A computational account of the development and evolution of psychotic symptoms.

The mechanisms of psychotic symptoms like hallucinations and delusions are often investigated in fully-formed illness, well after symptoms emerge. These investigations have yielded key insights, but are not well-positioned to reveal the dynamic forces underlying symptom formation itself. Understanding symptom development over time would allow us to identify steps in the pathophysiological process leading to psychosis, shifting the focus of psychiatric intervention from symptom alleviation to prevention. We propose a model for understanding the emergence of psychotic symptoms within the context of an adaptive, developing neural system. We will make the case for a pathophysiological process that begins with cortical hyperexcitability and bottom-up noise transmission, which engenders inappropriate belief formation via aberrant prediction error signaling. We will argue that this bottom-up noise drives learning about the (im)precision of new incoming sensory information because of diminished signal-to-noise ratio, causing an adaptive relative over-reliance on prior beliefs. This over-reliance on priors predisposes to hallucinations and covaries with hallucination severity. An over-reliance on priors may also lead to increased conviction in the beliefs generated by bottom-up noise and drive movement toward conversion to psychosis. We will identify predictions of our model at each stage, examine evidence to support or refute those predictions, and propose experiments that could falsify or help select between alternative elements of the overall model. Nesting computational abnormalities within longitudinal development allows us to account for hidden dynamics among the mechanisms driving symptom formation and to view established symptomatology as a point of equilibrium among competing biological forces.

Recent social stress and severity of auditory hallucinations.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Hearing voices is a common and often distressing experience for people with psychosis, and many individuals experience medication-resistant auditory verbal hallucinations (AVH). Psychosocial interventions are often employed to address distress over hearing voices. However, although links have been made between adverse social experiences and psychosis broadly, no work has yet delineated the relationship between day-to-day social stress and hallucination severity. We aimed to define that relationship in both clinical and non-clinical voice-hearers. STUDY DESIGN: A sample of 278 participants with a history of hearing voices was selected from the Yale Control Over Perceptual Experiences (COPE) Project. They were administered self-report measures of recent stress and recent auditory experiences within a cross-sectional design. Regression models were used to evaluate whether self-reported aspects of recent stress-and social stress in particular-were related to recent frequency of and distress over hearing voices. Related demographics and clinical characteristics were included as covariates. STUDY RESULTS: A significant relationship was observed between recent social stress and both recent frequency of and distress over hearing voices. While other aspects of recent stress were also related to recent distress over voices, social stressors uniquely predicted distress over voice-hearing, beyond the influence of other stressors. Depressive symptom severity was also related to distress over voices. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that daily social stress may be an important consideration and a potential treatment target for individuals experiencing clinical distress over auditory hallucinations.

Different learning aberrations relate to delusion-like beliefs with different contents.

The prediction error account of delusions has had success. However, its explanation of delusions with different contents has been lacking. Persecutory delusions and paranoia are the common unfounded beliefs that others have harmful intentions towards us. Other delusions include believing that one's thoughts or actions are under external control, or that events in the world have specific personal meaning. We compare learning on two different cognitive tasks, probabilistic reversal learning (PRL) and Kamin blocking, that have relationships to paranoid and non-paranoid delusion-like beliefs, respectively. We find that Clinical High-Risk status alone does not result in different behavioral results on the PRL task but that an individual's level of paranoia is associated with excessive switching behavior. During the Kamin blocking task, paranoid individuals learned inappropriately about the blocked cue. However, they also had decreased learning about the control cue, suggesting more general learning impairments. Non-paranoid delusion-like belief conviction (but not paranoia) was associated with aberrant learning about the blocked cue but intact learning about the control cue, suggesting specific impairments in learning related to cue combination. We fit task-specific computational models separately to behavioral data to explore how latent parameters vary within individuals between tasks, and how they can explain symptom-specific effects. We find that paranoia is associated with low learning rates on the PRL task as well as the blocking task. Non-paranoid delusion-like belief conviction was instead related to parameters controlling the degree and direction of similarity between cue updating during simultaneous cue presentation. These results suggest that paranoia and other delusion-like beliefs involve dissociable deficits in learning and belief updating, which - given the transdiagnostic status of paranoia - may have differential utility in predicting psychosis.

The mechanisms underlying conditioning of phantom percepts differ between those with hallucinations and synesthesia.

There are many different kinds of 'phantom' percepts but it is unknown whether they are united by common mechanisms. For example, synaesthesia (e.g., numbers evoking colour) and hallucinations appear conceptually and phenomenologically similar: both result in a percept that does not have an environmental correlate. Here, people with synaesthesia (n = 66) performed a conditioned hallucinations paradigm known to be sensitive to hallucination susceptibility, and we asked whether synaesthetes would show the same behavioural profile as hallucinators in this task. Repeated pairing of checkerboards with tones, and gratings with colours encourages the participant to draw on prior knowledge when asked to report on the presence of the difficult-to-detect target stimulus. Synaesthetes show increased modelled expectancies for the stimulus association across the board, resulting in a higher number of detections at all stimulus intensities. This is in contrast to the pattern observed in hallucinators, who weigh their prior beliefs more strongly than controls, giving rise to more conditioned hallucinations. Results indicate that fundamentally different perceptual processes may be at the core of these seemingly similar experiences.

On the proportion of patients who experience a prodrome prior to psychosis onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preventing or delaying the onset of psychosis requires identification of those at risk for developing psychosis. For predictive purposes, the prodrome - a constellation of symptoms which may occur before the onset of psychosis - has been increasingly recognized as having utility. However, it is unclear what proportion of patients experience a prodrome or how this varies based on the multiple definitions used. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of patients with psychosis with the objective of determining the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. Inclusion criteria included a consistent prodrome definition and reporting the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome. We excluded studies of only patients with a prodrome or solely substance-induced psychosis, qualitative studies without prevalence data, conference abstracts, and case reports/case series. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), APA PsycInfo (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection (Clarivate), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, APA PsycBooks (Ovid), ProQuest Dissertation & Thesis, on March 3, 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Narrative synthesis and proportion meta-analysis were used to estimate prodrome prevalence. I2 and predictive interval were used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to probe sources of heterogeneity. (PROSPERO ID: CRD42021239797). RESULTS: Seventy-one articles were included, representing 13,774 patients. Studies varied significantly in terms of methodology and prodrome definition used. The random effects proportion meta-analysis estimate for prodrome prevalence was 78.3% (95% CI = 72.8-83.2); heterogeneity was high (I2 97.98% [95% CI = 97.71-98.22]); and the prediction interval was wide (95% PI = 0.411-0.936). There were no meaningful differences in prevalence between grouped prodrome definitions, and subgroup analyses failed to reveal a consistent source of heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first meta-analysis on the prevalence of a prodrome prior to the onset of first episode psychosis. The majority of patients (78.3%) were found to have experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. However, findings are highly heterogenous across study and no definitive source of heterogeneity was found despite extensive subgroup analyses. As most studies were retrospective in nature, recall bias likely affects these results. While the large majority of patients with psychosis experience a prodrome in some form, it is unclear if the remainder of patients experience no prodrome, or if ascertainment methods employed in the studies were not sensitive to their experiences. Given widespread investment in indicated prevention of psychosis through prospective identification and intervention during the prodrome, a resolution of this question as well as a consensus definition of the prodrome is much needed in order to effectively direct and organize services, and may be accomplished through novel, densely sampled and phenotyped prospective cohort studies that aim for representative sampling across multiple settings.

Evidence for Reduced Sensory Precision and Increased Reliance on Priors in Hallucination-Prone Individuals in a General Population Sample.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that people with hallucinations overweight perceptual beliefs relative to incoming sensory evidence. Past work demonstrating prior overweighting has used simple, nonlinguistic stimuli. However, auditory hallucinations in psychosis are often complex and linguistic. There may be an interaction between the type of auditory information being processed and its perceived quality in engendering hallucinations. STUDY DESIGN: We administered a linguistic version of the conditioned hallucinations (CH) task to an online sample of 88 general population participants. Metrics related to hallucination-proneness, hallucination severity, stimulus thresholds, and stimulus detection rates were collected. Data were used to fit parameters of a Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) model of perceptual inference to determine how latent perceptual states influenced task behavior. STUDY RESULTS: Replicating past results, higher CH rates were observed both in those with recent hallucinatory experiences as well as participants with high hallucination-proneness; CH rates were positively correlated with increased prior weighting; and increased prior weighting was related to hallucination severity. Unlike past results, participants with recent hallucinatory experiences as well as those with higher hallucination-proneness had higher stimulus thresholds, lower sensitivity to stimuli presented at the highest threshold, and had lower response confidence, consistent with lower precision of sensory evidence. CONCLUSIONS: We replicate the finding that increased CH rates and recent hallucinations correlate with increased prior weighting using a linguistic version of the CH task. Results support a role for reduced sensory precision in the interplay between prior weighting and hallucination-proneness.

Comparing a Computerized Digit Symbol Test to a Pen-and-Paper Classic.

Background and Hypothesis: Processing speed dysfunction is a core feature of psychosis and predictive of conversion in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Although traditionally measured with pen-and-paper tasks, computerized digit symbol tasks are needed to meet the increasing demand for remote assessments. Therefore we: (1) assessed the relationship between traditional and computerized processing speed measurements; (2) compared effect sizes of impairment for progressive and persistent subgroups of CHR individuals on these tasks; and (3) explored causes contributing to task performance differences. Study Design: Participants included 92 CHR individuals and 60 healthy controls who completed clinical interviews, the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia Symbol Coding test, the computerized TestMyBrain Digit Symbol Matching Test, a finger-tapping task, and a self-reported motor abilities measure. Correlations, Hedges' g, and linear models were utilized, respectively, to achieve the above aims. Study Results: Task performance was strongly correlated (r = 0.505). A similar degree of impairment was seen between progressive (g = -0.541) and persistent (g = -0.417) groups on the paper version. The computerized task uniquely identified impairment for progressive individuals (g = -477), as the persistent group performed similarly to controls (g = -0.184). Motor abilities were related to the computerized version, but the paper version was more related to symptoms and psychosis risk level. Conclusions: The paper symbol coding task measures impairment throughout the CHR state, while the computerized version only identifies impairment in those with worsening symptomatology. These results may be reflective of sensitivity differences, an artifact of existing subgroups, or evidence of mechanistic differences.

Barriers and solutions to the adoption of translational tools for computational psychiatry.

Computational psychiatry is a field aimed at developing formal models of information processing in the human brain, and how alterations in this processing can lead to clinical phenomena. There has been significant progress in the development of tasks and how to model them, presenting an opportunity to incorporate computational psychiatry methodologies into large- scale research projects or into clinical practice. In this viewpoint, we explore some of the barriers to incorporation of computational psychiatry tasks and models into wider mainstream research directions. These barriers include the time required for participants to complete tasks, test-retest reliability, limited ecological validity, as well as practical concerns, such as lack of computational expertise and the expense and large sample sizes traditionally required to validate tasks and models. We then discuss solutions, such as the redesigning of tasks with a view toward feasibility, and the integration of tasks into more ecologically valid and standardized game platforms that can be more easily disseminated. Finally, we provide an example of how one task, the conditioned hallucinations task, might be translated into such a game. It is our hope that interest in the creation of more accessible and feasible computational tasks will help computational methods make more positive impacts on research as well as, eventually, clinical practice.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS.

Aim: To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). Methods: The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences. Results: Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and partial harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named P ositive SY mptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the C AARMS H armonized with the S IPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS. Conclusion: Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Sampling from different populations: Sociodemographic, clinical, and functional differences between samples of first episode psychosis individuals and clinical high-risk individuals who progressed to psychosis.

Over the past two decades, research and clinical resources on clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis have both expanded, with goals to better understanding risk and protective factors on the course of illness and inform early intervention efforts. However, some studies have highlighted potential sampling bias among CHR research studies, raising questions about generalizability of findings and inequitable access to early detection and intervention. The current study sought to explore these questions by comparing 94 participants in a CHR longitudinal monitoring study across North America (NAPLS-2) who converted to syndromal psychosis over the course of the study (CHR-CV) to 171 participants who presented for treatment at a localized first-episode psychosis service (FES) after converting. CHR-CV participants were significantly more likely to be White and have a college-educated parent, while FES participants were more likely to be Black and first- or second-generation immigrants. On average, CHR-CV participants were younger at onset of attenuated positive symptoms, had a longer period of attenuated symptoms prior to conversion, and were more likely to be treated with antipsychotics prior to conversion compared to those in FES programs. After controlling for time since conversion, CHR-CV participants had higher global functioning and were less likely to have experienced recent psychiatric hospitalization. Findings suggest that CHR research and FES clinics may be sampling from different populations, although conclusions are limited by inconsistent sampling frames and methods. Integrated early detection that targets defined geographic catchments may deliver more epidemiologically representative samples to both CHR research and FES.

Effects of exercise intervention on psychotic symptoms: A meta-analysis and hypothetical model of neurobiological mechanisms.

There is conflicting evidence on the efficacy of exercise as intervention for psychosis. This article aims to analyze the effect of exercise on psychotic symptoms. A database search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, EBSCO and Cochrane CENTRAL, based on a protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42022326944). Papers available by March 2023 assessing exercise interventions in psychotic patients were included. A significant improvement was found in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) positive symptoms (MD = -0.75 [-1.35, -0.15], p = 0.01), with large effect sizes for PANSS-negative and general symptoms (-2.14 [-3.36, -0.92]) and (-2.53 [-3.15, -1.91]), respectively. Heterogeneity was high among studies, 49 and 73% for PANSS-positive and negative symptoms, and low, 0%, for general symptoms. It was hypothesized that functioning of specific brain areas, such as the temporal lobe and hippocampus, may underlie the improvement seen with exercise. Based on neuroimaging/neurophysiology studies, we propose a neurobiological model accounting for the association between exercise and psychotic symptom improvement.

Self-reported Gesture Interpretation and Performance Deficits in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Deficits in performing and interpreting communicative nonverbal behaviors, such as gesture, have been linked to varied psychopathology and dysfunction. Some evidence suggests that individuals at risk for psychosis have deficits in gesture interpretation and performance; however, individuals with internalizing disorders (eg, depression) may have similar deficits. No previous studies have examined whether gesture deficits in performance and interpretation are specific to those at risk for psychosis. Additionally, the underlying mechanisms (eg, cognition) and consequences (eg, functioning) of these deficits are poorly understood. STUDY DESIGN: This study examined self-reported gesture interpretation (SRGI) and performance (SRGP) in those at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR; N = 88), those with internalizing disorders (INT; N = 51), and healthy controls (HC; N = 53). Participants completed questionnaires, clinical interviews, and neurocognitive tasks. STUDY RESULTS: Results indicated that the CHR group was characterized by significantly lower SRGI scores than the HC or INT groups (d = 0.41); there were no differences among groups in SRGP. Within CHR participants, greater deficits in SRGP were associated with lower verbal learning and memory (r = -.33), but not general intelligence or processing speed. Furthermore, gesture deficits were associated with higher cross-sectional risk for conversion to a full psychotic disorder in the CHR group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings suggest that specific subdomains of gesture may reflect unique vulnerability for psychosis, self-report may be a viable assessment tool in understanding these phenomena, and gesture dysfunction may signal risk for transition to psychosis.

The reliability and validity of the revised Green et al. paranoid thoughts scale in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

INTRODUCTION: Paranoia is a common and impairing psychosis symptom, which exists along a severity continuum that extends into the general population. Individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) frequently experience paranoia and this may elevate their risk for developing full psychosis. Nonetheless, limited work has examined the efficient measurement of paranoia in CHR individuals. The present study aimed to validate an often-used self-report measure, the revised green paranoid thoughts scale (RGPTS), in this critical population. METHOD: Participants were CHR individuals (n = 103), mixed clinical controls (n = 80), and healthy controls (n = 71) who completed self-report and interview measures. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), psychometric indices, group differences, and relations to external measures were used to evaluate the reliability and validity of the RGPTS. RESULTS: CFA replicated a two-factor structure for the RGPTS and the associated reference and persecution scales were reliable. CHR individuals scored significantly higher on both reference and persecution, relative to both healthy (ds = 1.03, 0.86) and clinical controls (ds = 0.64, 0.73). In CHR participants, correlations between reference and persecution and external measures were smaller than expected, though showed evidence of discriminant validity (e.g., interviewer-rated paranoia, r = 0.24). When examined in the full sample, correlation magnitude was larger and follow-up analyses indicated that reference related most specifically to paranoia (ß = 0.32), whereas persecution uniquely related to poor social functioning (ß = -0.29). CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate the reliability and validity of the RGPTS, though its scales related more weakly to severity in CHR individuals. The RGPTS may be useful in future work aiming to develop symptom-specific models of emerging paranoia in CHR individuals.

Learning to Discern the Voices of Gods, Spirits, Tulpas, and the Dead.

There are communities in which hearing voices frequently is common and expected, and in which participants are not expected to have a need for care. This paper compares the ideas and practices of these communities. We observe that these communities utilize cultural models to identify and to explain voice-like events-and that there are some common features to these models across communities. All communities teach participants to "discern," or identify accurately, the legitimate voice of the spirit or being who speaks. We also observe that there are roughly two methods taught to participants to enable them to experience spirits (or other invisible beings): trained attention to inner experience, and repeated speech to the invisible other. We also observe that all of these communities model a learning process in which the ability to hear spirit (or invisible others) becomes more skilled with practice, and in which what they hear becomes clearer over time. Practice-including the practice of discernment-is presumed to change experience. We also note that despite these shared cultural ideas and practices, there is considerable individual variation in experience-some of which may reflect psychotic process, and some perhaps not. We suggest that voice-like events in this context may be shaped by cognitive expectation and trained practice as well as an experiential pathway. We also suggest that researchers could explore these common features both as a way to help those struggling with psychosis, and to consider the possibility that expectations and practice may affect the voice-hearing experience.

A novel computational approach to pain perception modelling within a Bayesian framework using quantitative sensory testing.

Pain perception can be studied as an inferential process in which prior information influences the perception of nociceptive input. To date, there are no suitable psychophysical paradigms to measure this at an individual level. We developed a quantitative sensory testing paradigm allowing for quantification of the influence of prior expectations versus current nociceptive input during perception. Using a Pavlovian-learning task, we investigated the influence of prior expectations on the belief about the varying strength of association between a painful electrical cutaneous stimulus and a visual cue in healthy subjects (N = 70). The belief in cue-pain associations was examined with computational modelling using a Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF). Prior weighting estimates in the HGF model were compared with the established measures of conditioned pain modulation (CPM) and temporal summation of pain (TSP) assessed by cuff algometry. Subsequent HGF-modelling and estimation of the influence of prior beliefs on perception showed that 70% of subjects had a higher reliance on nociceptive input during perception of acute pain stimuli, whereas 30% showed a stronger weighting of prior expectations over sensory evidence. There was no association between prior weighting estimates and CPM or TSP. The data demonstrates relevant individual differences in prior weighting and suggests an importance of top-down cognitive processes on pain perception. Our new psychophysical testing paradigm provides a method to identify individuals with traits suggesting greater reliance on prior expectations in pain perception, which may be a risk factor for developing chronic pain and may be differentially responsive to learning-based interventions.

Accelerated cortical thinning precedes and predicts conversion to psychosis: The NAPLS3 longitudinal study of youth at clinical high-risk.

Progressive grey matter loss has been demonstrated among clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals who convert to psychosis, but it is unknown whether these changes occur prior to psychosis onset. Identifying illness-related neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to conversion is essential for targeted early intervention. Among participants in the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3), this report investigated if steeper cortical thinning was observable prior to psychosis onset among CHR individuals who ultimately converted (CHR-C) and assessed the shortest possible time interval in which rates of cortical thinning differ between CHR-C, CHR non-converters (CHR-NC), and health controls (HC). 338 CHR-NC, 42 CHR-C, and 62 HC participants (age 19.3±4.2, 44.8% female, 52.5% racial/ethnic minority) completed up to 5 MRI scans across 8 months. Accelerated thinning among CHR-C compared to CHR-NC and HC was observed in multiple prefrontal, temporal, and parietal cortical regions. CHR-NC also exhibited accelerated cortical thinning compared to HC in several of these areas. Greater percent decrease in cortical thickness was observed among CHR-C compared to other groups across 2.9±1.8 months, on average, in several cortical areas. ROC analyses discriminating CHR-C from CHR-NC by percent thickness change in a left hemisphere region of interest, scanner, age, age2, and sex had an AUC of 0.74, with model predictive power driven primarily by percent thickness change. Findings indicate that accelerated cortical thinning precedes psychosis onset and differentiates CHR-C from CHR-NC and HC across short time intervals. Mechanisms underlying cortical thinning may provide novel treatment targets prior to psychosis onset.

A computational lens on menopause-associated psychosis.

Psychotic episodes are debilitating disease states that can cause extreme distress and impair functioning. There are sex differences that drive the onset of these episodes. One difference is that, in addition to a risk period in adolescence and early adulthood, women approaching the menopause transition experience a second period of risk for new-onset psychosis. One leading hypothesis explaining this menopause-associated psychosis (MAP) is that estrogen decline in menopause removes a protective factor against processes that contribute to psychotic symptoms. However, the neural mechanisms connecting estrogen decline to these symptoms are still not well understood. Using the tools of computational psychiatry, links have been proposed between symptom presentation and potential algorithmic and biological correlates. These models connect changes in signaling with symptom formation by evaluating changes in information processing that are not easily observable (latent states). In this manuscript, we contextualize the observed effects of estrogen (decline) on neural pathways implicated in psychosis. We then propose how estrogen could drive changes in latent states giving rise to cognitive and psychotic symptoms associated with psychosis. Using computational frameworks to inform research in MAP may provide a systematic method for identifying patient-specific pathways driving symptoms and simultaneously refine models describing the pathogenesis of psychosis across all age groups.

Conditioned Hallucinations and Prior Overweighting Are State-Sensitive Markers of Hallucination Susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in computational psychiatry have identified latent cognitive and perceptual states that predispose to psychotic symptoms. Behavioral data fit to Bayesian models have demonstrated an overreliance on priors (i.e., prior overweighting) during perception in select samples of individuals with hallucinations, corresponding to increased precision of prior expectations over incoming sensory evidence. However, the clinical utility of this observation depends on the extent to which it reflects static symptom risk or current symptom state. METHODS: To determine whether task performance and estimated prior weighting relate to specific elements of symptom expression, a large, heterogeneous, and deeply phenotyped sample of hallucinators (n = 249) and nonhallucinators (n = 209) performed the conditioned hallucination (CH) task. RESULTS: We found that CH rates predicted stable measures of hallucination status (i.e., peak frequency). However, CH rates were more sensitive to hallucination state (i.e., recent frequency), significantly correlating with recent hallucination severity and driven by heightened reliance on past experiences (priors). To further test the sensitivity of CH rate and prior weighting to symptom severity, a subset of participants with hallucinations (n = 40) performed a repeated-measures version of the CH task. Changes in both CH frequency and prior weighting varied with changes in auditory hallucination frequency on follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that CH rate and prior overweighting are state markers of hallucination status, potentially useful in tracking disease development and treatment response.