The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise.

The ability of reefs to protect coastlines from storm-driven flooding hinges on their capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise. Here, we show how and whether coral restoration could achieve the often-cited goal of reversing the impacts of coral-reef degradation to preserve this essential function. We combined coral-growth measurements and carbonate-budget assessments of reef-accretion potential at Buck Island Reef, U.S. Virgin Islands, with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify future coastal flooding under various coral-restoration, sea-level rise, and storm scenarios. Our results provide guidance on how restoration of Acropora palmata, if successful, could mitigate the most extreme impacts of coastal flooding by reversing projected trajectories of reef erosion and allowing reefs to keep pace with the ~0.5 m of sea-level rise expected by 2100 with moderate carbon-emissions reductions. This highlights the potential long-term benefits of pursuing coral-reef restoration alongside climate-change mitigation to support the persistence of essential coral-reef ecosystem services.

Recovery of a large herbivore changes regulation of seagrass productivity in a naturally grazed Caribbean ecosystem.

What happens in meadows after populations of natural grazers rebound following centuries of low abundance? Many seagrass ecosystems are now experiencing this phenomenon with the recovery of green turtles (Chelonia mydas), large-bodied marine herbivores that feed on seagrasses. These seagrass ecosystems provide a rare opportunity to study ecosystem-wide shifts that result from a recovery of herbivores. We evaluate changes in regulation of seagrass productivity in a naturally grazed tropical ecosystem by (1) comparing Thalassia testudinum productivity in grazed and ungrazed areas and (2) evaluating potential regulating mechanisms of T. testudinum productivity. We established 129 green turtle exclusion cages in grazed and ungrazed areas to quantify T. testudinum growth (linear, area, mass, productivity : biomass [P:B]). In each exclosure, we recorded temperature, irradiance, water depth, nitrogen : phosphorus ratio (N:P) of blade tissue, grazing intensity before cage placement, and T. testudinum structural and nutrient characteristics. Thalassia testudinum exhibited compensatory growth in grazed areas via stimulated blade linear growth, blade area growth, and P:B across seasonal high and low growth periods and in shallow (3-4 m) and deep (9-10 m) seagrass meadows. Irradiance, depth, and N:P ratios had significant roles in regulating mass growth and P:B of T. testudinum in ungrazed areas. Depth was a significant regulating factor of mass growth and P:B in grazed areas; rates were higher and more variable in shallow meadows than in deep meadows. Grazing intensity was also a significant regulating factor for P:B, stimulating tissue turnover with increasing grazing pressure. This study provides important insights into how recovery of a large marine herbivore can result in dramatic, sustainable changes in the regulation of seagrass productivity. We also highlight the need for a historical perspective and use of appropriate indicators, including P:B and grazing intensity, when evaluating seagrass response to green turtle grazing as meadows are returned to a natural grazed state. In an age of green turtle recovery and global seagrass decline due to anthropogenic threats, a thorough understanding of green turtle-seagrass interactions at the ecosystem level is critical to ensure the restoration of seagrass ecosystems and continued recovery of green turtle populations.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities.