Retrospective analysis of dissemination of the 2.MED1 phylogenetic branch of Yersinia pestis in the Caucasus.

The 2.MED1 phylogenetic branch of Yersinia pestis of the medieval biovar became widespread in the Caspian Sea region, the Caucasus, and the Northern Aral Sea region in the 20th century, causing outbreaks and epizootics of plague there. Some of the formed natural foci of 2.MED1 still show epizootic activity and retain their epidemic potential. In this work, we carried out a phylogenetic analysis of 46 Y. pestis strains of the medieval biovar isolated in the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and the Northern Aral Sea regions during epidemic outbreaks and epizootics from 1922-2014. The obtained phylogenetic data, together with epidemiological and epizootological data accumulated over a period of about a hundred years, indicate the presence of two waves of penetration of the 2.MED1 branch into the Caucasus. The first occurred, apparently, in the first half of the 20th century as a result of the penetration of 2.MED1 from the foci of the Northern and North-Western Caspian Sea. The second wave was caused by the spread of 2.MED1 from the Northern Aral to the foci of the North-Western, Northern and Eastern Caspian Sea regions at the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, followed by introduction into the Pre-Caucasus and Transcaucasia. The rapid spread of 2.MED1 could be associated with the transfer of the pathogen by land and sea transport in the process of economic activity of the population.

Evolution and circulation of Yersinia pestis in the Northern Caspian and Northern Aral Sea regions in the 20th-21st centuries.

According to the whole genome SNP analysis of 38 Yersinia pestis strains isolated in the foci of the Northern Caspian and Northern Aral Sea regions in the 20th-early 21st centuries, between 1912 and 2015, the spatial and temporal structure of the 2.MED population of a medieval biovar in this region was determined. A phylogenetic branch 2.MED4 was identified which preceded the 2.MED1 branch that diverged later. 2.MED1 strains became the etiological agent of high-mortality plague outbreaks that occurred in the Northern Caspian region at the beginning of the 20th century. Later in the 20th century, the 2.MED1 branch became widespread in the Caspian Sea region, Caucasus, and vast areas of Central Asia. Based on the data of phylogenetic analysis, as well as epidemiological and epizootiological data, we reconstructed the paths of spread of the 2.MED1 branch in the Northern Caspian Sea region and in the Northern subzone of the Central Asian deserts. It is shown, that the reason for the activation of plague foci in the Northern Caspian region in the second half of the 20th century after a long inter-epizootic period caused by cyclical climate warming was the return of 2.MED1 from the foci of the Northern Aral Sea region. This led to the formation of stable plague foci in the Northern Caspian Sea region and Pre-Caucasus, which manifested epizootic activity in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries.