Dynamics of technology emergence in innovation networks.

To create the next innovative product, participants in science need to understand which existing technologies can be combined, what new science must be discovered, and what new technologies must be invented. Knowledge of these often arrives by means of expert consensus or popularity metrics, masking key information on how intellectual efforts accumulate into technological progress. To address this shortcoming, we first present a method to establish a mathematical link between technological evolution and complex networks: a path of events that narrates innovation bottlenecks. Next, we quantify the position and proximity of documents to these innovation paths. The result is an innovation network that more exhaustively captures deterministic knowledge flows with respect to a marketed innovative product. Our dataset, containing over three million biomedical citations, demonstrates the possibility of quantifying the accumulation, speed, and division of labour in innovation over a sixty-year time horizon. The significance of this study includes the (i) use of a purpose-generated dataset showing causal paths from research to development to product; (ii) analysis of the innovation process as a directed acyclic graph; (iii) comparison between calendar time and network time; (iv) ordering of science funders along technology lifecycles; (v) quantification of innovative activities' importance to an innovative outcome; and (vi) integration of publication, patent, clinical trial, regulatory data to study innovation holistically.

A Quantum Double-or-Nothing Game: An Application of the Kelly Criterion to Spins.

A quantum game is constructed from a sequence of independent and identically polarised spin-1/2 particles. Information about their possible polarisation is provided to a bettor, who can wager in successive double-or-nothing games on measurement outcomes. The choice at each stage is how much to bet and in which direction to measure the individual particles. The portfolio's growth rate rises as the measurements are progressively adjusted in response to the accumulated information. Wealth is amassed through astute betting. The optimal classical strategy is called the Kelly criterion and plays a fundamental role in portfolio theory and consequently quantitative finance. The optimal quantum strategy is determined numerically and shown to differ from the classical strategy. This paper contributes to the development of quantum finance, as aspects of portfolio optimisation are extended to the quantum realm. Intriguing trade-offs between information gain and portfolio growth are described.

An invisible threat? Aspergillus positive cultures and co-infecting bacteria in airway samples.

BACKGROUND: Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) infection is associated with poor lung health in chronic suppurative lung diseases but often goes undetected. We hypothesised that inhibition of Af growth by Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) increases the frequency of false-negative Af culture in co-infected people. Using a substantial group of cystic fibrosis (CF) airway samples, we assessed the relationship between Af and bacterial pathogens, additionally comparing fungal culture with next-generation sequencing. METHODS: Frequency of co-culture was assessed for 44,554 sputum/BAL cultures, from 1,367 CF patients between the years 2010-2020. In a subgroup, Internal Transcribed Spacer-2 (ITS2) fungal sequencing was used to determine sequencing-positive, culture-negative (S+/C-) rates. RESULTS: Pa+ samples were nearly 40% less likely (P<0.0001) than Pa- samples to culture Af, an effect that was also seen with some other Gram-negative isolates. This impact varied with Pa density and appeared to be moderated by Staphylococcus aureus co-infection. Sequencing identified Af-S+/C- for 40.1% of tested sputa. Samples with Pa had higher rates of Af-S+/C- (49.3%) than those without (35.7%; RR 1.38 [1.02-1.93], P<0.05). Af-S+/C- rate was not changed by other common bacterial infections. Pa did not affect the S+/C- rates of Candida, Exophiala or Scedosporium. CONCLUSIONS: Pa/ Af co-positive cultures are less common than expected in CF. Our findings suggest an Af-positive culture is less likely in the presence of Pa. Interpretation of negative cultures should be cautious, particularly in Pa-positive samples, and a companion molecular diagnostic could be useful. Further work investigating mechanisms, alternative detection techniques and other chronic suppurative lung diseases is needed.

Playing With Fear: A Field Study in Recreational Horror.

Haunted attractions are illustrative examples of recreational fear in which people voluntarily seek out frightening experiences in pursuit of enjoyment. We present findings from a field study at a haunted-house attraction where visitors between the ages of 12 and 57 years (N = 110) were equipped with heart rate monitors, video-recorded at peak scare points during the attraction, and asked to report on their experience. Our results show that enjoyment has an inverted-U-shaped relationship with fear across repeated self-reported measures. Moreover, results from physiological data demonstrate that the experience of being frightened is a linear function of large-scale heart rate fluctuations, whereas there is an inverted-U-shaped relationship between participant enjoyment and small-scale heart rate fluctuations. These results suggest that enjoyment is related to forms of arousal dynamics that are "just right." These findings shed light on how fear and enjoyment can coexist in recreational horror.