Stigma experiences, effects and coping among individuals affected by Buruli ulcer and yaws in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Stigma related to skin neglected tropical diseases like Buruli ulcer (BU) and yaws has remained underexplored and existing studies are limited to individual diseases despite the WHO call for integration in disease management. Within two districts in central Ghana, we explored stigma associated with BU and yaws to understand overlaps and disease-specific nuances to help guide integrated interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 31 current or formerly affected individuals to assess the experiences, effects and coping strategies adopted to manage disease related stigma. Data were analysed along broad themes based on the sociological construct of macro and micro interaction and Goffman's treatise on stigma. Disapproving community labels fueled by misconceptions were noted among BU participants which contributed to macro stigma experiences, including exclusion, discrimination and avoidance. In contrast, a high level of social acceptance was reported among yaws participants although some micro-level stigma (anticipated, felt and self-stigma) were noted by individuals with both diseases. While younger participants experienced name-calling and use of derogatory words to address affected body parts, older participants and caregivers discussed the pain of public staring. Stigma experiences had negative consequences on psychosocial well-being, schooling, and social relations, particularly for BU affected people. Problem-focused strategies including confrontation, selective disclosure and concealment as well as emotion-focused strategies (religious coping and self-isolation) were noted. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The types and levels of stigma varied for BU and yaws. Stigma experiences also differed for adults and children in this setting and these differences should be accounted for in integrated interventions for these skin NTDs. School health programs need to prioritize educating school teachers about skin NTDs and the negative impact of stigma on the wellbeing of children.

Exploring factors associated with Trichuris trichiura infection in school children in a high-transmission setting in Kenya.

Objectives: Kenya has implemented a national school-based deworming program, which has led to substantial decline in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), although some pockets of infections remain. To effectively design an STH control program that leads to significant reductions of Trichuris trichiura, there is a need to understand the drivers of persistent infection despite ongoing treatment programs. Methods: This study was conducted between July and September 2019 at the south coast of Kenya, using a two-stage sampling design. First, a school-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2265 randomly selected school children from selected schools in areas known to be endemic for T. trichiura. After this, we conducted a nested case-control study wherein all children positive for T. trichiura (142) were matched to 148 negative controls based on age and village. A household survey was then conducted with all household members of cases and controls. In addition, a subsample of 116 children found to be infected with T. trichiura were followed up to assess the efficacy of albendazole at day 21 post-treatment. The predictors of presence of T. trichiura were investigated through multilevel logistic regression, considering clustering of infection. Results: Overall, 34.4% of the children were infected with at least one STH species; T. trichiura was the most common (28.3%), 89.1% of those with T. trichiura had light-intensity infections. The prevalence of T. trichiura was significantly higher in male children and was positively associated with younger age and number of people infected with T. trichiura in a household. The parasitological cure rate and egg reduction rate of T. trichiura were 35% and 51%, respectively. Other STHs identified were hookworm (9.6%) and Ascaris lumbricoides (5.7%). Conclusions: T. trichiura remains a significant public health challenge in the study area with albendazole treatment efficacy against the parasite, remaining lower than the World Health Organization-recommended thresholds. Because of the observed focal transmission of T. trichiura in the current area, control efforts tailored to local conditions and targeting lower implementation units should be used to achieve optimal results on transmission.

Improved household flooring is associated with lower odds of enteric and parasitic infections in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Enteric and parasitic infections such as soil-transmitted helminths cause considerable mortality and morbidity in low- and middle-income settings. Earthen household floors are common in many of these settings and could serve as a reservoir for enteric and parasitic pathogens, which can easily be transmitted to new hosts through direct or indirect contact. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to establish whether and to what extent improved household floors decrease the odds of enteric and parasitic infections among occupants compared with occupants living in households with unimproved floors. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we comprehensively searched four electronic databases for studies in low- and middle-income settings measuring household flooring as an exposure and self-reported diarrhoea or any type of enteric or intestinal-parasitic infection as an outcome. Metadata from eligible studies were extracted and transposed on to a study database before being imported into the R software platform for analysis. Study quality was assessed using an adapted version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. In total 110 studies were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which 65 were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis after applying study quality cut-offs. Random-effects meta-analysis suggested that households with improved floors had 0.75 times (95CI: 0.67-0.83) the odds of infection with any type of enteric or parasitic infection compared with household with unimproved floors. Improved floors gave a pooled protective OR of 0.68 (95CI: 0.58-0.8) for helminthic infections and 0.82 OR (95CI: 0.75-0.9) for bacterial or protozoan infections. Overall study quality was poor and there is an urgent need for high-quality experimental studies investigating this relationship. Nevertheless, this study indicates that household flooring may meaningfully contribute towards a substantial portion of the burden of disease for enteric and parasitic infections in low- and middle-income settings.

Quantifying Population Burden and Effectiveness of Decentralized Surveillance Strategies for Skin-Presenting Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liberia.

We evaluated programmatic approaches for skin neglected tropical disease (NTD) surveillance and completed a robust estimation of the burden of skin NTDs endemic to West Africa (Buruli ulcer, leprosy, lymphatic filariasis morbidity, and yaws). In Maryland, Liberia, exhaustive case finding by community health workers of 56,285 persons across 92 clusters identified 3,241 suspected cases. A total of 236 skin NTDs (34.0 [95% CI 29.1-38.9]/10,000 persons) were confirmed by midlevel healthcare workers trained using a tailored program. Cases showed a focal and spatially heterogeneous distribution. This community health worker‒led approach showed a higher skin NTD burden than prevailing surveillance mechanisms, but also showed high (95.1%) and equitable population coverage. Specialized training and task-shifting of diagnoses to midlevel health workers led to reliable identification of skin NTDs, but reliability of individual diagnoses varied. This multifaceted evaluation of skin NTD surveillance strategies quantifies benefits and limitations of key approaches promoted by the 2030 NTD roadmap of the World Health Organization.

Ivermectin and albendazole coadministration: opportunities for strongyloidiasis control.

In 2020, WHO recognised the importance of strongyloidiasis alongside soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in their 2021-30 roadmap, which aspires to target Strongyloides stercoralis with preventive chemotherapy by use of ivermectin. Combination treatment with both albendazole, the primary drug used to treat STH, and ivermectin, would improve the efficiency of mass drug administration targeting both STH and S stercoralis. In this Personal View, we discuss the challenges and opportunities towards the development of an efficient control programme for strongyloidiasis, particularly if it is to run concurrently with STH control. We argue the need to define the prevalence threshold to implement preventive chemotherapy for S stercoralis, the target populations and optimal dosing schedules, and discuss the added benefits of a fixed-dose coformulation of ivermectin and albendazole. Implementation of an efficient control programme will require improvements to current diagnostics, and validation of new diagnostics, to target and monitor S stercoralis infections, and consideration of the challenges of multispecies diagnostics for S stercoralis and STH control. Finally, the evolution of ivermectin resistance represents a credible risk to control S stercoralis; we argue that genome-wide approaches, together with improved genome resources, are needed to characterise and prevent the emergence of resistance. Overcoming these challenges will help to reduce strongyloidiasis burden and enhance the feasibility of controlling it worldwide.

Characterising spatial patterns of neglected tropical disease transmission using integrated sero-surveillance in Northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: As prevalence decreases in pre-elimination settings, identifying the spatial distribution of remaining infections to target control measures becomes increasingly challenging. By measuring multiple antibody responses indicative of past exposure to different pathogens, integrated serological surveys enable simultaneous characterisation of residual transmission of multiple pathogens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we combine integrated serological surveys with geostatistical modelling and remote sensing-derived environmental data to estimate the spatial distribution of exposure to multiple diseases in children in Northern Ghana. The study utilised the trachoma surveillance survey platform (cross-sectional two-stage cluster-sampled surveys) to collect information on additional identified diseases at different stages of elimination with minimal additional cost. Geostatistical modelling of serological data allowed identification of areas with high probabilities of recent exposure to diseases of interest, including areas previously unknown to control programmes. We additionally demonstrate how serological surveys can be used to identify areas with exposure to multiple diseases and to prioritise areas with high uncertainty for future surveys. Modelled estimates of cluster-level prevalence were strongly correlated with more operationally feasible metrics of antibody responses. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates the potential of integrated serological surveillance to characterise spatial distributions of exposure to multiple pathogens in low transmission and elimination settings when the probability of detecting infections is low.

Methods and Approaches for Buruli Ulcer Surveillance in Africa: Lessons Learnt and Future Directions.

Over 95% of the global burden of Buruli ulcer disease (BU) caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans occurs in equatorial Africa. National and sub-national programs have implemented various approaches to improve detection and reporting of incident cases over recent decades. Regional incidence rates are currently in decline; however, surveillance targets outlined in 2012 by WHO have been missed and detection bias may contribute to these trends. In light of the new 2030 NTD roadmap and disease-specific targets, BU programs are required to strengthen case detection and begin a transition towards integration with other skin-NTDs. This transition comes with new opportunities to enhance existing BU surveillance systems and develop novel approaches for implementation and evaluation.In this review, we present a breakdown and assessment of the methods and approaches that have been the pillars of BU surveillance systems in Africa: (1) Passive case detection, (2) Data systems, (3) Clinical training, (4) Active case finding, (5) Burden estimation, and (6) Laboratory confirmation pathways. We discuss successes, challenges, and relevant case studies before highlighting opportunities for future development and evaluation including novel data collection tools, risk-based surveillance, and integrated skin-NTD surveillance. We draw on both experience and available literature to critically evaluate methods of BU surveillance in Africa and highlight new approaches to help achieve 2030 roadmap targets.

Effectiveness of community-based burden estimation to achieve elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A comparative cross-sectional investigation in Côte d'Ivoire.

For lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination, endemic countries must document the burden of LF morbidity (LFM). Community-based screening (CBS) is used to collect morbidity data, but evidence demonstrating its reliability is limited. Recent pilots of CBS for LFM alongside mass drug administration (MDA) in Côte d'Ivoire suggested low LFM prevalence (2.1-2.2 per 10,000). We estimated LFM prevalence in Bongouanou District, Côte d'Ivoire, using a comparative cross-sectional design. We compared CBS implemented independently of MDA, adapted from existing Ministry of Health protocols, to a population-based prevalence survey led by formally trained nurses. We evaluated the reliability of case identification, coverage, equity, and cost of CBS. CBS identified 87.4 cases of LFM per 10,000; the survey identified 47.5 (39.4-56.3; prevalence ratio [PR] 1.84; 95% CI 1.64-2.07). CBS identified 39.7 cases of suspect lymphoedema per 10,000; the survey confirmed 35.1 (29.2-41.5) filarial lymphoedema cases per 10,000 (PR 1.13 [0.98-1.31]). CBS identified 96.5 scrotal swellings per 10,000; the survey found 91.3 (83.2-99.8; PR 1.06 [0.93-1.21]); including 33.9 (27.7-38.8) filarial hydrocoele per 10,000 (PR of suspect to confirmed hydrocele 2.93 [2.46-3.55]). Positive predictive values for case identification through CBS were 65.0% (55.8-73.5%) for filarial lymphoedema; 93.7% (89.3-96.7%) for scrotal swellings; and 34.0% (27.3-41.2%) for filarial hydrocoele. Households of lower socioeconomic status and certain minority languages were at risk of exclusion. Direct financial costs were $0.17 per individual targeted and $69.62 per case confirmed. Our community-based approach to LFM burden estimation appears scalable and provided reliable prevalence estimates for LFM, scrotal swellings and LF-lymphoedema. The results represent a step-change improvement on CBS integrated with MDA, whilst remaining at programmatically feasible costs. Filarial hydrocoele cases were overestimated, attributable to the use of case definitions suitable for mass-screening by informal staff. Our findings are broadly applicable to countries aiming for LF elimination using CBS. The abstract is available in French in the S1 File.

Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: Monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study.

Recently, the World Health Organization established the Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests (the so-called target product profiles (TPPs)). We developed two generic frameworks: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect diseased persons) and specificity (probability to correctly detect persons free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples sizes and the decision rules based on a multi-category lot quality assurance sampling (MC-LQAS) approach that accounts for imperfect tests. We applied both frameworks for monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs. Our study indicates that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. The MC-LQAS framework highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in a smaller sample size for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance may be compensated by lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed the required minimal and ideal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for diagnostic tests applied in monitoring and evaluating of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

Sustainable Surveillance of Neglected Tropical Diseases for the Post-Elimination Era.

The World Health Organization's (WHO's) 2030 road map for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) emphasizes the importance of strengthened, institutionalized "post-elimination" surveillance. The required shift from disease-siloed, campaign-based programming to routine, integrated surveillance and response activities presents epidemiological, logistical, and financial challenges, yet practical guidance on implementation is lacking. Nationally representative survey programs, such as demographic and health surveys (DHS), may offer a platform for the integration of NTD surveillance within national health systems and health information systems. Here, we describe characteristics of DHS and other surveys conducted within the WHO Africa region in terms of frequency, target populations, and sample types and discuss applicability for post-validation and post-elimination surveillance. Maximizing utility depends not only on the availability of improved diagnostics but also on better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of transmission at low prevalence. To this end, we outline priorities for obtaining additional data to better characterize optimal post-elimination surveillance platforms.

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminths following sustained implementation of routine preventive chemotherapy: Demographics and baseline results of a cluster randomised trial in southern Malawi.

Malawi has successfully leveraged multiple delivery platforms to scale-up and sustain the implementation of preventive chemotherapy (PCT) for the control of morbidity caused by soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Sentinel monitoring demonstrates this strategy has been successful in reducing STH infection in school-age children, although our understanding of the contemporary epidemiological profile of STH across the broader community remains limited. As part of a multi-site trial evaluating the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission across three countries, this study aimed to describe the baseline demographics and the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of STH infection in Mangochi district, southern Malawi. Between October-December 2017, a community census was conducted across the catchment area of seven primary healthcare facilities, enumerating 131,074 individuals across 124 villages. A cross-sectional parasitological survey was then conducted between March-May 2018 in the censused area as a baseline for a cluster randomised trial. An age-stratified random sample of 6,102 individuals were assessed for helminthiasis by Kato-Katz and completed a detailed risk-factor questionnaire. The age-cluster weighted prevalence of any STH infection was 7.8% (95% C.I. 7.0%-8.6%) comprised predominantly of hookworm species and of entirely low-intensity infections. The presence and intensity of infection was significantly higher in men and in adults. Infection was negatively associated with risk factors that included increasing levels of relative household wealth, higher education levels of any adult household member, current school attendance, or recent deworming. In this setting of relatively high coverage of sanitation facilities, there was no association between hookworm and reported access to sanitation, handwashing facilities, or water facilities. These results describe a setting that has reduced the prevalence of STH to a very low level, and confirms many previously recognised risk-factors for infection. Expanding the delivery of anthelmintics to groups where STH infection persist could enable Malawi to move past the objective of elimination of morbidity, and towards the elimination of STH. Trial registration: NCT03014167.

Epidemiology of soil transmitted helminths and risk analysis of hookworm infections in the community: Results from the DeWorm3 Trial in southern India.

Since 2015, India has coordinated the largest school-based deworming program globally, targeting soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in ~250 million children aged 1 to 19 years twice yearly. Despite substantial progress in reduction of morbidity associated with STH, reinfection rates in endemic communities remain high. We conducted a community based parasitological survey in Tamil Nadu as part of the DeWorm3 Project-a cluster-randomised trial evaluating the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission at three geographically distinct sites in Africa and Asia-allowing the estimation of STH prevalence and analysis of associated factors. In India, following a comprehensive census, enumerating 140,932 individuals in 36,536 households along with geospatial mapping of households, an age-stratified sample of individuals was recruited into a longitudinal monitoring cohort (December 2017-February 2018) to be followed for five years. At enrolment, a total of 6089 consenting individuals across 40 study clusters provided a single adequate stool sample for analysis using the Kato-Katz method, as well as answering a questionnaire covering individual and household level factors. The unweighted STH prevalence was 17.0% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 16.0-17.9%), increasing to 21.4% when weighted by age and cluster size. Hookworm was the predominant species, with a weighted infection prevalence of 21.0%, the majority of which (92.9%) were light intensity infections. Factors associated with hookworm infection were modelled using mixed-effects multilevel logistic regression for presence of infection and mixed-effects negative binomial regression for intensity. The prevalence of both Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura infections were rare (<1%) and risk factors were therefore not assessed. Increasing age (multivariable odds ratio [mOR] 21.4, 95%CI: 12.3-37.2, p<0.001 for adult age-groups versus pre-school children) and higher vegetation were associated with an increased odds of hookworm infection, whereas recent deworming (mOR 0.3, 95%CI: 0.2-0.5, p<0.001) and belonging to households with higher socioeconomic status (mOR 0.3, 95%CI: 0.2-0.5, p<0.001) and higher education level of the household head (mOR 0.4, 95%CI: 0.3-0.6, p<0.001) were associated with lower odds of hookworm infection in the multilevel model. The same factors were associated with intensity of infection, with the use of improved sanitation facilities also correlated to lower infection intensities (multivariable infection intensity ratio [mIIR] 0.6, 95%CI: 0.4-0.9, p<0.016). Our findings suggest that a community-based approach is required to address the high hookworm burden in adults in this setting. Socioeconomic, education and sanitation improvements alongside mass drug administration would likely accelerate the drive to elimination in these communities. Trial Registration: NCT03014167.

Patterns and Drivers of Household Sanitation Access and Sustainability in Kwale County, Kenya.

Many sanitation interventions suffer from poor sustainability. Failure to maintain or replace toilet facilities risks exposing communities to environmental pathogens, yet little is known about the factors that drive sustained access beyond project life spans. Using data from a cohort of 1666 households in Kwale County, Kenya, we investigated the factors associated with changes in sanitation access between 2015 and 2017. Sanitation access is defined as access to an improved or unimproved facility within the household compound that is functional and in use. A range of contextual, psychosocial, and technological covariates were included in logistic regression models to estimate their associations with (1) the odds of sustaining sanitation access and (2) the odds of gaining sanitation access. Over two years, 28.3% households sustained sanitation access, 4.7% lost access, 17.7% gained access, and 49.2% remained without access. Factors associated with increased odds of households sustaining sanitation access included not sharing the facility and presence of a solid washable slab. Factors associated with increased odds of households gaining sanitation access included a head with at least secondary school education, level of coarse soil fragments, and higher local sanitation coverage. Results from this study can be used by sanitation programs to improve the rates of initial and sustained adoption of sanitation.

Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study.

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million. These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.

Epidemiologic and Genomic Reidentification of Yaws, Liberia.

We confirmed endemicity and autochthonous transmission of yaws in Liberia after a population-based, community-led burden estimation (56,825 participants). Serologically confirmed yaws was rare and focal at population level (24 cases; 2.6 [95% CI 1.4-3.9] cases/10,000 population) with similar clinical epidemiology to other endemic countries in West Africa. Unsupervised classification of spatially referenced case finding data indicated that yaws was more likely to occur in hard-to-reach communities; healthcare-seeking was low among communities, and clinical awareness of yaws was low among healthcare workers. We recovered whole bacterial genomes from 12 cases and describe a monophyletic clade of Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue, phylogenetically distinct from known TPE lineages, including those affecting neighboring nonhuman primate populations (Taï Forest, Côte d'Ivoire). Yaws is endemic in Liberia but exhibits low focal population prevalence with evidence of a historical genetic bottleneck and subsequent local expansion. Reporting gaps appear attributable to challenging epidemiology and low disease awareness.

Individual adherence to mass drug administration in neglected tropical disease control: A probability model conditional on past behaviour.

We present a general framework which describes the systematic (binary) scenario of individuals either taking treatment or not for any reason, over the course of mass drug administration (MDA)-which we refer to as 'adherence' and 'non-adherence'. The probability models developed can be informed by observed adherence behaviour as well as employed to explore how different patterns influence the impact of MDA programmes, by the use of mathematical models of transmission and control. We demonstrate the interpretative value of the developed probability model employing a dataset collected in the TUMIKIA project, a randomised trial of deworming strategies to control soil-transmitted helminths (STH) by MDA conducted in coastal Kenya. We stratify our analysis by age and sex, although the framework which we introduce here may be readily adapted to accommodate other stratifications. Our findings include the detection of specific patterns of non-adherence in all age groups to varying extents. This is particularly apparent in men of ages 30+. We then demonstrate the use of the probability model in stochastic individual-based simulations by running two example forecasts for the elimination of STH transmission employing MDA within the TUMIKIA trial setting with different adherence patterns. This suggested a substantial reduction in the probability of elimination (between 23-43%) when comparing observed adherence patterns with an assumption of independence, with important implications for programmes. The results here demonstrate the considerable impact and utility of considering non-adherence on the success of MDA programmes to control neglected tropical diseases (NTDs).

Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets. METHODS: We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5-14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018. FINDINGS: We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5-14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Evaluating survey designs for targeting preventive chemotherapy against Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa: a geostatistical analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis control programmes primarily use school-based surveys to identify areas for mass drug administration of preventive chemotherapy. However, as the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis can be highly focal, transmission may not be detected by surveys implemented at districts or larger spatial units. Improved mapping strategies are required to accurately and cost-effectively target preventive chemotherapy to remaining foci across all possible spatial distributions of schistosomiasis. METHODS: Here, we use geostatistical models to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa using the most comprehensive dataset available on school-based surveys. Applying this information to parameterise simulations, we assess the accuracy and cost of targeting alternative implementation unit sizes across the range of plausible schistosomiasis distributions. We evaluate the consequences of decisions based on survey designs implemented at district and subdistrict levels sampling different numbers of schools. Cost data were obtained from field surveys conducted across multiple countries and years, with cost effectiveness evaluated as the cost per correctly identified school. RESULTS: Models identified marked differences in prevalence and spatial distributions between countries and species; however, results suggest implementing surveys at subdistrict level increase the accuracy of treatment classifications across most scenarios. While sampling intensively at the subdistrict level resulted in the highest classification accuracy, this sampling strategy resulted in the highest costs. Alternatively, sampling the same numbers of schools currently recommended at the district level but stratifying by subdistrict increased cost effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a new tool to evaluate schistosomiasis survey designs across a range of transmission settings. Results highlight the importance of considering spatial structure when designing sampling strategies, illustrating that a substantial proportion of children may be undertreated even when an implementation unit is correctly classified. Control programmes need to weigh the increased accuracy of more detailed mapping strategies against the survey costs and treatment priorities.

Patterns of individual non-treatment during multiple rounds of mass drug administration for control of soil-transmitted helminths in the TUMIKIA trial, Kenya: a secondary longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have been done of patterns of treatment during mass drug administration (MDA) to control neglected tropical diseases. We used routinely collected individual-level treatment records that had been collated for the Tuangamize Minyoo Kenya Imarisha Afya (Swahili for Eradicate Worms in Kenya for Better Health [TUMIKIA]) trial, done in coastal Kenya from 2015 to 2017. In this analysis we estimate the extent of and factors associated with the same individuals not being treated over multiple rounds of MDA, which we term systematic non-treatment. METHODS: We linked the baseline population of the TUMIKIA trial randomly assigned to receive biannual community-wide MDA for soil-transmitted helminthiasis to longitudinal records on receipt of treatment in any of the four treatment rounds of the study. We fitted logistic regression models to estimate the association of non-treatment in a given round with non-treatment in the previous round, controlling for identified predictors of non-treatment. We also used multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with part or no treatment versus complete treatment. FINDINGS: 36 327 participants were included in our analysis: 16 236 children aged 2-14 years and 20 091 adults aged 15 years or older. The odds of having no treatment recorded was higher if a participant was not treated during the previous round of MDA (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·60, 95% CI 3·08-4·20 for children and 5·58, 5·01-6·21 for adults). For children, school attendance and rural residence reduced the odds of receiving part or no treatment, whereas odds were increased by least poor socioeconomic status and living in an urban or periurban household. Women had higher odds than men of receiving part or no treatment. However, when those with pregnancy or childbirth in the previous 2 weeks were excluded, women became more likely to receive complete treatment. Adults aged 20-25 years were the age group with the highest odds of receiving part (OR 1·41, 95% CI 1·22-1·63) or no treatment (OR 1·81, 95% CI 1·53-2·14). INTERPRETATION: Non-treatment was associated with specific sociodemographic groups and characteristics and did not occcur at random. This finding has important implications for MDA programme effectiveness, the relevance of which will intensify as disease prevalence decreases and infections become increasingly clustered. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Joint Global Health Trials Scheme of the Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Children's Investment Fund Foundation, and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases.