TREatment of ATopic eczema (TREAT) Registry Taskforce: protocol for a European safety study of dupilumab and other systemic therapies in patients with atopic eczema.

BACKGROUND: A long-term prospective observational safety study is essential to characterize fully the safety profile of systemic immunomodulating therapies for patients with atopic eczema. The TREatment of ATopic eczema (TREAT) Registry Taskforce offers a large platform to conduct such research using national registries that collect the same data using a predefined core dataset. OBJECTIVES: To present a protocol for a safety study comparing dupilumab with other systemic immunomodulating therapies in children and adults with moderate-to-severe atopic eczema, to assess the long-term safety risk of these therapies in a routine clinical care setting. METHODS: We describe a registry-embedded international observational prospective cohort study. Adult and paediatric patients who start treatment with dupilumab or another systemic immunomodulating agent for their atopic eczema will be included. The primary end point is the incidence of malignancies (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) compared between the treatment groups. Secondary end points include other serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest, such as eye disorders and eosinophilia. CONCLUSIONS: This protocol delineates a safety study for dupilumab in adult and paediatric patients with atopic eczema, using a standardized methodological approach across several national registries. The protocol could also be used for other novel systemic immunomodulating therapies, and could provide licensing and reimbursement authorities, pharmaceutical companies and clinicians with safety evidence from a routine clinical care setting. What's already known about this topic? There is a need for long-term data on the safety of systemic immunomodulating therapies in patients with atopic eczema. Regulatory bodies, such as the European Medicines Agency, increasingly stipulate the collection of such data as part of the licensing agreement for new treatments, to assess the new agent's long-term safety profile against established therapies. Large numbers of patients with a long duration of follow-up are necessary in order to detect rare events like malignancies. What does this study add? The TREAT Registry Taskforce offers a platform to conduct such research with a network of multiple national atopic eczema research registries. We present a protocol for an investigator-initiated multicentre safety study comparing dupilumab with other systemic immunomodulating therapies in adults and subsequently adolescents and children with moderate-to-severe atopic eczema. This protocol can be used as a framework for similar studies for other novel systemic immunomodulating therapies across both adult and paediatric populations.

Systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of the effect of tranexamic acid on surgical blood loss.

BACKGROUND: Tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces blood transfusion in surgery but the extent of the reduction in blood loss and how it relates to the dose of TXA is unclear. METHODS: A systematic review of randomized trials was performed. Data were extracted on blood loss from trials comparing intravenous TXA with no TXA or placebo in surgical patients. A Bayesian linear regression was used to describe the relationship between the reduction in blood loss with TXA and the extent of bleeding as measured by the mean blood loss in the control group. A meta-analysis of the log-transformed data was conducted to quantify the effect of TXA on blood loss, stratified by type of surgery, timing of TXA administration and trial quality. Meta-regression was used to explore the effect of TXA dosage. RESULTS: Data from 104 trials were examined. Although the absolute reduction in blood loss with TXA increased as surgical bleeding increased, the percentage reduction was similar. TXA reduced blood loss by 34 per cent (pooled ratio 0·66, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·65 to 0·67; P < 0·001). The percentage reduction in blood loss with TXA differed by type of surgery, timing of TXA administration and trial quality, but the differences were small. The effect of TXA on blood loss did not vary over the range of doses assessed (5·5-300 mg/kg). CONCLUSION: TXA reduces blood loss in surgical patients by about one-third. A total dose of 1 g appears to be sufficient for most adults. There is no evidence to support the use of high doses.

Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict death in patients with traumatic bleeding, and evaluation of the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality according to baseline risk: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Severe bleeding accounts for about one-third of in-hospital trauma deaths. Patients with a high baseline risk of death have the most to gain from the use of life-saving treatments. An accurate and user-friendly prognostic model to predict mortality in bleeding trauma patients could assist doctors and paramedics in pre-hospital triage and could shorten the time to diagnostic and life-saving procedures such as surgery and tranexamic acid (TXA). OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a prognostic model for early mortality in patients with traumatic bleeding and to examine whether or not the effect of TXA on the risk of death and thrombotic events in bleeding adult trauma patients varies according to baseline risk. DESIGN: Multivariable logistic regression and risk-stratified analysis of a large international cohort of trauma patients. SETTING: Two hundred and seventy-four hospitals in 40 high-, medium- and low-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: We derived prognostic models in a large placebo-controlled trial of the effects of early administration of a short course of TXA [Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage (CRASH-2) trial]. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with, or at risk of, significant bleeding, within 8 hours of injury. We externally validated the model on 14,220 selected trauma patients from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN), which included mainly patients from the UK. We examined the effect of TXA on all-cause mortality, death due to bleeding and thrombotic events (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, deep-vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) within risk strata in the CRASH-2 trial data set and we estimated the proportion of premature deaths averted by applying the odds ratio (OR) from the CRASH-2 trial to each of the risk strata in TARN. INTERVENTIONS: For the stratified analysis according baseline risk we considered the intervention TXA (1 g over 10 minutes followed by 1 g over 8 hours) or matching placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For the prognostic models we included predictors for death in hospital within 4 weeks of injury. For the stratified analysis we reported ORs for all causes of death, death due to bleeding, and fatal and non-fatal thrombotic events associated with the use of TXA according to baseline risk. RESULTS: A total of 3076 (15%) patients died in the CRASH-2 trial and 1705 (12%) in the TARN data set. Glasgow Coma Scale score, age and systolic blood pressure were the strongest predictors of mortality. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory, with C-statistics > 0.80 in both CRASH-2 trial and TARN data sets. A simple chart was constructed to readily provide the probability of death at the point of care, while a web-based calculator is available for a more detailed risk assessment. TXA reduced all-cause mortality and death due to bleeding in each stratum of baseline risk. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the effect of TXA on all-cause mortality (p-value for interaction = 0.96) or death due to bleeding (p= 0.98). There was a significant reduction in the odds of fatal and non-fatal thrombotic events with TXA (OR = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.89; p= 0.005). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the effect of TXA on the risk of thrombotic events (p= 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic model can be used to obtain valid predictions of mortality in patients with traumatic bleeding. TXA can be administered safely to a wide spectrum of bleeding trauma patients and should not be restricted to the most severely injured. Future research should evaluate whether or not the use of this prognostic model in clinical practice has an impact on the management and outcomes of trauma patients.

The CRASH-2 trial: a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of the effects of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events and transfusion requirement in bleeding trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Among trauma patients who survive to reach hospital, exsanguination is a common cause of death. A widely practicable treatment that reduces blood loss after trauma could prevent thousands of premature deaths each year. The CRASH-2 trial aimed to determine the effect of the early administration of tranexamic acid on death and transfusion requirement in bleeding trauma patients. In addition, the effort of tranexamic acid on the risk of vascular occlusive events was assessed. OBJECTIVE: Tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces bleeding in patients undergoing elective surgery. We assessed the effects and cost-effectiveness of the early administration of a short course of TXA on death, vascular occlusive events and the receipt of blood transfusion in trauma patients. DESIGN: Randomised placebo-controlled trial and economic evaluation. Randomisation was balanced by centre, with an allocation sequence based on a block size of eight, generated with a computer random number generator. Both participants and study staff (site investigators and trial co-ordinating centre staff) were masked to treatment allocation. All analyses were by intention to treat. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness. The health outcome was the number of life-years (LYs) gained. Cost data were obtained from hospitals, the World Health Organization database and UK reference costs. Cost-effectiveness was measured in international dollars ($) per LY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results to model assumptions. SETTING: Two hundred and seventy-four hospitals in 40 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Adult trauma patients (n = 20,211) with, or at risk of, significant bleeding who were within 8 hours of injury. INTERVENTIONS: Tranexamic acid (loading dose 1 g over 10 minutes then infusion of 1 g over 8 hours) or matching placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was death in hospital within 4 weeks of injury, and was described with the following categories: bleeding, vascular occlusion (myocardial infarction, stroke and pulmonary embolism), multiorgan failure, head injury and other. RESULTS: Patients were allocated to TXA (n = 10,096) and to placebo (n = 10,115), of whom 10,060 and 10,067 patients, respectively, were analysed. All-cause mortality at 28 days was significantly reduced by TXA [1463 patients (14.5%) in the TXA group vs 1613 patients (16.0%) in the placebo group; relative risk (RR) 0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85 to 0.97; p = 0.0035]. The risk of death due to bleeding was significantly reduced [489 patients (4.9%) died in the TXA group vs 574 patients (5.7%) in the placebo group; RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.76 to 0.96; p = 0.0077]. We recorded strong evidence that the effect of TXA on death due to bleeding varied according to the time from injury to treatment (test for interaction p < 0.0001). Early treatment (≤ 1 hour from injury) significantly reduced the risk of death due to bleeding [198 out of 3747 patients (5.3%) died in the TXA group vs 286 out of 3704 patients (7.7%) in the placebo group; RR 0.68; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.82; p < 0.0001]. Treatment given between 1 and 3 hours also reduced the risk of death due to bleeding [147 out of 3037 patients (4.8%) died in the TXA group vs 184 out of 2996 patients (6.1%) in the placebo group; RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.97; p = 0.03]. Treatment given after 3 hours seemed to increase the risk of death due to bleeding [144 out of 3272 patients (4.4%) died in the TXA group vs 103 out of 3362 patients (3.1%) in the placebo group; RR 1.44; 95% CI1.12 to 1.84; p = 0.004]. We recorded no evidence that the effect of TXA on death due to bleeding varied by systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score or type of injury. Administering TXA to bleeding trauma patients within 3 hours of injury saved an estimated 755 LYs per 1000 trauma patients in the UK. The cost of giving TXA to 1000 patients was estimated at $30,830. The incremental cost of giving TXA compared with not giving TXA was $48,002. The incremental cost per LY gained of administering TXA was $64. CONCLUSIONS: Early administration of TXA safely reduced the risk of death in bleeding trauma patients and is highly cost-effective. Treatment beyond 3 hours of injury is unlikely to be effective. Future work [the Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Head injury-3 (CRASH-3) trial] will evaluate the effectiveness and safety of TXA in the treatments of isolated traumatic brain injury (http://crash3.lshtm.ac.uk/). TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86750102, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00375258 and South African Clinical Trial Register DOH-27-0607-1919. FUNDING: The project was funded by the Bupa Foundation, the J P Moulton Charitable Foundation and the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 10. See HTA programme website for further project information.

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients.

CRASH-2 (Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage) intracranial bleeding study: the effect of tranexamic acid in traumatic brain injury--a nested randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been shown to reduce blood loss in surgical patients and the risk of death in patients with traumatic bleeding, with no apparent increase in vascular occlusive events. These findings raise the possibility that it might also be effective in traumatic brain injury (TBI). OBJECTIVE: The Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage Intracranial Bleeding Study (CRASH-2 IBS) was conducted to quantify the effect of an early short course of TXA on intracranial haemorrhage and new focal cerebral ischaemic lesions in patients with TBI. DESIGN: CRASH-2 IBS was a prospective randomised controlled trial nested within the CRASH-2 trial. Randomisation was balanced by centre, with an allocation sequence based on a block size of eight. We used a local pack system that selected the lowest numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs. Apart from the pack number, the treatment packs were identical. The pack number was recorded on the entry form, which was sent to the international trial co-ordinating centre in London, UK. Once the treatment pack number was recorded, the patient was included in the trial whether or not the treatment pack was opened or the allocated treatment started. All site investigators and trial co-ordinating centre staff were masked to treatment allocation. SETTING: Ten hospitals: (India) Aditya Neuroscience Centre, Sanjivani Hospital, CARE Hospital, Christian Medical College, Medical Trust Hospital, Jeevan Jyoti Hospital and (Colombia) Hospital Universitario San Vicente de Paul, Hospital Pablo Tobón Uribe, Hospital Universitario San José de Popayán and Fundación Valle del Lili. PARTICIPANTS: The trial was conducted in a subset of 270 CRASH-2 trial participants. Patients eligible for inclusion in the CRASH-2 IBS fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the CRASH-2 trial, and also had TBI [Glasgow Coma Scale score of ≤ 14 and a brain computerised tomography (CT) scan compatible with TBI]. Pregnant women and patients for whom a second brain CT scan was not possible were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly allocated to receive either a loading dose of 1 g of TXA infused over 10 minutes followed by an intravenous infusion of 1 g over 8 hours or matching placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was the increase in size of intracranial haemorrhage growth between a CT scan at hospital admission and a second scan 24-48 hours later. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-three patients were allocated to TXA and 137 to placebo, of whom information on the primary (imaging) outcome was available for 123 (92%) and 126 (92%) respectively. The analysis suggested that TXA was likely to be associated with a reduction in haemorrhage growth [adjusted difference -3.8 ml, 95% credibility interval (CrI) -11.5 ml to 3.9 ml], fewer focal ischaemic lesions [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.54, 95% CrI 0.20 to 1.46] and fewer deaths (adjusted OR 0.49, 95% CrI 0.22 to 1.06). CONCLUSIONS: This was the first randomised controlled study to evaluate the effect of TXA in TBI patients and it found that neither moderate benefits nor moderate harmful effects can be excluded. However, although uncertainty remains, our analyses suggest that TXA administration might improve outcome in TBI patients and provide grounds for evaluating this hypothesis in future research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86750102. SOURCE OF FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 16, No. 13. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose and obesity, as predictors of incident diabetes in 14 120 hypertensive patients of ASCOT-BPLA: comparison of their relative predictability using a novel approach.

AIMS: To evaluate, in hypertensive patients, whether the metabolic syndrome is a better predictor of new-onset diabetes compared with impaired fasting glucose, obesity or its other individual components alone, or collectively. METHODS: Cox models were developed to assess the risk of new-onset diabetes associated with the metabolic syndrome after adjusting for a priori confounders (age, sex, ethnicity and concomitant use of non-cardiovascular medications), its individual components and other determinants of new-onset diabetes. Area under receiver operator curves using the metabolic syndrome or models of impaired fasting glucose were compared, and the ability of these models to correctly identify those who (after 5-years of follow-up) would or would not develop diabetes was assessed. RESULTS: The metabolic syndrome adjusted for a priori confounders and its individual components, and further adjusted for other determinants, was associated with significantly increased risk of new-onset diabetes [1.19 (1.00-1.40), P = 0.05 and 1.22 (1.03-1.44), P = 0.02, respectively]. The discriminative ability of the metabolic syndrome model [area under receiver operating curve: 0.764 (0.750-0.778)] was significantly better than the model of impaired fasting glucose [0.742 (0.727-0.757)] (P < 0.001). The metabolic syndrome correctly allocates the risk of new-onset diabetes in a significantly higher proportion of patients (62.3%) than impaired fasting glucose status (37.7%) (P < 0.001). The presence of both the metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose were associated with an approximately 9-fold (7.47-10.45) increased risk of new-onset diabetes. Among normoglycaemic patients, the metabolic syndrome was also associated with significantly increased risk of new-onset diabetes, after adjusting for BMI and a priori confounders [1.66 (1.29-2.13)]. CONCLUSIONS: Both impaired fasting glucose and the metabolic syndrome predict the risk of new-onset diabetes; however, the metabolic syndrome is a better predictor than impaired fasting glucose in assigning the risk of new-onset diabetes in hypertensive patients, and among those with normoglycaemia.

[Characteristics of neonates with and without a single umbilical artery. Analysis of two consecutive series of neonates with and without congenital defects]. / Características de los neonatos con y sin arteria umbilical única. Análisis de dos series consecutivas de recién nacidos con y sin defectos congénitos.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The implications of the presence of a single umbilical artery (SUA) are unknown. Although most articles are based on selected samples, they suggest a relationship between SUA and malformations. Consequently, prenatal detection of SUA causes concern, since there are no definitive guidelines that can be followed after identification of this abnormality. The objective of this study was to comparatively analyze SUA in two series of consecutive births, with and without congenital defects. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 19,909 cases and 19,148 controls from the Registry of the Spanish Collaborative Study on Congenital Malformations were studied. The variables analyzed were sex, birth weight, length, occipito-frontal circumference, gestational age, prematurity, delivery by caesarean section, umbilical cord length, placental weight, survival at 72 hours, primiparity, oligohydramnios, and polyhydramnios. Calculations included relative frequency, odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals, the chi-square test, Fisher's p-value, and Student's t-test. RESULTS: SUA was found in 2.29 % of cases and in 1.03 % of controls (p = 0.0000001). These figures showed secular variation due to improvements in prenatal diagnosis and interruption of some pregnancies. When cases with and without SUA were compared, those with SUA had lower values of somatometry at birth, umbilical cord length and gestational age and had a higher risk for oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios, caesarean section, and death in the first 72 hours. Among controls, the only differences were a shorter umbilical cord and a higher frequency of oligohydramnios among infants with SUA. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that certain malformations associated with SUA could cause some of the differences among cases. Shortening of the umbilical cord and oligohydramnios could be related to SUA, as these abnormalities were found in both cases and controls. Comparison of cases and controls suggests that the etiopathogenesis of SUA could differ in the two groups.