Outlier-Robust Surrogate Modeling of Ion-Solid Interaction Simulations.

Data for complex plasma-wall interactions require long-running and expensive computer simulations. Furthermore, the number of input parameters is large, which results in low coverage of the (physical) parameter space. Unpredictable occasions of outliers create a need to conduct the exploration of this multi-dimensional space using robust analysis tools. We restate the Gaussian process (GP) method as a Bayesian adaptive exploration method for establishing surrogate surfaces in the variables of interest. On this basis, we expand the analysis by the Student-t process (TP) method in order to improve the robustness of the result with respect to outliers. The most obvious difference between both methods shows up in the marginal likelihood for the hyperparameters of the covariance function, where the TP method features a broader marginal probability distribution in the presence of outliers. Eventually, we provide first investigations, with a mixture likelihood of two Gaussians within a Gaussian process ansatz for describing either outlier or non-outlier behavior. The parameters of the two Gaussians are set such that the mixture likelihood resembles the shape of a Student-t likelihood.

Global Optimization Employing Gaussian Process-Based Bayesian Surrogates.

The simulation of complex physics models may lead to enormous computer running times. Since the simulations are expensive it is necessary to exploit the computational budget in the best possible manner. If for a few input parameter settings an output data set has been acquired, one could be interested in taking these data as a basis for finding an extremum and possibly an input parameter set for further computer simulations to determine it-a task which belongs to the realm of global optimization. Within the Bayesian framework we utilize Gaussian processes for the creation of a surrogate model function adjusted self-consistently via hyperparameters to represent the data. Although the probability distribution of the hyperparameters may be widely spread over phase space, we make the assumption that only the use of their expectation values is sufficient. While this shortcut facilitates a quickly accessible surrogate, it is somewhat justified by the fact that we are not interested in a full representation of the model by the surrogate but to reveal its maximum. To accomplish this the surrogate is fed to a utility function whose extremum determines the new parameter set for the next data point to obtain. Moreover, we propose to alternate between two utility functions-expected improvement and maximum variance-in order to avoid the drawbacks of each. Subsequent data points are drawn from the model function until the procedure either remains in the points found or the surrogate model does not change with the iteration. The procedure is applied to mock data in one and two dimensions in order to demonstrate proof of principle of the proposed approach.

Anomalous dynamics of cell migration.

Cell movement--for example, during embryogenesis or tumor metastasis--is a complex dynamical process resulting from an intricate interplay of multiple components of the cellular migration machinery. At first sight, the paths of migrating cells resemble those of thermally driven Brownian particles. However, cell migration is an active biological process putting a characterization in terms of normal Brownian motion into question. By analyzing the trajectories of wild-type and mutated epithelial (transformed Madin-Darby canine kidney) cells, we show experimentally that anomalous dynamics characterizes cell migration. A superdiffusive increase of the mean squared displacement, non-Gaussian spatial probability distributions, and power-law decays of the velocity autocorrelations is the basis for this interpretation. Almost all results can be explained with a fractional Klein-Kramers equation allowing the quantitative classification of cell migration by a few parameters. Thereby, it discloses the influence and relative importance of individual components of the cellular migration apparatus to the behavior of the cell as a whole.

Maximum entropy and Bayesian data analysis: Entropic prior distributions.

The problem of assigning probability distributions which reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of maximum (relative) entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is inspired and guided by intuition gained from the successful use of ME methods in statistical mechanics. For experiments that cannot be repeated the resulting "entropic prior" is formally identical with the Einstein fluctuation formula. For repeatable experiments, however, the expected value of the entropy of the likelihood turns out to be relevant information that must be included in the analysis. The important case of a Gaussian likelihood is treated in detail.