The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses.

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus.

Phylodynamics for cell biologists.

Multicellular organisms are composed of cells connected by ancestry and descent from progenitor cells. The dynamics of cell birth, death, and inheritance within an organism give rise to the fundamental processes of development, differentiation, and cancer. Technical advances in molecular biology now allow us to study cellular composition, ancestry, and evolution at the resolution of individual cells within an organism or tissue. Here, we take a phylogenetic and phylodynamic approach to single-cell biology. We explain how "tree thinking" is important to the interpretation of the growing body of cell-level data and how ecological null models can benefit statistical hypothesis testing. Experimental progress in cell biology should be accompanied by theoretical developments if we are to exploit fully the dynamical information in single-cell data.

Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics.

A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.

First Complete Genome Sequences of Zika Virus Isolated from Febrile Patient Sera in Ecuador.

Here, we present the complete genome sequences of two Zika virus (ZIKV) strains, EcEs062_16 and EcEs089_16, isolated from the sera of febrile patients in Esmeraldas City, in the northern coastal province of Esmeraldas, Ecuador, in April 2016. These are the first complete ZIKV genomes to be reported from Ecuador.

Phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada.

UNLABELLED: Little is known about factors associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). Phylogenetic clustering and associated factors were evaluated among PWID in Vancouver, Canada. Data were derived from the Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study. Participants who were HCV antibody-positive at enrolment and those with HCV antibody seroconversion during follow-up (1996 to 2012) were tested for HCV RNA and sequenced (Core-E2 region). Phylogenetic trees were inferred using maximum likelihood analysis and clusters were identified using ClusterPicker (90% bootstrap threshold, 0.05 genetic distance threshold). Factors associated with clustering were assessed using logistic regression. Among 655 eligible participants, HCV genotype prevalence was: G1a: 48% (n=313), G1b: 6% (n=41), G2a: 3% (n=20), G2b: 7% (n=46), G3a: 33% (n=213), G4a: <1% (n=4), G6a: 1% (n=8), G6e: <1% (n=1), and unclassifiable: 1% (n=9). The mean age was 36 years, 162 (25%) were female, and 164 (25%) were HIV+. Among 501 participants with HCV G1a and G3a, 31% (n=156) were in a pair/cluster. Factors independently associated with phylogenetic clustering included: age <40 (versus age≥40, adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03, 2.63), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AOR=1.82; 95% CI 1.18, 2.81), HCV seroconversion (AOR=3.05; 95% CI 1.40, 6.66), and recent syringe borrowing (AOR 1.59; 95% CI 1.07, 2.36). CONCLUSION: In this sample of PWID, one-third demonstrated phylogenetic clustering. Factors independently associated with phylogenetic clustering included younger age, recent HCV seroconversion, prevalent HIV infection, and recent syringe borrowing. Strategies to enhance the delivery of prevention and/or treatment strategies to those with HIV and recent HCV seroconversion should be explored, given an increased likelihood of HCV transmission in these subpopulations.

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus adaptation to mammalian hosts.

Few questions on infectious disease are more important than understanding how and why avian influenza A viruses successfully emerge in mammalian populations, yet little is known about the rate and nature of the virus' genetic adaptation in new hosts. Here, we measure, for the first time, the genomic rate of adaptive evolution of swine influenza viruses (SwIV) that originated in birds. By using a curated dataset of more than 24 000 human and swine influenza gene sequences, including 41 newly characterized genomes, we reconstructed the adaptive dynamics of three major SwIV lineages (Eurasian, EA; classical swine, CS; triple reassortant, TR). We found that, following the transfer of the EA lineage from birds to swine in the late 1970s, EA virus genes have undergone substantially faster adaptive evolution than those of the CS lineage, which had circulated among swine for decades. Further, the adaptation rates of the EA lineage antigenic haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes were unexpectedly high and similar to those observed in human influenza A. We show that the successful establishment of avian influenza viruses in swine is associated with raised adaptive evolution across the entire genome for many years after zoonosis, reflecting the contribution of multiple mutations to the coordinated optimization of viral fitness in a new environment. This dynamics is replicated independently in the polymerase genes of the TR lineage, which established in swine following separate transmission from non-swine hosts.

Estimating reassortment rates in co-circulating Eurasian swine influenza viruses.

Swine have often been considered as a mixing vessel for different influenza strains. In order to assess their role in more detail, we undertook a retrospective sequencing study to detect and characterize the reassortants present in European swine and to estimate the rate of reassortment between H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes with Eurasian (avian-like) internal protein-coding segments. We analysed 69 newly obtained whole genome sequences of subtypes H1N1-H3N2 from swine influenza viruses sampled between 1982 and 2008, using Illumina and 454 platforms. Analyses of these genomes, together with previously published genomes, revealed a large monophyletic clade of Eurasian swine-lineage polymerase segments containing H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes. We subsequently examined reassortments between the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase segments and estimated the reassortment rates between lineages using a recently developed evolutionary analysis method. High rates of reassortment between H1N2 and H1N1 Eurasian swine lineages were detected in European strains, with an average of one reassortment every 2-3 years. This rapid reassortment results from co-circulating lineages in swine, and in consequence we should expect further reassortments between currently circulating swine strains and the recent swine-origin H1N1v pandemic strain.

The ecology and age structure of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreak in wild mute swans.

The first UK epizootic of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 influenza in wild birds occurred in 2008, in a population of mute swans that had been the subject of ornithological study for decades. Here we use an innovative combination of ornithological, phylogenetic and immunological approaches to investigate the ecology and age structure of HP H5N1 in nature. We screened samples from swans and waterbirds using PCR and sequenced HP H5N1-positive samples. The outbreak's origin was investigated by linking bird count data with a molecular clock analysis of sampled virus sequences. We used ringing records to reconstruct the age-structure of outbreak mortality, and we estimated the age distribution of prior exposure to avian influenza. Outbreak mortality was low and all HP H5N1-positive mute swans in the affected population were <3 years old. Only the youngest age classes contained an appreciable number of individuals with no detectable antibody responses to viral nucleoprotein. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the outbreak strain circulated locally for ~1 month before detection and arrived when the immigration rate of migrant waterbirds was highest. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that HP H5N1 epizootics in wild swans exhibit limited mortality due to immune protection arising from previous exposure. Our study population may represent a valuable resource for investigating the natural ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza.

Measuring the Temporal Structure in Serially-Sampled Phylogenies.

Nucleotide sequences sampled at different times (serially-sampled sequences) allow researchers to study the rate of evolutionary change and the demographic history of populations. Some phylogenies inferred from serially-sampled sequences are described as having strong 'temporal clustering', such that sequences from the same sampling time tend to to cluster together and to be the direct ancestors of sequences from the following sampling time. The degree to which phylogenies exhibit these properties is thought to reflect interesting biological processes, such as positive selection or deviation from the molecular clock hypothesis.Here we introduce the Temporal Clustering (TC) statistic, which is the first quantitative measure of the degree of topological 'temporal clustering' in a serially-sampled phylogeny. The TC statistic represents the expected deviation of an observed phylogeny from the null hypothesis of no temporal clustering, as a proportion of the range of possible values, and can therefore be compared among phylogeny of different sizes.We apply the TC statistic to a range of serially-sampled sequence datasets, which represent both rapidly-evolving viruses and ancient mitochondrial DNA. In addition, the TC statistic was calculated for phylogenies simulated under a neutral coalescent process.Our results indicate significant temporal clustering in many empirical datasets. However, we also find that such clustering is exhibited by trees simulated under a neutral coalescent process; hence the observation of significant 'temporal clustering' cannot unambiguously indicate that presence of strong positive selection in a population.Quantifying topological structure in this manner will provide new insights into the evolution of measurably evolving populations.

New trends of HCV infection in China revealed by genetic analysis of viral sequences determined from first-time volunteer blood donors.

Recently, we studied hepatitis C virus (HCV) sera-prevalence among 559 890 first-time volunteer blood donors in China. From randomly selected 450 anti-HCV positive donors, we detected HCV RNA in 270 donors. In this study, we amplified HCV E1 and/or NS5B sequences from 236 of these donors followed by DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results indicate new trends of HCV infection in China. The HCV genotype distribution differed according to the donors' region of origin. Among donors from Guangdong province, we detected subtypes 6a, 1b, 3a, 3b, 2a, and 1a at frequencies of 49.7%, 31.0%, 7.6%, 5.5%, 4.1%, and 2.1%, respectively. Among donors from outside Guangdong, we detected 1b, 2a, 6a, 3b, 3a, 6e, and 6n at frequencies 57.1%, 13.2%, 11.0%, 9.9%, 4.4%, 2.2%, and 2.2%, respectively. Although we found no significant differences among regions in age or gender, subtype 6a was more common (P < 0.001) in donors from Guangdong than those from elsewhere, whilst subtypes 1b (P < 0.02) and 2a (P < 0.001) were more frequent outside Guangdong. Disregarding origins, the male/female ratio was higher for subtype 6a-infected donors (P < 0.05) than for subtype 1b donors, whilst the mean age of subtype 2a donors was 8-10 years older (P < 0.05) than that for all other subtypes. Detailed phylogenetic analysis of our sequence data provides further insight into the transmission of HCV within China, and between China and other countries. The predominance of HCV 6a among blood donors in Guangdong is striking and mandates studies into risk factors for its acquisition.

Epidemic dynamics revealed in dengue evolution.

Dengue is an emerging tropical disease infecting tens of millions of people annually. A febrile illness with potentially severe hemorrhagic manifestations, dengue is caused by mosquito-borne viruses (DENV-1 to -4) that are maintained in endemic transmission in large urban centers of the tropics with periodic epidemic cycles at 3- to 5-year intervals. Puerto Rico (PR), a major population center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly severe epidemics since multiple dengue serotypes were introduced beginning in the late 1970s. We document the phylodynamics of DENV-4 between 1981 and 1998, a period of dramatic ecological expansion during which evolutionary change also occurs. The timescale of viral evolution is sufficiently short that viral transmission dynamics can be elucidated from genetic diversity data. Specifically, by combining virus sequence data with confirmed case counts in PR over these two decades, we show that the pattern of cyclic epidemics is strongly correlated with coalescent estimates of effective population size that have been estimated from sampled virus sequences using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Thus, we show that the observed epidemiologic dynamics are correlated with similar fluctuations in diversity, including severe interepidemic reductions in genetic diversity compatible with population bottlenecks that may greatly impact DENV evolutionary dynamics. Mean effective population sizes based on genetic data appear to increase prior to isolation counts, suggesting a potential bias in the latter and justifying more active surveillance of DENV activity. Our analysis explicitly integrates epidemiologic and sequence data in a joint model that could be used to further explore transmission models of infectious disease.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection and predominance of genotype 4 in rural Gabon.

Hepatitis C (HCV) molecular epidemiology is documented poorly in central African countries. In response to this, a population-based study of 319 consenting adults resident in a remote village of Gabon was undertaken (mean age: 38 years; age range: 13-85+; sex ratio: 0.74). Screening for anti-HCV antibodies was performed using ELISA and recombinant immunoblot assay. Seropositive samples were assessed further with viral load and genotyping techniques. Sixty-six (20.7%) individuals were HCV seropositive. Viral loads ranged from 600 to 24.9 million IU/ml (median: 372,500). Seroprevalence and viral loads increased significantly with age (P < 10(-5) and P < 0.003, respectively). HCV sequences of the 5'UTR genome region were obtained from 60 (90.9%) samples and NS5B region sequences were obtained from 22 (36.6%) samples. All strains belonged to subtypes of genotype 4: 4e (72.7%), 4c (13.6%), 4p (4.5%), 4r (4.5%) and one unclassified genotype 4 strain. Evolutionary analysis of the subtype 4e sequences indicates a period of raised transmission during the early twentieth century.

Impact of HIV on host-virus interactions during early hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) may influence the outcome and natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection through an impact on acute HCV-specific T cell responses. METHODS: Fifty-five HIV-positive males with acute HCV infection were identified; monoinfected individuals (n = 8) were used for peripheral blood mononuclear cell comparison. In 14 coinfected and 8 HCV-monoinfected patients, HCV-specific T cell responses against a range of HCV antigens were assessed using interferon (IFN)-gamma enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) and proliferation assays. E1/E2 region genetic diversity and the selection pressure on the virus were measured in 8 coinfected patients by use of cloned sequences over time. RESULTS: HCV persisted in 52 (95%) coinfected individuals. HCV/HIV coinfection significantly reduced IFN-gamma ELISpot responses versus those in HCV-monoinfected individuals, especially against nonstructural proteins (1/10 vs. 5/8; P = .008). In coinfected patients, increased HCV genetic diversity was observed between the first and subsequent time points, with no evidence for positive selection in the E1/E2 region sequenced. CONCLUSION: HIV coinfection is associated with increased rates of HCV persistence and a lack of critical CD4 T cell responses, with no evidence of immune selection pressure during early HCV infection. Loss of key cellular immune responses against HCV during acute disease may contribute to the failure of early host control of HCV in HCV/HIV-coinfected patients.

Evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus envelope gene is dominated by purifying selection.

The evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) during chronic infection involves the rapid, continuous turnover of genetic diversity. However, the role of natural selection, relative to random genetic drift, in governing this process is unclear. We tested a stochastic model of genetic drift using partial envelope sequences sampled longitudinally in 28 infected children. In each case the Bayesian posterior (empirical) distribution of coalescent genealogies was estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Posterior predictive simulation was then used to generate a null distribution of genealogies assuming neutrality, with the null and empirical distributions compared using four genealogy-based summary statistics sensitive to nonneutral evolution. Because both null and empirical distributions were generated within a coalescent framework, we were able to explicitly account for the confounding influence of demography. From the distribution of corrected P-values across patients, we conclude that empirical genealogies are more asymmetric than expected if evolution is driven by mutation and genetic drift only, with an excess of low-frequency polymorphisms in the population. This indicates that although drift may still play an important role, natural selection has a strong influence on the evolution of HIV-1 envelope. A negative relationship between effective population size and substitution rate indicates that as the efficacy of selection increases, a smaller proportion of mutations approach fixation in the population. This suggests the presence of deleterious mutations. We therefore conclude that intrahost HIV-1 evolution in envelope is dominated by purifying selection against low-frequency deleterious mutations that do not reach fixation.

Do antiviral CD8+ T cells select hepatitis C virus escape mutants? Analysis in diverse epitopes targeted by human intrahepatic CD8+ T lymphocytes.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a variable RNA virus that can readily establish persistent infection. Cellular immune responses are important in the early control of the virus. Evidence from animal models suggests that mutation in epitopes recognized by CD8+ T lymphocytes may play an important role in the establishment of persistence but in human persistent infection, equivalent evidence is lacking. We investigated this by analysing a unique resource: viruses from a set of chronically HCV-infected individuals in whom the CD8+ T-cell responses in liver had previously been accurately mapped. Virus was sequenced in seven individuals at 10 epitopes restricted by 10 human leucocyte antigen (HLA) molecules. Two main patterns emerged: in the majority of epitopes sequenced, no variation was seen. In three epitopes, mutations were identified which were compatible with immune escape as assessed using phylogenetic and/or functional studies. These data suggest that - even where specific intrahepatic T cells are detectable - many epitopes do not undergo mutation in chronic human infection. On the contrary, virus may escape from intrahepatic CD8+ T-cell responses in a 'patchy' manner in certain specific epitopes. Furthermore, longitudinal studies to identify the differences between 'selecting' and 'nonselecting' intrahepatic CD8+ T-cell responses are needed in HCV infection.

Bayesian coalescent inference of past population dynamics from molecular sequences.

We introduce the Bayesian skyline plot, a new method for estimating past population dynamics through time from a sample of molecular sequences without dependence on a prespecified parametric model of demographic history. We describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure that efficiently samples a variant of the generalized skyline plot, given sequence data, and combines these plots to generate a posterior distribution of effective population size through time. We apply the Bayesian skyline plot to simulated data sets and show that it correctly reconstructs demographic history under canonical scenarios. Finally, we compare the Bayesian skyline plot model to previous coalescent approaches by analyzing two real data sets (hepatitis C virus in Egypt and mitochondrial DNA of Beringian bison) that have been previously investigated using alternative coalescent methods. In the bison analysis, we detect a severe but previously unrecognized bottleneck, estimated to have occurred 10,000 radiocarbon years ago, which coincides with both the earliest undisputed record of large numbers of humans in Alaska and the megafaunal extinctions in North America at the beginning of the Holocene.

Historical demography of Mullerian mimicry in the neotropical Heliconius butterflies.

We compare the historical demographies of two Müllerian comimetic butterfly species: Heliconius erato and Heliconius melpomene. These species show an extensive parallel geographic divergence in their aposematic wing phenotypes. Recent studies suggest that this coincident mosaic results from simultaneous demographic processes shaped by extrinsic forces over Pleistocene climate fluctuations. However, DNA sequence variation at two rapidly evolving unlinked nuclear loci, Mannose phosphate isomerase (Mpi) and Triose phosphate isomerase (Tpi), show that the comimetic species have quite different quaternary demographies. In H. erato, despite ongoing lineage sorting across the Andes, nuclear genealogical estimates showed little geographical structure, suggesting high historical gene flow. Coalescent-based demographic analysis revealed population growth since the Pliocene period. Although these patterns suggest vicariant population subdivision associated with the Andean orogeny, they are not consistent with hypotheses of Pleistocene population fragmentation facilitating allopatric wing phenotype radiation in H. erato. In contrast, nuclear genetic diversity, theta, in H. melpomene was reduced relative to its comimic and revealed three phylogeographical clades. The pattern of coalescent events within regional clades was most consistent with population growth in relatively isolated populations after a recent period of restricted population size. These different demographic histories suggest that the wing-pattern radiations were not coincident in the two species. Instead, larger effective population size (N(e)) in H. erato, together with profound population change in H. melpomene, supports an earlier hypothesis that H. erato diversified first as the model species of this remarkable mimetic association.

Genetic structure of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa in the northeast Atlantic revealed by microsatellites and internal transcribed spacer sequences.

The azooxanthellate scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa has a near-cosmopolitan distribution, with a main depth distribution between 200 and 1000 m. In the northeast Atlantic it is the main framework-building species, forming deep-sea reefs in the bathyal zone on the continental margin, offshore banks and in Scandinavian fjords. Recent studies have shown that deep-sea reefs are associated with a highly diverse fauna. Such deep-sea communities are subject to increasing impact from deep-water fisheries, against a background of poor knowledge concerning these ecosystems, including the biology and population structure of L. pertusa. To resolve the population structure and to assess the dispersal potential of this deep-sea coral, specific microsatellites markers and ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences ITS1 and ITS2 were used to investigate 10 different sampling sites, distributed along the European margin and in Scandinavian fjords. Both microsatellite and gene sequence data showed that L. pertusa should not be considered as one panmictic population in the northeast Atlantic but instead forms distinct, offshore and fjord populations. Results also suggest that, if some gene flow is occurring along the continental slope, the recruitment of sexually produced larvae is likely to be strongly local. The microsatellites showed significant levels of inbreeding and revealed that the level of genetic diversity and the contribution of asexual reproduction to the maintenance of the subpopulations were highly variable from site to site. These results are of major importance in the generation of a sustainable management strategy for these diversity-rich deep-sea ecosystems.