Complex and highly saturated soundscapes in restored oak woodlands reflect avian richness and abundance.

Temperate woodlands are biodiverse natural communities threatened by land use change and fire suppression. Excluding historic disturbance regimes of periodic groundfires from woodlands causes degradation, resulting from changes in the plant community and subsequent biodiversity loss. Restoration, through prescribed fire and tree thinning, can reverse biodiversity losses, however, because the diversity of woodland species spans many taxa, efficiently quantifying biodiversity can be challenging. We assessed whether soundscapes in an eastern North American woodland reflect biodiversity changes during restoration measured in a concurrent multitrophic field study. In five restored and five degraded woodland sites in Wisconsin, USA, we sampled vegetation, measured arthropod biomass, conducted bird surveys, and recorded soundscapes for five days of every 15-day period from May to August 2022. We calculated two complementary acoustic indices: Soundscape Saturation, which focuses on all acoustically active species, and Acoustic Complexity Index (ACI), which was developed to study vocalizing birds. We used generalized additive models to predict both indices based on Julian date, time of day, and level of habitat degradation. We found that restored woodlands had higher arthropod biomass, and higher richness and abundance of breeding birds. Additionally, soundscapes in restored sites had higher mean Soundscape Saturation and higher mean ACI. Restored woodland acoustic indices exhibited greater magnitudes of daily and seasonal peaks. We conclude that woodland restoration results in higher soundscape saturation and complexity, due to greater richness and abundance of vocalizing animals. This bioacoustic signature of restoration offers a promising monitoring tool for efficiently documenting differences in woodland biodiversity.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications.

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

Rising wildfire risk to houses in the United States, especially in grasslands and shrublands.

Wildfire risks to homes are increasing, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where wildland vegetation and houses are in close proximity. Notably, we found that more houses are exposed to and destroyed by grassland and shrubland fires than by forest fires in the United States. Destruction was more likely in forest fires, but they burned less WUI. The number of houses within wildfire perimeters has doubled since the 1990s because of both housing growth (47% of additionally exposed houses) and more burned area (53%). Most exposed houses were in the WUI, which grew substantially during the 2010s (2.6 million new WUI houses), albeit not as rapidly as before. Any WUI growth increases wildfire risk to houses though, and more fires increase the risk to existing WUI houses.

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts.

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Mapping breeding bird species richness at management-relevant resolutions across the United States.

Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992-2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.

Forest phenoclusters for Argentina based on vegetation phenology and climate.

Forest biodiversity conservation and species distribution modeling greatly benefit from broad-scale forest maps depicting tree species or forest types rather than just presence and absence of forest, or coarse classifications. Ideally, such maps would stem from satellite image classification based on abundant field data for both model training and accuracy assessments, but such field data do not exist in many parts of the globe. However, different forest types and tree species differ in their vegetation phenology, offering an opportunity to map and characterize forests based on the seasonal dynamic of vegetation indices and auxiliary data. Our goal was to map and characterize forests based on both land surface phenology and climate patterns, defined here as forest phenoclusters. We applied our methodology in Argentina (2.8 million km2 ), which has a wide variety of forests, from rainforests to cold-temperate forests. We calculated phenology measures after fitting a harmonic curve of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series derived from 30-m Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 data from 2018-2019. For climate, we calculated land surface temperature (LST) from Band 10 of the thermal infrared sensor (TIRS) of Landsat 8, and precipitation from Worldclim (BIO12). We performed stratified X-means cluster classifications followed by hierarchical clustering. The resulting clusters separated well into 54 forest phenoclusters with unique combinations of vegetation phenology and climate characteristics. The EVI 90th percentile was more important than our climate and other phenology measures in providing separability among different forest phenoclusters. Our results highlight the potential of combining remotely sensed phenology measures and climate data to improve broad-scale forest mapping for different management and conservation goals, capturing functional rather than structural or compositional characteristics between and within tree species. Our approach results in classifications that go beyond simple forest-nonforest in areas where the lack of detailed ecological field data precludes tree species-level classifications, yet conservation needs are high. Our map of forest phenoclusters is a valuable tool for the assessment of natural resources, and the management of the environment at scales relevant for conservation actions.

Habitat heterogeneity captured by 30-m resolution satellite image texture predicts bird richness across the United States.

Species loss is occurring globally at unprecedented rates, and effective conservation planning requires an understanding of landscape characteristics that determine biodiversity patterns. Habitat heterogeneity is an important determinant of species diversity, but is difficult to measure across large areas using field-based methods that are costly and logistically challenging. Satellite image texture analysis offers a cost-effective alternative for quantifying habitat heterogeneity across broad spatial scales. We tested the ability of texture measures derived from 30-m resolution Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data to capture habitat heterogeneity and predict bird species richness across the conterminous United States. We used Landsat 8 satellite imagery from 2013-2017 to derive a suite of texture measures characterizing vegetation heterogeneity. Individual texture measures explained up to 21% of the variance in bird richness patterns in North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data during the same time period. Texture measures were positively related to total breeding bird richness, but this relationship varied among forest, grassland, and shrubland habitat specialists. Multiple texture measures combined with mean EVI explained up to 41% of the variance in total bird richness, and models including EVI-based texture measures explained up to 10% more variance than those that included only EVI. Models that also incorporated topographic and land cover metrics further improved predictive performance, explaining up to 51% of the variance in total bird richness. A texture measure contributed predictive power and characterized landscape features that EVI and forest cover alone could not, even though the latter two were overall more important variables. Our results highlight the potential of texture measures for mapping habitat heterogeneity and species richness patterns across broad spatial extents, especially when used in conjunction with vegetation indices or land cover data. By generating 30-m resolution texture maps and modeling bird richness at a near-continental scale, we expand on previous applications of image texture measures for modeling biodiversity that were either limited in spatial extent or based on coarse-resolution imagery. Incorporating texture measures into broad-scale biodiversity models may advance our understanding of mechanisms underlying species richness patterns and improve predictions of species responses to rapid global change.

Vegetation productivity summarized by the Dynamic Habitat Indices explains broad-scale patterns of moose abundance across Russia.

Identifying the factors that determine habitat suitability and hence patterns of wildlife abundances over broad spatial scales is important for conservation. Ecosystem productivity is a key aspect of habitat suitability, especially for large mammals. Our goals were to a) explain patterns of moose (Alces alces) abundance across Russia based on remotely sensed measures of vegetation productivity using Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), and b) examine if patterns of moose abundance and productivity differed before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We evaluated the utility of the DHIs using multiple regression models predicting moose abundance by administrative regions. Univariate models of the individual DHIs had lower predictive power than all three combined. The three DHIs together with environmental variables, explained 79% of variation in moose abundance. Interestingly, the predictive power of the models was highest for the 1980s, and decreased for the two subsequent decades. We speculate that the lower predictive power of our environmental variables in the later decades may be due to increasing human influence on moose densities. Overall, we were able to explain patterns in moose abundance in Russia well, which can inform wildlife managers on the long-term patterns of habitat use of the species.

Future changes in fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs across U.S. National Forests and Grasslands.

Public lands provide many ecosystem services and support diverse plant and animal communities. In order to provide these benefits in the future, land managers and policy makers need information about future climate change and its potential effects. In particular, weather extremes are key drivers of wildfires, droughts, and false springs, which in turn can have large impacts on ecosystems. However, information on future changes in weather extremes on public lands is lacking. Our goal was to compare historical (1950-2005) and projected mid-century (2041-2070) changes in weather extremes (fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs) on public lands. This case study looked at the lands managed by the U.S. Forest Service across the conterminous United States including 501 ranger district units. We analyzed downscaled projections of daily records from 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 General Circulation Models for two climate scenarios, with either medium-low or high CO2 - equivalent concentration (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). For each ranger district, we estimated: (1) fire potential, using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index; (2) frequency of spring droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Index; and (3) frequency of false springs, using the extended Spring Indices. We found that future climates could substantially alter weather conditions across Forest Service lands. Under the two climate scenarios, increases in wildfire potential, spring droughts, and false springs were projected in 32-72%, 28-29%, and 13-16% of all ranger districts, respectively. Moreover, a substantial number of ranger districts (17-30%), especially in the Southwestern, Pacific Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions, were projected to see increases in more than one type of weather extreme, which may require special management attention. We suggest that future changes in weather extremes could threaten the ability of public lands to provide ecosystem services and ecological benefits to society. Overall, our results highlight the value of spatially-explicit weather projections to assess future changes in key weather extremes for land managers and policy makers.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

Opportunities for the application of advanced remotely-sensed data in ecological studies of terrestrial animal movement.

Animal movement patterns in space and time are a central aspect of animal ecology. Remotely-sensed environmental indices can play a key role in understanding movement patterns by providing contiguous, relatively fine-scale data that link animal movements to their environment. Still, implementation of newly available remotely-sensed data is often delayed in studies of animal movement, calling for a better flow of information to researchers less familiar with remotely-sensed data applications. Here, we reviewed the application of remotely-sensed environmental indices to infer movement patterns of animals in terrestrial systems in studies published between 2002 and 2013. Next, we introduced newly available remotely-sensed products, and discussed their opportunities for animal movement studies. Studies of coarse-scale movement mostly relied on satellite data representing plant phenology or climate and weather. Studies of small-scale movement frequently used land cover data based on Landsat imagery or aerial photographs. Greater documentation of the type and resolution of remotely-sensed products in ecological movement studies would enhance their usefulness. Recent advancements in remote sensing technology improve assessments of temporal dynamics of landscapes and the three-dimensional structures of habitats, enabling near real-time environmental assessment. Online movement databases that now integrate remotely-sensed data facilitate access to remotely-sensed products for movement ecologists. We recommend that animal movement studies incorporate remotely-sensed products that provide time series of environmental response variables. This would facilitate wildlife management and conservation efforts, as well as the predictive ability of movement analyses. Closer collaboration between ecologists and remote sensing experts could considerably alleviate the implementation gap. Ecologists should not expect that indices derived from remotely-sensed data will be directly analogous to field-collected data and need to critically consider which remotely-sensed product is best suited for a given analysis.

The rise of novelty in ecosystems.

Rapid and ongoing change creates novelty in ecosystems everywhere, both when comparing contemporary systems to their historical baselines, and predicted future systems to the present. However, the level of novelty varies greatly among places. Here we propose a formal and quantifiable definition of abiotic and biotic novelty in ecosystems, map abiotic novelty globally, and discuss the implications of novelty for the science of ecology and for biodiversity conservation. We define novelty as the degree of dissimilarity of a system, measured in one or more dimensions relative to a reference baseline, usually defined as either the present or a time window in the past. In this conceptualization, novelty varies in degree, it is multidimensional, can be measured, and requires a temporal and spatial reference. This definition moves beyond prior categorical definitions of novel ecosystems, and does not include human agency, self-perpetuation, or irreversibility as criteria. Our global assessment of novelty was based on abiotic factors (temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) plus human population, and shows that there are already large areas with high novelty today relative to the early 20th century, and that there will even be more such areas by 2050. Interestingly, the places that are most novel are often not the places where absolute changes are largest; highlighting that novelty is inherently different from change. For the ecological sciences, highly novel ecosystems present new opportunities to test ecological theories, but also challenge the predictive ability of ecological models and their validation. For biodiversity conservation, increasing novelty presents some opportunities, but largely challenges. Conservation action is necessary along the entire continuum of novelty, by redoubling efforts to protect areas where novelty is low, identifying conservation opportunities where novelty is high, developing flexible yet strong regulations and policies, and establishing long-term experiments to test management approaches. Meeting the challenge of novelty will require advances in the science of ecology, and new and creative. conservation approaches.

BIOFRAG - a new database for analyzing BIOdiversity responses to forest FRAGmentation.

Habitat fragmentation studies have produced complex results that are challenging to synthesize. Inconsistencies among studies may result from variation in the choice of landscape metrics and response variables, which is often compounded by a lack of key statistical or methodological information. Collating primary datasets on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in a consistent and flexible database permits simple data retrieval for subsequent analyses. We present a relational database that links such field data to taxonomic nomenclature, spatial and temporal plot attributes, and environmental characteristics. Field assessments include measurements of the response(s) (e.g., presence, abundance, ground cover) of one or more species linked to plots in fragments within a partially forested landscape. The database currently holds 9830 unique species recorded in plots of 58 unique landscapes in six of eight realms: mammals 315, birds 1286, herptiles 460, insects 4521, spiders 204, other arthropods 85, gastropods 70, annelids 8, platyhelminthes 4, Onychophora 2, vascular plants 2112, nonvascular plants and lichens 320, and fungi 449. Three landscapes were sampled as long-term time series (>10 years). Seven hundred and eleven species are found in two or more landscapes. Consolidating the substantial amount of primary data available on biodiversity responses to fragmentation in the context of land-use change and natural disturbances is an essential part of understanding the effects of increasing anthropogenic pressures on land. The consistent format of this database facilitates testing of generalizations concerning biologic responses to fragmentation across diverse systems and taxa. It also allows the re-examination of existing datasets with alternative landscape metrics and robust statistical methods, for example, helping to address pseudo-replication problems. The database can thus help researchers in producing broad syntheses of the effects of land use. The database is dynamic and inclusive, and contributions from individual and large-scale data-collection efforts are welcome.

Systematic temporal patterns in the relationship between housing development and forest bird biodiversity.

As people encroach increasingly on natural areas, one question is how this affects avian biodiversity. The answer to this is partly scale-dependent. At broad scales, human populations and biodiversity concentrate in the same areas and are positively associated, but at local scales people and biodiversity are negatively associated with biodiversity. We investigated whether there is also a systematic temporal trend in the relationship between bird biodiversity and housing development. We used linear regression to examine associations between forest bird species richness and housing growth in the conterminous United States over 30 years. Our data sources were the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the 2000 decennial U.S. Census. In the 9 largest forested ecoregions, housing density increased continually over time. Across the conterminous United States, the association between bird species richness and housing density was positive for virtually all guilds except ground nesting birds. We found a systematic trajectory of declining bird species richness as housing increased through time. In more recently developed ecoregions, where housing density was still low, the association with bird species richness was neutral or positive. In ecoregions that were developed earlier and where housing density was highest, the association of housing density with bird species richness for most guilds was negative and grew stronger with advancing decades. We propose that in general the relationship between human settlement and biodiversity over time unfolds as a 2-phase process. The first phase is apparently innocuous; associations are positive due to coincidence of low-density housing with high biodiversity. The second phase is highly detrimental to biodiversity, and increases in housing density are associated with biodiversity losses. The long-term effect on biodiversity depends on the final housing density. This general pattern can help unify our understanding of the relationship of human encroachment and biodiversity response.

Modelling avian biodiversity using raw, unclassified satellite imagery.

Applications of remote sensing for biodiversity conservation typically rely on image classifications that do not capture variability within coarse land cover classes. Here, we compare two measures derived from unclassified remotely sensed data, a measure of habitat heterogeneity and a measure of habitat composition, for explaining bird species richness and the spatial distribution of 10 species in a semi-arid landscape of New Mexico. We surveyed bird abundance from 1996 to 1998 at 42 plots located in the McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Army Reserve. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values of two May 1997 Landsat scenes were the basis for among-pixel habitat heterogeneity (image texture), and we used the raw imagery to decompose each pixel into different habitat components (spectral mixture analysis). We used model averaging to relate measures of avian biodiversity to measures of image texture and spectral mixture analysis fractions. Measures of habitat heterogeneity, particularly angular second moment and standard deviation, provide higher explanatory power for bird species richness and the abundance of most species than measures of habitat composition. Using image texture, alone or in combination with other classified imagery-based approaches, for monitoring statuses and trends in biological diversity can greatly improve conservation efforts and habitat management.

Housing development erodes avian community structure in U.S. protected areas.

Protected areas are a cornerstone for biodiversity conservation, but they also provide amenities that attract housing development on inholdings and adjacent private lands. We explored how this development affects biodiversity within and near protected areas among six ecological regions throughout the United States. We quantified the effect of housing density within, at the boundary, and outside protected areas, and natural land cover within protected areas, on the proportional abundance and proportional richness of three avian guilds within protected areas. We developed three guilds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which included Species of Greatest Conservation Need, land cover affiliates (e.g., forest breeders), and synanthropic species associated with urban environments. We gathered housing density data for the year 2000 from the U.S. Census Bureau, and centered the bird data on this year. We obtained land cover data from the 2001 National Land Cover Database, and we used single- and multiple-variable analyses to address our research question. In all regions, housing density within protected areas was positively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of synanthropes, and negatively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of Species of Greatest Conservation Need. These relationships were strongest in the eastern forested regions and the central grasslands, where more than 70% and 45%, respectively, of the variation in the proportional abundance of synanthropes and Species of Greatest Conservation Need were explained by housing within protected areas. Furthermore, in most regions, housing density outside protected areas was positively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of synanthropes and negatively associated with the proportional abundance of land cover affiliates and Species of Greatest Conservation Need within protected areas. However, these effects were weaker than housing within protected areas. Natural land cover was high with little variability within protected areas, and consequently, was less influential than housing density within or outside protected areas explaining the proportional abundance or proportional richness of the avian guilds. Our results indicate that housing development within, at the boundary, and outside protected areas impacts avian community structure within protected areas throughout the United States.

Image texture predicts avian density and species richness.

For decades, ecologists have measured habitat attributes in the field to understand and predict patterns of animal distribution and abundance. However, the scale of inference possible from field measured data is typically limited because large-scale data collection is rarely feasible. This is problematic given that conservation and management typical require data that are fine grained yet broad in extent. Recent advances in remote sensing methodology offer alternative tools for efficiently characterizing wildlife habitat across broad areas. We explored the use of remotely sensed image texture, which is a surrogate for vegetation structure, calculated from both an air photo and from a Landsat TM satellite image, compared with field-measured vegetation structure, characterized by foliage-height diversity and horizontal vegetation structure, to predict avian density and species richness within grassland, savanna, and woodland habitats at Fort McCoy Military Installation, Wisconsin, USA. Image texture calculated from the air photo best predicted density of a grassland associated species, grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), within grassland habitat (R(2) = 0.52, p-value <0.001), and avian species richness among habitats (R(2)= 0.54, p-value <0.001). Density of field sparrow (Spizella pusilla), a savanna associated species, was not particularly well captured by either field-measured or remotely sensed vegetation structure variables, but was best predicted by air photo image texture (R(2)= 0.13, p-value = 0.002). Density of ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), a woodland associated species, was best predicted by pixel-level satellite data (mean NDVI, R(2)= 0.54, p-value <0.001). Surprisingly and interestingly, remotely sensed vegetation structure measures (i.e., image texture) were often better predictors of avian density and species richness than field-measured vegetation structure, and thus show promise as a valuable tool for mapping habitat quality and characterizing biodiversity across broad areas.

Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network.

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our "restricted-urban-growth" scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.