Metabolic, neurotoxic and immunotoxic effects of PFAAs and their mixtures on the proteome of the head kidney and plasma from rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

PFAAs (Perfluoroalkyl acids) are a class of bioaccumulative, persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminants which primarily occupy the hydrosphere and its sediments. Currently, a paucity of toxicological information exists for short chain PFAAs and complex mixtures. In order to address these knowledge gaps, we performed a 3-week, aqueous exposure of rainbow trout to 3 different concentrations of a PFAA mixture (50, 100 and 500 ng/L) modeled after the composition determined in Lake Ontario. We conducted an additional set of exposures to individual PFAAs (25 nM each of PFOS (12,500 ng/L), PFOA (10,300 ng/L), PFBS (7500 ng/L) or PFBA (5300 ng/L) to evaluate differences in biological response across PFAA congeners. Untargeted proteomics and phosphorylated metabolomics were conducted on the blood plasma and head kidney tissue to evaluate biological response. Plasma proteomic responses to the mixtures revealed several unexpected outcomes including Similar proteomic profiles and biological processes as the PFOS exposure regime while being orders of magnitude lower in concentration and an atypical dose response in terms of the number of significantly altered proteins (FDR < 0.1). Biological pathway analysis revealed the low mixture, medium mixture and PFOS to significantly alter (FDR < 0.05) a number of processes including those involved in lipid metabolism, oxidative stress and the nervous system. We implicate plasma increases in PPARD and PPARG as being directly related to these biological processes as they are known to be important regulators in all 3 processes. In contrast to the blood plasma, the high mixture and PFOA exposure regimes caused the greatest change to the head kidney proteome, altering many proteins being involved in lipid metabolism, oxidative stress and inflammation. Our findings support the pleiotropic effect PFAAs have on aquatic organisms at environmentally relevant doses including those on PPAR signaling, metabolic dysregulation, immunotoxicity and neurotoxicity.

Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities.

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal's largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning-a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches-risk and futures-and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility's (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

Whither regulation, risk and water safety plans? Case studies from Malaysia and from England and Wales.

We explore the interplay between preventative risk management and regulatory style for the implementation of water safety plans in Malaysia and in England and Wales, two jurisdictions with distinct philosophies of approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 32 water safety professionals in Malaysia, 23 in England and Wales, supported by 6 Focus Group Discussions (n = 53 participants). A grounded theory approach produced insights on the transition from drinking water quality surveillance to preventative risk management. Themes familiar to this type of regulatory transition emerged, including concerns about compliance policy; overseeing the risk management controls of regulatees with varied competencies and funds available to drive change; and the portfolio of interventions suited to a more facilitative regulatory style. Because the potential harm from waterborne illness is high where pathogen exposures occur, the transition to risk-informed regulation demands mature organisational cultures among water utilities and regulators, and a laser-like focus on ensuring risk management controls are delivered within water supply systems.

Paternal Exposure to Carbamazepine Impacts Zebrafish Offspring Reproduction Over Multiple Generations.

Chronic low-concentration chemical exposures may have both direct health outcomes on adults and indirect effects on their offspring. Using zebrafish, we examined the impacts of chronic, low-concentration carbamazepine (CBZ) exposure on a suite of male reproductive endpoints in the parents and four generations of offspring reared in clean water. CBZ is one of the most frequently detected pharmaceutical residues in water, is a histone deacetylase inhibitor in mammals, and is reported to lower androgens in mammals and fish. Exposure of adult zebrafish to 10 µg/L CBZ for 6 weeks decreased reproductive output, courtship and aggressive behaviors, 11-ketotestosterone (11KT), and sperm morphology but did not impact milt volume or sperm swimming speed. Pairwise breeding generated lineages of offspring with both parents exposed and two lineages where only one parent was exposed; the control lineage had unexposed parents. Reproductive output and male reproductive indices were assessed in F1-F4 offspring to determine whether parental CBZ exposure had transgenerational impacts. The offspring of CBZ-exposed males had lower 11KT, reproductive output, altered courtship, aggression, and sperm morphology compared to the lineage from unexposed parents. Our results indicate that parental carbamazepine exposure history impacts the unexposed progeny up to the F4 generations and that paternal, but not maternal, exposure is most important for the reproductive health of male offspring.

Parental gemfibrozil exposure impacts zebrafish F1 offspring, but not subsequent generations.

Gemfibrozil (GEM) is a fibrate lipid regulator and one of the most commonly occurring fresh water pharmaceuticals. The negative effects of fibrates including GEM on fish reproduction have been frequently reported including effects of F0 GEM exposure on reproduction of the unexposed F1 offspring. We predicted that chronic, direct exposure of zebrafish with low concentrations of GEM would adversely affect parental male reproduction and unexposed offspring for multiple generations. Adult zebrafish were exposed to 10 µg/L GEM for 6 weeks and a range of reproductive indices were analyzed. The F1-F4 offspring were reared in clean water from 3 distinct lineages where only a single or both parents were exposed and compared to a control lineage where parents were unexposed. Reproductive indices were examined in unexposed F1-F4 offspring to test the hypothesis of multi- or trans- generational impacts. Exposure to GEM caused a decline in breeding success and mean embryo production in F0 parents and a reduction in whole body 11-ketotestosterone (11-KT), altered male courtship, aggression and sperm morphology. Our results indicate that paternal exposure alone is sufficient to result in reproductive effects in unexposed male offspring but that effects are mostly limited to F1. We suggest that GEM may act as a reproductive endocrine disruptor in fish and that chronic exposure reduced male reproductive fitness but not over multiple generations.

Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK.

A circular economy relies on demonstrating the quality and environmental safety of wastes that are recovered and reused as products. Policy-level risk assessments, using generalised exposure scenarios, and informed by stakeholder communities have been used to appraise the acceptability of necessary changes to legislation, allowing wastes to be valued, reused and marketed. Through an extensive risk assessment exercise, summarised in this paper, we explore the burden of proof required to offer safety assurance to consumer and brand-sensitive food sectors in light of attempts to declassify, as wastes, quality-assured, source-segregated compost and anaerobic digestate products in the United Kingdom. We report the residual microbiological and chemical risks estimated for both products in land application scenarios and discuss these in the context of an emerging UK bioeconomy worth £52bn per annum. Using plausible worst case assumptions, as demanded by the quality food sector, risk estimates and hazard quotients were estimated to be low or negligible. For example, the human health risk of E. coli 0157 illness from exposure to microbial residuals in quality-assured composts, through a ready-to-eat vegetable consumption exposure route, was estimated at ~10-8 per person per annum. For anaerobic digestion residues, 7 × 10-3cases of E. coli 0157 were estimated per annum, a potential contribution of 0.0007% of total UK cases. Hazard quotients for potential chemical contaminants in both products were insufficient in magnitude to merit detailed quantitative risk assessments. Stakeholder engagement and expert review was also a substantive feature of this study. We conclude that quality-assured, source-segregated products applied to land, under UK quality protocols and waste processing standards, pose negligible risks to human, animal, environmental and crop receptors, providing that risk management controls set within the standards and protocols are adhered to.

Scoping studies to establish the capability and utility of a real-time bioaerosol sensor to characterise emissions from environmental sources.

A novel dual excitation wavelength based bioaerosol sensor with multiple fluorescence bands called Spectral Intensity Bioaerosol Sensor (SIBS) has been assessed across five contrasting outdoor environments. The mean concentrations of total and fluorescent particles across the sites were highly variable being the highest at the agricultural farm (2.6 cm-3 and 0.48 cm-3, respectively) and the composting site (2.32 cm-3 and 0.46 cm-3, respectively) and the lowest at the dairy farm (1.03 cm-3 and 0.24 cm-3, respectively) and the sewage treatment works (1.03 cm-3 and 0.25 cm-3, respectively). In contrast, the number-weighted fluorescent fraction was lowest at the agricultural site (0.18) in comparison to the other sites indicating high variability in nature and magnitude of emissions from environmental sources. The fluorescence emissions data demonstrated that the spectra at different sites were multimodal with intensity differences largely at wavelengths located in secondary emission peaks for λex 280 and λex 370. This finding suggests differences in the molecular composition of emissions at these sites which can help to identify distinct fluorescence signature of different environmental sources. Overall this study demonstrated that SIBS provides additional spectral information compared to existing instruments and capability to resolve spectrally integrated signals from relevant biological fluorophores could improve selectivity and thus enhance discrimination and classification strategies for real-time characterisation of bioaerosols from environmental sources. However, detailed lab-based measurements in conjunction with real-world studies and improved numerical methods are required to optimise and validate these highly resolved spectral signatures with respect to the diverse atmospherically relevant biological fluorophores.

Environmental regulation in transition: Policy officials' views of regulatory instruments and their mapping to environmental risks.

This study re-analysed 14 semi-structured interviews with policy officials from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to explore the use of a variety of regulatory instruments and different levels of risk across 14 policy domains and 18 separately named risks. Interviews took place within a policy environment of a better regulation agenda and of broader regulatory reform. Of 619 (n) coded references to 5 categories of regulatory instrument, 'command and control' regulation (n = 257) and support mechanisms (n = 118) dominated the discussions, with a preference for 'command and control' cited in 8 of the policy domains. A framing analysis revealed officials' views on instrument effectiveness, including for sub-categories of the 5 key instruments. Views were mixed, though notably positive for economic instruments including taxation, fiscal instruments and information provision. An overlap analysis explored officials' mapping of public environmental risks to instrument types suited to their management. While officials frequently cite risk concepts generally within discussions, the extent of overlap for risks of specific significance was low across all risks. Only 'command and control' was mapped to risks of moderate significance in likelihood and impact severity. These results show that policy makers still prefer 'command and control' approaches when a certainty of outcome is sought and that alternative means are sought for lower risk situations. The detailed reasons for selection, including the mapping of certain instruments to specific risk characteristics, is still developing.

Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015.

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well.

Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention.

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on 'expert'- and 'literature-based' analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment.

A means for identifying and prioritising the treatment of uncertainty (UnISERA) in environmental risk assessments (ERAs) is tested, using three risk domains where ERA is an established requirement and one in which ERA practice is emerging. UnISERA's development draws on 19 expert elicitations across genetically modified higher plants, particulate matter, and agricultural pesticide release and is stress tested here for engineered nanomaterials (ENM). We are concerned with the severity of uncertainty; its nature; and its location across four accepted stages of ERAs. Using an established uncertainty scale, the risk characterisation stage of ERA harbours the highest severity level of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating expressions of risk. Combined epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is the dominant nature of uncertainty. The dominant location of uncertainty is associated with data in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. Testing UnISERA produced agreements of 55%, 90%, and 80% for the severity level, nature and location dimensions of uncertainty between the combined case studies and the ENM stress test. UnISERA enables environmental risk analysts to prioritise risk assessment phases, groups of tasks, or individual ERA tasks and it can direct them towards established methods for uncertainty treatment.

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others.

Predicting Aspergillus fumigatus exposure from composting facilities using a dispersion model: A conditional calibration and validation.

Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are unclear. Exposure levels are difficult to quantify as established sampling methods are costly, time-consuming and current data provide limited temporal and spatial information. Confidence in dispersion model outputs in this context would be advantageous to provide a more detailed exposure assessment. We present the calibration and validation of a recognised atmospheric dispersion model (ADMS) for bioaerosol exposure assessments. The model was calibrated by a trial and error optimisation of observed Aspergillus fumigatus concentrations at different locations around a composting site. Validation was performed using a second dataset of measured concentrations for a different site. The best fit between modelled and measured data was achieved when emissions were represented as a single area source, with a temperature of 29°C. Predicted bioaerosol concentrations were within an order of magnitude of measured values (1000-10,000CFU/m3) at the validation site, once minor adjustments were made to reflect local differences between the sites (r2>0.7 at 150, 300, 500 and 600m downwind of source). Results suggest that calibrated dispersion modelling can be applied to make reasonable predictions of bioaerosol exposures at multiple sites and may be used to inform site regulation and operational management.

Risk management for drinking water safety in low and middle income countries - cultural influences on water safety plan (WSP) implementation in urban water utilities.

We investigated cultural influences on the implementation of water safety plans (WSPs) using case studies from WSP pilots in India, Uganda and Jamaica. A comprehensive thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n=150 utility customers, n=32 WSP 'implementers' and n=9 WSP 'promoters'), field observations and related documents revealed 12 cultural themes, offered as 'enabling', 'limiting', or 'neutral', that influence WSP implementation in urban water utilities to varying extents. Aspects such as a 'deliver first, safety later' mind set; supply system knowledge management and storage practices; and non-compliance are deemed influential. Emergent themes of cultural influence (ET1 to ET12) are discussed by reference to the risk management, development studies and institutional culture literatures; by reference to their positive, negative or neutral influence on WSP implementation. The results have implications for the utility endorsement of WSPs, for the impact of organisational cultures on WSP implementation; for the scale-up of pilot studies; and they support repeated calls from practitioner communities for cultural attentiveness during WSP design. Findings on organisational cultures mirror those from utilities in higher income nations implementing WSPs - leadership, advocacy among promoters and customers (not just implementers) and purposeful knowledge management are critical to WSP success.

U.K. Foot and Mouth Disease: A Systemic Risk Assessment of Existing Controls.

This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted 'features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action.

Insights into the biodegradation of weathered hydrocarbons in contaminated soils by bioaugmentation and nutrient stimulation.

The potential for biotransformation of weathered hydrocarbon residues in soils collected from two commercial oil refinery sites (Soil A and B) was studied in microcosm experiments. Soil A has previously been subjected to on-site bioremediation and it was believed that no further degradation was possible while soil B has not been subjected to any treatment. A number of amendment strategies including bioaugmentation with hydrocarbon degrader, biostimulation with nutrients and soil grinding, were applied to the microcosms as putative biodegradation improvement strategies. The hydrocarbon concentrations in each amendment group were monitored throughout 112 days incubation. Microcosms treated with biostimulation (BS) and biostimulation/bioaugmentation (BS + BA) showed the most significant reductions in the aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon fractions. However, soil grinding was shown to reduce the effectiveness of a nutrient treatment on the extent of biotransformation by up to 25% and 20% for the aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon fractions, respectively. This is likely due to the disruption to the indigenous microbial community in the soil caused by grinding. Further, ecotoxicological responses (mustard seed germination and Microtox assays) showed that a reduction of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) concentration in soil was not directly correlable to reduction in toxicity; thus monitoring TPH alone is not sufficient for assessing the environmental risk of a contaminated site after remediation.

China's soil and groundwater management challenges: Lessons from the UK's experience and opportunities for China.

There are a number of specific opportunities for UK and China to work together on contaminated land management issues as China lacks comprehensive and systematic planning for sustainable risk based land management, encompassing both contaminated soil and groundwater and recycling and reuse of soil. It also lacks comprehensive risk assessment systems, structures to support risk management decision making, processes for verification of remediation outcome, systems for record keeping and preservation and integration of contamination issues into land use planning, along with procedures for ensuring effective health and safety considerations during remediation projects, and effective evaluation of costs versus benefits and overall sustainability. A consequence of the absence of these overarching frameworks has been that remediation takes place on an ad hoc basis. At a specific site management level, China lacks capabilities in site investigation and consequent risk assessment systems, in particular related to conceptual modelling and risk evaluation. There is also a lack of shared experience of practical deployment of remediation technologies in China, analogous to the situation before the establishment of the independent, non-profit organisation CL:AIRE (Contaminated Land: Applications In Real Environments) in 1999 in the UK. Many local technology developments are at lab-scale or pilot-scale stage without being widely put into use. Therefore, a shared endeavour is needed to promote the development of technically and scientifically sound land management as well as soil and human health protection to improve the sustainability of the rapid urbanisation in China.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector.