Space-time models for a panzootic in bats, with a focus on the endangered Indiana bat.

Knowledge of current trends of quickly spreading infectious wildlife diseases is vital to efficient and effective management. We developed space-time mixed-effects logistic regressions to characterize a disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS), quickly spreading among endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in eastern North America. Our goal was to calculate and map the risk probability faced by uninfected colonies of hibernating Indiana bats. Model covariates included annual distance from and direction to nearest sources of infection, geolocational information, size of the Indiana bat populations within each wintering population, and total annual size of populations known or suspected to be affected by WNS. We considered temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal formulae through the use of random effects for year, complex (a collection of interacting hibernacula), and year × complex. Since first documented in 2006, WNS has spread across much of the range of the Indiana bat. No sizeable wintering population now occurs outside of the migrational distance of an infected source. Annual rates of newly affected wintering Indiana bat populations between winter 2007 to 2008 and 2010 to 2011 were 4, 6, 8, and 12%; this rate increased each year at a rate of 3%. If this increasing rate of newly affected populations continues, all wintering populations may be affected by 2016. Our models indicated the probability of a wintering population exhibiting infection was a linear function of proximity to affected Indiana bat populations and size of the at-risk population. Geographic location was also important, suggesting broad-scale influences. For every 50-km increase in distance from a WNS-affected population, risk of disease declined by 6% (95% CI=5.2-5.7%); for every increase of 1,000 Indiana bats, there was an 8% (95% CI = 1-21%) increase in disease risk. The increasing rate of infection seems to be associated with the movement of this disease into the core of the Indiana bat range. Our spatially explicit estimates of disease risk may aid managers in prioritizing surveillance and management for wintering populations of Indiana bats and help understand the risk faced by other hibernating bat species.

Viral respiratory infections in hospitalized and community control children in Alaska.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Alaska Native children from the Yukon Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is associated with a hospitalization rate five times higher than that reported for the general US child population. The role of other viral respiratory pathogens has not been studied in this population. YK Delta children <3 years of age hospitalized with respiratory infections and same aged community control children were prospectively enrolled between October 2005 and September 2007. Polymerase chain reaction detection of viruses was performed on nasopharyngeal samples. Characteristics of hospitalized and asymptomatic control children were analyzed. From October 2005 to September 2007, 440 hospitalized and 425 control children were analyzed. Respiratory viruses were detected in 90% (395) of hospitalized children: 194 (44%) rhinovirus, 131 (30%) adenovirus, 102 (23%) RSV, 77 (18%) para influenza viruses (PIV), 66 (15%) human metapneumovirus (hMPV), 23 (5%) influenza, and 25 (6%) coronavirus. Fifty-two percent (221) of control children had a virus detected, most commonly rhinovirus (33%), and adenovirus (16%). RSV, PIV, hMPV, and influenza were significantly more common in hospitalized cases than control children, but rhinovirus, adenovirus, and coronavirus were not. RSV and hMPV were associated with higher severity of illness. In this study, RSV remains the most important virus associated with respiratory hospitalization, although hMPV and PIV were also common. RSV and hMPV were associated with more severe illness. Rhinovirus and adenovirus were detected in two-thirds of hospitalized children, but their frequent detection in control children made their role in respiratory hospitalization uncertain.