Preventing food waste in subsidy-based university dining systems: An artificial neural network-aided model under uncertainty.

Food waste planning at universities is often a complex matter due to the large volume of food and variety of services. A major portion of university food waste arises from dining systems including meal booking and distribution. Although dining systems have a significant role in generating food wastes, few studies have designed prediction models that could control such wastes based on reservation data and behavior of students at meal delivery times. To fill this gap, analyzing meal booking systems at universities, the present study proposed a new model based on machine learning to reduce the food waste generated at major universities that provide food subsidies. Students' reservation and their presence or absence at the dining hall (show/no-show rate) at mealtime were incorporated in data analysis. Given the complexity of the relationship between the attributes and the uncertainty observed in user behavior, a model was designed to analyze definite and random components of demand. An artificial neural network-based model designed for demand prediction provided a two-step prediction approach to dealing with uncertainty in actual demand. In order to estimate the lowest total cost based on the cost of waste and the shortage penalty cost, an uncertainty-based analysis was conducted at the final step of the research. This study formed a framework that could reduce the food waste volume by up to 79% and control the penalty and waste cost in the case study. The model was investigated with cost analysis and the results proved its efficiency in reducing total cost.

Designing an optimal inventory management model for the blood supply chain: Synthesis of reusable simulation and neural network.

Blood supply managers in the blood supply chain have always sought to create enough reserves to increase access to different blood products and reduce the mortality rate resulting from expired blood. Managers' adequate and timely response to their customers is considered vital due to blood perishability, uncertainty of blood demand, and the direct relationship between the availability/lack of blood supply and human life. Further to this, hospitals' awareness of the optimal amount of requests from suppliers is vital to reducing blood return and blood loss, since the loss of blood products surely leads to high expenses. This paper aims to design an optimal management model of blood transfusion network by a synthesis of reusable simulation technique (applicable to all bases) and deep neural network (the latest neural network technique) with multiple recursive layers in the blood supply chain so that the costs of blood waste, return, and shortage can be reduced. The model was implemented on and developed for the blood transfusion network of Khorasan Razavi, which has 6 main bases active from October 2015 to October 2017. In order to validate the data, the data results of the variables examined with the real data were compared with those of the simulation, and the insignificant difference between them was investigated by t test. The solution of the model facilitated a better prediction of the amount of hospital demand, the optimal amount of safety reserves in the bases, the optimal number of hospital orders, and the optimal amount of hospital delivery. This prediction helps significantly reduce the return of blood units to bases, increase availability of inventories, and reduce costs.

Simulation of Quality Death Spirals based on Human Resources Dynamics.

Although the hospital managers always try to improve the quality of the medical services, sometimes their efforts might affect reversely and push the system in what is so commonly called as "the death spirals of quality." The most important reason of falling into these spirals is the lack of a systemic thought that considers the feedback relationships between the numerous effective variables in the system performance, such as human resources service capacity. In this regard, the purpose of the present research is to design and simulate a dynamic human resources service capacity-based model to demonstrate the death spirals of quality phenomenon based on the service time per service and the possibility of error generation along with identifying the policies to cope with them. The system dynamics simulation approach is used to show the dynamics of the capacity of service from the standpoint of human resources. A model is simulated for the services of a hospital clinic as a case study. The simulation results of the designed dynamic model express that applying the desired policies for the case study can provide a good basis for fighting these spirals in a dynamic situation.

Assessing the Relative Performance of Nurses Using Data Envelopment Analysis Matrix (DEAM).

Assessing employee performance is one of the most important issue in healthcare management services. Because of their direct relationship with patients, nurses are also the most influential hospital staff who play a vital role in providing healthcare services. In this paper, a novel Data Envelopment Analysis Matrix (DEAM) approach is proposed for assessing the performance of nurses based on relative efficiency. The proposed model consists of five input variables (including type of employment, work experience, training hours, working hours and overtime hours) and eight output variables (the outputs are amount of hours each nurse spend on each of the eight activities including documentation, medical instructions, wound care and patient drainage, laboratory sampling, assessment and control care, follow-up and counseling and para-clinical measures, attendance during visiting and discharge suction) have been tested on 30 nurses from the heart department of a hospital in Iran. After determining the relative efficiency of each nurse based on the DEA model, the nurses' performance were evaluated in a DEAM format. As results the nurses were divided into four groups; superstars, potential stars, those who are needed to be trained effectively and question marks. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we have drawn some recommendations to policy makers in order to improve and maintain the performance of each of these groups. The proposed approach provides a practical framework for hospital managers so that they can assess the relative efficiency of nurses, plan and take steps to improve the quality of healthcare delivery.