Seroprevalence of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae in Beaufort Sea Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) is Linked to Ringed Seal (Pusa hispida) Demographics.

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) life history is intimately associated with the distribution of sea ice and their prey in Arctic ecosystems. These ecosystems are changing in response to climate warming, resulting in the increased prevalence of pathogens in polar bears. Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae has a long history of infection in domestic species and more recently in wildlife in the Canadian Arctic. As a result of increasing reports of E. rhusiopathiae causing morbidity and mortality in Arctic terrestrial mammals, we tested the seroprevalence of E. rhusiopathiae in Beaufort Sea polar bears sampled in 1985-87, 1992, 1994, and 2003-11. Our sample of 180 polar bears (117 females, 61 males, two unknown) with a median age of 9 yr (range 1-26 yr) had a seropositivity of 27.2% (49/180 individuals). We used binomial logistic regressions to investigate biotic and abiotic factors that may be linked to seropositivity. The resulting top model found that increased predation on adult ringed seals (Pusa [Phoca] hispida) and negative winter Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) years were associated with a higher probability of seropositivity. Ringed seals may be a reservoir for E. rhusiopathiae via their consumption of infected prey, as the pathogen can persist in marine fish, molluscs, and crustaceans. Negative winter AOIs in our data set reflected high ice volume years, which reduced ringed seal natality, resulting in fewer seal pups available as prey. Our results suggest that exposure to E. rhusiopathiae in Beaufort Sea polar bears is modulated by a predator-prey mechanism.

Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.

Adoption by olive baboons (Papio anubis) of newly constructed electricity pylons as sleeping sites in Laikipia, Kenya.

Olive baboons (Papio anubis) use fixed, secure, and naturally occurring sleeping sites such as tall trees and rocky cliffs, as protection from predators and often show a selection preference for particular trees or rocky cliff faces. We documented olive baboons' adoption of recently constructed high-tension electrical transmission towers (pylons) as a novel type of sleeping site in Laikipia, Kenya. The use of pylons suggests that the greatest potential benefits may include reduced parasite exposure and predation avoidance. Thermoregulation and feeding efficiency are not supported as benefits because pylons increase baboons' exposure to wind and cool nighttime temperatures and the pylons were constructed in locations independent of established feeding sites. These observations advance our understanding of olive baboon sleeping site selection in a changing landscape.

Widespread Exposure to Mosquitoborne California Serogroup Viruses in Caribou, Arctic Fox, Red Fox, and Polar Bears, Canada.

Northern Canada is warming at 3 times the global rate. Thus, changing diversity and distribution of vectors and pathogens is an increasing health concern. California serogroup (CSG) viruses are mosquitoborne arboviruses; wildlife reservoirs in northern ecosystems have not been identified. We detected CSG virus antibodies in 63% (95% CI 58%-67%) of caribou (n = 517), 4% (95% CI 2%-7%) of Arctic foxes (n = 297), 12% (95% CI 6%-21%) of red foxes (n = 77), and 28% (95% CI 24%-33%) of polar bears (n = 377). Sex, age, and summer temperatures were positively associated with polar bear exposure; location, year, and ecotype were associated with caribou exposure. Exposure was highest in boreal caribou and increased from baseline in polar bears after warmer summers. CSG virus exposure of wildlife is linked to climate change in northern Canada and sustained surveillance could be used to measure human health risks.

Energy-based step selection analysis: Modelling the energetic drivers of animal movement and habitat use.

The energetic gains from foraging and costs of movement are expected to be key drivers of animal decision-making, as their balance is a large determinant of body condition and survival. This fundamental perspective is often missing from habitat selection studies, which mainly describe correlations between space use and environmental features, rather than the mechanisms behind these correlations. To address this gap, we present a novel parameterisation of step selection functions (SSFs), that we term the energy selection function (ESF). In this model, the likelihood of an animal selecting a movement step depends directly on the corresponding energetic gains and costs, and we can therefore assess how moving animals choose habitat based on energetic considerations. The ESF retains the mathematical convenience and practicality of other SSFs and can be quickly fitted using standard software. In this article, we outline a workflow, from data gathering to statistical analysis, and use a case study of polar bears Ursus maritimus to demonstrate application of the model. We explain how defining gains and costs at the scale of the movement step allows us to include information about resource distribution, landscape resistance and movement patterns. We further demonstrate this process with a case study of polar bears and show how the parameters can be interpreted in terms of selection for energetic gains and against energetic costs. The ESF is a flexible framework that combines the energetic consequences of both movement and resource selection, thus incorporating a key mechanism into habitat selection analysis. Further, because it is based on familiar habitat selection models, the ESF is widely applicable to any study system where energetic gains and costs can be derived, and has immense potential for methodological extensions.

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change.

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least one-fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change.

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.

Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas.

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

Assessing the Effectiveness of China's Panda Protection System.

Protected areas form the backbone of biodiversity conservation, yet their effectiveness is often not known nor even evaluated [1-3]. China-best known for its record of ecological degradation in the face of rapidly increasing gross domestic product and resource consumption [4]-has in recent years enacted a series of policies and programs to conserve its natural resources. Chief among them is an ambitious protected area system covering 17% of its terrestrial land mass [4, 5]. An important early impetus for the establishment of this reserve system was the protection of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) [5-8]. Using data from two previous large-scale surveys [9, 10] separated by a decade, and including over 50,000 habitat plots, we examined the panda population and habitat trends inside and outside reserves. Despite ambitious ecocompensation programs in panda habitat outside reserves [11-13], the protection provided by reserves reduced most classes of human disturbance compared to outside reserves, and most disturbances decreased through time more strongly inside than outside reserves. Reserves also contained more and increasing suitable panda than found outside reserves [14, 15]. Comparing reserve performance, reserves with increasing older forests and bamboo correlated with increasing panda populations. Together these findings indicate that China's panda reserves have been effective and that they are functioning better over time, conserving more and better habitats and containing more pandas. While China's protected area system still has much room for improvement [4, 5], including to support pandas [16], these findings underscore the progress made in China's nascent environmental movement.

Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity.

The effects of declining Arctic sea ice on local ecosystem productivity are not well understood but have been shown to vary inter-specifically, spatially, and temporally. Because marine mammals occupy upper trophic levels in Arctic food webs, they may be useful indicators for understanding variation in ecosystem productivity. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are apex predators that primarily consume benthic and pelagic-feeding ice-associated seals. As such, their productivity integrates sea ice conditions and the ecosystem supporting them. Declining sea ice availability has been linked to negative population effects for polar bears but does not fully explain observed population changes. We examined relationships between spring foraging success of polar bears and sea ice conditions, prey productivity, and general patterns of ecosystem productivity in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas (CSs). Fasting status (≥7 days) was estimated using serum urea and creatinine levels of 1,448 samples collected from 1,177 adult and subadult bears across three subpopulations. Fasting increased in the Beaufort Sea between 1983-1999 and 2000-2016 and was related to an index of ringed seal body condition. This change was concurrent with declines in body condition of polar bears and observed changes in the diet, condition and/or reproduction of four other vertebrate consumers within the food chain. In contrast, fasting declined in CS polar bears between periods and was less common than in the two Beaufort Sea subpopulations consistent with studies demonstrating higher primary productivity and maintenance or improved body condition in polar bears, ringed seals, and bearded seals despite recent sea ice loss in this region. Consistency between regional and temporal variation in spring polar bear fasting and food web productivity suggests that polar bears may be a useful indicator species. Furthermore, our results suggest that spatial and temporal ecological variation is important in affecting upper trophic-level productivity in these marine ecosystems.

Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.

Age and sex composition of seals killed by polar bears in the eastern Beaufort Sea.

BACKGROUND: Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the Beaufort Sea enter hyperphagia in spring and gain fat reserves to survive periods of low prey availability. We collected information on seals killed by polar bears (n=650) and hunting attempts on ringed seal (Pusa hispida) lairs (n=1396) observed from a helicopter during polar bear mark-recapture studies in the eastern Beaufort Sea in spring in 1985-2011. We investigated how temporal shifts in ringed seal reproduction affect kill composition and the intraspecific vulnerabilities of ringed seals to polar bear predation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polar bears primarily preyed on ringed seals (90.2%) while bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) only comprised 9.8% of the kills, but 33% of the biomass. Adults comprised 43.6% (150/344) of the ringed seals killed, while their pups comprised 38.4% (132/344). Juvenile ringed seals were killed at the lowest proportion, comprising 18.0% (62/344) of the ringed seal kills. The proportion of ringed seal pups was highest between 2007-2011, in association with high ringed seal productivity. Half of the adult ringed seal kills were ≥ 21 years (60/121), and kill rates of adults increased following the peak of parturition. Determination of sex from DNA revealed that polar bears killed adult male and adult female ringed seals equally (0.50, n=78). The number of hunting attempts at ringed seal subnivean lair sites was positively correlated with the number of pup kills (r(2) =0.30, P=0.04), but was not correlated with the number of adult kills (P=0.37). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Results are consistent with decadal trends in ringed seal productivity, with low numbers of pups killed by polar bears in spring in years of low pup productivity, and conversely when pup productivity was high. Vulnerability of adult ringed seals to predation increased in relation to reproductive activities and age, but not gender.