Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA.

OBJECTIVE: Mathematical models have gained traction when estimating cases of foodborne illness. Model structures vary due to differences in data availability. This begs the question as to whether differences in foodborne illness rates internationally are real or due to differences in modelling approaches.Difficulties in comparing illness rates have come into focus with COVID-19 infection rates being contrasted between countries. Furthermore, with post-EU Exit trade talks ongoing, being able to understand and compare foodborne illness rates internationally is a vital part of risk assessments related to trade in food commodities. DESIGN: We compared foodborne illness estimates for the United Kingdom (UK) with those from Australia, Canada and the USA. We then undertook sensitivity analysis, by recreating the mathematical models used in each country, to understand the impact of some of the key differences in approach and to enable more like-for-like comparisons. RESULTS: Published estimates of overall foodborne illness rates in the UK were lower than the other countries. However, when UK estimates were adjusted to a more like-for-like approach to the other countries, differences were smaller and often had overlapping credible intervals. When comparing rates by specific pathogens, there were fewer differences between countries. The few large differences found, such as virus rates in Canada, could at least partly be traced to methodological differences. CONCLUSION: Foodborne illness estimation models are country specific, making international comparisons problematic. Some of the disparities in estimated rates between countries can be shown to be attributed to differences in methodology rather than real differences in risk.

Rapid assessment of insect pollination services to inform decision-making.

Pollinator declines have prompted efforts to assess how land-use change affects insect pollinators and pollination services in agricultural landscapes. Yet many tools to measure insect pollination services require substantial landscape-scale data and technical expertise. In expert workshops, 3 straightforward methods (desk-based method, field survey, and empirical manipulation with exclusion experiments) for rapid insect pollination assessment at site scale were developed to provide an adaptable framework that is accessible to nonspecialist with limited resources. These methods were designed for TESSA (Toolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-Based Assessment) and allow comparative assessment of pollination services at a site of conservation interest and in its most plausible alternative state (e.g., converted to agricultural land). We applied the methods at a nature reserve in the United Kingdom to estimate the value of insect pollination services provided by the reserve. The economic value of pollination services provided by the reserve ranged from US$6163 to US$11,546/year. The conversion of the reserve to arable land would provide no insect pollination services and a net annual benefit from insect-pollinated crop production of approximately $1542/year (US$24∙ha-1 ∙year-1 ). The methods had wide applicability and were readily adapted to different insect-pollinated crops: rape (Brassica napus) and beans (Vicia faba) crops. All methods were rapidly employed under a low budget. The relatively less robust methods that required fewer resources yielded higher estimates of annual insect pollination benefit.

Diversidad y Conservación de Gasterópodos Subterráneos de Agua Dulce en los Estados Unidos y en México Resumen Las declinaciones de los polinizadores han impulsado los esfuerzos por evaluar cómo el cambio del uso de suelo afecta a los insectos polinizadores y los servicios de polinización en los paisajes agrícolas. Aun así, muchas de las herramientas para medir los servicios de los insectos polinizadores requieren datos sustanciales a escala de paisaje y el conocimiento de expertos. Desarrollamos tres métodos sencillos (método de gabinete, censo de campo y manipulación empírica con experimentos de exclusión) durante algunos talleres de expertos para la evaluación rápida de la polinización por insectos a escala de sitio con el objetivo de proporcionar un marco de trabajo adaptable y accesible para quienes no son especialistas y cuentan con recursos limitados. Estos métodos fueron diseñados para TESSA (Toolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-Based Assessment, en inglés) y permiten la evaluación comparativa de los servicios de polinización en los sitios de interés para la conservación y su estado alternativo más plausible (p. ej.: convertido a suelo agrícola). Aplicamos los métodos en una reserva natural del Reino Unido para estimar el valor de los servicios de polinización por insectos que proporciona la reserva. El valor económico de los servicios de polinización que proporciona la reserva varió desde US$6,163 a US$11,546 al año-1 . La conversión de la reserva a suelo arable no proporcionaría servicios de polinización por insectos, pero sí un beneficio anual neto a partir de la producción de cultivos polinizados por insectos de aproximadamente $1,542 al año-1 (US$24 ha-1 año-1 ). Los métodos tuvieron una aplicabilidad generalizada y estaban ya adaptados a los diferentes cultivos polinizados por insectos: cultivos de colza (Brassica napus) y habas (Vicia faba). Todos los métodos pudieron usarse con bajo presupuesto. Los métodos relativamente menos robustos que requirieron menos recursos produjeron estimados más elevados del beneficio anual de la polinización por insectos.

A photovoice assessment for illuminating the role of inland fisheries to livelihoods and the local challenges experienced through the lens of fishers in a climate-driven lake of Malawi.

Small-scale inland capture fisheries provide an important source of nutritious food, employment and income to millions of people in developing countries, particularly in rural environments where limited alternatives exist. However, the sector is one of most under-valued fisheries sectors and is increasingly experiencing environmental change. This study adopts a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and investigates how important a fluctuating inland fishery is to livelihoods, and how local perceptions on challenges corresponds to global evidence. Through an innovative participatory method; photovoice, the lived experiences and perceptions of fishers are depicted. The findings illuminate the valuable role of the sector to food and nutrition security and the complex nexus with vulnerability to climate change. The study responds to the call for more local level assessments of the impacts of climate change on inland fisheries in data-limited environments, and the value of the sector in underpinning the Sustainable Development Goals.

Trade and dietary preferences can determine micronutrient security in the United Kingdom.

Food production, dietary choices, climate change, trade tariffs and future responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are some of the factors affecting global food security. Here we examine how micronutrient security has varied in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 2017, before Brexit, taking supply and demand driver changes into account. We also introduce future scenarios to see how a more plant-based diet and/or differing trade arrangement post-European Union exit and COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply of nutrients. Results show that trading agreements have affected several key micronutrients during the past 60 years and are likely to be influential in a post-Brexit United Kingdom. Changes in dietary patterns, which influence how much animal- and plant-based products are consumed, have also affected micronutrient security and are likely to do so in the future with increased interest in consuming a more plant-based diet.

Potential human transmission of amyloid ß pathology: surveillance and risks.

Studies in experimental animals show transmissibility of amyloidogenic proteins associated with prion diseases, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and other neurodegenerative diseases. Although these data raise potential concerns for public health, convincing evidence for human iatrogenic transmission only exists for prions and amyloid ß after systemic injections of contaminated growth hormone extracts or dura mater grafts derived from cadavers. Even though these procedures are now obsolete, some reports raise the possibility of iatrogenic transmission of amyloid ß through putatively contaminated neurosurgical equipment. Iatrogenic transmission of amyloid ß might lead to amyloid deposition in the brain parenchyma and blood vessel walls, potentially resulting in cerebral amyloid angiopathy after several decades. Cerebral amyloid angiopathy can cause life-threatening brain haemorrhages; yet, there is no proof that the transmission of amyloid ß can also lead to Alzheimer's dementia. Large, long-term epidemiological studies and sensitive, cost-efficient tools to detect amyloid are needed to better understand any potential routes of amyloid ß transmission and to clarify whether other similar proteopathic seeds, such as tau or α-synuclein, can also be transferred iatrogenically.

Rethinking the food system for human health in the Anthropocene.

The current global food system is becoming increasingly unsustainable and is having negative impacts on planetary and human health. It is essential that human health is placed at the centre of a redesigned food system, as that will also help ensure planetary health.

Replanting of first-cycle oil palm results in a second wave of biodiversity loss.

Conversion of forest to oil palm plantations results in a significant loss of biodiversity. Despite this, first-cycle oil palm plantations can sustain relatively high biodiversity compared to other crops. However, the long-term effects of oil palm agriculture on flora and fauna are unknown. Oil palm has a 25-year commercial lifespan before it must be replanted, due to reduced productivity and difficulty of harvesting. Loss of the complex vegetation structure of oil palm plantations during the replanting process will likely have impacts on the ecosystem at a local and landscape scale. However, the effect of replanting on biodiversity is poorly understood.Here, we investigate the effects of replanting oil palm on soil macrofauna communities. We assessed ordinal richness, abundance, and community composition of soil macrofauna in first- (25- to 27-year-old) and second-cycle oil palm (freshly cleared, 1-year-old, 3-year-old, and 7-year-old mature).Macrofauna abundance and richness drastically declined immediately after replanting. Macrofauna richness showed some recovery 7 years after replanting, but was still 19% lower than first-cycle oil palm. Macrofauna abundance recovered to similar levels to that of first-cycle oil palm plantations, 1 year after replanting. This was mainly due to high ant abundance, possibly due to the increased understory vegetation as herbicides are not used at this age. However, there were subsequent declines in macrofauna abundance 3 and 7 years after replanting, resulting in a 59% drop in macrofauna abundance compared to first-cycle levels. Furthermore, soil macrofauna community composition in all ages of second-cycle oil palm was different to first-cycle plantations, with decomposers suffering particular declines.After considerable biodiversity loss due to forest conversion for oil palm, belowground invertebrate communities suffer a second wave of biodiversity loss due to replanting. This is likely to have serious implications for soil invertebrate diversity and agricultural sustainability in oil palm landscapes, due to the vital ecosystem functions that soil macrofauna provide.

To what extent has sustainable intensification in England been achieved?

Agricultural intensification has significantly increased yields and fed growing populations across the planet, but has also led to considerable environmental degradation. In response an alternative process of 'Sustainable Intensification' (SI), whereby food production increases while environmental impacts are reduced, has been advocated as necessary, if not sufficient, for delivering food and environmental security. However, the extent to which SI has begun, the main drivers of SI, and the degree to which degradation is simply 'offshored' are uncertain. In this study we assess agroecosystem services in England and two contrasting sub-regions, majority-arable Eastern England and majority-pastoral South-Western England, since 1950 by analysing ecosystem service metrics and developing a simple system dynamics model. We find that rapid agricultural intensification drove significant environmental degradation in England in the early 1980s, but that most ecosystem services except farmland biodiversity began to recover after 2000, primarily due to reduced livestock and fertiliser usage decoupling from high yields. This partially follows the trajectory of an Environmental Kuznets Curve, with yields and GDP growth decoupling from environmental degradation above ~£17,000 per capita per annum. Together, these trends suggest that SI has begun in England. However, the lack of recovery in farmland biodiversity, and the reduction in UK food self-sufficiency resulting in some agricultural impacts being 'offshored', represent major negative trade-offs. Maintaining yields and restoring biodiversity while also addressing climate change, offshored degradation, and post-Brexit subsidy changes will require significant further SI in the future.

Riding on the wind: volatile compounds dictate selection of grassland seedlings by snails.

Background and Aims: Seedling herbivory is an important selective filter in many plant communities. The removal of preferred food plants by both vertebrate and, more commonly, invertebrate herbivores can destroy entire seedling cohorts, and consequently dictate plant community assembly. Nevertheless, our understanding of how and why some seedlings are more prone to herbivore attack than their neighbours remains limited. For seedlings, where even minor tissue damage is fatal, avoiding contact with herbivores is probably advantageous and, on this basis, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are strong candidates to fulfil a primary defensive role. Methods: We quantified seedling selection by snails (Cornu aspersum) for 14 common, European grassland species. Seedling acceptability was subsequently compared with species-specific expression of constitutive secondary defence metabolites (CSDMs), and VOCs to determine their relative influence on seedling selection. Results: We found no relationship between seedling acceptability and CSDMs, but seedling selection was strongly associated with VOC profiles. Monoterpenes (specifically ß-ocimene) were identified as likely attractants, while green leaf volatiles (GLVs) (3-hexen-1-ol acetate) were strongly associated with low seedling acceptability. Conclusions: By elucidating a relationship between VOCs and seedling acceptability, we contradict a long-held, but poorly tested, assumption that seedling selection by herbivores in (semi-)natural plant communities centres on CSDMs. Instead, our results corroborate recent work showing how GLVs, including 3-hexen-1-ol acetate, deter crop seedling selection by molluscs. Although our failure to establish any early-ontogenetic relationship between VOCs and CSDMs also suggests that the former do not 'advertise' possession of the latter, we nevertheless reveal the role that VOCs play in defending seedlings against herbivory before lethal damage occurs.

Rhizosphere Bacterial Communities Differ According to Fertilizer Regimes and Cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata L.) Harvest Time, but Not Aphid Herbivory.

Rhizosphere microbial communities are known to be highly diverse and strongly dependent on various attributes of the host plant, such as species, nutritional status, and growth stage. High-throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing has been used to characterize the rhizosphere bacterial community of many important crop species, but this is the first study to date to characterize the bacterial and archaeal community of Brassica oleracea var. capitata. The study also tested the response of the bacterial community to fertilizer type (organic or synthetic) and N dosage (high or low), in addition to plant age (9 or 12 weeks) and aphid (Myzus persicae) herbivory (present/absent). The impact of aboveground herbivory on belowground microbial communities has received little attention in the literature, and since the type (organic or mineral) and amount of fertilizer applications are known to affect M. percicae populations, these treatments were applied at agricultural rates to test for synergistic effects on the soil bacterial community. Fertilizer type and plant growth were found to result in significantly different rhizosphere bacterial communities, while there was no effect of aphid herbivory. Several operational taxonomic units were identified as varying significantly in abundance between the treatment groups and age cohorts. These included members of the S-oxidizing genus Thiobacillus, which was significantly more abundant in organically fertilized 12-week-old cabbages, and the N-fixing cyanobacteria Phormidium, which appeared to decline in synthetically fertilized soils relative to controls. These responses may be an effect of accumulating root-derived glucosinolates in the B. oleracea rhizosphere and increased N-availability, respectively.

Something in the air? The impact of volatiles on mollusc attack of oilseed rape seedlings.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mounting concerns about balancing food security with the environmental impacts of agro-chemical use underpin the need to better understand the mechanisms by which crop plants, particularly during the vulnerable seedling stage, attract or repel herbivores. METHODS: The feeding preferences of the mollusc Helix aspersa were determined for several oilseed rape (Brassica napus) cultivars and a rank order of acceptability was established. This was compared with glucosinolate concentrations and volatile organic compound (VOC) profiles to determine whether seedling acceptability to molluscs was linked to either form of defence. KEY RESULTS: While VOC profiles for each oilseed rape cultivar could be separated by canonical discriminant analysis and associated with mollusc feeding preferences, glucosinolate profiles were unrelated to snail feeding behaviour. A mixture of monoterpenes (α-pinene, ß-myrcene and δ-3-carene) was identified as a putative attractant, while a blend of the green leaf volatiles 3-hexen-1-ol, 3-hexen-1-ol acetate and the monoterpene α-terpinene was identified as a putative repellent mix. Added to the VOC profile of oilseed rape seedlings, the 'repellent' mix reduced mollusc selection, while the 'attractant' mix had no effect. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the widespread assumption that seedling selection by generalist herbivores is governed by chemical defence and taste, we show that olfactory cues may be more important. Oilseed rape may be atypical of wild plants, but our ability to identify repellent volatile organic compounds that can influence snail olfactory selection points to new methods for crop protection using modified VOC profiles during the vulnerable seedling stage.

Drivers for emerging issues in animal and plant health.

The history of agriculture includes many animal and plant disease events that have had major consequences for the sector, as well as for humans. At the same time, human activities beyond agriculture have often driven the emergence of diseases. The more that humans expand the footprint of the global population, encroach into natural habitats, alter these habitats to extract resources and intensify food production, as well as move animals, people and commodities along with the pathogens they carry, the greater the potential for pathogens and pests to spread and for infection to emerge or re-emerge. While essential to human well-being, producing food also plays a major role in disease dynamics. The risk of emergence of pests and pathogens has increased as a consequence of global changes in the way food is produced, moved and consumed. Climate change is likely to increase pressure on the availability of food and provide newly suitable conditions for invasive pests and pathogens. Human population displacements due to economic, political and humanitarian crises represent another set of potential drivers for emerging issues. The overlapping drivers of plant, animal and human disease emergence and environmental changes point towards the concept of 'One Health'. This paradigm underlines the urgent need to understand the influence of human behaviour and incorporate this understanding into our approach to emerging risks. For this, we face two major challenges. One is cultural; the second is methodological. We have to look at systems not under the narrow view of specific hazards but with a wider approach to system dynamics, and consider a broad spectrum of potential outcomes in terms of risk. In addition, we have to make sense of the vast amounts of data that are available in the modern age. This paper aims to help in preparing for the cultural and methodological shifts needed in our approach to emerging risks.

The Effects of Diesel Exhaust Pollution on Floral Volatiles and the Consequences for Honey Bee Olfaction.

There is growing evidence of a substantial decline in pollinators within Europe and North America, most likely caused by multiple factors such as diseases, poor nutrition, habitat loss, insecticides, and environmental pollution. Diesel exhaust could be a contributing factor to this decline, since we found that diesel exhaust rapidly degrades floral volatiles, which honey bees require for flower recognition. In this study, we exposed eight of the most common floral volatiles to diesel exhaust in order to investigate whether it can affect volatile mediated plant-pollinator interaction. Exposure to diesel exhaust altered the blend of common flower volatiles significantly: myrcene was considerably reduced, ß-ocimene became undetectable, and ß-caryophyllene was transformed into its cis-isomer isocaryophyllene. Proboscis extension response (PER) assays showed that the alterations of the blend reduced the ability of honey bees to recognize it. The chemically reactive nitrogen oxides fraction of diesel exhaust gas was identified as capable of causing degradation of floral volatiles.

Diesel exhaust rapidly degrades floral odours used by honeybees.

Honeybees utilise floral odours when foraging for flowers; we investigated whether diesel exhaust pollution could interrupt these floral odour stimuli. A synthetic blend of eight floral chemicals, identified from oilseed rape, was exposed to diesel exhaust pollution. Within one minute of exposure the abundances of four of the chemicals were significantly lowered, with two components rendered undetectable. Honeybees were trained to recognise the full synthetic odour mix; altering the blend, by removing the two chemicals rendered undetectable, significantly reduced the ability of the trained honeybees to recognize the altered odour. Furthermore, we found that at environmentally relevant levels the mono-nitrogen oxide (NOx) fraction of the exhaust gases was a key facilitator of this odour degradation. Such changes in recognition may impact upon a honeybee's foraging efficiency and therefore the pollination services that they provide.

Do asexual morphs of the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae, utilise the aphid sex pheromone? Behavioural and electrophysiological responses of M. persicae virginoparae to (4aS,7S,7aR)-nepetalactone and its effect on aphid performance.

The aphid sex pheromone component (4aS,7S,7aR)-nepetalactone is considered to be a potential tool for enhancing biological control of aphids. Studies have confirmed its potential to attract parasitoids, increase parasitism rates in the field and also alter the spatial distribution of parasitoids. An important aspect that has been overlooked is the impact that the introduction of nepetalactone may have on aphid populations already present in field or glasshouse environments. The most prevalent pest aphid populations in glasshouse and field environments are the asexual morphs, which are capable of exponential growth if populations are not controlled. The short-term implications of the sex pheromone on asexual aphids were observed through their behavioural response. Using Y-tube olfactometry, it is shown that virginoparae of the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae, are repelled by high concentrations of nepetalactone. Long-term effects of the pheromone which may span the aphid's life, or even generations, were assessed via mean relative growth rate (MRGR) and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm). Electroantennography also demonstrated that asexual female aphids are able to detect aphid sex pheromone components. To our knowledge, this is the first time it has been reported that M. persicae virginoparae are able to detect aphid sex pheromone components or that their behavioural response and/or performance has been studied. The implications of these results and their significance in understanding semiochemical communication are discussed.

Navigating the perfect storm: research strategies for socialecological systems in a rapidly evolving world.

The 'Perfect Storm' metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.