Maintaining musculoskeletal health using a behavioural therapy approach: a population-based randomised controlled trial (the MAmMOTH Study).

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) has been shown to be effective in the management of chronic widespread pain (CWP); we now test whether it can prevent onset among adults at high risk. METHODS: A population-based randomised controlled prevention trial, with recruitment through UK general practices. A mailed screening questionnaire identified adults at high risk of CWP. Participants received either usual care (UC) or a short course of telephone CBT (tCBT). The primary outcome was CWP onset at 12 months assessed by mailed questionnaire. There were seven secondary outcomes including quality of life (EuroQol Questionnaire-five dimensions-five levels/EQ-5D-5L) used as part of a health economic assessment. RESULTS: 996 participants were randomised and included in the intention-to-treat analysis of which 825 provided primary outcome data. The median age of participants was 59 years; 59% were women. At 12 months there was no difference in the onset of CWP (tCBT: 18.0% vs UC: 17.5%; OR 1.05; 95% CI 0.75 to 1.48). Participants who received tCBT were more likely to report better quality of life (EQ-5D-5L utility score mean difference 0.024 (95% CI 0.009 to 0.040)); and had 0.023 (95% CI 0.007 to 0.039) more quality-adjusted life-years at an additional cost of £42.30 (95% CI -£451.19 to £597.90), yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £1828. Most secondary outcomes showed significant benefit for the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: A short course of tCBT did not prevent onset of CWP in adults at high risk, but improved quality of life and was cost-effective. A low-cost, short-duration intervention benefits persons at risk of CWP. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT02668003).

Prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality in a large longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity is the coexistence of two or more health conditions in an individual. Multimorbidity in younger adults is increasingly recognised as an important challenge. We assessed the prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality over 15 years of follow-up, in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) cohort. METHOD: A prospective cohort study using linked electronic health and mortality records. Scottish ACONF participants were linked to their Scottish Morbidity Record hospital episode data and mortality records. Multimorbidity was defined as two or more conditions and was assessed using healthcare records in 2001 when the participants were aged between 45 and 51 years. The association between multimorbidity and mortality over 15 years of follow-up (to ages 60-66 years) was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was also adjustment for key covariates: age, gender, social class at birth, intelligence at age 7, secondary school type, educational attainment, alcohol, smoking, body mass index and adult social class. RESULTS: Of 9625 participants (51% males), 3% had multimorbidity. The death rate per 1000 person-years was 28.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 34.8) in those with multimorbidity and 5.7 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.1) in those without. In relation to the reference group of those with no multimorbidity, those with multimorbidity had a mortality HR of 4.5 (95% CI 3.4 to 6.0) over 15 years and this association remained when fully adjusted for the covariates (HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.0)). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity prevalence was 3% in mid-life when measured using secondary care administrative data. Multimorbidity in mid-life was associated with premature mortality.

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease.

Importance: Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions. Objective: To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5 222 711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n = 2 253 540). Exposures: Demographic and clinical factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Results: Among 4 441 084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660 856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781 627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313 646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Conclusions and Relevance: Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.

Impact of educational attainment on the association between social class at birth and multimorbidity in middle age in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity (the coexistence of two or more health conditions) is increasingly prevalent. No long-term cohort study has examined the impact of contemporaneously measured birth social class along with educational attainment on adult self-reported multimorbidity. We investigated the impact of educational attainment on the relationship between social class at birth and adult self-reported multimorbidity in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) cohort. METHODS: A prospective cohort study using the ACONF cohort. ACONF included 12 150 individuals born in Aberdeen, Scotland 1950-1956. In 2001, 7184 (64%) responded to a questionnaire providing information including self-reported morbidity and educational attainment. The exposure was father's social class at birth from birth records and the outcome was self-reported multimorbidity.Logistic regression assessed the association between social class and multimorbidity with adjustment for gender, then by educational attainment and finally by childhood cognition and secondary school type. ORs and 95% CIs were presented. RESULTS: Of 7184 individuals (mean age 48, 52% female), 5.4% reported multimorbidity. Birth social class was associated with adult multimorbidity. For example, the OR of multimorbidity adjusted by gender was 0.62 (95% CI 0.39 to 1.00) in the highest social class group (I/II) in relation to the reference group (III (manual)) and was 1.85 (95% CI 1.19 to 2.88) in the lowest social class group. This was partially attenuated in all social class categories by educational attainment, for example, the OR was 0.74 (95% CI 0.45 to 1.21) in group I/II following adjustment. CONCLUSION: Lower social class at birth was associated with developing multimorbidity in middle age. This was partially mediated by educational attainment and future research should consider identifying the other explanatory variables. The results are relevant to researchers and to those aiming to reduce the impact of multimorbidity.

Defining and measuring multimorbidity: a systematic review of systematic reviews.

Background: Multimorbidity, the coexistence of multiple health conditions, is a growing public health challenge. Research and intervention development are hampered by the lack of consensus regarding defining and measuring multimorbidity. The aim of this systematic review was to pool the findings of systematic reviews examining definitions and measures of multimorbidity. Methods: Medline, Embase, PubMed and Cochrane were searched from database inception to February 2017. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts and extracted data from the included papers. Disagreements were resolved with a third author. Reviews were quality assessed. Results: Of six reviews, two focussed on definitions and four on measures. Multimorbidity was commonly defined as the presence of multiple diseases or conditions, often with a cut-off of two or more. One review developed a holistic definition including biopsychosocial and somatic factors as well as disease. Reviews recommended using measures validated for the outcome of interest. Disease counts are an alternative if no validated measure exists. Conclusions: To enable comparison between studies and settings, researchers and practitioners should be explicit about their choice of definition and measure. Using a cut-off of two or more conditions as part of the definition is widely adopted. Measure selection should be based on tools validated for the outcome being considered. Where there is no validated measure, or where multiple outcomes or populations are being considered, disease counts are appropriate.

Geographical mobility of UK trainee doctors, from family home to first job: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The UK faces geographical variation in the recruitment of doctors. Understanding where medical graduates choose to go for training is important because doctors are more likely to consider practicing in areas where they completed postgraduate training. The wider literature also suggests that there is a relationship between origin and background, and where doctors wish to train/work. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the geographical mobility of UK medical graduates from different socio-economic groups in terms of where they wish to spend their first years of postgraduate training. METHODS: This was an observational study of Foundation Programme (FP) doctors who graduated from 33 UK medical schools between 2012 and 2014. Data was accessed via the UK medical education database (UKMED: https://www.ukmed.ac.uk/ ). Chi-square tests were used to examine the relationships between doctor's sociodemographic characteristics and the dependent variable, average driving time from parental home to foundation school/region. Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to estimate the effects of those factors in combination against the outcome measure. RESULTS: The majority of doctors prefer to train at foundation schools that are reasonably close to the family home. Those who attended state-funded schools, from non-white ethnic groups and/or from lower socio-economic groups were significantly more likely to choose foundation schools nearer their parental home. Doctors from disadvantaged backgrounds (as determined by entitlement to free school meals, OR = 1.29, p = 0.003 and no parental degree, OR = 1.34, p < 0.001) were associated with higher odds of selecting a foundation schools that were closer to parental home. CONCLUSION: The data suggests that recruiting medical students from lower socioeconomic groups and those who originate from under-recruiting areas may be at least part of the solution to filling training posts in these areas. This has obvious implications for the widening access agenda, and equitable distribution of health services.

Evaluating service development in critical care: The impact of establishing a medical high dependency unit on intensive care unit workload, case mix, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Critical care services underpin the delivery of many types of secondary care, and there is increasing focus on how to best deliver such services. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of establishing a medical high dependency unit, in a tertiary referral center, on the workload, case mix, and mortality of the intensive care unit. METHODS: Single-center, 11-year retrospective study of patients admitted to the general intensive care unit, before and after the opening of the medical high dependency unit, using interrupted time series methodology. RESULTS: Over the duration of the study period, 3209 medical patients were admitted to the intensive care unit. There was a constant rate of medical admissions to the intensive care unit until the opening of the medical high dependency unit, followed by a statistically significant decline thereafter. There was a statistically significant decrease in the average severity of illness of medical patients prior to the opening of the medical high dependency unit, but there was no evidence of a change following the opening of the unit. There was no evidence of a statistically significant change in the estimated mean standardized mortality ratio for either medical or surgical admissions after the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The opening of a medical high dependency unit had a minimal impact on the intensive care unit. There was, in all likelihood, an unmet need-of less seriously ill patients, who were previously looked after on a normal ward, but did not require intensive care unit admission-who are now cared for in the new medical high dependency unit. Interrupted time series analysis, although not without limitations, is a useful mean of evaluating changes in service delivery.

Relationship between sociodemographic factors and selection into UK postgraduate medical training programmes: a national cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Knowledge about allocation of doctors into postgraduate training programmes is essential in terms of workforce planning, transparency and equity issues. However, this is a rarely examined topic. To address this gap in the literature, the current study examines the relationships between applicants' sociodemographic characteristics and outcomes on the UK Foundation Training selection process. METHODS: A longitudinal, cohort study of trainees who applied for the first stage of UK postgraduate medical training in 2013-2014. We used UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) to access linked data from different sources, including medical school admissions, assessments and postgraduate training. Multivariable ordinal regression analyses were used to predict the odds of applicants being allocated to their preferred foundation schools. RESULTS: Applicants allocated to their first-choice foundation school scored on average a quarter of an SD above the average of all applicants in the sample. After adjusting for Foundation Training application score, no statistically significant effects were observed for gender, socioeconomic status (as determined by income support) or whether applicants entered medical school as graduates or not. Ethnicity and place of medical qualification were strong predictors of allocation to preferred foundation school. Applicants who graduated from medical schools in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were 1.17 times, 3.33 times and 12.64 times (respectively), the odds of applicants who graduated from a medical school in England to be allocated to a foundation school of their choice. CONCLUSIONS: The data provide supportive evidence for the fairness of the allocation process but highlight some interesting findings relating to 'push-pull' factors in medical careers decision-making. These findings should be considered when designing postgraduate training policy.

Three year evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF in a low prevalence tuberculosis setting: A Scottish perspective.

OBJECTIVES: Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid) is a rapid molecular assay shown to be sensitive and specific for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in highly endemic countries. We evaluated its diagnostic performance in a low TB prevalence setting, examined rifampicin resistance detection and quantitative capabilities predicting graded auramine microscopy and time to positivity (TTP) of culture. METHODS: Xpert MTB/RIF was used to test respiratory samples over a 3 year period. Samples underwent graded auramine microscopy, solid/liquid culture, in-house IS6110 real-time PCR, and GenoType MTBDRplus (HAIN Lifescience) to determine rifampicin and/or isoniazid resistance. RESULTS: A total of 2103 Xpert MTB/RIF tests were performed. Compared to culture sensitivity was 95.8%, specificity 99.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) 82.1%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 99.9%. A positive correlation was found between auramine microscopy grade and Xpert MTB/RIF assay load. We found a clear reduction in the median TTP as Xpert MTB/RIF assay load increased. Rifampicin resistance was detected. CONCLUSIONS: Xpert MTB/RIF was rapid and accurate in diagnosing pulmonary TB in a low prevalence area. Rapid results will influence infection prevention and control and treatment measures. The excellent NPV obtained suggests further work should be carried out to assess its role in replacing microscopy.

Acute kidney injury as an independent risk factor for unplanned 90-day hospital readmissions.

BACKGROUND: Reducing readmissions is an international priority in healthcare. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common, serious and also a global concern. This analysis evaluates AKI as a candidate risk factor for unplanned readmissions and determines the reasons for readmissions. METHODS: GLOMMS-II is a large population cohort from one health authority in Scotland, combining hospital episode data and complete serial biochemistry results through data-linkage. 16453 people (2623 with AKI and 13830 without AKI) from GLOMMS-II who survived an index hospital admission in 2003 were used to identify the causes of and predict readmissions. The main outcome was "unplanned readmission or death" within 90 days of discharge. In a secondary analysis, the outcome was limited to readmissions with acute pulmonary oedema. 26 candidate predictors during the index admission included AKI (defined and staged 1-3 using an automated e-alert algorithm), prior AKI episodes, baseline kidney function, index admission circumstances and comorbidities. Prediction models were developed and assessed using multivariable logistic regression (stepwise variable selection), C statistics, bootstrap validation and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Three thousand sixty-five (18.6%) patients had the main outcome (2702 readmitted, 363 died without readmission). The outcome was strongly predicted by AKI. Multivariable odds ratios for AKI stage 3; 2 and 1 (vs no AKI) were 2.80 (2.22-3.53); 2.23 (1.85-2.68) and 1.50 (1.33-1.70). Acute pulmonary oedema was the reason for readmission in 26.6% with AKI and eGFR < 60; and 4.0% with no AKI and eGFR ≥ 60. The best stepwise model from all candidate predictors had a C statistic of 0.698 for the main outcome. In a secondary analysis, a model for readmission with acute pulmonary oedema had a C statistic of 0.853. In decision curve analysis, AKI improved clinical utility when added to any model, although the incremental benefit was small when predicting the main outcome. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is a strong, consistent and independent risk factor for unplanned readmissions - particularly readmissions with acute pulmonary oedema. Pre-emptive planning at discharge should be considered to minimise avoidable readmissions in this high risk group.

KDIGO-based acute kidney injury criteria operate differently in hospitals and the community-findings from a large population cohort.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important. It frequently develops first in the community. KDIGO-based AKI e-alert criteria may help clinicians recognize AKI in hospitals, but their suitability for application in the community is unknown. METHODS: In a large renal cohort (n = 50 835) in one UK health authority, we applied the NHS England AKI 'e-alert' criteria to identify and follow three AKI groups: hospital-acquired AKI (HA-AKI), community-acquired AKI admitted to hospital within 7 days (CAA-AKI) and community-acquired AKI not admitted within 7 days (CANA-AKI). We assessed how AKI criteria operated in each group, based on prior blood tests (number and time lag). We compared 30-day, 1- and 5-year mortality, 90-day renal recovery and chronic renal replacement therapy (RRT). RESULTS: In total, 4550 patients met AKI e-alert criteria, 61.1% (2779/4550) with HA-AKI, 22.9% (1042/4550) with CAA-AKI and 16.0% (729/4550) with CANA-AKI. The median number of days since last blood test differed between groups (1, 52 and 69 days, respectively). Thirty-day mortality was similar for HA-AKI and CAA-AKI, but significantly lower for CANA-AKI (24.2, 20.2 and 2.6%, respectively). Five-year mortality was high in all groups, but followed a similar pattern (67.1, 64.7 and 46.2%). Differences in 5-year mortality among those not admitted could be explained by adjusting for comorbidities and restricting to 30-day survivors (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.80-1.04, versus hospital AKI). Those with CANA-AKI (versus CAA-AKI) had greater non-recovery at 90 days (11.8 versus 3.5%, P < 0.001) and chronic RRT at 5 years (3.7 versus 1.2%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: KDIGO-based AKI criteria operate differently in hospitals and in the community. Some patients may not require immediate admission but are at substantial risk of a poor long-term outcome.

Patient-reported improvements in health are maintained 2†years after completing a short course of cognitive behaviour therapy, exercise or both treatments for chronic widespread pain: long-term results from the MUSICIAN randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The MUSICIAN study has previously shown short-term benefit but only marginal cost-effectiveness for two non-pharmacological interventions for chronic widespread pain (CWP). We wished to determine their long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A 2×2 factorial randomised controlled trial based in primary care in the UK. People were eligible if they were aged ≥25 years with CWP for which they had consulted their general practitioner. The interventions were a 6-month telephone cognitive behaviour therapy (tCBT) and/or a tailored exercise programme, in comparison to usual care. The primary outcome was patient-reported change in health. RESULTS: 884 persons were eligible, 442 were randomised and 81.7% were followed up 24 months post-treatment. In comparison to usual care (positive outcome 12.8%), tCBT (35.4%; OR 3.7 95% CI (1.8 to 8.0)), exercise (29.3%; OR 2.8 95% CI (1.3 to 6.0)) and both interventions (31.2%; OR 3.1 95% CI (1.3 to 6.0)) were significantly more effective. There was only a small decrease in effectiveness over time for individual and combined treatments. Those with more intense/disabling pain, higher distress and those who exhibited passive coping at baseline were more likely to have a positive outcome with tCBT than persons without these characteristics. tCBT was associated with the greatest increase in quality of life and lowest costs. Cost per quality adjusted life year was £3957-£5917 depending on method of analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A short course of tCBT for people with CWP was effective long-term and was highly cost-effective. Exercise was also effective but delivered positive outcome for fewer patients at greater cost, and there was no advantage for patients receiving both interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN67013851.

Maximising Acute Kidney Injury Alerts--A Cross-Sectional Comparison with the Clinical Diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is serious and widespread across healthcare (1 in 7 hospital admissions) but recognition is often delayed causing avoidable harm. Nationwide automated biochemistry alerts for AKI stages 1-3 have been introduced in England to improve recognition. We explored how these alerts compared with clinical diagnosis in different hospital settings. METHODS: We used a large population cohort of 4464 patients with renal impairment. Each patient had case-note review by a nephrologist, using RIFLE criteria to diagnose AKI and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We identified and staged AKI alerts using the new national NHS England AKI algorithm and compared this with nephrologist diagnosis across hospital settings. RESULTS: Of 4464 patients, 525 had RIFLE AKI, 449 had mild AKI, 2185 had CKD (without AKI) and 1305 were of uncertain chronicity. NHS AKI algorithm criteria alerted for 90.5% of RIFLE AKI, 72.4% of mild AKI, 34.1% of uncertain cases and 14.0% of patients who actually had CKD.The algorithm identified AKI particularly well in intensive care (95.5%) and nephrology (94.6%), but less well on surgical wards (86.4%). Restricting the algorithm to stage 2 and 3 alerts reduced the over-diagnosis of AKI in CKD patients from 14.0% to 2.1%, but missed or delayed alerts in two-thirds of RIFLE AKI patients. CONCLUSION: Automated AKI detection performed well across hospital settings, but was less sensitive on surgical wards. Clinicians should be mindful that restricting alerts to stages 2-3 may identify fewer CKD patients, but including stage 1 provides more sensitive and timely alerting.

Looking to the future: predicting renal replacement outcomes in a large community cohort with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common and important due to poor outcomes. An ability to stratify CKD care based on outcome risk should improve care for all. Our objective was to develop and validate 5-year outcome prediction tools in a large population-based CKD cohort. Model performance was compared with the recently reported 'kidney failure risk equation' (KFRE) models. METHODS: Those with CKD in the Grampian Laboratory Outcomes Mortality and Morbidity Study-I (3396) and -II (18 687) cohorts were used to develop and validate a renal replacement therapy (RRT) prediction tool. The discrimination, calibration and overall performance were assessed. The net reclassification index compared performance of the developed model and the 3- and 4-variable KFRE model to predict RRT in the validation cohort. RESULTS: The developed model (with measures of age, sex, excretory renal function and proteinuria) performed well with a C-statistic of 0.938 (0.918-0.957) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) χ(2) statistic 4.6. In the validation cohort (18 687), the developed model falsely identified fewer as high risk (414 versus 3278 individuals) compared with the KFRE 3-variable model (measures of age, sex and excretory renal function), but had more false negatives (58 versus 21 individuals). The KFRE 4-variable model could only be applied to 2274 individuals because of a lack of baseline urinary albumin creatinine ratio data, thus limiting its use in routine clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: CKD outcome prediction tools have been developed by ourselves and others. These tools could be used to stratify care, but identify both false positives and -negatives. Further refinement should optimize the balance between identifying those at increased risk with clinical utility for stratifying care.

Charlson index scores from administrative data and case-note review compared favourably in a renal disease cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Charlson index is a widely used measure of comorbidity. The objective was to compare Charlson index scores calculated using administrative data to those calculated using case-note review (CNR) in relation to all-cause mortality and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in the Grampian Laboratory Outcomes Mortality and Morbidity Study (GLOMMS-1) chronic kidney disease cohort. METHODS: Modified Charlson index scores were calculated using both data sources in the GLOMMS-1 cohort. Agreement between scores was assessed using the weighted Kappa. The association with outcomes was assessed using Poisson regression, and the performance of each was compared using net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Of 3382 individuals, median age 78.5 years, 56% female, there was moderate agreement between scores derived from the two data sources (weighted kappa 0.41). Both scores were associated with mortality independent of a number of confounding factors. Administrative data Charlson scores were more strongly associated with death than CNR scores using net reclassification improvement. Neither score was associated with commencing RRT. CONCLUSION: Despite only moderate agreement, modified Charlson index scores from both data sources were associated with mortality. Neither was associated with commencing RRT. Administrative data compared favourably and may be superior to CNR when used in the Charlson index to predict mortality.

Approaches to ascertaining comorbidity information: validation of routine hospital episode data with clinician-based case note review.

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, research, and increasingly health surveillance, planning and costing, there is a need for high quality information to determine comorbidity information about patients. Electronic, routinely collected healthcare data is capturing increasing amounts of clinical information as part of routine care. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of routine hospital administrative data to determine comorbidity, as compared with clinician-based case note review, in a large cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS: A validation study using record linkage. Routine hospital administrative data were compared with clinician-based case note review comorbidity data in a cohort of 3219 patients with chronic kidney disease. To assess agreement, we calculated prevalence, kappa statistic, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Subgroup analyses were also performed. RESULTS: Median age at index date was 76.3 years, 44% were male, 67% had stage 3 chronic kidney disease and 31% had at least three comorbidities. For most comorbidities, we found a higher prevalence recorded from case notes compared with administrative data. The best agreement was found for cerebrovascular disease (κ = 0.80) ischaemic heart disease (κ = 0.63) and diabetes (κ = 0.65). Hypertension, peripheral vascular disease and dementia showed only fair agreement (κ = 0.28, 0.39, 0.38 respectively) and smoking status was found to be poorly recorded in administrative data. The patterns of prevalence across subgroups were as expected and for most comorbidities, agreement between case note and administrative data was similar. Agreement was less, however, in older ages and for those with three or more comorbidities for some conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that hospital administrative comorbidity data compared moderately well with case note review data for cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease and diabetes, however there was significant under-recording of some other comorbid conditions, and particularly common risk factors.

Definitions of progression in chronic kidney disease--predictors and relationship to renal replacement therapy in a population cohort with a 6 year follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common, important and associated with increased healthcare needs due to CKD progression. Definitions of renal disease progression are multiple, and not always comparable. A measure of 'progression' directly comparable with renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation would identify 'progressors' in research and for healthcare planning. METHODS: The Grampian Laboratory Outcomes Morbidity and Mortality Study (GLOMMS-I) is a community cohort with CKD from 2003, followed up to June 2009 for (i) RRT initiation and (ii) 'progression': sustained reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 (equivalent to CKD stage change), or to <10 mL/min/1.73 m2, whichever occurs first. Predictors were baseline demographics and comorbidity. The use of the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes-2012 progression definition was also explored. RESULTS: Two thousand two hundred and eighty-nine and 1044 had Stage 3 and 4 CKD, 44% were males. Overall, RRT initiation and progression rates were 0.97 and 3.50 per 100 patient-years (py). Females had significantly lower progression and RRT initiation rates. The progression rate was not dependent on CKD stage [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for Stage 4 (versus Stage 3) 0.9 (95% CI 0.8-1.2)], whereas the RRT initiation rate was [IRR 5.6 (95% CI 3.8-8.2)]. Increased proteinuria was associated with both greater RRT initiation and progression rates. CONCLUSIONS: Progression and RRT initiation rate ratios allow comparison of predictors of these outcomes. Higher rates of both in males suggest that greater RRT initiation rate is biological rather than due to preferential treatment. Similar progression but very different RRT initiation rates in Stage 3 and 4 CKD suggests that CKD stage effect on RRT initiation is a function of endpoint proximity rather than faster renal function deterioration.

Chronic kidney disease, a useful trigger for proactive primary care? Mortality results from a large U.K. cohort.

BACKGROUND: Much of the emphasis for primary care management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has focused on cardiovascular risk; however, many patients die of other causes. Aim. In order to guide future primary care management of CKD, we report the causes of death from a large U.K. CKD cohort linked to health care administrative data. DESIGN, SETTING AND METHODS: The Grampian Laboratory Outcomes Mortality and Morbidity Study (GLOMMS-1) is a community cohort of people with established CKD, identified in 2003 and followed up for 6 years. Causes of death were available from death certificates. The relative likelihood of different causes of death was compared to the general population. RESULTS: When standardized for age and sex, mortality was 4.7 (95% confidence interval 4.5-4.9) times higher in GLOMMS-1 than the general population. Non-cardiovascular diseases accounted for 1076 (50.9%) of deaths, 3.7 times more common than in the age- and sex-matched general population. For those with stages 3 and 4 CKD, without cardiovascular disease at baseline, a non-cardiovascular cause accounted for almost two-thirds of deaths. In those 75 years and older, dementia and falls were among the main non-cardiovascular causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in those with CKD is high, with non-cardiovascular diseases accounting for more than half of all deaths. While there is evidence that intervention may benefit those at risk of cardiovascular death, most of the non-cardiovascular causes of death identified were not readily amenable to prevention. A mechanism to identify which patients may benefit from intervention to prevent cardiovascular disease or renal disease progression is needed.

Translating chronic kidney disease epidemiology into patient care--the individual/public health risk paradox.

BACKGROUND: Applying the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative definitions of chronic kidney disease (CKD), it appears that CKD is common. The increased recognition of CKD has brought with it the clinical challenge of translating into practice the implications for the patient and for service planning. To understand the clinical relevance and translate that into information to support individual patient care and service planning, we explored clinical outcomes in a large British CKD cohort, identified through routine opportunistic testing, with a 6-year follow-up (≈ 13,000 patient-years). METHODS: A cohort had previously been identified with CKD-sustained reduced eGFR over at least 3 months and case note review. Six-year (13,339 patient-years) follow-up for renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation and death was achieved through data linkage. Age- and sex-specific mortality rates were compared to the general population. RESULTS: Of 3414 individuals (most Stage 3b-5), median age 78.6 years, followed for 13 339 patient-years, 170 (5%) initiated RRT and 2024 (59%) died without initiating RRT. RRT initiation rates decreased with age from 14.33 to 0.65 per 100 patient-years among those aged 15-25 and 75-85 years at baseline but the actual numbers initiating RRT increased from 6 to 34, respectively. RRT initiation rates were lower for female sex, absence of macroalbuminuria and less advanced CKD stage. Mortality rates increased with age from 2 to 34 per 100 patient-years for those aged 15-45 and > 85 years at baseline, an excess of 2 and 17 per 100 patient-years over that of the general population, respectively. However, the increase in relative risk was 19-fold for those aged 15-45 years and just 2-fold in those > 85 years. These data have been converted into simple tools for considering individual patients' risk and informing service planning. CONCLUSIONS: The contrast between relative and absolute risk for both RRT initiation and mortality by age group illustrates the difficulties for planning services. The challenge that now faces clinicians is how to appropriately identify which elderly patients with CKD are at high risk of poor outcome.

The prevalence and management of low back pain across adulthood: results from a population-based cross-sectional study (the MUSICIAN study).

The aim of the current study was to determine: the prevalence of low back pain (LBP) and associated disability; the frequency of consultation to general practice; whether there were differences in management by age. We conducted a cross-sectional population study in Aberdeen city and Cheshire County, UK. Participants were 15,272 persons aged 25 years and older. The 1-month period prevalence of LBP was 28.5%. It peaked at age 41-50 years, but at ages over 80 years was reported by 1 in 4 persons. Older persons were more likely to consult, and the prevalence of severe LBP continued to increase with age. Management by general practitioners differed by age of the patient. Older persons (> 70 vs ≤ 40 years) were more likely to only have been prescribed painkillers (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-2.35) or only pain killers with other medications (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.98). They were less likely to be prescribed physiotherapy or exercise (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.46-0.85) or to be referred to a specialist (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57-1.04). Older persons were more likely to have previously received exercise therapy for pain, were less likely to be enthusiastic about receiving it now (P<0.0001), and were less likely to think it would result in improved symptoms (P<0.0001). It is important that older persons, who have the highest prevalence of LBP with disability and are most likely to consult, are receiving optimal pharmacological and nonpharmacological management.