HIV programme sustainability in Southern and Eastern Africa and the changing role of external assistance for health.

High human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-prevalence countries in Southern and Eastern Africa continue to receive substantial external assistance (EA) for HIV programming, yet countries are at risk of transitioning out of HIV aid without achieving epidemic control. We sought to address two questions: (1) to what extent has HIV EA in the region been programmed and delivered in a way that supports long-term sustainability and (2) how should development agencies change operational approaches to support long-term, sustainable HIV control? We conducted 20 semi-structured key informant interviews with global and country-level respondents coupled with an analysis of Global Fund budget data for Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia (from 2017 until the present). We assessed EA practice along six dimensions of sustainability, namely financial, epidemiological, programmatic, rights-based, structural and political sustainability. Our respondents described HIV systems' vulnerability to donor departure, as well as how development partner priorities and practices have created challenges to promoting long-term HIV control. The challenges exacerbated by EA patterns include an emphasis on treatment over prevention, limiting effects on new infection rates; resistance to service integration driven in part by 'winners' under current EA patterns and challenges in ensuring coverage for marginalized populations; persistent structural barriers to effectively serving key populations and limited capacity among organizations best positioned to respond to community needs; and the need for advocacy given the erosion of political commitment by the long-term and substantive nature of HIV EA. Our recommendations include developing a robust investment case for primary prevention, providing operational support for integration processes, investing in local organizations and addressing issues of political will. While strategies must be locally crafted, our paper provides initial suggestions for how EA partners could change operational approaches to support long-term HIV control and the achievement of universal health coverage.

Effect of Short, Animated Video Storytelling on Maternal Knowledge and Satisfaction in the Perinatal Period in South Africa: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Innovative mobile health (mHealth) interventions can improve maternal knowledge, thereby supporting national efforts to reduce preventable maternal and child mortality in South Africa. Studies have documented a potential role for mobile video content to support perinatal health messaging, enhance maternal satisfaction, and overcome literacy barriers. Short, animated storytelling (SAS) is an innovative, emerging approach to mHealth messaging. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to measure the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge and user satisfaction for mothers enrolled in antenatal care programs at 2 public health facilities in the Tshwane District of South Africa. METHODS: We used a randomized controlled trial with a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. Participants were randomized 1:1 into Standard-of-Care (SOC) Control, and SAS Intervention groups. The intervention videos were delivered through WhatsApp, and 1 month later, participants responded to telephone surveys assessing their knowledge. The intervention group then participated in a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. RESULTS: We surveyed 204 participants. Of them, 49.5% (101/204) were aged between 25 and 34 years. Almost all participants self-identified as Black, with the majority (190/204, 93.2%) having completed secondary school. The mean overall knowledge score was 21.92/28. We observed a slight increase of 0.28 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -0.58 to 1.16) in the overall knowledge score in the intervention arm. We found that those with secondary education or above scored higher than those with only primary education by 2.24 (95% UI 0.76-4.01). Participants aged 35 years or older also scored higher than the youngest age group (18-24 years) by 1.83 (95% CI 0.39-3.33). Finally, the nested user satisfaction evaluation revealed high maternal satisfaction (4.71/5) with the SAS video series. CONCLUSIONS: While the SAS videos resulted in high user satisfaction, measured knowledge gains were small within a participant population that was already receiving perinatal health messages through antenatal clinics. The higher knowledge scores observed in older participants with higher education levels suggest that boosting maternal knowledge in younger mothers with lower education levels should continue to be a public health priority in South Africa. Given the high maternal satisfaction among the SAS video-users in this study, policy makers should consider integrating similar approaches into existing, broad-reaching perinatal health programs, such as MomConnect, to boost satisfaction and potentially enhance maternal engagement. While previous studies have shown the promise of animated video health education, most of this research has been conducted in high-income countries. More research in underresourced settings is urgently needed, especially as access to mobile technology increases in the Global South. Future studies should explore the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge in hard-to-reach populations with limited access to antenatal care, although real-world logistical challenges persist when implementing studies in underresourced South African populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202203673222680; https://tinyurl.com/362cpuny.

From purists to pragmatists: a qualitative evaluation of how implementation processes and contexts shaped the uptake and methodological adaptations of a maternal and neonatal quality improvement programme in South Africa prior to, and during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress, maternal and neonatal mortality and still births remain high in South Africa. The South African National Department of Health implemented a quality improvement (QI) programme, called Mphatlalatsane, to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality and still births. It was implemented in 21 public health facilities, seven per participating province, between 2018 and 2022. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative process evaluation of the contextual and implementation process factors' influence on implementation uptake amongst the QI teams in 15 purposively selected facilities. Data collection included three interview rounds with the leaders and members of the QI teams in each facility; intermittent interviews with the QI advisors; programme documentation review; observation of programme management meetings; and keeping a fieldwork journal. All data were thematically analysed in Atlas.ti. Implementation uptake varied across the three provinces and between facilities within provinces. RESULTS: Between March and August 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted uptake in all provinces but affected QI teams in one province more severely than others, because they received limited pre-pandemic training. Better uptake among other sites was attributed to receiving more QI training pre-COVID-19, having an experienced QI advisor, and good teamwork. Uptake was more challenging amongst hospital teams which had more staff and more complicated MNH services, versus the primary healthcare facilities. We also attributed better uptake to greater district management support. A key factor shaping uptake was leaders' intrinsic motivation to apply QI methodology. We found that, across sites, organic adaptations to the QI methodology were made by teams, started during COVID-19. Teams did away with rapid testing of change ideas and keeping a paper trail of the steps followed. Though still using data to identify service problems, they used self-developed audit tools to record intervention effectiveness, and not the prescribed tools. CONCLUSIONS: Our study underscores the critical role of intrinsic motivation of team leaders, support from experienced technical QI advisors, and context-sensitive adaptations to maximise QI uptake when traditionally recognised QI steps cannot be followed.

What will it take for an injectable ARV to change the face of the HIV epidemic in high-prevalence countries? Considerations regarding drug costs and operations.

INTRODUCTION: The proven effectiveness of injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) is higher than that of any other HIV prevention intervention ever trialled or implemented, surpassing medical male circumcision, condoms and combination antiretroviral treatment. Based on our own analyses and experience with the South African oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme, we review the supply and demand side factors that would need to be in place for a successful rollout of CAB-LA, and delineate lessons for the launch of other long-acting and extended delivery (LAED) antiretroviral drugs. DISCUSSION: On the supply side, CAB-LA will have to be offered at a price that makes the drug affordable and cost-effective to low- and middle-income countries, especially those with high HIV prevalence. An important factor in lowering prices is a guaranteed market volume, which in turn necessitates the involvement of large funders, such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund, and a fairly rapid scale-up of the drug. Such a scale-up would have to involve speedy regulatory approval and WHO pre-qualification, swift integration of CAB-LA into national guidelines and planning for large enough manufacturing capacity, including the enabling of local manufacture. On the demand side, existing demand for HIV prevention products has to be harnessed and additional demand created, which will be aided by designing CAB-LA programmes at the primary healthcare or community level, and involving non-traditional outlets, such as private pharmacies and doctors' practices. CONCLUSIONS: CAB-LA could be the game changer for HIV prevention that we have been hoping for, and serve as a useful pilot for other LAEDs. A successful rollout would involve building markets of a guaranteed size; lowering the drug's price to a level possibly below the cost of production, while also lowering the cost of production altogether; harnessing, creating and sustaining demand for the product over the long term, wherever possible, in national programmes rather than single demonstration sites; and establishing and maintaining manufacturing capacity and supply chains. For this, all parties have to work together-including originator and generic manufacturers, donor organizations and other large funders, and the governments of low- and middle-income countries, in particular those with high HIV prevalence.

Mobilizing resources with an investment case to mitigate cross-border malaria transmission and achieve malaria elimination in South Africa.

South Africa's effort to eliminate malaria is significantly challenged by a large number of imported malaria cases, especially from neighbouring Mozambique. The country has a funding gap to achieve its malaria elimination goals (prior to 2019) and is ineligible to receive a national allocation from the Global Fund. The findings of an IC were utilised to successfully mobilise resources for malaria elimination in South Africa in 2018. A five-step resource mobilisation strategy was implemented to highlight financing challenges and leverage the economic evidence from an IC for malaria elimination in South Africa. South Africa's malaria programme implements control and elimination activities in three malaria-endemic provinces (KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga). Driven by the IC findings, the South African government took an unprecedented step and increased total domestic malaria financing by approximately 36%, from the 2018/19 to the 2019/20 financial years through the creation of a new conditional grant for malaria. The IC findings predicted that malaria control in southern Mozambique is a prerequisite to eliminate malaria in South Africa. Based on this, the South African government also allocated funding towards a co-financing mechanism to support malaria control efforts in southern Mozambique. The IC findings assisted the South African National Department of Health to make a convincing case to key government decision-makers to invest in national malaria elimination and maximise economic returns in the long run. The South African government is the first in Southern Africa to mobilise a significant increase in domestic malaria financing to address the financial sustainability of both national and regional malaria elimination efforts. Continued surveillance activities will be required to prevent the re-establishment of malaria transmission even after malaria elimination is achieved in South Africa. Information sharing and close collaboration with provincial and national government officials were key to the successful outcome.

Children and young women in eastern and southern Africa are key to meeting 2030 HIV targets: time to accelerate action.

New HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths among children and adolescent girls and young women (aged 15-24 years) in eastern and southern Africa continue to occur at unacceptably high rates. The COVID-19 pandemic has also severely undermined ongoing initiatives for HIV prevention and treatment, threatening to set the region back further in its efforts to end AIDS by 2030. Major impediments exist to attaining the UNAIDS 2025 targets among children, adolescent girls, young women, young mothers living with HIV, and young female sex workers residing in eastern and southern Africa. Each population has specific but overlapping needs with regard to diagnosis and linkage to and retention in care. Urgent action is needed to intensify and improve programmes for HIV prevention and treatment, including sexual and reproductive health services for adolescent girls and young women, HIV-positive young mothers, and young female sex workers.

Impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on male urethritis syndrome services in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, there have been significant changes in utilisation of STI testing and treatment services during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 in countries that use syndromic STI management is not documented. This study used routine STI surveillance data to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on utilisation of STI syndromic management services during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a time-trend analysis of male urethritis syndrome (MUS) cases reported through routine national STI surveillance in South Africa and COVID-19 data available through the national dashboard. We defined three time periods (prelockdown, lockdown and postlockdown) based on COVID-19 response levels. Trends in MUS reporting was compared between these time periods at national and provincial level and with the number of positive COVID-19 tests in a district. RESULTS: An overall reduction of 27% in the national number of MUS cases reported (monthly average from 27 117 to 20 107) occurred between the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 lockdown periods (p<0.001), with a range of 18%-39% between the nine provinces. Postlockdown, case numbers returned almost to the prelockdown level (26 304; -3.0%). No significant difference was found in number of MUS cases between the prelockdown and postlockdown periods. A weak correlation (R2=0,21) was identified between the change in number of MUS reported and COVID-19 positive tests in a district. CONCLUSIONS: A strong reduction in reported MUS cases for syndromic management was observed during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic and lockdown across all provinces in South Africa. This is likely the result of various healthcare system and service delivery factors associated with lockdown measures. The observed return of MUS cases reported to prelockdown measures is reassuring.

Early Reflections on Mphatlalatsane, a Maternal and Neonatal Quality Improvement Initiative Implemented During COVID-19 in South Africa.

Despite global progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and stillbirths, much work remains to be done to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Reports indicate that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disrupts the provision and uptake of routine maternal and neonatal health care (MNH) services and negatively impacts cumulative pre-COVID-19 achievements. We describe a multipartnered MNH quality improvement (QI) initiative called Mphatlalatsane, which was implemented in South Africa before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initiative aimed to reduce the maternal mortality ratio, neonatal mortality rate, and stillbirth rate by 50% between 2018 and 2022. The multifaceted design comprises QI and other intervention activities across micro-, meso-, and macrolevels, and its area-based approach facilitates patients' access to MNH services. The initiative commenced 6 months pre-COVID-19, with subsequent adaptation necessitated by COVID-19. The initial focus on a plan-do-study-act QI model shifted toward meeting the immediate needs of health care workers (HCWs), the health system, and health care managers arising from COVID-19. Examples include providing emotional support to staff and streamlining supply chain management for infection control and personal protection materials. As these needs were addressed, Mphatlalatsane gradually refocused HCWs' and managers' attention to recognize the disruptions caused by COVID-19 to routine MNH services. This gradual reprioritization included the development of a risk matrix to help staff and managers identify specific risks to service provision and uptake and develop mitigating measures. Through this approach, Mphatlalatsane led to an optimization case using existing resources rather than requesting new resources to build an investment case, with a responsive design and implementation approach as the cornerstone of the initiative. Further, Mphatlalatsane demonstrates that agile and context-specific responses to crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic can mitigate such threats and maintain interventions to improve MNH services.

Investigating the quality of HIV rapid testing practices in public antenatal health care facilities, South Africa.

Monitoring HIV prevalence using antenatal HIV sentinel surveillance is important for efficient epidemic tracking, programme planning and resource allocation. HIV sentinel surveillance usually employs unlinked anonymous HIV testing which raises ethical, epidemiological and public health challenges in the current era of universal test and treat. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that countries should consider using routine prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) data for surveillance. We audited antenatal care clinics to assess the quality of HIV rapid testing practices as the first step to assess whether South Africa is ready to utilize PMTCT programme data for antenatal HIV surveillance. In 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in 360 randomly sampled antenatal care clinics using the adapted WHO Stepwise-Process-for-Improving-the-Quality-of-HIV-Rapid-Testing (SPI-RT) checklist. We calculated median percentage scores within a domain (domain-specific median score), and across all domains (overall median percentage scores). The latter was used to classify sites according to five implementation levels; (from 0:<40% to 4: 90% or higher). Of 346 (96.1%) facilities assessed, an overall median percentage score of 62.1% (inter-quartile range (IQR): 50.8-71.9%) was obtained. The lowest domain-specific median percentage scores were obtained under training/certification (35% IQR: 10.0-50.0%) and external quality assurance (12.5% IQR: 0.0-50.0%), respectively. The majority (89%) of sites had an overall median score at level 2 or below; of these, 37% required improvement in specific areas and 6.4% in all areas. Facilities in districts implementing the HIV Rapid Test Quality Improvement Initiative and supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) had significantly higher median overall scores (65.6% IQR: 53.9-74.2%) (P-value from rank sum test: <0.001) compared with non-PEPFAR-supported facilities (56.6% IQR:47.7-66.0%). We found sub-optimal implementation of HIV rapid testing practices. We recommend the expansion of the PEPFAR-funded Rapid Test Continuous Quality Improvement (RTCQI) support to all antenatal care testing sites.

Optimizing knowledge and behavioral intention of women and their partners in the perinatal period in South Africa: a randomized control trial study protocol in the Tshwane district, Gauteng province, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Maternal knowledge that motivates improvements in critical perinatal health behaviors has the potential to significantly reduce maternal and neonatal mortality. However, evidence-based health information often fails to reach mothers and their partners. mHealth video micro-messages, which disseminate evidence-based perinatal health messages, have the potential to address this gap. METHODS: The study will make use of a mixed method design, using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The study consists of two phases. During Phase 1, qualitative in-depth interviews will be used as part of a human-centered design approach to co-create 10 videos on priority perinatal behaviors. During Phase 2, quantitative methods (a randomized control trial) will be used to test the effectiveness of the videos in improving maternal knowledge and intended behavioral change. DISCUSSION: We hypothesize that by engaging mothers and their partners through emotive, resonant narratives and visuals, we can facilitate the delivery of evidence-based health messages at the foundation of perinatal health, thereby motivating life-saving improvements in health behaviors during the perinatal period. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial has been prospectively registered on the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR), with the registration number PACTR202203673222680 . Registration date: 14 March 2022.  TRIAL REGISTRATION WHO DATA SET: Registry - Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR). Date: 14 March 2022. Secondary identification number - grant number: GCCSOAFMNH1. Source of support: Science for Africa Foundation. Primary sponsor - Clinton Health Access Initiative South Africa. Secondary sponsor - Stanford University School of Medicine and Heidelberg University. Contact for public & scientific queries: amandlamamasa@clintonhealthaccess.org ; +27 123,426,911; 1166 Francis Baard St, Hatfield, Pretoria, 0028. Public title - Amandla Mama. Scientific title - Optimizing knowledge and behavioral intention of women and their partners in the perinatal period in South Africa. Countries of recruitment - South Africa. Health conditions - antenatal care. Intervention - Amandla Mama mHealth videos, short 2D animated health promotional videos that promote healthy behavior in expectant mothers. Inclusion and exclusion criteria - Expectant mothers and their partners must be 18 years and older. Study type - randomized control trial. Date of first enrollment - 14 March 2021. Sample size - plan to enrol 450 participants, participants enrolled 29 participants. Recruitment Status - suspended. Primary outcome - improving knowledge. Secondary outcome - intended behavioral change. Ethics review - Approved on 24 January 2022 by Pharma-Ethics, contact Mrs. Marzelle Haskins, marzelle@pharma-ethics.co.za . Completion date - N/A. Summary results - N/A. IPD sharing statement - yes, through the publication of results in a journal article.

Prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa, 2017-19: a multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains an important clinical and public health issue in South Africa, which has one of the highest tuberculosis burdens in the world. We aimed to estimate the burden of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis among people aged 15 years or older in South Africa. METHODS: This multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey included eligible residents (age ≥15 years, who had slept in a house for ≥10 nights in the preceding 2 weeks) in 110 clusters nationally (cluster size of 500 people; selected by probability proportional-to-population size sampling). Participants completed face-to-face symptom questionnaires (for cough, weight loss, fever, and night sweats) and manually read digital chest X-ray screening. Screening was recorded as positive if participants had at least one symptom or an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of tuberculosis, or a combination thereof. Sputum samples from participants who were screen-positive were tested by the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay (first sample) and Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture (second sample), with optional HIV testing. Participants with a positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex culture were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis; when culture was not positive, participants with a positive Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra result with an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of active tuberculosis and without current or previous tuberculosis were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. FINDINGS: Between Aug 15, 2017, and July 28, 2019, 68 771 people were enumerated from 110 clusters, with 53 250 eligible to participate in the survey, of whom 35 191 (66·1%) participated. 9066 (25·8%) of 35 191 participants were screen-positive and 234 (0·7%) were identified as having bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Overall, the estimated prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis was 852 cases (95% CI 679-1026) per 100 000 population; the prevalence was highest in people aged 35-44 years (1107 cases [95% CI 703-1511] per 100 000 population) and those aged 65 years or older (1104 cases [680-1528] per 100 000 population). The estimated prevalence was approximately 1·6 times higher in men than in women (1094 cases [95% CI 835-1352] per 100 000 population vs 675 cases [494-855] per 100 000 population). 135 (57·7%) of 234 participants with tuberculosis screened positive by chest X-ray only, 16 (6·8%) by symptoms only, and 82 (35·9%) by both. 55 (28·8%) of 191 participants with tuberculosis with known HIV status were HIV-positive. INTERPRETATION: Pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence in this survey was high, especially in men. Despite the ongoing burden of HIV, many participants with tuberculosis in this survey did not have HIV. As more than half of the participants with tuberculosis had an abnormal chest X-ray without symptoms, prioritising chest X-ray screening could substantially increase case finding. FUNDING: Global Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID.

The importation and establishment of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first eight weeks of the South African COVID-19 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: We describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in South Africa following importation and during implementation of stringent lockdown measures. METHODS: Using national surveillance data including demographics, laboratory test data, clinical presentation, risk exposures (travel history, contacts and occupation) and outcomes of persons undergoing COVID-19 testing or hospitalised with COVID-19 at sentinel surveillance sites, we generated and interpreted descriptive statistics, epidemic curves, and initial reproductive numbers (Rt). FINDINGS: From 4 March to 30 April 2020, 271,670 SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were performed (462 tests/100,000 persons). Of these, 7,892 (2.9%) persons tested positive (median age 37 years (interquartile range 28-49 years), 4,568 (58%) male, cumulative incidence of 13.4 cases/100,000 persons). Hospitalization records were found for 1,271 patients (692 females (54%)) of whom 186 (14.6%) died. Amongst 2,819 cases with data, 489/2819 (17.3%) travelled internationally within 14 days prior to diagnosis, mostly during March 2020 (466 (95%)). Cases diagnosed in April compared with March were younger (median age, 37 vs. 40 years), less likely female (38% vs. 53%) and resident in a more populous province (98% vs. 91%). The national initial Rt was 2.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.71-2.51). INTERPRETATION: The first eight weeks following COVID-19 importation were characterised by early predominance of imported cases and relatively low mortality and transmission rates. Despite stringent lockdown measures, the second month following importation was characterised by community transmission and increasing disease burden in more populous provinces.

Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period. METHODS: A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model. RESULTS: Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

Difference in mortality among individuals admitted to hospital with COVID-19 during the first and second waves in South Africa: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa peaked in July, 2020, and a larger second wave peaked in January, 2021, in which the SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 (Beta) lineage predominated. We aimed to compare in-hospital mortality and other patient characteristics between the first and second waves. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we analysed data from the DATCOV national active surveillance system for COVID-19 admissions to hospital from March 5, 2020, to March 27, 2021. The system contained data from all hospitals in South Africa that have admitted a patient with COVID-19. We used incidence risk for admission to hospital and determined cutoff dates to define five wave periods: pre-wave 1, wave 1, post-wave 1, wave 2, and post-wave 2. We compared the characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital in wave 1 and wave 2, and risk factors for in-hospital mortality accounting for wave period using random-effect multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: Peak rates of COVID-19 cases, admissions, and in-hospital deaths in the second wave exceeded rates in the first wave: COVID-19 cases, 240·4 cases per 100 000 people vs 136·0 cases per 100 000 people; admissions, 27·9 admissions per 100 000 people vs 16·1 admissions per 100 000 people; deaths, 8·3 deaths per 100 000 people vs 3·6 deaths per 100 000 people. The weekly average growth rate in hospital admissions was 20% in wave 1 and 43% in wave 2 (ratio of growth rate in wave 2 compared with wave 1 was 1·19, 95% CI 1·18-1·20). Compared with the first wave, individuals admitted to hospital in the second wave were more likely to be age 40-64 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·22, 95% CI 1·14-1·31), and older than 65 years (aOR 1·38, 1·25-1·52), compared with younger than 40 years; of Mixed race (aOR 1·21, 1·06-1·38) compared with White race; and admitted in the public sector (aOR 1·65, 1·41-1·92); and less likely to be Black (aOR 0·53, 0·47-0·60) and Indian (aOR 0·77, 0·66-0·91), compared with White; and have a comorbid condition (aOR 0·60, 0·55-0·67). For multivariable analysis, after adjusting for weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions, there was a 31% increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the second wave (aOR 1·31, 95% CI 1·28-1·35). In-hospital case-fatality risk increased from 17·7% in weeks of low admission (<3500 admissions) to 26·9% in weeks of very high admission (>8000 admissions; aOR 1·24, 1·17-1·32). INTERPRETATION: In South Africa, the second wave was associated with higher incidence of COVID-19, more rapid increase in admissions to hospital, and increased in-hospital mortality. Although some of the increased mortality can be explained by admissions in the second wave being more likely in older individuals, in the public sector, and by the increased health system pressure, a residual increase in mortality of patients admitted to hospital could be related to the new Beta lineage. FUNDING: DATCOV as a national surveillance system is funded by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the South African National Government.

Short-term Outcomes from a Cluster Randomized Evaluation of Adherence Clubs as Part of Differentiated HIV Care in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated care has been proposed to improve HIV treatment outcomes. In June 2016, South Africa's National Department of Health in collaboration with researchers began an evaluation of its National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases (AGL) which was being rolled-out by NDOH to public sector health facilities. METHODS: The evaluation has a cluster-randomized design with 12 intervention and 12 control facilities in 4 provinces. Follow up was by passive surveillance using clinical records. Enrollment occurred between June-December 2016. Our primary outcome was receipt of ART through Adherence Clubs (AC) within the first 4 months after AC eligibility. We compared crude results, used baseline covariate adjustment and difference-in-differences approaches to assess effects of ACs. RESULTS: We enrolled 275 patients from ACs and 294 control arm patients. About 57% were <40 years and just over 70% were female. At ART initiation average CD4 count was 268 cells (range 157-379). ACs showed a benefit in crude analyses of a 4 percentage point increase in patients picking up their medication (RD 4.4%; 95% CI: -0.6% to 9.4%) which increased to 6.7 percentage points (95% CI: 3.4% to 10.4%) after adjusting for baseline differences. The difference remained after adjusting for clusters and baseline covariates, though the confidence interval widened (RD 7.5%; 95% CI: -1.3% to 16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We found early benefits to ACs in terms of medication pickups, though our results lacked precision. As we progress to long-term outcomes, it is important to see if these early gains translate into improved retention and viral suppression.

World AIDS Day 2020: Reflections on global and South African progress and continuing challenges.

BACKGROUND: Reflecting on progress and challenges in meeting global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) targets is often done ahead of World AIDS Day. This article reflects on progress and the continuing challenges in meeting targets in South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVE: To review policy and implementation related progress and continuing challenges towards eliminating HIV as a public health threat by 2030. METHOD: Policy analysis and review of modeling data from Thembisa 4.3. RESULTS: South Africa has made significant progress in the adoption of policies with two exceptions. While there are gaps in reaching the 90-90-90 implementation targets, progress has been made in the past decade. CONCLUSION: While progress has been made in the past decade towards the global targets, much work remains to ensure that HIV transmission is curtailed and those that require treatment are initiated on treatment and are virally suppressed.

Turning threats into opportunities: how to implement and advance quality TB services for people with HIV during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

INTRODUCTION: Until COVID-19, tuberculosis (TB) was the leading infectious disease killer globally, disproportionally affecting people with HIV. The COVID-19 pandemic is threatening the gains made in the fight against both diseases. DISCUSSION: Although crucial guidance has been released on how to maintain TB and HIV services during the pandemic, it is acknowledged that what was considered normal service pre-pandemic needs to improve to ensure that we rebuild person-centred, inclusive and quality healthcare services. The threat that the pandemic may reverse gains in the response to TB and HIV may be turned into an opportunity by pivoting to using proven differentiated service delivery approaches and innovative technologies that can be used to maintain care during the pandemic and accelerate improved service delivery in the long term. Models of care should be convenient, supportive and sufficiently differentiated to avoid burdensome clinic visits for medication pick-ups or directly observed treatments. Additionally, the pandemic has highlighted the chronic and short-sighted lack of investment in health systems and the need to prioritize research and development to close the gaps in TB diagnosis, treatment and prevention, especially for children and people with HIV. Most importantly, TB-affected communities and civil society must be supported to lead the planning, implementation and monitoring of TB and HIV services, especially in the time of COVID-19 where services have been disrupted, and to report on legal, policy and gender-related barriers to access experienced by affected people. This will help to ensure that TB services are held accountable by affected communities for delivering equitable access to quality, affordable and non-discriminatory services during and beyond the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Successfully reaching the related targets of ending TB and AIDS as public health threats by 2030 requires rebuilding of stronger, more inclusive health systems by advancing equitable access to quality TB services, including for people with HIV, both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, services must be rights-based, community-led and community-based, to ensure that no one is left behind.