Factors Impacting Physician Prognostic Accuracy in Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: A recent study showed that the accuracy of heart failure (HF) cardiologists and family doctors to predict mortality in outpatients with HF proved suboptimal, performing less well than models. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to evaluate patient and physician factors associated with physician accuracy. METHODS: The authors included outpatients with HF from 11 HF clinics. Family doctors and HF cardiologists estimated patient 1-year mortality. They calculated predicted mortality using the Seattle HF Model and followed patients for 1 year to record mortality (or urgent heart transplant or ventricular assist device implant as mortality-equivalent events). Using multivariable logistic regression, the authors evaluated associations among physician experience and confidence in estimates, duration of patient-physician relationship, patient-physician sex concordance, patient race, and predicted risk, with concordant results between physician and model predictions. RESULTS: Among 1,643 patients, 1-year event rate was 10% (95% CI: 8%-12%). One-half of the estimates showed discrepant results between model and physician predictions, mainly owing to physician risk overestimation. Discrepancies were more frequent with increasing patient risk from 38% in low-risk to ∼75% in high-risk patients. When making predictions on male patients, female HF cardiologists were 26% more likely to have discrepant predictions (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.58-0.94). HF cardiologist estimates in Black patients were 33% more likely to be discrepant (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.45-0.99). Low confidence in predictions was associated with discrepancy. Analyses restricted to high-confidence estimates showed inferior calibration to the model, with risk overestimation across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Discrepant physician and model predictions were more frequent in cases with perceived increased risk. Model predictions outperform physicians even when they are confident in their predictions. (Predicted Prognosis in Heart Failure [INTUITION]; NCT04009798).

Predicting 1-Year Mortality in Outpatients With Heart Failure With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction: Do Empiric Models Outperform Physician Intuitive Estimates? A Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have demonstrated that physicians often err in estimating patient prognosis. No studies have directly compared physician to model predictive performance in heart failure (HF). We aimed to compare the accuracy of physician versus model predictions of 1-year mortality. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study on 11 HF clinics in 5 provinces in Canada included consecutive consented outpatients with HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (<40%). By collecting clinical data, we calculated predicted 1-year mortality using the Seattle HF Model (SHFM), the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic HF score, and the HF Meta-Score. HF cardiologists and family doctors, blinded to model predictions, estimated patient 1-year mortality. During 1-year follow-up, we recorded the composite end point of mortality, urgent ventricular assist device implant, or heart transplant. We compared physicians and model discrimination (C statistic), calibration (observed versus predicted event rate), and risk reclassification. RESULTS: The study included 1643 patients with ambulatory HF with a mean age of 65 years, 24% female, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 28%. Over 1-year follow-up, 9% had an event. The SHFM had the best discrimination (SHFM C statistic 0.76; HF Meta-Score 0.73; Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure 0.70) and calibration. Physicians' discrimination differed little (0.75 for HF cardiologists and 0.73 for family doctors) but both physician groups substantially overestimated risk by >10% in both low- and high-risk patients (poor calibration). In risk reclassification analysis, among patients without events, the SHFM better classified 51% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 43% in comparison to family doctors. In patients with events, the SHFM erroneously assigned lower risk to 44% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 34% in comparison to family doctors. CONCLUSIONS: Family doctors and HF cardiologists showed adequate risk discrimination, with however substantial overestimation of absolute risk. Predictive models showed higher accuracy. Incorporating models in family and HF cardiology practices may improve patient care and resource use in HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04009798.

Trial of an Intervention to Improve Acute Heart Failure Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute heart failure are frequently or systematically hospitalized, often because the risk of adverse events is uncertain and the options for rapid follow-up are inadequate. Whether the use of a strategy to support clinicians in making decisions about discharging or admitting patients, coupled with rapid follow-up in an outpatient clinic, would affect outcomes remains uncertain. METHODS: In a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial conducted in Ontario, Canada, we randomly assigned 10 hospitals to staggered start dates for one-way crossover from the control phase (usual care) to the intervention phase, which involved the use of a point-of-care algorithm to stratify patients with acute heart failure according to the risk of death. During the intervention phase, low-risk patients were discharged early (in ≤3 days) and received standardized outpatient care, and high-risk patients were admitted to the hospital. The coprimary outcomes were a composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days after presentation and the composite outcome within 20 months. RESULTS: A total of 5452 patients were enrolled in the trial (2972 during the control phase and 2480 during the intervention phase). Within 30 days, death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes occurred in 301 patients (12.1%) who were enrolled during the intervention phase and in 430 patients (14.5%) who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.99; P = 0.04). Within 20 months, the cumulative incidence of primary-outcome events was 54.4% (95% CI, 48.6 to 59.9) among patients who were enrolled during the intervention phase and 56.2% (95% CI, 54.2 to 58.1) among patients who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.99). Fewer than six deaths or hospitalizations for any cause occurred in low- or intermediate-risk patients before the first outpatient visit within 30 days after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute heart failure who were seeking emergency care, the use of a hospital-based strategy to support clinical decision making and rapid follow-up led to a lower risk of the composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days than usual care. (Funded by the Ontario SPOR Support Unit and others; COACH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02674438.).

Reduction of dietary sodium to less than 100 mmol in heart failure (SODIUM-HF): an international, open-label, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dietary restriction of sodium has been suggested to prevent fluid overload and adverse outcomes for patients with heart failure. We designed the Study of Dietary Intervention under 100 mmol in Heart Failure (SODIUM-HF) to test whether or not a reduction in dietary sodium reduces the incidence of future clinical events. METHODS: SODIUM-HF is an international, open-label, randomised, controlled trial that enrolled patients at 26 sites in six countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and New Zealand). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class 2-3), and receiving optimally tolerated guideline-directed medical treatment. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), using a standard number generator and varying block sizes of two, four, or six, stratified by site, to either usual care according to local guidelines or a low sodium diet of less than 100 mmol (ie, <1500 mg/day). The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular-related admission to hospital, cardiovascular-related emergency department visit, or all-cause death within 12 months in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (ie, all randomly assigned patients). Safety was assessed in the ITT population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012179, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between March 24, 2014, and Dec 9, 2020, 806 patients were randomly assigned to a low sodium diet (n=397) or usual care (n=409). Median age was 67 years (IQR 58-74) and 268 (33%) were women and 538 (66%) were men. Between baseline and 12 months, the median sodium intake decreased from 2286 mg/day (IQR 1653-3005) to 1658 mg/day (1301-2189) in the low sodium group and from 2119 mg/day (1673-2804) to 2073 mg/day (1541-2900) in the usual care group. By 12 months, events comprising the primary outcome had occurred in 60 (15%) of 397 patients in the low sodium diet group and 70 (17%) of 409 in the usual care group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·89 [95% CI 0·63-1·26]; p=0·53). All-cause death occurred in 22 (6%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 17 (4%) in the usual care group (HR 1·38 [0·73-2·60]; p=0·32), cardiovascular-related hospitalisation occurred in 40 (10%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 51 (12%) patients in the usual care group (HR 0·82 [0·54-1·24]; p=0·36), and cardiovascular-related emergency department visits occurred in 17 (4%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 15 (4%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·21 [0·60-2·41]; p=0·60). No safety events related to the study treatment were reported in either group. INTERPRETATION: In ambulatory patients with heart failure, a dietary intervention to reduce sodium intake did not reduce clinical events. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the University Hospital Foundation, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Effect of Patient-Centered Transitional Care Services on Clinical Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: The PACT-HF Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Health care services that support the hospital-to-home transition can improve outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Objective: To test the effectiveness of the Patient-Centered Care Transitions in HF transitional care model in patients hospitalized for HF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial of 2494 adults hospitalized for HF across 10 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, from February 2015 to March 2016, with follow-up until November 2016. Interventions: Hospitals were randomized to receive the intervention (n = 1104 patients), in which nurse-led self-care education, a structured hospital discharge summary, a family physician follow-up appointment less than 1 week after discharge, and, for high-risk patients, structured nurse homevisits and heart function clinic care were provided to patients, or usual care (n = 1390 patients), in which transitional care was left to the discretion of clinicians. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were hierarchically ordered as composite all-cause readmission, emergency department (ED) visit, or death at 3 months; and composite all-cause readmission or ED visit at 30 days. Secondary outcomes were B-PREPARED score for discharge preparedness (range: 0 [most prepared] to 22 [least prepared]); the 3-Item Care Transitions Measure (CTM-3) for quality of transition (range: 0 [worst transition] to 100 [best transition]); the 5-level EQ-5D version (EQ-5D-5L) for quality of life (range: 0 [dead] to 1 [full health]); and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY; range: 0 [dead] to 0.5 [full health at 6 months]). Results: Among eligible patients, all 2494 (mean age, 77.7 years; 1258 [50.4%] women) completed the trial. There was no significant difference between the intervention and usual care groups in the first primary composite outcome (545 [49.4%] vs 698 [50.2%] events, respectively; hazard ratio [HR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.83-1.19]) or in the second primary composite outcome (304 [27.5%] vs 408 [29.3%] events, respectively; HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.73-1.18]). There were significant differences between the intervention and usual care groups in the secondary outcomes of mean B-PREPARED score at 6 weeks (16.6 vs 13.9; difference, 2.65 [95% CI, 1.37-3.92]; P < .001); mean CTM-3 score at 6 weeks (76.5 vs 70.3; difference, 6.16 [95% CI, 0.90-11.43]; P = .02); and mean EQ-5D-5L score at 6 weeks (0.7 vs 0.7; difference, 0.06 [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.11]; P = .02) and 6 months (0.7 vs 0.6; difference, 0.06 [95% CI, 0.01-0.12]; P = .02). There was no significant difference in mean QALY between groups at 6 months (0.3 vs 0.3; difference, 0.00 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02]; P = .98). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with HF in Ontario, Canada, implementation of a patient-centered transitional care model compared with usual care did not improve a composite of clinical outcomes. Whether this type of intervention could be effective in other health care systems or locations would require further research. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02112227.

Knowledge to action: Rationale and design of the Patient-Centered Care Transitions in Heart Failure (PACT-HF) stepped wedge cluster randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: Heart Failure (HF) is a common cause of hospitalization in older adults. The transition from hospital to home is high-risk, and gaps in transitional care can increase the risk of re-hospitalization and death. Combining health care services supported by meta-analyses, we designed the PACT-HF transitional care model. METHODS: Adopting an integrated Knowledge Translation (iKT) approach in which decision-makers and clinicians are partners in research, we implement and test the effectiveness of PACT-HF among patients hospitalized for HF. We use a pragmatic stepped wedge cluster randomized trial design to introduce the complex health service intervention to 10 large hospitals in a randomized sequence until all hospitals initiate the intervention. The goal is for all patients hospitalized with HF to receive self-care education, multidisciplinary care, and early follow-up with their health care providers; and in addition, for high-risk patients to receive post-discharge nurse-led home visits and outpatient care in Heart Function clinics. This requires integration of care across hospitals, home care agencies, and outpatient clinics in our publicly funded health care system. While hospitals are the unit of recruitment and analysis, patients (estimated sample size of 3200) are the unit of analysis. Primary outcomes are hierarchically ordered as time to composite all-cause readmissions / emergency department (ED) visits / death at 3 months and time to composite all-cause readmissions / ED visits at 30 days. In a nested study of 8 hospitals, we measure the patient-centered outcomes of Discharge Preparedness, Care Transitions Quality, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY); and the 6-month health care resource use and costs. We obtain all clinical and cost outcomes via linkages to provincial administrative databases. CONCLUSIONS: This protocol describes the implementation and testing of a transitional care model comprising health care services informed by high-level evidence. The study adopts an iKT and pragmatic approach, uses a robust study design, links clinical trial data with outcomes held in administrative databases, and includes patient-reported outcomes. Findings will have implications on clinical practice, health care policy, and Knowledge Translation (KT) research methodology.

Outcomes of Heart Transplant After Left Ventricular Assist Device Specific and Related Infection.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular assist device (LVAD) infections including drivelines, pump pockets, and bacteremia are difficult to manage and conservative treatments may not be effective as the infected foreign material remains. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of all 170 HeartMate II (Thoratec, Pleasanton, CA) implantations as bridge to transplant (BTT) between 2004 and 2012 at our institution. Sixty-one patients (36%) developed a culture positive driveline infection, pump pocket infection, bacteremia, or a combination of these. Twenty-six out of 61 patients with an infection and 49 out of 109 patients without an infection went on to receive a heart transplant. RESULTS: The 1- and 3-year freedom from LVAD infection was 60% and 32%, respectively. While early infection tends to first present as driveline infections, late infections tend to present initially as bacteremia. The 1-year likelihood of receiving a transplant in the patients with an LVAD infection group was 37%, compared with 43% in patients without an infection (p = 0.36). One-year survival to transplantation was 76% in patients with LVAD infection compared with 81% without (p = 0.33). The 1- and 3-year posttransplant survival in patients with a LVAD infection was 96% and 91%, respectively, compared with 92% and 88% in patients without an infection (p = 0.48) . CONCLUSIONS: In this nonmatched cohort of LVAD patients with and without infection, selected patients with controlled LVAD infection have an equal chance of getting transplanted with excellent early and late post-transplant survival.

Destination therapy with left ventricular assist devices: for whom and when?

Historically, cardiac transplantation is the only definitive therapy for mortality reduction, symptom reduction, and improved quality of life in advanced heart failure. Because of improvement in cardiovascular care there is now a growing number of patients such as the elderly and those with abundant comorbidity who are not eligible for cardiac transplant. Durable mechanical circulatory support is the new reality in the treatment of advanced heart failure in this population subset. The left ventricular assist device (LVAD) has evolved from humble origins as a short-term extracorporeal and pulsatile device into a durable intracorporeal continuous flow device capable of providing permanent support in the form of destination therapy (DT) LVAD. Data gathered from original landmark clinical trials including Randomized Evaluation of Mechanical Assistance for the Treatment of Congestive Heart Failure (REMATCH), and the Heart Mate II Trial, and the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) provide insight into the type of patient and the timing in which to consider DT LVAD therapy. There are a number individual patient warning signs and symptoms that predate clinical decline; thus, identifying individuals who might benefit from a DT LVAD strategy. The adverse event burden that accompanies DT LVAD therapy cannot be ignored when considering LVAD as an adjunct to ongoing medical therapy. Trends in patient selection regarding mechanical circulatory support continue to evolve along with the technology. As more clinical outcome data are gathered we will continue to refine our patient selection criteria and timing of implant.

Exercise testing in asymptomatic gene carriers exposes a latent electrical substrate of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine if exercise testing could expose a latent electrical substrate of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) in asymptomatic gene carriers. BACKGROUND: Management of asymptomatic ARVC gene carriers is challenging because of variable penetrance of disease and the recognition that sudden cardiac death may be the first clinical manifestation. METHODS: Exercise-induced abnormalities during exercise treadmill testing (ETT) were initially compared in 60 subjects: 30 asymptomatic ARVC gene carriers and 30 healthy controls. In phase 2 of the study, ETT results of 25 patients with ARVC with histories of sustained ventricular arrhythmia or cardiac arrest were evaluated to determine if ETT abnormalities in asymptomatic gene carriers were common to patients with a malignant electrical form of the disease. RESULTS: Depolarization abnormalities during ETT were found to develop more frequently in asymptomatic gene carriers compared with healthy controls: epsilon waves appeared in 4 of 28 (14%) compared with 0 of 30 (0%) (p = 0.048), premature ventricular contractions in 17 of 30 (57%) compared with 3 of 30 (10%) (p = 0.0003), and new QRS terminal activation duration ≥ 55 ms in 7 of 22 (32%) compared with 2 of 29 (7%) (p = 0.03). Superior axis premature ventricular contractions occurred only in gene carriers. In the second phase of the study, the frequency of these abnormalities was found to be high in patients with symptomatic ARVC: new epsilon waves appeared in 3 of 18 (17%), superior axis premature ventricular contractions in 21 of 25 (84%), and new terminal activation duration ≥ 55 ms in 8 of 12 (67%). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise testing exposes a latent electrical substrate in asymptomatic ARVC gene carriers that is shared by patients with ARVC with histories of ventricular arrhythmia. ETT may be useful in guiding treatment decisions, exercise prescription, and prioritizing medical surveillance in asymptomatic ARVC gene carriers.

Newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for serious liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The negative impact of diabetes mellitus is well recognized, yet little is known about the effect of this disease on the liver, an organ susceptible to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease related to insulin resistance. We evaluated whether adults with newly diagnosed diabetes were at increased risk of serious liver disease. METHODS: We used administrative health databases for the province of Ontario (1994-2006) to perform a population-based matched retrospective cohort study. The exposed group comprised 438 069 adults with newly diagnosed diabetes. The unexposed comparison group--those without known diabetes--consisted of 2 059 708 individuals, matched 5:1 to exposed persons, by birth year, sex and local health region. We excluded individuals with pre-existing liver or alcohol-related disease. The primary study outcome was the subsequent development of serious liver disease, namely, liver cirrhosis, liver failure and its sequelae, or receipt of a liver transplant. RESULTS: The incidence rate of serious liver disease was 8.19 per 10 000 person-years among those with newly diagnosed diabetes and 4.17 per 10 000 person-years among those without diabetes. The unadjusted hazard ratio was 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.83-2.01). After adjustment for age, income, urban residence, health care utilization and pre-existing hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity and cardiovascular disease, the hazard ratio was 1.77 (95% CI 1.68-1.86). INTERPRETATION: Adults with newly diagnosed diabetes appeared to be at higher risk of advanced liver disease, also known as diabetic hepatopathy. Whether this reflects nonalcoholic fatty liver disease or direct glycemic injury of the liver remains to be determined.