getting turned over. The use of positional data enabled the identification of a) opposition players present in radii surrounding the ball carrier and b) availability of teammates with respect to the ball carrier. The addition of these positional features improved the accuracy (+6.1 AUC Score) of the model. xPT serves as a practitioner Key Performance Indicator, as analysts can identify players that lose possession more often or not than expected, given the situational context of each pass, from game to game. Future work may include modelling the turnover probability of dribble and carry actions, as this would lead to a more comprehensive understanding of turnover events in football.

Investigation of Polymer-Asphalt Compatibility Using Molecular Dynamics Simulation.

Polymer modification is a promising approach to enhancing the performance of asphalt binders. However, a major issue plaguing polymer mixing with asphalt is the phase separation of these two components post-mixing. In the field of polymer science, the Flory-Huggins theory has been long established as the way to describe the conditions under which a mixture is stable or unstable. This Flory-Huggins interaction parameter χ and the molecular weights of the components are required under this theory. This work uses molecular dynamics simulations to calculate χ between various polymers found in waste plastics and asphalt. The compatibility of these polymers with the asphalt binder is discussed as a function of binder composition, molecular weight, and temperature. Four common polymers (polyethylene, polystyrene, polypropylene, and polybutadiene) were tested. While none of the polymers showed good compatibility with asphalt, PE was the most compatible. Stable compatibilization of plastics with asphalt will require additives or chemical modification of the plastic.

Echocardiographic parameters associated with less reverse left ventricular remodeling after transcatheter aortic valve implant in subjects with prosthesis patient mismatch.

BACKGROUND: Transaortic valve implant (TAVI) is the treatment of choice for severe aortic stenosis (AS). Some patients develop prosthesis patient mismatch (PPM) after TAVI. It is challenging to determine which patients are at risk for clinical deterioration. METHODS: We retrospectively measured echocardiographic parameters of left ventricular (LV) morphology and function, prosthetic aortic valve effective orifice area (iEOA) and hemodynamics in 313 patients before and 1 year after TAVI. Our objective was to compare the change in echocardiographic parameters associated with left ventricular reverse modeling in subjects with and without PPM. Our secondary objective was to evaluate echo parameters associated with PPM and the relationship to patient functional status and survival post-TAVI. RESULTS: We found that 82 (26.2%) of subjects had moderate and 37 (11.8%) had severe PPM post-TAVI. There was less relative improvement in LVEF with PPM (1.9 ± 21.3% vs. 8.2 + 30.1%, p = .045). LV GLS also exhibited less relative improvement in those with PPM (13.4 + 34.1% vs. 30.9 + 73.3%, p = .012). NYHA functional class improved in 84.3% of subjects by one grade or more. Echocardiographic markers of PPM were worse in those without improvement in NYHA class (mean AT/ET was .29 vs. .27, p = .05; DVI was .46 vs. .51, p = .021; and iEOA was .8 cm/m2 vs. .9 cm/m2 , p = .025). There was no association with PPM and survival. CONCLUSIONS: There was no improvement in LVEF and less improvement in LV GLS in those with PPM post-TAVI. Echocardiographic markers of PPM were present in those with lack of improvement in NYHA functional class.

Hidden Y Chromosome Material and Congenital Cardiovascular Malformations in a Cohort of Turner Syndrome Patients with 45,X Blood Karyotype.

INTRODUCTION: Bicuspid aortic valve is the most common congenital cardiac malformation (CCM) in adults and is 30-50 times more frequent in Turner syndrome (TS). We hypothesize that both X and Y chromosome dosages contribute to the prevalence of CCM in TS. The recognition of genotype-phenotype correlations may improve risk stratification of patients with 45,X karyotypes who have cryptic Y chromosome mosaicism. METHODS: Utilizing data and samples from the UTHealth Turner Syndrome Research Registry, we correlated Y chromosome DNA identified by multiplex quantitative PCR and SNP microarrays with the presence of congenital heart lesions. RESULTS: We identified Y chromosome DNA in more than 10% of registry participants, including 2 participants who had no detectable Y DNA by karyotype or SNP microarray. CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant correlations between the presence of Y DNA and CCM.

Australasian Pigeon Circoviruses Demonstrate Natural Spillover Infection.

Pigeon circovirus (PiCV) is considered to be genetically diverse, with a relatively small circular single-stranded DNA genome of 2 kb that encodes for a capsid protein (Cap) and a replication initiator protein (Rep). Australasia is known to be the origin of diverse species of the Order Columbiformes, but limited data on the PiCV genome sequence has hindered phylogeographic studies in this species. To fill this gap, this study was conducted to investigate PiCV in 118 characteristic samples from different birds across Australia using PCR and sequencing. Eighteen partial PiCV Rep sequences and one complete PiCV genome sequence were recovered from reservoir and aberrant hosts. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that PiCV circulating in Australia was scattered across three different subclades. Importantly, one subclade dominated within the PiCV sequenced from Australia and Poland, whereas other PiCV sequenced in this study were more closely related to the PiCV sequenced from China, USA and Japan. In addition, PiCV Rep sequences obtained from clinically affected plumed whistling duck, blue billed duck and Australian magpie demonstrated natural spillover of PiCV unveiled host generalist characteristics of the pigeon circovirus. These findings indicate that PiCV genomes circulating in Australia lack host adapted population structure but demonstrate natural spillover infection.

Interventions to reduce camel and small ruminant young stock morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia.

Morbidity and mortality of young stock is a challenge for livestock producers globally. In Ethiopia, where camels and small ruminants (sheep and goats) are essential smallholder and pastoral livestock, young stock losses can cause severe consequences to livelihoods. This pilot study, part of a Government-led Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium project, was undertaken to identify and evaluate interventions to reduce young stock mortality in mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Pastoralists and mixed crop-livestock farmers were enrolled by convenience sampling across four regions. Households were sampled with questionnaire surveys to establish baseline mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease in animals younger than one year, and followed longitudinally over a one-year period, with final evaluations conducted from March to July 2020. Mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease before and after implementation were compared using Poisson regression models including household as random effect. Prior to intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease across production systems in the different households was 0.4, 0.44 and 0.2, respectively. This compared to median pastoralist small ruminant mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease of 0.45, 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. Post-intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease dropped to 0.1, 0.08 and 0. Similarly, more than half of the small ruminant households reported no mortality, and no cases of diarrhoea or respiratory disease. In camels, rate ratios of mortality risk, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease post-intervention compared to the baseline were 0.41, 0.41 and 0.37. In small ruminants, rate ratios were 0.33, 0.35 and 0.46. All reductions were statistically significant (p < 0.01). Generally, pastoralists experienced higher mortality and disease prevalence compared to mixed crop-livestock smallholders, and the effect of intervention was slightly higher in pastoralist households. The pilot study findings demonstrated highly significant reductions in mortality and risk of diarrhoea and respiratory disease post-interventions. However, not all households benefitted from the interventions, with a few households reporting increased mortality and morbidity. Many households had very few animals which made it challenging to measure impact and the study was conducted over a single year, without a control group, so between year effects could not be accounted for in the reductions observed. These findings should contribute to improved livestock productivity in Ethiopia.

Somatic mutations inferred from RNA-seq data highlight the contribution of replication timing to mutation rate variation in a model plant.

Variation in the rates and characteristics of germline and somatic mutations across the genome of an organism is informative about DNA damage and repair processes and can also shed light on aspects of organism physiology and evolution. We adapted a recently developed method for inferring somatic mutations from bulk RNA-seq data and applied it to a large collection of Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. The wide range of genomic data types available for A. thaliana enabled us to investigate the relationships of multiple genomic features with the variation in the somatic mutation rate across the genome of this model plant. We observed that late replicated regions showed evidence of an elevated rate of somatic mutation compared to genomic regions that are replicated early. We identified transcriptional strand asymmetries, consistent with the effects of transcription-coupled damage and/or repair. We also observed a negative relationship between the inferred somatic mutation count and the H3K36me3 histone mark which is well documented in the literature of human systems. In addition, we were able to support previous reports of an inverse relationship between inferred somatic mutation count and guanine-cytosine content as well as a positive relationship between inferred somatic mutation count and DNA methylation for both cytosine and noncytosine mutations.

A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives.

Introduction: A fundamental challenge for charities that facilitate distribution of animal health products to small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is identifying the products and market mechanisms that provide the greatest positive impact for SSPs and estimating their associated impact. This paper describes a pragmatic approach to modeling the impact of market-led product distribution initiatives based on estimating the net economic benefit of administration of animal health products. Methods: The model estimates the economic impact of diseases at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. The economic impact of mortality and growth inhibition associated with disease are then estimated in conjunction with the losses averted or recovered by preventing or treating the disease. Economic benefit is estimated in 2014-2017 values and also adjusted to 2023 values. The flexible model structure allows for addition of new geographies, new products, and increased granularity of modeled production systems. Results: Applied to the Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines (GALVmed) product distribution initiatives conducted in Africa and South Asia (SA) between 2014 and 2017, the model estimates an adjusted total net economic benefit of 139.9 million USD from sales of vaccines and poultry anthelminthics in these initiatives. Within SSA, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from East Coast fever and Newcastle disease vaccines, while in SA, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits. This translated to an adjusted $37.97 of net economic benefit on average per SSP customer, many of whom were small poultry producers. Discussion: While the model currently estimates impacts from mortality and growth inhibition in livestock, there is the potential to extend it to cover impacts of further initiatives, including interventions targeted at diseases that impact production of milk, eggs, and reproduction.

Relationship between left atrial reservoir strain, volumes, and geometry: Insights from simple theoretical model.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) volume is related to LA reservoir strain (LASR ), but the relationship is not fully resolved. We sought to model the relationship between LA end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes (LAEDV and LAESV) and LASR based on a geometrical approach to exploit the relationship between LASR and volume. METHODS: Modeling the LA as a hemisphere with radius r, LASR was recognized to vary linearly with r and LA volume with r3 . Expanding this cubic relation as a Taylor series resulted in a simple linear equation: LAESV/LAEDV = 1 + 3 × LASR . To validate this, 52 transthoracic echocardiograms were analyzed from 18 patients who underwent transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) with MitraClip with serial assessment pre-procedure, 1 month post-clip, and 12 months post-TEER. Linear regression was performed to compare the geometric equation to a statistical model created by a line of best fit to relate LAESV/LAEDV to LASR . RESULTS: The statistical and geometric model both resulted in a strong correlation (r = .8, p < .001, respectively). The slope of the line in the statistical model was 3.3, which was statistically indistinguishable from the expected slope of 3 based on the geometric model (Figure 2A). Using the geometric model to compare the measured versus calculated LAESV/LAEDV also resulted in a strong correlation (r = .8, p < .001)(Figure 2B). CONCLUSION: We describe the relationship between LA volume and strain mathematically by considering the geometry of the LA. This model enhances our understanding of the interaction between atrial strain and volume. Further research is necessary to validate this using 3D atrial volumes in a broader cohort of subjects.

Refusal of Representation in Advance Care Planning: A Case-Inspired Ethical Analysis.

Unrepresented patients-people without capacity to make medical decisions who also lack a surrogate decision-maker-form a large and vulnerable population within the United States health care system. The burden of unrepresentedness has rightly prompted widespread calls for more and better advance care planning, in which still-healthy patients are encouraged to designate a surrogate decision-maker and thus avoid the risk of becoming unrepresented. However, we observe that some patients, even with available social contacts and access to adequate advance care planning services, simply decline to name a surrogate decision-maker. We propose a novel concept of "informed refusal of representation" ("IRR") to characterize the position held by some such patients, who are often overlooked in prior work on unrepresentedness. We then discuss physicians' ethical obligations in the face of such a refusal and avenues by which physicians can support patients without surrogates in receiving goal-concordant care.

Implementation of probe rheology simulation technique in atomistically detailed molecular dynamics simulations.

The probe rheology simulation technique is a technique for measuring the viscosity of a fluid by measuring the motion of an inserted probe particle. This approach has the benefit of greater potential accuracy at a lower computational cost than other conventional simulation techniques used for the calculation of mechanical properties, such as the Green-Kubo approach and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, and the potential to allow for sampling local variations of properties. This approach is implemented and demonstrated for atomistically detailed models. The viscosity of four different simple Newtonian liquids is calculated from both the Brownian motion (passive mode) and the forced motion (active mode) of an embedded probe particle. The probe particle is loosely modeled as a nano-sized diamond particle: a rough sphere cut out of an FCC lattice made of carbon atoms. The viscosities obtained from the motion of the probe particle are compared with those obtained from the periodic perturbation method, and good agreement between the two sets of values is observed once the probe-fluid interaction strength (i.e., ε ij in the pair-wise Lennard-Jones interaction) is two times higher than their original values, and the artificial hydrodynamic interactions between the probe particle and its periodic images are accounted for. The success of the proposed model opens new opportunities for applying such a technique in the rheological characterization of local mechanical properties in atomistically detailed molecular dynamics simulations, which can be directly compared with or help guide experiments of similar nature.

Systematic map of the most recent evidence (2010-2019) on ruminant production-limiting disease prevalence and associated mortality in Ethiopia.

Background: Ethiopia's livestock sector supports the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. However, despite the improvements of recent years, livestock productivity remains low due to critical constraints, including infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to collate and synthesize the published evidence on ruminant disease frequency and disease-associated mortality in Ethiopia, by identifying knowledge gaps and clusters in the literature to provide the basis for a decision-making tool. Methods: Searches on both bibliographic and organization databases were conducted in English and were restricted to the period 2010-2019. Search results were screened for relevance at title, abstract and full text level. Results: There were 716 articles identified relevant to the research question. The systematic map revealed an increased publication output from 2012-2017, compared to 2010-2011 and 2018-2019. Most studies were conducted in Oromia, Amhara and SNNPR. A substantial body of evidence was found for trypanosomosis, ectoparasite infestation, fasciolosis, nematodiasis, echinococcosis, and brucellosis. Conclusion: This study suggests that despite the high output of epidemiological publications, further understanding of a considerable number of diseases is required and where evidence is abundant, synthesis of information should be carried out in order to better inform decisions on disease control priorities in the livestock sector.