Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. The meta-scheduler optimizes the total execution time of simulations in the workflow, and helps improve overall human productivity. As an exemplar of the kind of studies that can be conducted using Mackenzie, we present a modeling study to understand the impact of vaccine-acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US. We use a 288 million node synthetic social contact network (digital twin) spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based model used for the epidemic simulations uses realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Computational experiments show that, for the simulation workload discussed above, MacKenzie is able to scale up well to 10K CPU cores. Our modeling results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K across the US. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. We also find that if vaccine acceptance could be increased by 10% in all states, averted infections could be increased from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total averted deaths could be increased from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% improvement) nationwide.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Data-driven mechanistic framework with stratified immunity and effective transmissibility for COVID-19 scenario projections.

Scenario-based modeling frameworks have been widely used to support policy-making at state and federal levels in the United States during the COVID-19 response. While custom-built models can be used to support one-off studies, sustained updates to projections under changing pandemic conditions requires a robust, integrated, and adaptive framework. In this paper, we describe one such framework, UVA-adaptive, that was built to support the CDC-aligned Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) across multiple rounds, as well as weekly/biweekly projections to Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and US Department of Defense during the COVID-19 response. Building upon an existing metapopulation framework, PatchSim, UVA-adaptive uses a calibration mechanism relying on adjustable effective transmissibility as a basis for scenario definition while also incorporating real-time datasets on case incidence, seroprevalence, variant characteristics, and vaccine uptake. Through the pandemic, our framework evolved by incorporating available data sources and was extended to capture complexities of multiple strains and heterogeneous immunity of the population. Here we present the version of the model that was used for the recent projections for SMH and VDH, describe the calibration and projection framework, and demonstrate that the calibrated transmissibility correlates with the evolution of the pathogen as well as associated societal dynamics.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of (i) an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; (ii) a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; (iii) a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; (iv) an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions. This pipeline can run 400 replicates of national runs in less than 33 h, and reduces the need for human intervention, resulting in faster turnaround times and higher reliability and accuracy of the results. Scientifically, the work has led to significant advances in real-time epidemic sciences.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

Detecting anomalies in X-ray diffraction images using convolutional neural networks.

Our understanding of life is based upon the interpretation of macromolecular structures and their dynamics. Almost 90% of currently known macromolecular models originated from electron density maps constructed using X-ray diffraction images. Even though diffraction images are critical for structure determination, due to their vast amounts and noisy, non-intuitive nature, their quality is rarely inspected. In this paper, we use recent advances in machine learning to automatically detect seven types of anomalies in X-ray diffraction images. For this purpose, we utilize a novel X-ray beam center detection algorithm, propose three different image representations, and compare the predictive performance of general-purpose classifiers and deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In benchmark tests on a set of 6,311 X-ray diffraction images, the proposed CNN achieved between 87% and 99% accuracy depending on the type of anomaly. Experimental results show that the proposed anomaly detection system can be considered suitable for early detection of sub-optimal data collection conditions and malfunctions at X-ray experimental stations.

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios - United States, April-September 2021.

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

Recognizing and validating ligands with CheckMyBlob.

Structure-guided drug design depends on the correct identification of ligands in crystal structures of protein complexes. However, the interpretation of the electron density maps is challenging and often burdened with confirmation bias. Ligand identification can be aided by automatic methods such as CheckMyBlob, a machine learning algorithm that learns to generalize ligand descriptions from sets of moieties deposited in the Protein Data Bank. Here, we present the CheckMyBlob web server, a platform that can identify ligands in unmodeled fragments of electron density maps or validate ligands in existing models. The server processes PDB/mmCIF and MTZ files and returns a ranking of 10 most likely ligands for each detected electron density blob along with interactive 3D visualizations. Additionally, for each prediction/validation, a plugin script is generated that enables users to conduct a detailed analysis of the server results in Coot. The CheckMyBlob web server is available at https://checkmyblob.bioreproducibility.org.

All Models Are Useful: Bayesian Ensembling for Robust High Resolution COVID-19 Forecasting.

Timely, high-resolution forecasts of infectious disease incidence are useful for policy makers in deciding intervention measures and estimating healthcare resource burden. In this paper, we consider the task of forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases at the county level for the United States. Although multiple methods have been explored for this task, their performance has varied across space and time due to noisy data and the inherent dynamic nature of the pandemic. We present a forecasting pipeline which incorporates probabilistic forecasts from multiple statistical, machine learning and mechanistic methods through a Bayesian ensembling scheme, and has been operational for nearly 6 months serving local, state and federal policymakers in the United States. While showing that the Bayesian ensemble is at least as good as the individual methods, we also show that each individual method contributes significantly for different spatial regions and time points. We compare our model's performance with other similar models being integrated into CDC-initiated COVID-19 Forecast Hub, and show better performance at longer forecast horizons. Finally, we also describe how such forecasts are used to increase lead time for training mechanistic scenario projections. Our work demonstrates that such a real-time high resolution forecasting pipeline can be developed by integrating multiple methods within a performance-based ensemble to support pandemic response. ACM REFERENCE FORMAT: Aniruddha Adiga, Lijing Wang, Benjamin Hurt, Akhil Peddireddy, Przemys-law Porebski,, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe. 2021. All Models Are Useful: Bayesian Ensembling for Robust High Resolution COVID-19 Forecasting. In Proceedings of ACM Conference (Conference'17) . ACM, New York, NY, USA, 9 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/nnnnnnn.nnnnnnn.

A study on the structure, mechanism, and biochemistry of kanamycin B dioxygenase (KanJ)-an enzyme with a broad range of substrates.

Kanamycin A is an aminoglycoside antibiotic isolated from Streptomyces kanamyceticus and used against a wide spectrum of bacteria, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Biosynthesis of kanamycin involves an oxidative deamination step catalyzed by kanamycin B dioxygenase (KanJ), thereby the C2' position of kanamycin B is transformed into a keto group upon release of ammonia. Here, we present for the first time, structural models of KanJ with several ligands, which along with the results of ITC binding assays and HPLC activity tests explain substrate specificity of the enzyme. The large size of the binding pocket suggests that KanJ can accept a broad range of substrates, which was confirmed by activity tests. Specificity of the enzyme with respect to its substrate is determined by the hydrogen bond interactions between the methylamino group of the antibiotic and highly conserved Asp134 and Cys150 as well as between hydroxyl groups of the substrate and Asn120 and Gln80. Upon antibiotic binding, the C terminus loop is significantly rearranged and Gln80 and Asn120, which are directly involved in substrate recognition, change their conformations. Based on reaction energy profiles obtained by density functional theory (DFT) simulations, we propose a mechanism of ketone formation involving the reactive FeIV  = O and proceeding either via OH rebound, which yields a hemiaminal intermediate or by abstraction of two hydrogen atoms, which leads to an imine species. At acidic pH, the latter involves a lower barrier than the OH rebound, whereas at basic pH, the barrier leading to an imine vanishes completely. DATABASES: Structural data are available in PDB database under the accession numbers: 6S0R, 6S0T, 6S0U, 6S0W, 6S0V, 6S0S. Diffraction images are available at the Integrated Resource for Reproducibility in Macromolecular Crystallography at http://proteindiffraction.org under DOIs: 10.18430/m36s0t, 10.18430/m36s0u, 10.18430/m36s0r, 10.18430/m36s0s, 10.18430/m36s0v, 10.18430/m36s0w. A data set collection of computational results is available in the Mendeley Data database under DOI: 10.17632/sbyzssjmp3.1 and in the ioChem-BD database under DOI: 10.19061/iochem-bd-4-18.

State-of-the-Art Data Management: Improving the Reproducibility, Consistency, and Traceability of Structural Biology and in Vitro Biochemical Experiments.

Efficient and comprehensive data management is an indispensable component of modern scientific research and requires effective tools for all but the most trivial experiments. The LabDB system developed and used in our laboratory was originally designed to track the progress of a structure determination pipeline in several large National Institutes of Health (NIH) projects. While initially designed for structural biology experiments, its modular nature makes it easily applied in laboratories of various sizes in many experimental fields. Over many years, LabDB has transformed into a sophisticated system integrating a range of biochemical, biophysical, and crystallographic experimental data, which harvests data both directly from laboratory instruments and through human input via a web interface. The core module of the system handles many types of universal laboratory management data, such as laboratory personnel, chemical inventories, storage locations, and custom stock solutions. LabDB also tracks various biochemical experiments, including spectrophotometric and fluorescent assays, thermal shift assays, isothermal titration calorimetry experiments, and more. LabDB has been used to manage data for experiments that resulted in over 1200 deposits to the Protein Data Bank (PDB); the system is currently used by the Center for Structural Genomics of Infectious Diseases (CSGID) and several large laboratories. This chapter also provides examples of data mining analyses and warnings about incomplete and inconsistent experimental data. These features, together with its capabilities for detailed tracking, analysis, and auditing of experimental data, make the described system uniquely suited to inspect potential sources of irreproducibility in life sciences research.

From 5Vs to 6Cs: Operationalizing Epidemic Data Management with COVID-19 Surveillance.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application dashboards were quickly developed to fill this gap, including those built by JHU, WHO, and CDC, but all of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific regions). In this paper, we describe our work developing our own COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, available at https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/, which offers a universal view of the pandemic while also allowing users to focus on the details that interest them. From the beginning, our goal was to provide a simple visual way to compare, organize, and track near-real-time surveillance data as the pandemic progresses. Our dashboard includes a number of advanced features for zooming, filtering, categorizing and visualizing multiple time series on a single canvas. In developing this dashboard, we have also identified 6 key metrics we call the 6Cs standard which we propose as a standard for the design and evaluation of real-time epidemic science dashboards. Our dashboard was one of the first released to the public, and remains one of the most visited and highly used. Our group uses it to support federal, state and local public health authorities, and it is used by people worldwide to track the pandemic evolution, build their own dashboards, and support their organizations as they plan their responses to the pandemic. We illustrate the utility of our dashboard by describing how it can be used to support data story-telling - an important emerging area in data science.

Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on the early global spread of COVID-19.

Global airline networks play a key role in the global importation of emerging infectious diseases. Detailed information on air traffic between international airports has been demonstrated to be useful in retrospectively validating and prospectively predicting case emergence in other countries. In this paper, we use a well-established metric known as effective distance on the global air traffic data from IATA to quantify risk of emergence for different countries as a consequence of direct importation from China, and compare it against arrival times for the first 24 countries. Using this model trained on official first reports from WHO, we estimate time of arrival (ToA) for all other countries. We then incorporate data on airline suspensions to recompute the effective distance and assess the effect of such cancellations in delaying the estimated arrival time for all other countries. Finally we use the infectious disease vulnerability indices to explain some of the estimated reporting delays.

Regioselectivity of hyoscyamine 6ß-hydroxylase-catalysed hydroxylation as revealed by high-resolution structural information and QM/MM calculations.

Hyoscyamine 6ß-hydroxylase (H6H) is a bifunctional non-heme 2-oxoglutarate/Fe2+-dependent dioxygenase that catalyzes the two final steps in the biosynthesis of scopolamine. Based on high resolution crystal structures of H6H from Datura metel, detailed information on substrate binding was obtained that provided insights into the onset of the enzymatic process. In particular, the role of two prominent residues was revealed - Glu-116 that interacts with the tertiary amine located on the hyoscyamine tropane moiety and Tyr-326 that forms CH-π hydrogen bonds with the hyoscyamine phenyl ring. The structures were used as the basis for QM/MM calculations that provided an explanation for the regioselectivity of the hydroxylation reaction on the hyoscyamine tropane moiety (C6 vs. C7) and quantified contributions of active site residues to respective barrier heights.

Molstack: A platform for interactive presentations of electron density and cryo-EM maps and their interpretations.

In the Special Issue on Tools for Protein Science in 2018, we presented Molstack: a concept of a cloud-based platform for sharing electron density maps and their interpretations. Molstack is a web platform that allows the interactive visualization of density maps through the simultaneous presentation of multiple datasets and models in a way that allows for easy pairwise comparison. We anticipated that the users of this conceptually simple platform would find many different uses for their projects, and we were not mistaken. We have observed researchers use Molstack to present experimental evidence for their models in the form of electron density maps, omit maps, and anomalous difference density maps. Users also employed Molstack to present alternative interpretations of densities, including rerefinements and speculative interpretations. While we anticipated these types of projects to be the main use cases, we were pleased to see Molstack used to display superpositions of different models, as a tool for story-driven presentations, and for collaboration as well. Here, we present developments in the platform that were driven by user feedback, highlight several cases that used Molstack to enhance the publication, and discuss possible directions for the platform.

The Integrated Resource for Reproducibility in Macromolecular Crystallography: Experiences of the first four years.

It has been increasingly recognized that preservation and public accessibility of primary experimental data are cornerstones necessary for the reproducibility of empirical sciences. In the field of molecular crystallography, many journals now recommend that authors of manuscripts presenting a new crystal structure should deposit their primary experimental data (X-ray diffraction images) to one of the dedicated resources created in recent years. Here, we describe our experiences developing the Integrated Resource for Reproducibility in Molecular Crystallography (IRRMC) and describe several examples of a crucial role that diffraction data can play in improving previously determined protein structures. In its first four years, several hundred crystallographers have deposited data from over 5200 diffraction experiments performed at over 60 different synchrotron beamlines or home sources all over the world. In addition to improving the resource and curating submitted data, we have been building a pipeline for extraction or, in some cases, reconstruction of the metadata necessary for seamless automated processing. Preliminary analysis indicates that about 95% of the archived data can be automatically reprocessed. A high rate of reprocessing success shows the feasibility of using the automated metadata extraction and automated processing as a validation step for the deposition of raw diffraction images. The IRRMC is guided by the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable data management principles.